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Conflicts of the Future A FORUM FOR PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY SEPTEMBER 2014 BUILDING PEACE 4 CONFLICTS OF THE FUTURE TAKING THE CONFLICT OUT THE TRUST DEFICIT AND PEACEBUILDING WITH OF CONFLICT MINERALS STABLE GOVERNANCE LOCAL CITIZENS BUILDING PEACE 4 CONFLICTS OF THE FUTURE A FORUM FOR PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY 3 Letter from the Editor-in-Chief 24 The Trust Deficit and Stable Governance FRAMING ARTICLES Clare Lockhart 4 The Future of Peace: No Finishing 26 Water, Water, Disappearing Line Everywhere Sundeep Waslekar Ilmas Futehally 8 8 Putting Local Peacebuilders First PROOF OF IMPACT Floribert Kazingufu and Bridget Moix 28 The Future is Now: Evaluation and 10 Technology and the Moral Impact in the Next Two Decades Imagination in Local Melanie Kawano-Chiu Peacebuilding 14 Helena Puig Larrauri NOTES ON POLICY ON THE GROUND 31 Noosphere and Noopolitik: Our Transcendental Destination 12 Peacebuilding with Local Citizens an essay by John Arquilla Stacey Connaughton, Grace Yeanay Mayson, and Kai Kuang 33 Technology: Progress and Potential 14 Communication and Engagement Sanjana Hattotuwa 22 in Peacebuilding Krista Wise and Adam Mukhtar REVIEWS FEATURES 34 Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerilla 16 Crime in the Global Economy: by David Kilcullen; Profit, Survival, and Rule reviewed by Robert Muggah Erwin van Veen 37 Big Men 18 Crime and Conflict: The New a film by Rachel Boynton; Challenge for Peacebuilding reviewed by Adiel Suarez-Murias Jessie Banfield Building Peace content reflects BY THE NUMBERS the thoughts and opinions of our 19 Conflict Minerals, Ethical Supply authors. It does not necessarily Chains, and Peace 39 Conflicts of the Future: represent the position of the Stephen D’Esposito and Alliance for Peacebuilding, its A Snapshot members, or its board members. Amb. Tim Martin All rights reserved. Any 22 Taking the Conflict Out of reproduction of any articles or Conflict Minerals sections of this publication must Michael Loch give credit to Building Peace as the original source. LETTER FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Dear Reader, As we finalize this issue ofBuilding Peace, events. It is natural to feel despair when it feels as though the world is in greater need following the news today as headlines than ever of approaches to heal stark political continue to highlight escalating conflicts and divides, remedy glaring social and economic crises across the globe. But what if we can inequalities, and solve critical health and turn despair into knowledge, action, and environmental challenges. As I write, inter- prevention? Our authors share key informa- national headlines express increasing tion and analysis that can help us navigate urgency about the deaths in Gaza and Israel, the future of peace and conflict. They tell the governance challenges exacerbating the stories that weave the conflicts of today and Ebola crisis in West Africa, and the extreme yesterday into visions of conflicts of the technology is also sweeping in scope, which violence across Central America forcing future, but they also point toward hope. is why we are devoting our March 2015 issue caretakers to send children unaccompanied Indeed, in the act of identifying conflict trends to the topic. Inside these pages is an illustra- and undocumented to the United States. This and documenting local prevention efforts, our tion of the promise of peacebuilding tech- issue doesn’t have all the answers to the authors trace the outlines of a path to a more nology—Wise and Mukhtar describe the way current violence raging around the globe, peaceful future. In this issue, we highlight basic but powerful cell phone technology is but it highlights the trends that will drive the promise of technology (Puig), consider preventing violence in rural South Sudan. the conflicts of tomorrow and sets out what a peacebuilding lens can contribute to creative peacebuilding and human security crime prevention (Banfield), and are encour- The purpose of issue four of Building Peace responses to those threats. aged by a security expert to consider peace is to equip you, our readers, with knowledge, as a “transcendental destination” (Arquilla). analysis, and first-hand perspectives that we The Building Peace team conferred with can convert into action today. The conflict experts from around the world to identify As D’Esposito and Martin suggest, global trends of tomorrow that our authors address the types of conflicts that will become citizens like you are increasingly aware of are relevant now, but will become even more increasingly prevalent in the coming decade. their role in international dynamics: significant with time. Consider the articles Among these key leaders was Sundeep “Whether we produce or buy a wedding ring in this issue of Building Peace an agenda Waslekar, founder of Strategic Foresight or a cell phone, society wants to know that that all of us can pursue. In the midst of Group. In his thought-provoking article, no harm was done and that our purchases conflict, inequity, and failed states, there are Waslekar provides a framework called 4-G, contribute to peace and development.” We solutions, small and big, but they depend on which categorizes the future of peace and know you will appreciate the exploration in our knowledge and commitment combined conflict through the lenses of growth, gover- their article and the accompanying one by with human, financial, and technological nance, God, and geopolitics. Expanding on Loch of Motorola Solutions in which our resources. We welcome your feedback and the insights of Waslekar and our other inter- authors envision a peacebuilding model that comments on these exciting ideas and look national authors, this issue of Building Peace involves government, private sector, and forward to engaging with you. calls out three specific conflict trends that local actors “taking the conflict out of demand our attention: conflict minerals.” Warmly, › Illicit economic activity While competition over natural resources Jessica Berns › Competition over natural resources deserves an entire issue of Building Peace, Editor-in-Chief › Lack of state legitimacy our focus here is specifically on water and minerals as a means of providing a look at The articles in this issue provide a guide to one sub-sector, its challenges, and perhaps understanding, probing, and predicting world some solutions. The conversation around September 2014 3 FRAMING ARTICLE Source: Source: Sundeep Waslekar THE FUTURE NO FINISHING LINE OF PEACE Sundeep Waslekar In his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance countries from four continents, the frame- speech in 1987, Oscar Arias Sánchez, work’s four factors can be narrowed into ten president of Costa Rica, remarked, drivers of either peace or continued conflict: “Peace has no finishing line, no final desti- nation. It is like climbing a mountain peak › growth of income and employment, only to realize that there is another one in › inequity from imbalanced growth, front of you.” › climate change, › water competition and cooperation, Sánchez’s words illustrate the journey of › access to the national governance peacemaking. The future of peace is not apparatus for the entire population, about the outcome of violent conflicts. It is › competitive extremism using religion not about extrapolating trends from the past and sectarianism as instruments, to the present and the present to the future. › expansion of peacebuilding capacities, It is not about a final destination. › geopolitical competition, › the downside of technological The 4-G framework—growth, governance, revolutions, and God, and geopolitics—is useful in consid- › efficacy of global governance ering the future of countries affected by architecture. conflict. Developed by Strategic Foresight Group (SFG), an international think tank It is commonly believed that poverty that has worked with governments and produces conflicts and mediation makes national institutions of more than fifty peace, but instead it is the interplay of the 4 BUILDING PEACE four factors within the 4-G framework and By 2040, much of the world may its ten drivers that shape the trajectory of social and political dynamics. Sometimes, well face the risk of violent conflict this trajectory is the continuation of a current trend, but more often it is the emergence of capable of destabilizing societies. an unforeseen discontinuity. One seed of conflict is a sense of economic By 2040, much of the world may well face regimes have not become authoritarian, yet and social deprivation. This deprivation can the risk of violent conflict capable of desta- have complete monopoly of power with often be traced to historical factors but, just bilizing societies. Certainly, as neoliberal hardly any space for opposition. Cambodia as often, it is helpful to take the contempo- economic policies and expensive elections is the most glaring example, but it is not the rary period into consideration. “Delete the help domineering groups tighten their grip only one. Therefore, the meaning of democ- Elite” graffiti seen recently in Ljubljana, on society, the call to “delete the elite” is racy as a system that is genuinely account- Slovenia, is much like the spray-painted likely to deepen. If so, outcomes will come able to its people will become increasingly expressions on the walls of Athens, Delhi, to depend on how democracy is practiced. tested as leaders use elections rather than Phnom Penh, Johannesburg, Cairo, Paris, armed coups as tools to seize power. Milan, Detroit, Rio, and Davos, indicating By 2040, authoritarian regimes in North that this sense of marginalization is increas- Korea, Sudan, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, When democracy delivers justice and ingly widespread. and Zimbabwe may well have come to an accountability, creating a space where people end. In fact, if democracy is narrowly defined can express their views in a non-violent way, If those who feel deprived are motivated to as a system of elections to decide on a ruler, peace has a good chance of persevering. publicly express discontent, they are also then most countries will likely have When democracy merely provides legiti- apt to organize demonstrations and vote in embraced democracy.
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