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NOAA,NWS,CBRFC www.cbrfc.noaa.gov B.Bernard 2014

February weather

Soil moisture

Current snowpack conditions

2017 Water supply forecasts overview

March forecast error – Better than February?

Upcoming weather – Potential impacts to water supply forecasts

Contacts & Questions

* Please mute your phone until ready to ask questions * February Weather

very warm significant moisture southwest flow

colder systems last week of month continued storminess

San Francisco State University Satellite Image Archive February Weather

SNOTEL precipitation rankings February 2017

Many SNOTEL locations had record or near record precipitation for the month of February (35-39 years of record most sites).

Bear River SNOTEL Group Snow Water Equivalent (12 sites)

9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 2017 4.0 median 3.0 2.0 1.0

Snow Water Equivalent (in) 0.0 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb 1-Mar

Most of these sites also have record precipitation for the water year to date (October-February). Those that aren’t record are in the top 2-3. February Weather Precipitation

February Precipitation: Seasonal Precipitation: Bear: 230% Bear: 180% Weber: 190% Weber: 155% Six Creeks: 180% Six Creeks: 140% Provo/UT Lake: 185% Provo/UT Lake: 160% February Weather Temperature

Tony Grove Lake SNOTEL Instantaneous Temperature daily maximum temperatures 10+ degrees above normal

1981-2010 average max

1981-2010 average min Soil Moisture Impacts Model Soil Moisture entering Winter

Soil Moisture – Fall – 2016 (November 16) (Modeled, Averaged by Basin) Water Supply Impacts: Wet September & October • Early season forecasts higher/lower by 3-10% of average

• Significant snowpack, like this year, lessens the impacts of dry soils on spring runoff

• Significant snowpack + wet soils could see more enhanced spring runoff

**This is a representation of above / below average soil moisture conditions prior to snowmelt

Soil Moisture Impacts Current Model Soil Saturation

EXPLANATION Model Soil Moisture – Inches to Saturation March 5, 2017 CURRENT CONDITIONS Model representation of where Lower elevations of the Bear River areas are becoming saturated. Basin in northern Utah and southern Idaho are saturated Primary use (dark green): according to the model. • Indicates where efficient runoff is likely in the near • This is supported by NRCS future due to snowmelt soil moisture sensors. and/or rainfall (dark green areas). • This area has already experienced some flooding Large deficits (red/orange): issues and will continue to • Areas under snowpack experience very efficient where significant melt has runoff through the spring. not begun. Red is normal this time of year.

**Not a representation of above / below average soil moisture conditions

Snow Conditions Snow Water Equivalent % Median SNOTEL CBRFC Model March 5, 2017 Snow Conditions Snow Water Equivalent Percentile Ranking SNOTEL March 5, 2017 Ranking based on where current observation falls in the historical record: • Black squares indicate record SWE for this time of year. • Dark blue squares indicate SWE in top 2-3. • Aqua squares are generally ranked 4th on record.

Most SNOTEL sites have historical records of 34-39 years, but some are shorter.

Franklin Basin SNOTEL record begins 1982

Tony Grove Lake SNOTEL record begins 1979

Beaver Divide SNOTEL record begins 1979

Brighton SNOTEL record begins 1987 Snowbird SNOTEL record begins 1990 8,085 ft 8,280 ft

9,990 ft 8,750 ft

Historical record began 1987 Big Cottonwood Ck April-July volumes: #1) 2011 – 62 kaf #14) 2005 – 46 kaf March 1st Water Supply Forecasts – Bear River Basin ~40% of average increase in forecasts since Feb 1st Stewart Dam Smiths Fork

192%

305%

Logan River April-July 198%* Forecast Streamflow Volumes (% of 1981-2010 average)

256% Blacksmiths Fork Little Bear 247%** Bear Above Woodruff Narrows 178%

157% *Forecasting near record volume Bear **Forecasting record volume Stateline Forecast Evolution Plot – Bear River @ Utah/Wyoming Stateline

10% Daily Model 30% Exceedance Guidance 50% 70% probabilities 90% Basically no chance of not exceeding average runoff volume this year

176 kaf / 157%

160 kaf / 143%

126 kaf / 112%

Plots are available at: https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Select WATER SUPPLY from the top menu Click on desired location for pop-up, click again for full screen Forecast Evolution Plot – Little Bear at Paradise

106 kaf Forecasting April-July volume 10 kaf above historical record (~70 years of record).

116 kaf / 247%

89 kaf / 189%

53 kaf / 113% March 1st Water Supply Forecasts – Weber River Basin

South Fork Ogden 20 - 40% of average increase in forecasts since Feb 1st

235% Pineview Inflow 214% 254% Lost Creek Inflow

192%

April-July Forecast Weber-Gateway Streamflow Volumes (% of 1981-2010 average)

Echo 164% 156% 181% East Canyon Weber Inflow Chalk Creek Coalville 157%

139%

Rockport Weber-Oakley Inflow 149% Forecast Evolution Plot – Ogden near Pineview Reservoir

300 kaf ~30% chance of exceeding the historical record volume.

Current forecast would be 2nd highest volume on record (~80 years). 265 kaf / 235% 230 kaf / 204%

126 kaf / 112% Forecast Evolution Plot – Weber River near Oakley

164 kaf / 139% 152 kaf / 129%

124 kaf / 105% March 1st Water Supply Forecasts – Six Creeks ~10% of average increase in forecasts since Feb 1st

City Creek 112%

116% Red Butte 163% 131% Emigration Little Dell Inflow

133% Parleys April-July Creek 128% Forecast Lambs Streamflow Volumes Creek (% of 1981-2010 average) 109% Mill Creek

131% Big Cottonwood

137% Little Cottonwood Forecast Evolution Plot – Little Cottonwood Creek

52 kaf / 137%

48 kaf / 126%

39 kaf / 103% March 1st Water Supply Forecasts – Provo River / Utah Lake

American Fork Provo Hailstone West Canyon Creek 168% 171% 179% Provo 193% Woodland 217% Deer Creek Inflow

April-July Forecast Streamflow Volumes (% of 1981-2010 average)

200% Utah Lake Inflow

175% Spanish Fork

20 - 40% of average increase in forecasts since Feb 1st Forecast Evolution Plot – Provo River near Woodland

168 kaf / 168% 148 kaf / 148%

110 kaf / 110% Forecast Validation: How good are forecasts in March?

Historical Water Supply Verification - March Historical Model Error % Model Error for March 1981-2010 April-July Forecast

Generally not as big of an improvement from February to Logan River: March as there is January to February Feb: 22% Mar: 19% - March can be a pivotal month

Little Bear River: Forecasts are better than just going with average Feb: 28% Mar: 26%

Error tends to decrease each month into the spring, especially from this point forward Bear River: Where We Do Better: Feb: 20% Mar: 18 Headwaters Primarily snow melt basins Known diversions / demands Weber River: Feb: 19% Mar: 17% Where We Do Worse: Lower elevations (rain or early melt) Little Cottonwood: Feb: 17% Mar: 18% Downstream of diversions / irrigation Provo River: Little is known about diversions / demands Feb: 20% Mar: 16%

Map is available at: https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/arc/verif/verif.php

From Water Supply drop down menu à select Historical Verification Map March Weather: Precipitation so far…. Upcoming Weather and Impacts to Water Supply Forecasts Westerly flow over the area with storm track to the north This morning 3/7/17 Upcoming Weather and Impacts to Water Supply Forecasts Westerly flow continues over the area with storm systems displaced north. Increasingly mild air mass with temperatures 5-15 degrees above average for this time of year Thu Mar 9th 2017 Upcoming Weather and Impacts to Water Supply Forecasts This model suggests the storm track remains to the north of the area. Other solutions have the high pressure ridge farther west. That scenario would allow our northern areas to become more susceptible to storm activity. Sun Mar 12th 2017 Upcoming Weather and Impacts to Water Supply Forecasts The next legitimate threat for any significant precipitation looks to be the middle of next week. Models differ on the intensity of the storm system but it does appear more active. However southern areas remain on the dry side. Wed Mar 15th 2017 Upcoming Weather and Impacts to Water Supply Forecasts Precipitation Forecast: 7 day total (Mar 7th-Mar 14th) Key Points

Another much above average month of precipitation on top of very wet December and January has many SNOTEL sites with seasonal precipitation to date and current snow water equivalent values near or above historical records.

Significant runoff is anticipated, especially in the Bear and Weber river basins.

We could still be impacted by abnormally dry spring weather, but many areas would likely still see above average runoff volumes. March and April weather are critical.

CBRFC deterministic model is indicating some increases in stream flows by next week due to low elevation snow melt.

With the potential for high water expected this year, CBRFC daily streamflow forecasts would benefit greatly from increased communication with reservoir operators. • We can use future reservoir release schedules (as well as diversion information)

2017 water supply briefing schedule

— 2017 monthly water supply briefings for the Great Basin

— Thursday Apr 6th @ 1:30 pm MT — Friday May 5th @ 1:30 pm MT

— Colorado River Basin webinars are same dates at 11 am MT

— Peak flow briefing: — Friday Mar 10th @ 10:00 am MT — Additional briefings scheduled as needed.

— Date/Times are subject to change. All registration information has been posted to the CBRFC web page.

Please contact us with any questions

Michelle Stokes – Hydrologist In Charge [email protected]

Paul Miller– Service Coordination Hydrologist [email protected]

Basin Focal Points (Forecasters)

Brenda Alcorn – Colorado River, Lake Powell Focal Point [email protected]

Greg Smith – San Juan, Gunnison, Dolores Focal Point [email protected]

Ashley Nielson – Green River Basin Focal Point [email protected]

Tracy Cox – Lower Colorado Basin, Virgin, Sevier Focal Point [email protected]

Brent Bernard – Great Basin Focal Point [email protected]