Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport DDPS armasuisse Science and Technology Emerging Technology Trends 2015 Thun 2015 Credits Editor Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport DDPS armasuisse Science and Technology Research Management and Operations Research www.armasuisse.ch/wt www.deftech.ch Author Dr. Quentin Ladetto Research Director - Technology Foresight [email protected] Release 1.3 Compiled on Tuesday 21st June, 2016 at 16:43 Front page: Emerging sun - view of the Earth from space Foreword As the rate of development in technology is accelerating and civil investments are pushing boundaries always closer to what was considered science-fiction until recently, the exploitation of dual-use technologies is growing in the defence & security ecosystem. If technology is not the only driver in the evolution of warfare, it is the enabler, not to say the trigger, of most of the changes that occurred at the turning point between generations. For a country like Switzerland, Technology Foresight is paramount to identify the opportuni- ties and threats a technology can represent for the different military capabilities building our national armed forces. Rather than picking winners, the Technology Foresight program must provide a comprehensive overview to ensure an early warning about novel relevant technological advances. Identifying potentialities provides the time to build the necessary competences, skills and expertise, in the various fields. In that sense, Technology Foresight must be an integrated element of the doctrine, planing and procurement processes of the armed forces. Only with this strategic futuristic vision, the Swiss armed forces are able to handle, economi- cally and operatively, the evolutions and challenges to come. Dr. Thomas Rothacher Director armasuisse Science and Technology Preface Supported by exponential advances in technology in combination with the changes in the na- ture of conflicts and warfare, any fixed predictions would be illusory given the evolutionary nature the environment. The proliferation and accessibility of cutting edge military and dual-use tech- nologies - once reserved almost exclusively to state actors - to non-state actors such as terrorist organizations makes not only the anticipation but also the detection of threats a real challenge. Falling costs and rapid changes in manufacturing (maker movement, Fablabs, etc.) also increases the availability of cheap weapons that could offset the more sophisticated systems used by militaries. Focusing on emerging technologies and how some of them might impact the battlefield of tomorrow, the nature of this document can be considered as a continuous work-in-progress. It is the emerging part of a research program gathering information from multiple sources and structuring it in such a way it provides a strategical overview of technology horizon of the coming years. This document structures the technologies in three main levels allowing the reader to access the technological information at a strategic, tactical or operational (detailed) level, Figure 1. The different sections are interactive between them and will be updated at regular interval with content generated from the DEFTECH (Defence Future Technologies) platform. The scope of this platform is first to centralize all the information and second to allow semantic search as well as bring to the front some hidden relationships between technologies, industrial actors and military capabilities. Figure 1: Philosophy of the document presenting three level of nested information, from a strategical overview to a more operational and descriptive level of information. The information is extracted automatically from the DEFTECH platform before being put into military context. Executive Summary Technology Foresight is an instrument for long term anticipation that aims at supporting strategic decisions. Civilian investments and developments in technologies have overcome military resources in many research fields; this means that dual-use technologies are becoming more and more present and important on the battlefield as new combinations of existing components are used in vastly capable ways. At the same time, the evolution in warfare brings established military forces to interact with new actors using new methods of fighting. The resulting asymmetry in conflicts offers a fertile ground for the use and combination of new technologies. The major developments support an increase in four directions; these developments affect the following four elements present in combat : Speed, Awareness & Connectivity, Precision and Distance (or Reach): Speed Speed is increasing and it is facilitated by developments in areas from mobility to computing. Awareness & Awareness about multiple elements such as location, physical indica- Connectivity tors, situation, is available anywhere at anytime thanks to communi- cation and connected sensors. Precision From observation to action, sensors and processing power are en- abling stochastic model to guide ammunitions better or to validate decisions. Distance Distance is not an issue anymore as systems can be operated remotely from the theatre of operations. Illustration: Leonardo da Vinci flying machine 2 The four trend types, and underlying technologies, directly support and improve reliability and speed in every phase of the OODA (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) loop; which is believed to be at the center of victory in any battle. The Defence Future Technologies Foresight program deals with all observable technological trends that might have an impact on the defence landscape. Using a common taxonomy connects the technologies with the industry and the military capabilities. Using directed emergent research methods, there are five major categories which can be identified with underlying support clusters. There is significant interplay between all aspects in a constantly dynamic and morphing landscape; as technology both supports and is supported by other technologies for multiple application av- enues. Regrouping the different technology fields into these categories, the following trends can be identified. Information & Communication - The Big Data and artificial intelligence challenge With increasing computing power, the variety of sources of data from sensors to social networks, the amount of information available about anything grows exponentially over time. As communications media develops in parallel, any information will be available anyplace and anytime. Network- centric warfare grows, and so does the cyber security threat. With increased computational abilities, artificial intelligence and machine learning will help make sense out of this Big Data challenge and are enabling the prediction of future behaviors as well as the real-time presentation of scenarios that could favor a better situational awareness and better decision processes. The clusters of technologies considered in this category are:Communication, Computation, Cyber Security, Internet of Things (IoT), Interfaces, Monitoring, Simulations, Social Crowd Energy - The efficiency and diversification focus The ability to acquire energy is becoming more and more compact as alternative methods in the energy fields open the way to to renewable sources such as sun, the wind, biofuels. Progress in storage, charging/generation, and weight are some of the key enablers for autonomous and remote pilot systems. Besides renewable energies, compact nuclear fusion and micro nuclear reactor could reduce the necessity of operational logistic energy lines. Directed-energy weapons using lasers and high-power microwave will supplement conventional means of warfare. The clusters of technologies considered in this category are: Efficiency, Management, Propul- sion, Storage, Transformation Nanotechnology & Materials - The high performance and adaptability enablers Nanotechnologies are enabling the manufacture of lighter, stronger, more reliable, lower cost, higher performance and more flexible electronic, magnetic, optical and mechanical devices. Materials with new, different properties will appear; such as, self-adaptive materials responding to the environment, this includes self-healing materials. Different type of manufacturing such as Atomically Precise Manufacturing (APM) and Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing) offers new opportunities for logistics and allow the creation and 3 production of new forms and shapes. The clusters of technologies considered in this category are: Base Compound, Biological, Construct, Devices, Materials, Reactive Life Science - The genetic, synthetic revolution and the augmented soldier With quickly increasing capacity for the manipulation of DNA and creation of synthetic organisms, it is now possible to better understand human genetic defects or vulnerabilities and target individuals or groups specifically. Recruitment of soldiers could start before birth. Novel chemical and biological weapons might appear more and more often; easily allowed by the inexpensive production of microorganisms. Human enhancements span from external systems such as exoskeletons to internal systems like cognition enhancing nootropics; increasing the performance of the human brain. These aim to produce more robust and enduring soldiers where health will be permanently monitored and their capabilities improved. The clusters of technologies considered in this category are: Biomedical Engineering, Biotechnolo- gies, Cognitive & Umwelt Sensing, Medical Health, Networked, Sensors, Social. Systems - The robotics,