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The Rise of India: Problems and Opportunities The Rise of India: Problems and Opportunities Ingolf Kiesow Nicklas Norling SILK ROAD PAPER January 2007 The Rise of India: Problems and Opportunities Ingolf Kiesow Nicklas Norling © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Uppsala University, Box 514, 75120 Uppsala, Sweden www.silkroadstudies.org ”The Rise of India: Problems and Opportunities” is a Silk Road Paper produced by the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program. The Silk Road Papers series is the Occasional Papers series of the Joint Center, published jointly on topical and timely subjects. It is edited by Svante E. Cornell, Research and Publications Director of the Joint Center. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program is a joint transatlantic independent and externally funded research and policy center. The Joint Center has offices in Washington and Uppsala, and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Department of Eurasian Studies of Uppsala University. The Joint Center is the first of its kind and is today firmly established as a leading focus of research and policy worldwide, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders and journalists. The Joint Center aims to be at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security and development in the region; and to function as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion of the region through its applied research, its publications, teaching, research cooperation, public lectures and seminars. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, 2007 ISBN: 91-85473-31-6 Printed in Sweden Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: [email protected] Distributed in Europe by: The Silk Road Studies Program Department of Eurasian Studies Uppsala University Box 514, SE-75120 Uppsala Sweden Tel. +46-18-471-2217; Fax. +46-18-106397 E-mail: [email protected] Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Svante E. Cornell, Research and Publications Director, at either of the addresses above. (preferably by e-mail) Table of Contents Executive Summary................................................................................... 9 Introduction................................................................................................13 Historical Perspectives and the Rise of Great Power Ambitions.......... 18 The Birth of India and Its Partition.......................................................18 The Raj—the Period under British Rule..................................................18 The Partition ......................................................................................... 20 Independence or Accession to the Indian Union?...................................... 21 Jammu and Kashmir: An Autonomous State within the Framework of the Union—Theoretically....................................................................23 External Factors Contributing to India’s Security Policy ...................23 The “Five” Indo-Pakistani Wars........................................................... 24 Conventional Defense............................................................................ 26 The Nuclear Dimension ........................................................................ 30 The Effects of the Nuclear Tests.............................................................30 The Development of a Nuclear Doctrine................................................. 31 Domestic Considerations for India’s Security Policy..........................35 Ethnic Relations and Separatist Movements ........................................37 The Tamils .............................................................................................38 The Sikh-uprising in Punjab ...................................................................39 The Unrest in the Northeastern States .................................................. 40 The Naxalites ........................................................................................ 42 India’s Political Preconditions in a Global Perspective ......................44 1947-1989: Slow Economic Development and Social Unrest .....................45 An Undecided Foreign- and Security Policy........................................... 47 Economic Liberalization and a Flexible Foreign Policy ........................... 48 The New Room for Maneuver ................................................................50 The Kashmir Issue and Indo-Pakistani Relations 1987-2006.................. 53 Uprising in Kashmir................................................................................53 The Kashmiri Split .................................................................................56 Counter-attack by the Central Government ........................................... 58 The Restructuring of the Militant Movements ........................................59 A Change of the External Framework..................................................60 The Crisis in 2002 and the New Situation............................................ 61 The U.S. Edging Closer to Both India and Pakistan............................... 63 A Dialogue Between India and Pakistan ................................................66 A Cautious Overture to Peace ...............................................................67 Autonomy...............................................................................................67 The Power-Base of the Abdullah Family is Weakened...........................68 Searching for Peace ................................................................................69 The Trialogue – Easier Said than Done................................................ 71 Religious and Ethnic Factors....................................................................71 The Democratic Deficit and Lack of Legitimacy..................................... 72 The Role of the Separatists..................................................................... 73 The Lack of Legitimacy: Some Extreme Examples ..................................74 Extremists among the Hindus................................................................. 75 “It is not About Religion, it is About Democracy”..................................76 Economic Factors: Competition over Water ...........................................76 Death-tolls and Economic Factors: Arguments for Further De-escalation ....... 77 Militants: A Disruptive Element............................................................80 Hiccups in the Composite Dialogue ..................................................... 81 “ It Takes Two to Tango”...................................................................... 85 The Role of Energy...................................................................................86 India’s Energy Situation from a Global Perspective ...........................86 India’s Energy Demand..........................................................................87 Energy Sources and Projected Production............................................90 Energy in India is Public Utility ...........................................................92 The Problem of Electricity..................................................................... 93 The Coal Sector....................................................................................... 95 The Oil Sector.........................................................................................97 The Natural Gas Sector..........................................................................98 Natural Gas via Pipelines..................................................................... 100 Energy Interdependence as Conflict Prevention; The Ideal Picture 105 Reality .....................................................................................................107 India and the United States ....................................................................109 A Solution to U.S. Energy Security Problems................................... 109 Preparatory Work on U.S.-India ties....................................................109 The Grand Strategic Perspective...........................................................111 Factors Behind the U.S.’ Strategy ..........................................................111 Military Cooperation.............................................................................112 The Joint Declaration on Civilian Nuclear Cooperation ........................113 A High Price to Pay for India................................................................115 Understanding U.S. Policy: Background Factors............................... 116 Pros and Cons: The Cons...................................................................... 120 Pros and Cons: The Pros........................................................................121 Implications for India............................................................................ 122 Implications for the U.S. (and the World) ......................................... 123 If India Opts Out ..................................................................................123
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