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Energy & Power Industry Update Energy & Power Industry Update November 2011 Member FINRA/SIPC www.harriswilliams.com Energy & Power Industry Update November 2011 What We’ve Been Reading • Nancy Pfund, a Managing Partner of DBL Investors, and Ben Healey asked a question we find ourselves asking all too often in Virginia, What Would Jefferson Do?. While this general question can be applied in any number of contexts (e.g., drafting a declaration, establishing a state university, selecting the right wine with dinner), Pfund and Healey pose the question in reference to a rather specific topic, “The Historical Role of Federal Subsidies in Shaping America‟s Energy Future.” Through their research of a wide range of historical data, they attempt to tackle the challenge of comparing energy subsidies on an apples-to-apples basis by focusing on historical subsidies that had an impact as a particular energy source emerged. The results are not particularly surprising – historical government subsidies for oil, gas, and nuclear far exceeded those currently (and recently) in place for renewables. • Harold Hamm, the founder and CEO of Continental Resources (and the original discoverer of the Bakken oil fields), seems to offer a rebuttal to the point above in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, stating, “We can‟t come anywhere near the scale of energy production to achieve energy independence by pouring tax dollars into „green energy‟ sources like wind and solar. It has to come from oil and gas.” Interview topics range from U.S. oil and gas potential to the current regulatory landscape to the potential royalty stream the federal government could realize if federal lands were open to exploration (Hamm estimates $18 trillion, or more than the U.S. national debt). • In “The Fallout – Seven months later: Japan‟s nuclear predicament” (subscription required), The New Yorker’s Evan Osnos explores Japan‟s tangled relationship with nuclear power with a detailed retelling of the events in March, their aftermath, and the potential implications for nuclear power in Japan and abroad. Osnos writes, “On balance, the Fukushima disaster handed no easy victories to either side of the nuclear debate: defenders can no longer pretend to have engineered away the risks of generating a billion watts in a concrete building, and opponents cannot easily suggest that a meltdown will produce the huge number of immediate casualties that the public imagines. Even after Fukushima, several influential environmentalists have renewed their contention that nuclear power is an unavoidable part of weaning the planet from the burning of fossil fuels.” • The U.S. Department of Energy (“DOE”) released its first Quadrennial Technology Review (“QTR”), which was launched at the recommendation of President Obama‟s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Introducing the report, Secretary of Energy Stephen Chu writes, “Traditionally, the Department‟s strategy has been organized along individual program lines and based on annual budgets. With this QTR, we bind together multiple energy technologies, as well as multiple DOE energy technology programs, in the common purpose of solving our energy problems. In addition, the QTR provides a multi-year framework for our planning. Energy investments are multi-year, multi-decade investments. Given this time horizon, we need to take a longer view.” While the U.S. may be no closer to a formal energy policy, it at least appears to be organizing its resources more holistically and efficiently. page 1 Energy & Power Industry Update November 2011 Industry Observations • The Energy, Power, and Infrastructure and Industrial Services indices rebounded following increased turbulence in August and September. • The North American rotary rig count continued its climb, again setting a new three-year high water mark. • Third quarter M&A activity experienced a slight decline as the macroeconomic circumstances added an additional element of uncertainty to many processes. • Commodity prices have stabilized following late-summer declines. LTM Indexed Stock Performance1 150 140 130 % 120 Index Change 110 S&P 5.78 100 Energy 12.93 90 Power (3.83) 80 I & IS 8.80 70 60 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 S&P 500 Energy Power Industrial & Infrastructure Services IndexedLTM EBITDALTM EBITDA Multiples Multiples1 1 300 250 % 200 Index Change Energy 52.02 150 Power 1.51 100 I & IS 97.97 50 0 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Energy Power Industrial & Infrastructure Services page 2 Energy & Power Industry Update November 2011 Key Trading Statistics1 Stock Price % Change TEV / LTM EBITDA Multiple as of TEV / 2011 P/E Ratio Industry Segment 1 Month 12 Month 10/25/10 4/25/11 Current EBITDA Current 2009 Energy Integrateds 16.1% 11.1% 4.8x 5.3x 4.3x 3.8x 9.2x 8.6x Energy Services and Equipment 13.8% 7.8% 8.9x 10.1x 7.7x 5.2x 19.7x 9.1x Exploration and Production 14.0% 0.8% 6.8x 9.6x 8.0x 5.1x 20.3x 13.1x Coal Producers 9.0% (29.0%) 9.3x 9.2x 7.3x 4.3x 11.8x 10.5x Refining 13.1% 35.2% 8.3x 7.8x 5.1x 3.2x NM 5.6x Storage & Transportation 10.1% 9.2% 13.8x 14.1x 14.6x 10.7x 21.9x 18.8x Power Diversified Power 16.4% (12.0%) 10.1x 10.3x 8.1x 7.3x 13.8x 11.2x Mid-Cap Power 18.1% 7.6% 8.3x 9.7x 7.5x 6.5x 15.6x 12.9x Independent Power Producers (1.1%) 0.7% 7.1x 11.7x 9.5x 7.7x 15.1x 21.6x Electric Utilities 1.7% 10.0% 7.9x 8.7x 9.0x 8.2x 13.1x 14.0x TEV / LTM Revenue 2011 Revenue Renewables (2.4%) (26.2%) 1.4x 1.4x 0.9x 0.7x 9.4x 6.9x Cleantech (11.0%) (53.3%) 1.7x 1.3x 0.8x 0.8x 12.5x 12.1x Industrial & Infrastructure Services Engineering & Construction 14.6% (0.0%) 7.4x 10.2x 7.8x 5.6x 16.0x 12.5x Industrial & Infrastructure Services 19.3% 8.5% 8.5x 10.5x 8.0x 6.6x 17.5x 12.4x Current Valuations Versus Historical 5-Year Average1 200.0% 200.0%180.0% 180.0%160.0% 160.0%140.0% 140.0%120.0% 120.0%100.0% 5-Year 100.0% 80.0% Average 80.0% 60.0% 60.0% 40.0% 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% Storage Electric Independent Industrial & Refining Exploration Integrateds Engineering Mid-Cap Energy Coal Diversified Cleantech Renewables 0.0% and Utilities Power Infrastructure and and Power Services and Producers Power Transportation EnegyProducers Services Production PowerConstruction Equipment Industrial & Infrastructure Services Enegy Power Industrial & Infrastructure Services Note: Based upon current EV / LTM EBITDA versus 5-year historical average. For Cleantech and Renewables, valuation is based upon EV / LTM Sales. page 3 120.00 6.00 100.00 5.00 80.00 4.00 60.00 3.00 40.00 ($ per ($bbl) 2.00 20.00 per MMBtu) ($ 1.00 0.00 0.00 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jan Jun Oct Oct Jan Jun Oct Oct Feb Sep Feb Sep Apr Apr Dec Dec Mar Nov Aug Aug Mar Nov May May $73.47 per ton $73.47 U.S. Rig Counts U.S. CAPP: Coal Oil $117.65 per ton $117.65 Rotterdam: Rotterdam: 3,000 1 1 3.75 2,500 3.00 2,000 3 2.25 per$91.27 bbl 1,500 2,488 rigs 2,488 (# rigs)(# 1.50 1,000 500 per gallon)($ 0.75 0 0.00 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 - 11 - - - - - - - - - - - - Energy & Power Industry& Power Update Energy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jan Jun Oct Oct Feb Sep Apr Jan Dec Jun Oct Sep Feb Sep Aug Apr Mar Nov Dec Aug Aug May Mar Nov May Gasoline Ethanol Gasoline and Ethanol andGasoline Electricity Electricity Prices $2.67 per $2.67gallon 100.00 Gas Natural 100.0 160.0 80.00 80.0 120.0 Central 60.0 2011 November - 60.00 80.0 Rotterdam) - 40.0 40.00 per $3.92MMBtu $41.25 per$41.25 MWg 40.0 Appalachian) 20.0 ($ per MWg)($ $2.59 per $2.59gallon 1 20.00 ($ per ton ($ 0.0 0.0 1 ($ per ($ton 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 0.00 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 - Jul - - - - - - - - - - - - Jan Jun Oct Oct Feb Sep Apr Dec Aug Mar Nov May page 4 page Jul Jan Jun Oct Oct Feb Sep Apr Dec Aug Mar Nov Central Appalachian Rotterdam May Energy & Power Industry Update November 2011 Select Recently Announced Energy & Power Transactions1,2 Date Target Business Description Acquirer 10/18/2011 Oil Lift Technology, Inc. Canada based manufacturer of progressive cavity pump Dover Corporation products for the artificial lift market 10/17/2011 TEC, Inc. US based provider of environmental management Cardno Limited consulting services 10/13/2011 Kline Oilfield Equipment, Inc. US based manufacturer of completion and workover Logan International Inc. tools used in the oil and gas industry 10/12/2011 Rising Star Services, Inc.
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