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Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in Awash River Basin: a Case of Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia

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Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in Awash River Basin: a Case of Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia DSpace Institution DSpace Repository http://dspace.org Hydraulic engineering Thesis 2020 HYDROLOGICAL MODELING OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN AWASH RIVER BASIN: A CASE OF BORKENA RIVER CATCHMENT, ETHIOPIA KIFLE, TESHOME http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/11656 Downloaded from DSpace Repository, DSpace Institution's institutional repository BAHIR DAR UNIVERSITY BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY SCHOOL OF RESEARCH AND POSTGRADUATE STUDIES CIVIL AND WATER RESOURCE ENGINEERING FACULTY HYDROLOGICAL MODELING OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN AWASH RIVER BASIN: A CASE OF BORKENA RIVER CATCHMENT, ETHIOPIA BY TESHOME KIFLE WONDIE Bahir Dar, Ethiopia AUGUST, 2020 HYDROLOGICAL MODELING OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS INAWASH RIVER BASIN: A CASE OF BORKENA RIVER CATCHMENT, ETHIOPIA. BY TESHOME KIFLE WONDIE Email- [email protected] MSc Thesis Submitted to School of Graduate Studies of Bahir Dar University, Institute of Technology in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Masters of Science in Hydraulic Engineering in the Civil and Water Resource Engineering. Advisor Name: Dr. Mamaru A. Moges CO- Advisor Name: Dr. Dejne Sahilu Bahir Dar, Ethiopia AUGUST, 2020 DECLARATION i © 2020 TESHOME KIFLE WONDIE ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, thanks to the Almighty God for granting me his limitless care, love, and blessings all along the way. And I would like to convey my deep-hearted appreciation to Woldia University for providing me financial support for the academic admission to attend this MSc Program at Bahir Dar University. I have special and truthful gratitude to my advisor Dr.Mamaru Ayalew, for his encouragement, insight guidance, and professional expertise to clear out my doubts and I am deeply besieged in his tireless help and assistance for the overall success of this study. Secondly, my special thanks go to my Co-advisor Dr.Dejne sahilu for his inspiration, guidance, and valuable suggestions that led to the start and completion of this thesis work. He has provided me invaluable support starting from giving me materials, documents and related information about the study. Correspondingly I would like to acknowledge the Ethiopian Meteorological Agency, Ministry of Water Resources, for providing the required data and information to fulfill this research work during data collection. Finally, I would like to express my deep feeling of appreciation and thank my family and friends who are always encouraging and rendering me the necessary services and are taking care of some of my responsibilities. iv ABSTRACT Regional and local hydrological regimes are expressively exposed to global climate change, which is considered to be one of the major problems threating water resources and flood security. This research has been done aimed at the examination of the effect of climate change on the hydrology of Borkena watershed, Awash River Basin during 2030s (2021-2040), 2050s (2040-2060), and 2070s (2061-2080) future periods. To realize this, the distributed hydrological SWAT Model driven by three different Global Circulation Models (MIROC5, MPI, and IPSL) under two Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) was used. As result, the GCM projection indicated that, the mean annual maximum and minimum temperature projected to increases by 0.56°c and 0.31°c respectively while the mean annual rainfall has no a significant change in the coming decades. The study also resulted in a considerable average monthly and seasonal, rainfall change in magnitude and direction. Relative to the baseline period the changes in mean annual stream flow from (2021-2080) are mostly negative and indicate a reduction in volume of discharge available in the Borkena river. In addition, trends in the extreme flow are also determined for high and low flows and the results show a forceful negative trend for extreme stream flows and flood volumes may decrease by 43.1% in RCP4.5 under MPI (2021–2040), 38.6% (2041–2060) and 49.4% (2061–2080) in RCP8.5 under IPSL and MIROC5 respectively. These findings will serve as a nearly warning for the alarming extreme weather events for the future period in Borkena watershed as well as Awash River basin which require sustainable and effective adaptive measures for future water resource management. Key words: Climate Change, SWAT, CORDEX Awash, Borkena v Table of Contents DECLARATION ............................................................................................................ i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................ iv ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... v LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................... xi LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................... xiv LIST OF ABBREVATIONS ...................................................................................... xvi 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background of the Study ..................................................................................... 1 1.2. Statement of the problem .................................................................................... 3 1.3. Objective of the study ......................................................................................... 4 1.3.1. General Objective ......................................................................................... 4 1.3.2. Specific objectives ........................................................................................ 4 1.4. Research question ................................................................................................ 4 1.5. Scope of the Study ............................................................................................... 5 1.6. Significance of the Study .................................................................................... 5 1.7. Thesis structure ................................................................................................... 5 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................... 6 2.1. Climate Change ................................................................................................... 6 2.2. Climate Change and Water Resources in Ethiopia ............................................. 6 2.3. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) .................................................. 7 2.3.1. RCP2.6 (mitigation scenario) ....................................................................... 7 2.3.2. RCP4.5 (stabilization scenario) .................................................................... 8 2.3.3. RCP6 (stabilization scenario) ....................................................................... 8 2.3.4. RCP8.5 (high emission scenario) ................................................................. 9 vi 2.4. Global Climate Models ....................................................................................... 9 2.5. Regional Climate Models .................................................................................... 9 2.6. Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) ............ 10 2.7. Downscaling Climate Models ........................................................................... 10 2.7.1. Dynamical downscaling ............................................................................. 11 2.7.2. Statistical downscaling ............................................................................... 11 2.8. Bias correcting climate models ......................................................................... 12 2.9. Baseline scenario ............................................................................................... 13 2.10. Previous climate studies in the Awash River Basin ........................................ 14 2.11. Hydrological modeling .................................................................................... 17 2.12. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) ..................................................... 18 2.12.1. Hydrologic components of the SWAT model .......................................... 18 2.12.2. Surface runoff ........................................................................................... 19 2.12.3. Routing ..................................................................................................... 20 2.12.4. Peak Runoff Rate ...................................................................................... 20 2.12.5. Potential Evapotranspiration ..................................................................... 20 2.12.6. Groundwater ............................................................................................. 21 3. MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY ................................................................. 22 3.1. Study area description ....................................................................................... 22 3.1.1. Location of the study area .......................................................................... 22 3.1.2. Elevations and topography ......................................................................... 23 3.1.3. Climate.......................................................................................................
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