A FORUM FOR PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY SEPTEMBER 2014 BUILDING PEACE 4 CONFLICTS OF THE FUTURE

TAKING THE CONFLICT OUT THE TRUST DEFICIT AND PEACEBUILDING WITH OF CONFLICT MINERALS STABLE GOVERNANCE LOCAL CITIZENS BUILDING PEACE 4 CONFLICTS OF THE FUTURE A FORUM FOR PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY

3 Letter from the Editor-in-Chief 24 The Trust Deficit and Stable Governance FRAMING ARTICLES Clare Lockhart

4 The Future of Peace: No Finishing 26 Water, Water, Disappearing Line Everywhere Sundeep Waslekar Ilmas Futehally

8 8 Putting Local Peacebuilders First PROOF OF IMPACT Floribert Kazingufu and Bridget Moix 28 The Future is Now: Evaluation and 10 Technology and the Moral Impact in the Next Two Decades Imagination in Local Melanie Kawano-Chiu Peacebuilding 14 Helena Puig Larrauri NOTES ON POLICY ON THE GROUND 31 Noosphere and Noopolitik: Our Transcendental Destination 12 Peacebuilding with Local Citizens an essay by John Arquilla Stacey Connaughton, Grace Yeanay Mayson, and Kai Kuang 33 Technology: Progress and Potential 14 Communication and Engagement Sanjana Hattotuwa 22 in Peacebuilding Krista Wise and Adam Mukhtar REVIEWS

FEATURES 34 Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerilla 16 Crime in the Global Economy: by David Kilcullen; Profit, Survival, and Rule reviewed by Robert Muggah Erwin van Veen 37 Big Men 18 Crime and Conflict: The New a film by Rachel Boynton; Challenge for Peacebuilding reviewed by Adiel Suarez-Murias Jessie Banfield Building Peace content reflects BY THE NUMBERS the thoughts and opinions of our 19 Conflict Minerals, Ethical Supply authors. It does not necessarily Chains, and Peace 39 Conflicts of the Future: represent the position of the Stephen D’Esposito and Alliance for Peacebuilding, its A Snapshot members, or its board members. Amb. Tim Martin

All rights reserved. Any 22 Taking the Conflict Out of reproduction of any articles or Conflict Minerals sections of this publication must Michael Loch give credit to Building Peace as the original source. LETTER FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

Dear Reader,

As we finalize this issue ofBuilding Peace, events. It is natural to feel despair when it feels as though the world is in greater need following the news today as headlines than ever of approaches to heal stark political continue to highlight escalating conflicts and divides, remedy glaring social and economic crises across the globe. But what if we can inequalities, and solve critical health and turn despair into knowledge, action, and environmental challenges. As I write, inter- prevention? Our authors share key informa- national headlines express increasing tion and analysis that can help us navigate urgency about the deaths in Gaza and Israel, the future of peace and conflict. They tell the governance challenges exacerbating the stories that weave the conflicts of today and Ebola crisis in West Africa, and the extreme yesterday into visions of conflicts of the technology is also sweeping in scope, which violence across Central America forcing future, but they also point toward hope. is why we are devoting our March 2015 issue caretakers to send children unaccompanied Indeed, in the act of identifying conflict trends to the topic. Inside these pages is an illustra- and undocumented to the United States. This and documenting local prevention efforts, our tion of the promise of peacebuilding tech- issue doesn’t have all the answers to the authors trace the outlines of a path to a more nology—Wise and Mukhtar describe the way current violence raging around the globe, peaceful future. In this issue, we highlight basic but powerful cell phone technology is but it highlights the trends that will drive the promise of technology (Puig), consider preventing violence in rural South Sudan. the conflicts of tomorrow and sets out what a peacebuilding lens can contribute to creative peacebuilding and human security crime prevention (Banfield), and are encour- The purpose of issue four of Building Peace responses to those threats. aged by a security expert to consider peace is to equip you, our readers, with knowledge, as a “transcendental destination” (Arquilla). analysis, and first-hand perspectives that we The Building Peace team conferred with can convert into action today. The conflict experts from around the world to identify As D’Esposito and Martin suggest, global trends of tomorrow that our authors address the types of conflicts that will become citizens like you are increasingly aware of are relevant now, but will become even more increasingly prevalent in the coming decade. their role in international dynamics: significant with time. Consider the articles Among these key leaders was Sundeep “Whether we produce or buy a wedding ring in this issue of Building Peace an agenda Waslekar, founder of Strategic Foresight or a cell phone, society wants to know that that all of us can pursue. In the midst of Group. In his thought-provoking article, no harm was done and that our purchases conflict, inequity, and failed states, there are Waslekar provides a framework called 4-G, contribute to peace and development.” We solutions, small and big, but they depend on which categorizes the future of peace and know you will appreciate the exploration in our knowledge and commitment combined conflict through the lenses of growth, gover- their article and the accompanying one by with human, financial, and technological nance, God, and geopolitics. Expanding on Loch of Motorola Solutions in which our resources. We welcome your feedback and the insights of Waslekar and our other inter- authors envision a peacebuilding model that comments on these exciting ideas and look national authors, this issue of Building Peace involves government, private sector, and forward to engaging with you. calls out three specific conflict trends that local actors “taking the conflict out of demand our attention: conflict minerals.” Warmly,

›› Illicit economic activity While competition over natural resources Jessica Berns ›› Competition over natural resources deserves an entire issue of Building Peace, Editor-in-Chief ›› Lack of state legitimacy our focus here is specifically on water and minerals as a means of providing a look at The articles in this issue provide a guide to one sub-sector, its challenges, and perhaps understanding, probing, and predicting world some solutions. The conversation around

September 2014 3 FRAMING ARTICLE Source: Sundeep Waslekar Source:

THE FUTURE NO FINISHING LINE OF PEACE Sundeep Waslekar

In his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance countries from four continents, the frame- speech in 1987, Oscar Arias Sánchez, work’s four factors can be narrowed into ten president of Costa Rica, remarked, drivers of either peace or continued conflict: “Peace has no finishing line, no final desti- nation. It is like climbing a mountain peak ›› growth of income and employment, only to realize that there is another one in ›› inequity from imbalanced growth, front of you.” ›› climate change, ›› water competition and cooperation, Sánchez’s words illustrate the journey of ›› access to the national governance peacemaking. The future of peace is not apparatus for the entire population, about the outcome of violent conflicts. It is ›› competitive extremism using religion not about extrapolating trends from the past and sectarianism as instruments, to the present and the present to the future. ›› expansion of peacebuilding capacities, It is not about a final destination. ›› geopolitical competition, ›› the downside of technological The 4-G framework—growth, governance, revolutions, and God, and geopolitics—is useful in consid- ›› efficacy of global governance ering the future of countries affected by architecture. conflict. Developed by Strategic Foresight Group (SFG), an international think tank It is commonly believed that poverty that has worked with governments and produces conflicts and mediation makes national institutions of more than fifty peace, but instead it is the interplay of the

4 BUILDING PEACE four factors within the 4-G framework and By 2040, much of the world may its ten drivers that shape the trajectory of social and political dynamics. Sometimes, well face the risk of violent conflict this trajectory is the continuation of a current trend, but more often it is the emergence of capable of destabilizing societies. an unforeseen discontinuity.

One seed of conflict is a sense of economic By 2040, much of the world may well face regimes have not become authoritarian, yet and social deprivation. This deprivation can the risk of violent conflict capable of desta- have complete monopoly of power with often be traced to historical factors but, just bilizing societies. Certainly, as neoliberal hardly any space for opposition. Cambodia as often, it is helpful to take the contempo- economic policies and expensive elections is the most glaring example, but it is not the rary period into consideration. “Delete the help domineering groups tighten their grip only one. Therefore, the meaning of democ- Elite” graffiti seen recently in Ljubljana, on society, the call to “delete the elite” is racy as a system that is genuinely account- Slovenia, is much like the spray-painted likely to deepen. If so, outcomes will come able to its people will become increasingly expressions on the walls of Athens, Delhi, to depend on how democracy is practiced. tested as leaders use elections rather than Phnom Penh, Johannesburg, Cairo, Paris, armed coups as tools to seize power. Milan, Detroit, Rio, and Davos, indicating By 2040, authoritarian regimes in North that this sense of marginalization is increas- Korea, Sudan, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, When democracy delivers justice and ingly widespread. and Zimbabwe may well have come to an accountability, creating a space where people end. In fact, if democracy is narrowly defined can express their views in a non-violent way, If those who feel deprived are motivated to as a system of elections to decide on a ruler, peace has a good chance of persevering. publicly express discontent, they are also then most countries will likely have When democracy merely provides legiti- apt to organize demonstrations and vote in embraced democracy. The debate about macy for dominant interests, nations experi- elections. If not, they may resort to violence. democracy versus dictatorship would then ence conflict. Because China, Russia, and History has illustrated that if activists are logically be over, and the debate about the the United States will likely still have influ- jailed and insulted, they discover primordial meaning and delivery of democracy ence and interests outside their national or ideological loyalties to organize them- underway. The question of the meaning of borders in the future, they will face the same selves against their captors and the power democracy will always be vital. Even today, test. If the countries accept the result of they represent. A conflict is born. And if there are countries where governments are democratic competition in those territories, neighboring countries, foreign powers, or elected and, in that sense they could claim regardless of the religion and ideology of other outside players take sides, the conflict to be democracies, but the practice of gover- the winners, they will have peace. If, is magnified. nance by these leaders is not accountable to however, they use military intervention or its people. supply arsenals to chosen parties, they will In 2014, this pattern fits circumstances in likely face violent conflict. Syria, Ukraine, the Central African Republic, Several Egyptian leaders, the Castros of DR Congo, Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, Cuba, and the Assads of Syria have all been In the religious sphere, we are entering an Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine, Naxalite districts technically elected, only to impose authori- era of competitive extremism, from the in India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, tarian regimes. Moreover, in many other Lord’s Resistance Army to al-Qaeda and Thailand, and the Philippines. countries, particularly in Asia, elected beyond. Extreme versions of virtually all religions—Pentecostal Christianity, Shi’a as well as Sunni Islam, Judaism, even Buddhism and Hinduism—are on the rise. When democracy delivers justice and Just as the Crusades of the twelfth century were about competition for power in the accountability, creating a space where name of God, so are those of the people can express their views in a twenty-first. non-violent way, peace has a good I met Hussain bin Alawi, the Foreign Minister of Oman, soon after Samuel chance of persevering. Huntington published his book Clash of

September 2014 5 FRAMING ARTICLE

In the religious sphere, we are entering an era of competitive extremism, from the Lord’s Resistance Army to al-Qaeda and beyond.

Civilizations in 1993. “The term clash of decade, for example, Egypt and Ethiopia could following in its footsteps. If this trend civilizations is a misnomer,” Alawi declared. conceivably go to war over dams in Ethiopia continues, wars between neighbors might He asserted that “the civilized do not clash and historical claims to water in Egypt. The be averted. Cooperation in shared water will by definition. They make peace.” This notion same is true of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, for be critical; countries that engage in active is relevant now as many societies across the the same reasons. A great arch of hydro inse- water cooperation do not go to war. world work to strengthen democracy and curity from Thailand to Turkey and Egypt to governance toward a peaceful future. Uganda looms large on the horizon. (See Figure At the global level, the critical missing piece 1: Mega Arc of Hydro-Insecurity on pg. 27) is a cohesive architecture of governance. Over the next twenty-five years, the United Only specialized agencies for the economy, States, China, and Russia are more than Another development involves new tech- energy, trade, health, migration, and various likely to remain major powers. Other coun- nologies. Great powers may slide from proxy other issues are in place. Despite a veneer tries—such as Brazil, Iran, and Turkey—may fights between their partners to a direct mili- to this end, the UN Security Council is join them from the sidelines. It is in the tary confrontation with advanced technology instead the embodiment of an international nature of states to aggrandize their interests. and the orbit immediately around the earth class system. The upper class has permanent Economic interdependence does not prevent in outer space will more than likely be the seats with veto power. The lower class waits rivalry from turning deadly, however, as main theater of war. At the same time, its turn and when it gets one, it is with World War I and World War II have proven. genomics and nanotechnology revolutions unequal rights. Even as patterns of violence When major powers compete in global space, could easily be misused to develop the next are synchronized through condensation of they will look for sides to take and find generation of weapons. Some may be used fault lines in growth, governance, God, and willing partners in unpredictable places. by states and some in asymmetrical warfare geopolitics, global governance is frag- Who could have imagined, for example, by non-state entities. mented. If current trends continue, these what is now unfolding in Ukraine today, a fault lines will deepen. A new approach to place whose geography and geopolitics Will new and old challenges together pose the architecture of global governance is still placed it at the epicenter of international problems too difficult to surmount? Or is it possible, however. conflict? possible to build enduring peace? One positive development is the move from In the twentieth century, the Cold War was Europe, which fought wars for more than G8 to G20 groups, which reflects a more the primary determinant of violent conflict two thousand years, illustrates the possibility inclusive and representative range of coun- across the globe. In the twenty-first century, of peace. It has developed regional institu- tries. The debate on UN Security Council imbalances in economic growth, domestic tions of peace and cooperation. Other coun- reforms has begun. The progress is inade- governance, and international power struc- tries, in North America, Latin America, quate but the direction is right. The peace- tures are the primary factors. Western Africa, and Southeast Asia, are building community around the world needs

Certain new developments will also be in play. One of these is the declining availability of fresh water. Given climate change, the retreat of glaciers, excessive evaporation, increased Today, think tanks, civil society groups, pollution, population growth, expanding econ- omies, and ever-larger cities, the gap between universities, and legislatures can demand and supply of usable water will only conceptualize new ideas, exchange them continue to grow. Unless new mechanisms for hydro-diplomacy are established, neighboring across the world, form networks, and countries seem likely to clash. Even in the next influence state thinking.

6 BUILDING PEACE to envision a cohesive and functional mecha- nism that enables world leaders to address Sundeep Waslekar Source: emerging violent conflicts and negotiate collaborative solutions to prevent them.

This new architecture of global governance needs to emphasize sustainable solutions based on compromise. If such architecture had existed, the current conflict in Ukraine would likely not have taken place, and the United States and Russia not have needed to agree on a Finland-type neutral status for a united Ukraine. It is now too late to undo the damage in Ukraine. But robust global architecture to define solutions of compro- mise can prevent such conflicts in the future. The architecture for building peace in an increasingly complex world will need to blend the conventional art of peace and diplomacy with specialized expertise in water, space, and other domains.

Developing ideas for such global architec- Sundeep Waslekar is President of Strategic ture from the bottom up is possible. After Foresight Group. He has negotiated with the Second World War, heads of nations armed militants and heads of governments, conceived the United Nations and World crafted new policy concepts, and authored Bank systems. States monopolized knowl- a best-selling book on governance in his edge. Today, think tanks, civil society native language, Marathi. groups, universities, and legislatures can conceptualize new ideas, exchange them across the world, form networks, and influ- ence state thinking. They can come together on the basis of shared values, rather than conflicting national interests, to make another world possible.

The new peacebuilding endeavor cannot be confined to reshaping the global order, however. It must begin at home. In the end, the most critical building blocks of the future will be our societies and nations. Innovation in social engineering, governance, tech- nology, and economic restructuring must be guided to disrupt monopoly of power within our societies, create an inclusive world, and promote dialogue at all levels. If we take this path, we can create a peaceful civiliza- tion and continually renew it since, as Oscar Arias expressed in Oslo in 1987, peace has no finishing line.

September 2014 7 Source: Floribert Kazingufu, Bridget Moix

FRAMING ARTICLE

PUTTING LOCAL PEACEBUILDERS FIRST Floribert Kazingufu and Bridget Moix

Think global, act local is a bumper Chirezi (FOCHI), has taken an innovative sticker the peacebuilding field would approach to help fill this void. do well to take to heart. By supporting locally-led approaches to peacebuilding in FOCHI’s primary focus is to ensure swift, specific conflict situations and as an over- accessible, and free justice to rural village arching goal globally, we can create more populations. Staff and volunteers work with effective and sustainable processes for posi- local communities and within traditional tive change while ensuring our field remains structures to establish community peace true to its core principles. courts called barazas. Baraza is a Swahili word meaning gathering and suggests an Since 1998, the Democratic Republic of open approach based on restorative rather Congo (DRC) has been caught up in a cycle than punitive processes of justice and truth- of conflict that has enriched armed militias seeking. Barazas are created in rural villages and impacted neighboring countries. In the with little access to other justice mechanisms process, DRC communities have suffered a and provide a space for resolving conflicts range of abuses and found themselves with through dialogue, mediation, and reconcili- largely ineffective local justice mechanisms. ation. A FOCHI innovation, they integrate In the South Kivu province, however, some traditional processes and local knowledge communities are taking a different approach into their approach. to addressing the difficult issues of account- ability, justice, and peacemaking. Since 2010, The use of peace courts in peacebuilding is a local Congolese organization, Fondation not a recent innovation, but FOCHI has

8 BUILDING PEACE developed a unique process for integrating Baraza is a Swahili word meaning gathering women into the justice process. First estab- lishing a mixed-gender peace court supported . . . . [they] are created in rural villages with by male community leaders, FOCHI then little access to other justice mechanisms created an all-female peace court to and provide a space for resolving conflicts encourage women to come forward with cases of sexual and domestic violence. Cases through dialogue, mediation, and are brought to the court and resolved by the reconciliation. baraza leaders, and the special women’s courts provide confidential services for crimes such as marital rape. In these cases, women often prefer non-traditional forms of justice: rather than send her husband to Recent research and policy discussions in the between international actors and local peace- jail, leaving her defenseless and without United States and at the United Nations are builders will also require careful listening income, a woman may opt for him to live raising attention to the problems created by and new modes of cooperation, committed with a neighbor, returning daily for house- externally-driven peacebuilding efforts that time, and dedicated resources. But it is work and childcare. lack adequate local knowledge, undermine possible. Our partnership between the or drain local leadership, and fail to advance Chirezi Foundation and Peace Direct USA The community also organizes reconciliation sustainable change beyond immediate crises. is one example. ceremonies to eliminate lingering roots of The development field has become so depen- hatred, achieving resolution communally. dent on external funding and donor-driven Our shared vision of a more peaceful and just As the barazas are increasingly integrated approaches that even the best intentioned world demands we ensure that local peace- within South Kivu communities, they have efforts to support locally-led approaches are builders are at the center rather than the become a focus for livelihood development, caught in a system already designed to operate margins of designing and creating positive including microfinance, as well. from the outside, in. futures for their communities. This will require determined effort, concrete policies, and prac- In reducing violence and increasing collabo- As the baraza courts in South Kivu demon- tical solutions from our field and it may also ration, trust, and empowerment within strate, however, when local peacebuilders require a fundamental flip in the direction the communities and also between villagers— are empowered to lead in designing and peacebuilding world is now headed. ex-rebel fighters, local leaders, and authori- implementing programs, they reduce ties—becomes paramount, and the barazas violence and advance positive change in Floribert Kazingufu founded the Chirezi have had a positive impact where many other powerful and lasting ways. And these results Foundation to “build peace and change lives” donor-driven projects have failed. Those are achieved at very little cost: for example, in South Kivu. involved with the program cited access to $27 to resolve a case through the baraza justice and empowerment of women as the initiative versus around $1,000 in the courts. Bridget Moix serves on the board of Peace most significant changes. To date, 90 percent Direct USA and is a research fellow at George of the 1,500 cases brought to the barazas Locally-led peacebuilding is not simple. The Mason’s School for Conflict Analysis and have been resolved, a number that holds up challenges of scaling up community-level Resolution (S-CAR). admirably against the results of formal efforts are significant, and we are only begin- justice systems often favored by donor funds ning to find ways to support and evaluate (see the program evaluation here). such impacts. Reshaping relationships

As the barazas are increasingly integrated within South Kivu communities, they have become a focus for livelihood development, including microfinance, as well.

September 2014 9 Source: The Peace Factory

FRAMING ARTICLE

TECHNOLOGY AND THE MORAL IMAGINATION IN LOCAL PEACEBUILDING

Helena Puig Larrauri

The peacebuilding practitioner, John Social Media has since led a number of online and offline Paul Lederach, neatly summarizes in initiatives, including posting banners of love “The Moral Imagination” how we can use Too often, communities in conflict know between Israelis and Iranians on buses in Tel technology to increase the impact of peace- very little about each other. There is fear in Aviv and running a matching system called building initiatives: the unknown and peacebuilders work hard “Friend me for Peace” that encourages to share stories across conflict divides. Yet Facebook “friending” across conflict divides. Reach out to those you fear. Touch the heart persuading people to reach across to those Although its initiatives have not yet been of complexity. Imagine beyond what is seen. they fear can be difficult. Can local peace- formally evaluated, the organization points Risk vulnerability one step at a time. builders use social media as a first step to to the potential of personal sharing over social bridge this divide? media as a low-resource complement to These four approaches are mirrored in four engaging in deeper, face-to-face discussions contemporary digital tools: social media, The Peace Factory is a nonprofit organization about identity. communication technologies, digital games, promoting peace in the Middle East by and online dialogue. Most local peace- making connections between people on Communication Technologies builders operate in tough operational envi- Facebook. The Peace Factory initially encour- ronments with limited resources. New aged people to post a simple message of love Sometimes information surrounding a technologies offer possibilities for local from Israelis to Iranians. The campaign conflict is well off the mark and inaccurate— peacebuilders to increase their reach and quickly expanded to other conflicted pairs in reports of violence or relating what citi- impact, overcoming both resource and opera- (Palestine-Israel, Morocco-Iran, Pakistan- zens are worried about. Very often, tional barriers. Israel, America-Iran, and so on). The group information is either out of date or feeds a

10 BUILDING PEACE common narrative disseminated by more New technologies empower local vocal parts of society (or both). Hardly ever is information based on evidence, much less peacebuilders to do what was previously recent evidence. How could it be? Depending impossible and can be effective tools of the on the context, it can be dangerous to ask moral imagination, shifting future trends in about certain sensitive topics or logistically complicated to gather information. Yet peacebuilding toward more local, impactful, without adequate information, understanding and imaginative implementation. the complex drivers of a conflict and finding the best levers for intervention is difficult.

In the Somali region of Africa, Interpeace Games for Peace demonstrates the potential encourage people to see that building peace is working with three local research institu- for existing popular games to enable collab- is possible. Conflict situations, Lederach tions to run regular, fast, and relatively low- orative game-play situations where a tells us, are often constrained by the sense cost participatory polling processes that will peaceful future can be imagined. of inevitability often present in conflict. provide up-to-date and reliable information What peacebuilders need to do is provide on people’s views about the democratization Online Dialogue spaces for the moral imagination to emerge. process. Combined with the rich contextual Moral imagination is the ability to recognize understanding and ongoing qualitative One of the toughest challenges local peace- turning points and possibilities in order to research of these institutions, polling data builders face is facilitating positive contact venture down unknown paths and create offers additional, strategic support to long- to create the conditions for a brokered peace. what does not exist. New technologies term change processes. What makes them But often physical contact between groups empower local peacebuilders to do what was operationally viable is a combination of text on either side of a divide is difficult for previously impossible and can be effective messaging (SMS) and online tools: Magpi political, security, and purely logistical tools of the moral imagination, shifting for data collection on tablets, FrontlineSMS reasons. Can local peacebuilders engineer future trends in peacebuilding toward more for data collection via SMS, First Mile GEO meaningful contact over online platforms? local, impactful, and imaginative for data processing and analysis, and Elva implementation. for crowdsourcing. (For a full description Soliya’s Connect Program is an online, of the system, click here.) cross-cultural education program that links Helena Puig Larrauri is a peacebuilding undergraduate programs in a hundred univer- practitioner focusing on the use of tech- Digital Games sities and has brought together students from nology to promote peace and prevent twenty-seven countries since 2003. Students conflict. She is a co-organizer ofBuild Peace One of the hardest things for communities join a group of about ten students and two and co-founder of Build Up, and she is on living in conflict is to imagine a common facilitators and meet online for two hours the Board of Advisors of the Standby Task future. Community workshops, peace festi- over ten weeks. They talk about everyday Force, which she co-founded in 2010. vals, and conferences are important forums life and culture as well as controversial social for encouraging this vision, but often hard and political issues. Facilitators are trained to scale. Could digital games be a viable to manage tensions, introduce activities, and alternative for connection? maintain an atmosphere for constructive dialogue. The program regularly receives A group of Arab and Jewish Israeli teenagers rave reviews about its effectiveness in recently built a peace village together—in providing avenues for students to risk the virtual realm of the Minecraft game sharing their differences and rejoice in their world. It was an initiative of Games for similarities. Peace, a nonprofit organization that believes “online games represent a radical new way Technology and the Moral of bridging the gap between young people Imagination in conflict zones.” The initiative has not yet been evaluated, but the pilot was popular These initiatives illustrate how technology enough that a broader game is being planned. can provide tools for local peacebuilders to

September 2014 11 Source: Flickr (Ken Harper)

ON THE GROUND LIBERIA

PEACEBUILDING WITH LOCAL CITIZENS Stacey Connaughton, Grace Yeanay Mayson, and Kai Kuang

When we went through the . . . containment Since the end of Liberia’s protracted site after the revolution, we were demobilized civil war in 2003, motorcycle taxi . . . for five days. How can a man who went driving—called pen-pen driving, locally— through a revolution for fourteen consecu- has helped build peace in the country by tive years [be healed in] only five days? Just providing people with both a livelihood and [put yourself in his shoes]. You think they’ll a means of transport while helping drivers not be traumatized? In five days’ time you reintegrate into society. Yet pen-pen driving say “go,” you give him US$150. Then after is a profession fraught with challenges, and . . . the $150 is finished, what [can he do]? one that requires the attention of the peace- So it’s good that the motorcycle business building community. came to Liberia. If it were not so, I swear you [could not] come to this country. People Many pen-pen drivers were combatants during will be blasting things [being violent]. You the fourteen-year conflict (1989–2003) that getting me? Even myself as a former [mili- devastated Liberia’s infrastructure. tary officer], I will form my men and we will Motorcycles became an alternative means of be at the corner and we will highjack the transport in part because they are faster than car because I’m not doing anything. But I cars and buses and are easier to access. don’t have to do that. Motorcycles came to Although pen-pen drivers have become valued Liberia and now I can [tell people about] service providers, they are also often perceived this opportunity. as outcasts. Pen-pen drivers have been known to engage in lawless behavior and to confront —former combatant both police and customers. Their low

12 BUILDING PEACE socioeconomic status also makes them vulner- We were listening to messages able. Some are hired by criminal entities to engage in illicit activity or by political parties of hope and commitment to help and politicians during campaigns and elections to intimidate and harass political opponents. improve local communities through Cases have been reported of their staging collaboration. political violence across Liberia, notably in Monrovia. Because of this potential to trigger political violence, their integration into the country’s peacebuilding efforts is essential.

These factors motivated us to work with Source: pen-pen drivers and those who regularly reintegrate into society and contribute to the interact with them to help minimize the economy, undo their image as perpetrators likelihood of political violence. We created of violence, and promote their role as agents an opportunity for community members to of peace. come together including police, drivers, and customers, to talk with each other and Update: At the time this issue of Building develop ideas for peacebuilding. In these Peace was being finalized, the Pen-Pen sessions, we were listening to much more Peace Network initiated a public awareness than peacebuilding strategies—we were campaign throughout Monrovia to educate Source: Flickr (Ken Harper) listening to messages of hope and commit- citizens about Ebola virus prevention and ment to help improve local communities created hand-washing stations around the through collaboration. city. The Pen-Pen Peace Network was inspired to tackle their country’s recent chal- The group formed a local peace committee lenges and, with efficient transportation, the called the Pen-Pen Peace Network. Over the Pen-Pen drivers are well positioned to aid last ten months, the committee has developed their community. This extension of the a multimedia campaign based on text program’s activities maintains its focus on messages, radio, and billboards to improve locally-centered initiatives. attitudes toward and behaviors of pen-pen drivers. It has also designed and conducted Stacey L. Connaughton, Ph.D. is Associate an outreach plan to various audiences. Head of the Brian Lamb School of Working with the Purdue Peace Project and Communication, Associate Professor, and the Women Movement for Sustainable Director of the Purdue Peace Project (PPP) Development, the committee has helped at Purdue University, USA. She directs PPP design surveys to measure the impact of initiatives in Ghana, Liberia, and Nigeria. these strategies. It has advocated on behalf of pen-pen drivers and some members have Grace Yeanay Mayson is Executive Director become part of Liberia’s national-level of Women Movement for Sustainable conversation about the industry. They have Development in Liberia. She is also a Board all, in effect, become local leaders. Member of ABANTU for Development in Ghana and a Country Consultant for the Challenges still exist. The Pen-Pen Peace Aids Healthcare Foundation (AHF). Network, however, drives home the message that local, everyday citizens can be effective Kai Kuang is a doctoral candidate of peacebuilders. It inspires us to believe that, communication at the Brian Lamb School together, the imagining and doing of peace- of Communication at Purdue University. building is possible. Our hope is that the committee’s efforts will help pen-pen drivers

September 2014 13 Source: Flickr (Chris Devers)

ON THE GROUND SUDAN

COMMUNICATION AND ENGAGEMENT IN PEACEBUILDING Krista Wise and Adam Mukhtar

In the locality of Kebkabiya, North community-led project born of a strong Darfur, some 150 kilometers west of desire to end old tribal rivalries. Already, Sudan’s capital city of El Fasher, the some stolen livestock has been recovered Sudanese Development Initiative (SUDIA) and some intertribal negotiations have been is using low-tech solutions to build peace launched. The negotiations, Yasin says, are by improving communication flows to the most important achievement. improve livelihoods. In Kebkabiya, engagement and communica- “The most important problems we face here tion are particularly salient concerns. are a lack of security and problems between Traditionally sustained by agriculture and the Beni Hussein and Rizeigat tribes,” says livestock trade, Kebkabiya hit the spotlight Yasin Hussein Abbakr. Yasin, formerly a in 2012 when gold was discovered in nearby farmer in the small village of Gurra Jebel Amer. The discovery brought an influx Farjawiya, was displaced to the town of of outsiders and, with them, an upswing in Kebkabiya and is now a proud member of violence as already scarce resources were SUDIA’s Community Communications stretched to the breaking point. But even System (CCS). Through CCS, Yasin and before the discovery of gold, competition other community members from ten over land had increased in the wake of deser- Kebkabiya settlements have received tification and a history of heavy conflict in training to help them become better ambas- the region, both factors which have made sadors for peace. Impressively, Yasin and peaceful co-existence challenging to maintain. his new colleagues decided to immediately Given proliferation of arms, disputes over implement those skills in a purely land and resources have become increasingly

14 BUILDING PEACE violent. In addition, conventional communi- In addition, conventional cation channels are limited and unreliable. Locals depend on community leaders, mobile communication channels are limited phones, and radio to receive what information they can, but the flow is erratic. and unreliable. Locals depend on community leaders, mobile phones, Good communication improves not only relationships within and among communi- and radio to receive what information ties, but also has a positive impact on liveli- hoods. For example, by providing they can, but the flow is erratic. information about shortages, market prices, harvest progress, disputes, and peace activity, community members are able to make more informed day-to-day decisions. Saliha is responsible for her younger Krista Wise is studying intercultural media- The CCS uses text messaging to communi- siblings. “Being a part of the CCS means I tion with a special focus on identity, migra- cate with sources—selected from both am better informed and can make better tion, and conflict prevention at Charles de genders and all ages and local tribes—in the decisions for my family,” Saliha explains. Gaulle University, Lille. ten-village cluster. Sources are requested to “When I learn from the CCS that the well send at least two messages weekly on issues in a nearby village is damaged, I know not Adam Mukhtar has more than fourteen years pertinent to community life. In return, they to send my sisters to collect water there.” experience in humanitarian operations in receive a weekly and monthly summary of Sudan and South Sudan, including five years all CCS messages which they are encouraged Saifeddin Mohammed Abbakar was displaced with the UN peacekeeping mission in Sudan to share and discuss. from his farm and lost his income. He uses before separation. CSS information to inform his friends of Thirty-four-year-old Saliha Younis market prices in various areas so they can Mohammed from the village of Edded choose the best place to sell their goods and Source: Public Domain Al-Nas used to get most of her news from help more food reach areas affected by short- her younger brothers or by chatting with the ages. Being part of the CCS gives Saifeddin neighbors. If the network was good, she the opportunity to have a valuable impact on would call friends in other villages, but his community, contributing to others even coverage is patchy, so she was often unaware as he rebuilds his own life. of what was happening outside her village. The presence of armed militias on the roads For SUDIA, this enthusiasm is an important means that traveling between villages is reminder that building peace is not a top- dangerous, making it difficult to spread vital down process. There can be no peace without security information any other way. community engagement.

“Being a part of the CCS means I am better informed and can make better decisions for my family,” Saliha explains. “When I learn from the CCS that the well in a nearby village is damaged, I know not to send my sisters to collect water there.”

September 2014 15 Source: Flickr (Coast Guard News)

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CRIME IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Last year, authorities seized 1,300 kilo- generated by organized crime fuel corrup- PROFIT, SURVIVAL, grams of cocaine in Paris from an Air tion, terrorism, and exploitation. Yet those AND RULE France flight originating from Caracas. actually producing the illicit goods profit In 2009, drug smugglers unloaded 10,000 the least and often continue to face dire Erwin van Veen kilograms of cocaine in Gao, Mali for trans- poverty and poor governance. In the case of port to the European market from a Boeing drugs, military-style eradication programs 747 that took off from Venezuela. Both of often exacerbate the situation. Whether orga- these incidents reflect the nature of modern nized crime is on the increase is difficult to transnational organized crime in several assess, but that it is substantial in scope and respects. One of these is the magnitude of here to stay is unquestionable. illicit material. The Paris flight alone carried an estimated street value of 200 million euros, Organized crime can only be understood or roughly ten percent of the GDP of Liberia, within the context of economic globalization worth of cocaine. The brazen nature of both and current levels of inequality. These events also makes it clear that official circumstances are, in part, what transformed complicity in origin countries is highly likely, cross-border smuggling and local protection given the difficulty of loading such quantities rackets into transnational drug networks and of drugs onto a plane without raising suspi- a global trade in counterfeit goods and cion. Additionally, the origin and destination human beings. of the flights capture the dynamic of global demand and supply that propels much of Over the last few decades, globalization has today’s organized crime. significantly increased the scope and volume of transnational connectivity and commerce. What these episodes do not tell us is that It has also connected supply and demand organized crime has a major influence on for illicit resources, products, and services violence and conflict worldwide. Homicide between richer and poorer parts of the world, rates in Latin America, the epicenter of the and not by chance. Western banks such as drugs trade, can exceed the casualty figures Standard Chartered and HSBC, financial of civil wars. Meanwhile, the fortunes intermediaries, and poor compliance with

16 BUILDING PEACE Organized crime can only be understood tidal wave of crime. Reality is both more reassuring and more alarming. It is reassuring within the context of economic globalization because these countries have the means to and current levels of inequality. These reduce the influence of crime on politics and circumstances are, in part, what transformed the formal economy, monitor how it penetrates society, and minimize its social harm. It is cross-border smuggling and local protection also alarming because organized crime is rackets into transnational drug networks more akin to a parasite than to a tidal wave— in perfect symbiosis with its host and therefore and a global trade in counterfeit goods and more difficult to detect. human beings. Three broad actions are indicated to address this complex reality at the global level:

Financial Action Task Force recommenda- criminal purposes, which allows shifting the 1. Ensure stringent enforcement of regula- tions to reduce money laundering by the main risks onto those who gain the least tions, in particular pertaining to the diligence Organization for Economic Cooperation and from organized crime. The miserable story and record-keeping obligations of financial Development (OECD) play a significant of those who navigate narco-subs across the intermediaries, so that laundering profits role. In other words, organized crime is not Caribbean illustrates this well. Second, becomes more difficult. We know what needs just a consequence of globalization; it is an absent better prospects and in the face of to be done, but powerful lobbies and profits integral component and some of its architects low levels of social capital between groups stand in the way. are, wittingly or unwittingly, developed in some environments, crime has become a countries. legitimate, even respected, activity. 2. Take extreme care in strengthening law enforcement on the front line of fighting To address the problem, a global focus on the In short, the challenge is not how to eliminate organized crime in fragile countries (the supply, transit, and demand of trade is transnational organized crime but rather how Economist’s problematic approach to warranted. Current practice, though, largely to minimize its most harmful consequences, terrorism is not to be emulated), because the reflects the preferences of richer, more devel- especially violence. elites of these countries are often complicit. oped countries. One of the more extreme examples of this propensity is how the inter- Environments characterized by contested 3. Increase development cooperation to national drugs prohibition regime emphasizes statehood and conflict must be considered address organized crime, but focus on reducing supply through a zero-tolerance law against this backdrop. The possibility and reducing violence and increasing social enforcement approach, ignoring the condi- profitability of transnational organized crime stability, possibly on the basis of the New tions that help generate supply and facilitate are both relatively high, either because of Deal for Engagement in Fragile States transit. The consequences include a tightening lower levels of regulatory capacity, social combined with a thorough understanding of of supply which, given stable demand, pushes cohesion, and higher corruptibility, or the local political economy and its global up both prices and violence in production and because the resources acquired through illicit entanglements. transit countries. activities are easily used to gain political and economic power. Pre-2012, Mali illus- These steps will not, as the United Nations Additionally, any approach must take social trates well how central elites worked with Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) would and political contexts into account. The illicit networks to govern, benefit financially, have it, “put them out of business,” but they global increase of inequality, as highlighted and sustain their hold on power. The global will emphasize reducing global socio-polit- by the recent work of Oxfam and Thomas embedment of these environments magnifies ical harm. Piketty, perpetuates a situation in which opportunities for profit; stark inequalities in hundreds of millions of people continue to the face of poverty enable criminals to estab- Erwin van Veen is a senior research fellow live in abject poverty and social divides in lish a socially attractive, and at times legiti- at Clingendael’s Conflict Research Unit. He many countries have intensified and become mate, way of life. researches the political economy of change structural. The ramifications are twofold. processes in conflict-affected environments, First, a ready army of producers, brokers, Talk among developed countries, conve- focusing on security- and justice-related couriers, and forgers can be recruited for niently sidestepping their own role, is of a issues and the Middle East.

September 2014 17 Source: Flickr (jbdodane)

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CRIME AND THE NEW CHALLENGE CONFLICT FOR PEACEBUILDING Jessie Banfield

Organized crime, long considered a ›› Lasting solutions—despite the tendency Steps can be taken to narrow the law and order problem, is now of traditional law and order approaches boundary between crime and politics becoming part of development policy to exclude civil society perspectives— as well as encouraging experiences of and other agendas. This shift reflects will be found in civic activism and factoring criminal agendas into peace growing recognition that armed violence empowerment. negotiations and processes. and associated fragility related to organized 4. Tackling crime incentive struc- crime require that policymakers and practi- International Alert’s research in Rio de tures, including widening tioners work across all related sectors: law Janeiro, the Mano River Union countries of inequality. A better understanding of enforcement and crime prevention, security West Africa, and the Philippines, points to why individuals are drawn into crime and diplomacy, development and peace- five priority areas for addressing organized is imperative. Targeted livelihood building, and public health. crime and fragility: opportunities for at-risk populations as a direct response is one potential area Designing interventions that draw on the 1. Ensuring ‘do no harm’ law of focus. scope of skills and approaches of peace- enforcement. Learning from experi- 5. Disrupting globalized market builders is critical to a new generation of ences in which law enforcement led structures. Developed countries that crime responses. Several areas are especially to an increase in violence is critical. receive and consume illegal goods need important: Conflict-sensitive approaches would to address their side of the problem as enhance this effort. much as producer and intermediary ›› Rounded conflict analysis of the nexus 2. Improving analysis and informa- countries need to deal with theirs. of organized crime, armed violence, tion flow. Enormous knowledge gaps The debates are detailed and complex. and fragility in any given context, remain, particularly in the public realm. Meaningful reflection has begun but understanding the political economy, Greater analytical purchase across all must accelerate if transformation of and differentiating among root causes, global, national, and localized dimen- the difficult issues at hand is to be proximate causes, and triggers will help sions will facilitate better monitoring of achieved. inform more holistic responses. the impact of policy responses. ›› Often initiated, facilitated, and 3. Dealing with predatory power Adapted from Jessie Banfield, Crime and sustained by impartial or expert third holders and the link between Conflict: The New Challenge for Peacebuilding parties, dialogue on conflict issues will organized crime and politics. (London: International Alert, 2014). incorporate and empower the actors Current state-building approaches involved in and affected by the problem require a deeper understanding of the Jessie Banfield is an 11-year veteran of to generate solutions together. role of predatory power holders. International Alert, leading policy and research activities on economic dimensions of peace and conflict as Country Manager Designing interventions that draw on the scope of in Uganda, and Africa Programme Manager. Since recently leaving Alert, she has been skills and approaches of peacebuilders is critical to a working as an independent consultant. new generation of crime responses.

18 BUILDING PEACE Source: Flickr (Julien Harneis)

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CONFLICT MINERALS, ETHICAL SUPPLY CHAINS, AND PEACE Stephen D’Esposito and Ambassador Tim Martin

Diamonds and gold have an intensely contribute to peace and development. emotional as well as monetary and Investors and their shareholders feel much industrial value. They symbolize love, the same: they want to be sure that the money romance, friendship, and far, far more. they raise on stock markets in New York, Human rights and environmental London, Toronto, and Sydney is not creating campaigners were onto something when they liabilities for human rights, or to the reputa- first targeted diamonds and then gold. The tions of their companies. story of blood diamonds and conflict gold— minerals mined in war zones and sold to The electronics industry, like the jewelry finance an insurgency, war effort, or sector, moved quickly and effectively to warlord—threatened to change the emotional support supply-chain transparency. In equation. The industry reaction was positive: February 2014, Greenpeace campaigner Tom the jewelry sector, along with key nongov- Dowdall spoke of “Apple’s increased trans- ernmental organizations (NGOs), helped parency about its suppliers” as “a hallmark design systems to promote conflict-free of Tim Cook’s leadership at the company.” diamond supply chains. By the time the The Enough Project, which supports peace movie Blood Diamond hit theaters, the dire and human rights in the Democratic Republic situation it depicted in Sierra Leone had of Congo (DRC), had similar praise for Intel, improved dramatically. HP, and Motorola Solutions.

Tantalum, tungsten, and tin are also highly- We have now moved beyond transparency prized, integral in the manufacture of to a new era, of shared responsibility for computers and cell phones. While electronics ethical supply chains that have potentially are important purchases, the emotional trans- significant implications for peace, develop- action is not the same as with diamonds and ment, and the environment. Downstream gold. Yet whether we are buying a wedding companies, those that use minerals in their ring or a cell phone, society wants to know products, have shifted from a reactive that no harm was done and that our purchases posture to recognition that their brands and

September 2014 19 Source: Stephen D’Esposito, Amb. Tim Martin

whether Alliance Diamond Diamond - orga initiate, to best questions—how how (OECD) put forward guidelines on conflict- on guidelines forward put (OECD) free due diligence for sensitive minerals, guidelines that are not restricted to the Central Africa region. The G8 ratified the with extractives for imperative conflict-free which Declaration, Erne Lough G8 2013 the legit- sourced be should “minerals that states zones.” conflict from plundered not imately, Shift a Paradigm to Pathway The rapid shift to shared responsibility for remarkable. been has resources natural ethical from point, tipping a reached have We to nize, incentivize, and regulate. The new paradigm has two elements: the transparent supply chain and the ethically upcoming the In mineral. sourced and mined phase, the larger mining companies and the as such sector ASM the in leaders for Responsible Mining and the Development Initiative become essential in development, and transparency for agents government, and society civil with partnership because it takes collaboration to build cred- ible supply chains and promote in-region capacity building and development. critical a are companies mining Large-scale countries in partner development and peace

- - Over Over the Organization Organization for Global Mining Initiative, launched by (KP) to ban conflict conflict ban to (KP) Process Kimberley Economic Cooperation and Development began to change when the Sudanese of company a accused Church Presbyterian court. to grievances their took and genocide The early the in firms mining major world’s the 2000s, signaled a new orientation. Since then, a combination of public pressure and commit- new to led has leadership industry transpar greater standards, global to ments impact. development demonstrated and ency, supported interventions chain supply Recent bring jewelers and sectors electronics the by positive dimension. a new, challenge Today’s may be greatest in the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) individu- miners—whether which in sector, ally or in small groups or networks—work by hand. Small-scale mining can be dangerous but provides income for tens of some in is also It world. the around millions abuses. rights and conflict to linked regions Signs of progress are evident, however. The diamonds transformed the global trade by inter any for penalties criminal establishing national transactions in uncertified rough however. limitations, has KP The diamonds. Some question the self-policing aspects of - orga rights Human system. governance its certi- KP the of critical been have nizations fication of diamonds from Zimbabwe. impact. positive a had KP the Nevertheless, More the recently, UN has adopted guide- lines for business and human rights. The instability in the DRC after the Rwandan Council Security UN the prompted genocide to examine the role of natural resources in conflict for the first time, but it had no real mechanisms to do anything about it. Dodd-Frank the of provision a implement To Act of 2010, the Securities and Exchange Commission required listed companies to from minerals conflict of use their on report the DRC and bordering countries; first reports were due this past June. last few years, the -

BUILDING PEACEBUILDING

20 The sense today is one of growing confidence growing of one is today sense The government and society, civil industry, that challenges resource to respond to partner can in oil producing 1990s, the In conflicts. and a conflict zone was considered by some to view That decision. business legitimate a be The time is ripe to focus on the role of the companies, Sector sector. extractive global develop- and NGOs, peace and development busi- The partners. critical are agencies ment ness case is supported by the growth of associ delays investing, responsible socially ated with social conflict at sites, the new wave of supply chain de-risking, and the commercial and development value of ore countries. bodies in conflict-affected A Hopeful Moment products tell a story to consumers—including to story a tell products stories from upstream communities that for necessary resources natural the provide the of work The goods. of manufacture the gold conflict-free a on Council Gold World tool for its members is evidence of the support of upstream companies. This new seeds contains chains supply to orientation because peacebuilding and development for to communities mining connects ethically it the power of global brands. The greatest potential for positive, upstream impact the across exerted is leadership when comes - proces traders, chain—miners, supply total sors, manufacturers, and consumer-facing brands—and includes the small-scale arti- houses. mining global as well as miner sanal applies trend The example. one but is Mining to other natural resource supply chains. Tantalum, tungsten,Tantalum, and tin are also highly-prized, integral in the manufacture of computers and cell phones. FEATURES experiencing conflicts around mineral Mining investors, manufacturers, retailers, resources. Just a decade ago, the large-scale mining sector could largely ignore and differ- consumers, and governments will want to entiate itself from the artisanal and small- know that companies are clean of conflict scale mining sector, including informal and both upstream and downstream. illegal miners. They can no longer do so.

The World Bank reports some 100 million artisanal miners in about eighty countries contributing some 20 percent of the gold The challenge and opportunity extends to At the same time, the challenges are real. and diamond production worldwide as well other natural resources. Although certifica- Entrenched conflicts will not disappear as other strategic and high-value minerals. tion systems have become more sophisti- simply as a result of supply-chain due dili- Development, like politics, can make strange cated, too often, war is waged at the other, gence and conflict-free sourcing pilots. bedfellows. New models are emerging for informal end of the supply chain. Today’s Multi-sector partnerships are useful but not positive cohabitation by the large-scale illegality and informality in many supply a panacea. The real challenge is how to scale mining sector, development agencies, human chains present a challenge. Responsible up systems so that millions can participate. rights and development NGOs, and govern- actors, whether they are trying to address Thankfully, market-based models have been ments because all need solutions to the chal- illegal wood, fish, ivory or other commodi- pioneered and all indicators are that a combi- lenges and opportunities the ASM sector ties, need a starting point. As with the nation of business leadership, new multilat- presents. informal mining sector, resource diplomacy eral standards, and civil society engagement can be used to identify a critical starting will take it global. Proof of Concept for Resource point and the right group of partners. Diplomacy Stephen D’Esposito is President of The shift in how key actors have begun to RESOLVE. Steve has worked for over two The most recent innovation in ethical supply organize to respond to this opportunity is decades to develop strategies that promote chains is from the DRC, which only recently encouraging. In the advocacy landscape, sustainable development in the extractive was ground zero for conflict minerals—the where civil society was once in an opposi- sector. He played a leadership role in result of an intervention referred to as tional posture fighting severe pollution and forging industry-civil society-government resource diplomacy. The premise of resource other abuses at mine sites, the trend is toward partnerships to promote solutions to chal- diplomacy is that voluntary, multi-sector development partnerships. lenges stemming from conflict minerals, to intervention can play a unique role in shale development, to site-based community building public-private partnerships to Challenges and Opportunities conflicts and other issues. support in-region capacity building and bolster government processes. A new A new norm is fast unfolding in the extractive Tim Martin is President of Diplomatic program, Solutions for Hope, is one example. sector that will touch every link of the supply Counsel International Policy Consulting (See Taking the Conflict Out of Conflict chain for sensitive minerals: mining investors, and a Strategic Partner of RESOLVE. Tim Minerals on page 22.) The program encour- manufacturers, retailers, consumers, and has thirty years of experience as a Canadian ages supply-chain innovation and direct governments will want to know that compa- Diplomat including work at the Head of sourcing from conflict-free sites in countries nies are clean of conflict both upstream and Mission level in Palestine, Africa, Latin of concern, mixing supply-chain transpar- downstream. OECD guidance and other initia- America and Afghanistan. In 2004, Tim was ency with development strategies linked to tives make this possible. This will extend to Chairman of the Kimberley Process to ban supply-chain incentives. other commodities and products. conflict diamonds.

Yet whether we are buying a wedding ring or a cell phone, society wants to know that no harm was done and that our purchases contribute to peace and development.

September 2014 21 Source: Michael Loch

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TAKING THE CONFLICT OUT

OF CONFLICT MINERALS Michael Loch

In 2007, the electronics industry and the passing of Section 1502 of the US became the target of activist groups Dodd-Frank Act. Section 1502 covers assess- who argued that downstream companies ment and reporting requirements for all US to artisanal mining were contributing to publicly-traded companies whose products violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo contain tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold (DRC). At the same time, many recognized which the Act defines as conflict minerals. that the industry could also be a positive force. The suspension and Section 1502 were Subsequent studies highlighted a significant meant to target mafia-like groups benefiting lack of transparency in the global supply chain from artisanal mining, but the effect was for tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold, and that indiscriminate and global markets felt most companies did not know the origin of the effect. the minerals they used. In response, the industry launched two initiatives to establish Official exports of tin, tantalum, and tung- systems of traceability and transparency in sten from the Kivus and Maniema Provinces, the supply chain while supporting legitimate a UN Group of Experts reported, essentially sourcing of DRC minerals. stopped. The DRC is rich, for example, in coltan, a mineral that contains tantalum, In 2010, artisanal mining activities in eastern which is used in capacitors found in DRC slowed to a near standstill in the wake electronics and other devices. Prices of of the DRC presidential mining suspension tantalum spiked after the ban, given that

22 BUILDING PEACE approximately 15 percent of the world’s For miners, the program demonstrates that supply originates in the DRC, creating particular uncertainty in the electronics legitimate material is sold in line with global industry, which accounts for up to 60 percent pricing and not discounted, thus allowing of tantalum use worldwide. more money to remain in the region and In early 2011, the mining suspension was improve the livelihoods of those involved. lifted, but in its place came a de facto embargo as companies had begun to see sourcing from the region as a risk. As a For miners, the program demonstrates that private-sector strategy to ensure supply chain result, the industry came under enormous legitimate material is sold in line with global transparency and incentives. The future of pressure to support economic development pricing and not discounted, thus allowing Solutions for Hope is to move from pilots in the region, though new systems had not more money to remain in the region and to best practice and it is continuing to look been fully tested and downstream compa- improve the livelihoods of those involved. for partners to replicate and innovate. nies, most of which are removed from the Another critical aspect of the project is its mining process itself, were not even sure community reinvestment component which, Michael Loch is Director of Supply Chain how to directly engage. in this case, helped implement infrastructure Corporate Responsibility for Motorola and social programs such as roads, bridges, Solutions. He has played a major role in the Under these conditions, Solutions for Hope medical facilities, and schools. Proof of development and implementation of was born. Launched in July, 2011 in the concept is thus demonstrated. Solutions for Hope and the Public Private DRC’s Katanga Province, the program Alliance for Responsible Minerals Trade created its closed-pipe supply model, which The notion that the concept is also scalable where he serves on the Governance uses a defined set of supply chain suppliers. came when Solutions for Hope inspired the Committee. He also chairs the Conflict-Free The project built industry-wide confidence Conflict-Free Tin Initiative, funded by the Sourcing Initiative. by showing that transparent sourcing is Dutch Foreign Ministry in 2012 to source possible, supported the development and tin from South Kivu Province using the implementation of existing initiatives, and closed-pipe model. In a more recent effort, provided a conflict-free source of tantalum a multi-stakeholder meeting convened in Source: Michael Loch that would support the continuity of supply February, 2014 by the US nonprofit and minimize pricing fluctuations in the RESOLVE, yielded the Cadenas de Paz global supply chain. (Spanish for “chains of peace”) project in Colombia, a transparency and development Legitimizing the minerals trade in the DRC program to support OECD compliance with is critical to creating a peace economy in supply-chain due diligence. the African Great Lakes region. Solutions for Hope creates economic benefits for The closed-pipe supply line approach has artisanal miners, their families, and the potential to prevent natural resource communities. conflicts when it is used as part of a broader,

Most companies did not know the origin of the minerals they used. In response, the industry launched two initiatives to establish systems of traceability and transparency in the supply chain.

September 2014 23 Source: Flickr (United Nations)

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THE TRUST DEFICIT AND STABLE GOVERNANCE Clare Lockhart

Most people do not trust their govern- What does governance mean, and what is persist in Nigeria, India, and the Philippines, ments. Surveys suggest that world- good governance? Getting governance right where popular grievances over exclusion and wide, across the general public and is both political and technical. What can governance continue. Meanwhile, violent among decision makers, the figure is appear as tedious technicalities in func- crime is on the rise in Honduras, El Salvador, now below 45 percent. This growing tioning states assume critical importance in and Guatemala; their citizens’ loss of trust in deficit looks set to drive future instability and states where good governance is lacking. their countries’ futures has fueled a wave of conflict as increasing numbers of people feel The heart of governance is accountability, migration quickly becoming a humanitarian excluded and shift their loyalties. Fractures which requires knowledge of procurement, emergency. can occur along regional, ethnic and tribal, accounting, and auditing. Governance is not or economic lines—and typically a combina- abstract. It exists in reference to the gover- In many such places, the drivers of economic tion of them. Syria, Sudan, Iraq, Nigeria, and nance of particular sectors, services, and growth are a double-edged sword; growing the states of the former Yugoslavia are just a assets: governing the security sector is quite populations, expanding cities, and hyper- few examples of broken states. different from governing the health sector connectedness are also risk factors. Many or the extractive assets. The shape of gover- struggling cities and states are already unable The picture is not all bleak, however. In the nance will, of course, vary by state. to provide services to their populations, a last decade, Colombia, Rwanda, Nepal, and problem that dramatic population growth Sierra Leone, to name a few, have all made Some countries, however, remain locked in will only compound. The illicit economy’s impressive strides in advancing accountable a self-reinforcing trap of conflict and weak tentacles choke government resources and and inclusive governance. Some are breaking governance wherein dissatisfaction drives capacity, and illegitimate flows often over- free of conflict traps and many more are conflict, which in turn fuels mistrust. Pakistan, whelm the legitimate. harnessing drivers for growth and stability: Nigeria, Mali, and the Democratic Republic young populations, significant natural of the Congo have recently dropped on several Weakening states, strained resources, shadow resources, and technology. international indices. Subnational conflicts economies, and swelling and increasingly

24 BUILDING PEACE Weakening states, strained resources, shadow economies, and swelling and increasingly digitalized populations challenge government legitimacy, [widening] the gap between what is expected of governments and what they deliver. In many cases, the gap leads to violence.

digitalized populations challenge government inclusion in particular. Successful peace 1. Recognizing that the citizenry provides legitimacy. Their cumulative effect tends to processes generally embody this principle, the most durable source of stability widen the gap between what is expected of and if the internal processes are well and legitimacy, that broad engage- governments and what they deliver. In many designed, external support can reinforce ment rather than token representation cases, the gap leads to violence. stability. is critical. 2. Having a plan for the day after, because How can this trajectory be reversed? External The wrong kind of peace deals, such as pacts governing—inclusively, fairly, and intervention has recognizable limitations, among extremist elites, can exacerbate legiti- justly—is far more important than as demonstrated by the gap between invest- macy gaps because of their inherent unfair- either forming the government or ment and outcomes in Afghanistan and Iraq. ness as well as the conditions for corruption striking the deal if peace is to last. Successful transformations are more and misgovernance they create. Peace deals, 3. Allocating decision rights judiciously commonly driven from within when internal even elite pacts, are certainly compelling and establishing the right forms of conditions create momentum for change, given their promise of temporary respite accountability at the most appropriate such as in Colombia. Can external aid reduce from conflict. Elite deals often propel coun- level because decentralization alone is the legitimacy gap? In theory, yes. In prac- tries back to conflict, however, in an ever- not the whole answer. tice, it can exacerbate it. Aid problems result worsening spiral of bad governance, 4. Finding the right mesh between bureau- from unequal distribution, practices that criminality, and mistrust. cratic and tribal and traditional forms fragment rule of law, and population margin- of governance because one model never alization and alienation. Bypassing govern- Natural resources are also critical to most fits all. ment institutions, an aid-based shadow peace deals. Sound resource management 5. Understanding that, for most citizens, state—however benignly intentioned—can can drive prosperity and peace; poor manage- security is a good and maintaining cause exactly the same problems as a crime- ment, and especially inequitable distribution, order a key priority—the question of or corruption-based shadow state, such as all too often drive conflict. Power-sharing establishing a legitimate monopoly on in Equatorial Guinea. deals that carve up the state and its ministries the use of force is still a concern in as spoils of war struggle to achieve long- many countries. What, then, is behind successful transforma- term peace. By allocating the right to live tions? The key drivers appear to be a combi- off revenues and to sell assets and sinecures, Recognizing that all contexts are different nation of good leadership and the creation they entrench networks of corruption, and from each other, these principles can offer of favorable political conditions. Good lead- by formalizing inequalities they sow the some guidance for peacemakers both within ership is characterized by inclusiveness: the seeds of their own destruction. When the civil society and government in their efforts will and means to reach beyond a narrow driving grievance is bad governance, to build, create, and maintain peaceful constituency of self-interest. Favorable providing large constituencies with fair societies. conditions enable coalitions of moderate governance will fare better than providing constituencies to coalesce around an agenda narrow groups with a license to steal. Clare Lockhart is Co-founder and Director for political change. Peace processes and of ISE, the Institute for State Effectiveness, elections certainly contribute to transforma- With these principles in mind, peacemakers an organization that supports leaders and tions, but are not enough on their own. must scrutinize which type of peace process managers seeking to make transitions to will lead to greater stability and when, as stability and prosperity. She is co-author of The key to resolving legitimacy gaps is well as what the linkages between peace and Fixing Failed States, and author of a number governance quality—the extent to which it governance are. A few common principles of articles on peacebuilding, and economic meets citizen expectations, for fairness and underpin recent peacemaking efforts: and social development.

September 2014 25 Source: Flickr (OakleyOriginals)

FEATURES

WATER, WATER, DISAPPEARING EVERYWHERE Ilmas Futehally

Fifty years ago, Lake Chad in Africa had the world—including the Yellow and the a surface area of 25,000 square kilo- Yangtze, the Ganges and the Indus, the meters. Today, it has less than 2,000. Euphrates and the Jordan, and the Nile—will The surface area of the Aral Sea in Central see a reduction of at least 25 to 30 percent Asia has dropped by half, from 66,000 to in their flow from evaporation, desertifica- 33,000 km2, and the Dead Sea in the Middle tion, climate change, and pollution. The East from almost 1,000 to 650 km2. Fifty years climate change debate is highly focused on from now, Lake Chad is at risk of disappearing atmospheric pollution and energy, but there altogether. Thirty years from now, the Aral is a growing realization of the close links Sea and the Dead Sea may become small between climatic and environmental factors lakes. China, the emerging superpower, may and the future flow and quality of water soon see Lake Poyang, its largest freshwater through melting glaciers, deforestation, lake, evaporate—as many as 3,000 small lakes changes in precipitation, and emission of in the source region of the Yellow River have waste into fresh water. done so in the last two decades. The next thirty years will also see a strong As lakes disappear, rivers are either being increase in demand for water—for hydro- depleted or severely polluted. Large stretches electricity, irrigation, and urbanization. At the of the Ganges, the Nile, and the Yangtze are same time, the 25-30 percent reduction in already biologically dead. Over the next water flow will lead to a drop in food grain thirty years, some of the mightiest rivers in production in China, India, Bangladesh,

26 BUILDING PEACE Egypt, and the Middle East. The net result of “Any two countries engaged in active water this decrease will be a gap between demand and supply of food grains of approximately cooperation do not go to war for any reason 200 to 300 million tons by 2040 in interna- whatsoever, including land, religion, economy tional markets. China and India, reasonably or terrorism.” self-sufficient in 2014, may become major importers of food grains by 2040. If all this unfolds, commodity prices will skyrocket, affecting the poor worldwide and making structured process to turn water from a behind the new architecture of water and food riots, migration, and conflicts within and source of potential crisis to an instrument peace, the alternative grim scenario of water between countries inevitable. of cooperation—is essential. Specifically, it war can still be averted before the world consists of creating regional mechanisms crosses the tipping point. The main theater of crisis and conflict driven for cooperation, engaging mainstream polit- by depletion of water resources will be from ical leaders from rival riparian countries, Ilmas Futehally is Executive Director and Southeast Asia via South Asia and Central and enabling them to negotiate trade-offs Co-founder of Strategic Foresight Group. Asia to Turkey and from Egypt along the between water and other public goods. Such She has led projects on water security in the eastern and central parts of Africa to Kenya mechanisms are already in place in Europe, Himalayan River Basins and the Middle and Burundi (See Figure 1). North and South America, and West Africa. East and has authored several volumes on conflict issues. What could change this ominous scenario? The next decade will see the emergence of The good news is that mere decline in the global mechanisms—both innovative legal availability of water does not necessarily and diplomatic instruments—for resolving lead to violence. Singapore and Senegal are water-related disputes and promoting trans- examples of how to avoid conflicts through boundary water cooperation. If the interna- good water governance and transboundary tional community mobilizes political will cooperation. Mega Arc of Hydro-Insecurity

A recent study by Strategic Foresight Group Figure 1: Mega Arc of Hydro-Insecurity (SFG) on 205 shared river basins from 148 IRTYSH countries concludes: “Any two countries Source: Strategic Foresight Group VOLGA ILI engaged in active water cooperation do not ARAL SEA CASPIAN SEA go to war for any reason whatsoever, including BLACK SEA land, religion, economy or terrorism.” The AMU DARYA

key to peace thus lies in the intensity of coop- YELLOW YELLOW URMIA SEA eration as measured by the water cooperation LESSER ZAB Kabul TIGRIS Han KARKHEH Chenab MEDITERRANEAN BARADA Jhelum Min quotient (WCQ) the report introduces. The SEA JORDAN HELMAND Ravi Yalong KARUN YANGTZE EAST CHINA HIRMAND Sutlej SEA WCQ is a new tool developed by SFG and EUPHRATES GANGES BRAHMAPUTRA DISI Yamuna MOUNTAIN AQUIFER INDUS introduced to the international community by AQUIFER Chambal Gandak Koshi HRH Prince Hassan, Chairman of UN SALWEEN MEKONG RED Secretary General’s Water Board. It uses ten SEA NILE parameters—including economic, environ- ARABIAN BAY OF SEA BENGAL mental, institutional, legal, political, and tech- Sekong Sesan nical factors—to examine both legal and Srepok TANA WHITE NILE operational cooperation between countries BLUE NILE Gibe that share a water body. Countries are assessed OMO on a scale of 0 to 100, with countries at risk scoring below 35. VICTORIA INDIAN PANGANI OCEAN To promote active water cooperation, the Blue Peace framework—which defines a Disclaimer : Outlines and borders on this map are for illustrative purposes only.

September 2014 27 Source: Flickr (isafmedia)

PROOF OF IMPACT

THE FUTURE IS EVALUATION AND IMPACT NOW IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES Melanie Kawano-Chiu

While there is still much we do not For instance, a collaborative effort among know about how to achieve, sustain, CARE International and other local and and maintain peace, it is clear that peace international NGOs, municipal governments, is necessary for a community to thrive. and international organizations was exam- However, achieving peace is not as simple as ined by CDA Collaborative Learning to increasing investment in peacebuilding initia- determine why there was a marked lack of tives. This is a necessary first step, but hardly violence in certain communities during the sufficient. Building peace is a complex, long- widespread riots of 2004 in Kosovo. term, multi-faceted endeavor that requires Contrary to what many thought would more reliable information to make better prevent violence in these interethnic commu- program design, investment, and policy deci- nities, the research found that places with sions. Monitoring and evaluation (M & E)— greater interethnic interaction did not experi- when resourced adequately, practiced well, ence less violence. In fact, prevention strate- and integrated at every level of program gies that focused on promoting design and implementation, decision-making, multi-ethnicity actually had the unintended and policymaking—can prove what did or consequence of intensifying divisions. didn’t happen and help improve decisions and Unexpected insights into the effects of practice the next time around. peacebuilding programs such as these,

28 BUILDING PEACE highlight the critical importance of reflection of the key aspects of the peace process in will be a given so that what is now called through monitoring and evaluation. Afghanistan. Female leaders from civil evaluation will become embedded in peace- society organizations around the country are building practice. However, evaluation practices and their representing Afghani women in the peace- ability to provide evidence in peacebuilding building process. As important as their role › Good evidence will not be defined are still nascent. Over the past two decades, is, do these highly-educated and experienced by the use of a handful of expensive, the peacebuilding community has made women represent the average woman? If the quantitative evaluation methodolo- significant strides in its evaluation practice answer is no, how then will a more truly gies. Methodologies that were not created by making evaluation a requirement of representative group of women be integrated with complexity in mind, for instance those program funding, developing technical guid- into programs and evaluation? Ideally, reflec- that originated in clinical environments ance and tools to build evaluation capacity tion and strong monitoring and evaluation holding certain variables constant while and developing structures and multi-sector would highlight programming gaps like other variables were tested, will not limit partnerships that foster shared learning and this—and allow for changes to be made. the definition and validity of evidence. increased methodological rigor. Now, 2015 Instead, a wide spectrum of more nuanced has been designated the International Year › More equitable relationships processes and methods that can be applied of Evaluation by a variety of global organi- between external evaluators who at various points in a program cycle will be zations and agencies. With stakeholders from come in to assess a program and incorporated. around the world highlighting the need for internal staff roles. This trend is already better evaluation, it will be a benchmark beginning with the increased popularity of › Evaluation findings will be used to year that can be used to assess progress on participatory methods like developmental adjust not just peacebuilding, but measuring and learning into the future. evaluation and action evaluation. It is partic- development and security programs, ularly useful in highly-dynamic conflict policies and approaches through calcu- When I asked a variety of evaluation experts contexts, where rapid programming adapta- lated, stakeholder-led, and thoughtful risks. from around the world where they thought tion is needed, and in complex situations. The current funding model of peacebuilding the field would be—should be—in its evalu- Online access to evaluation trainings, necessitates a degree of accountability. A ation practice in another two decades, I was networks, resources, mentorship, and guid- donor has the right to know whether or not struck by the normality of their answers. ance on how to use evaluation data to make an organization used allocated funds as they Most saw the future of evaluation as simply decisions will become more readily available said they would. More importantly though, a more consistent application of what we regardless of one’s location or funds, making local partners and communities need to know already know to be evaluation best practices exchanges among internal staff and external how programs and actions led by interna- in the present: evaluators somewhat more even. tional actors have affected their lives and their future. As better evaluation efforts and › Fully-integrated stakeholder and › Real-time, applied learning based analysis of those findings lead to better civil society input and involvement on continuous feedback loops from accountability with local partners, local at every stage of the program design, ongoing programs. Evaluation tends to communities will be able to have a higher evaluation, and learning process. be practiced as a siloed activity at the end degree of say in adjusting programs. Today, there is still a lack of real local repre- of a program. Ideally, technical steps like sentation in program design and evaluation. baselines and the systemic thinking about As complex as this list may sound, we can For instance, women’s participation is one the complexity of the program and context, start to implement these evaluation trends and practices today. We know what needs to be done, and we know how to do it. But some challenges do exist to realizing this Most saw the future of evaluation vision. Public and private funders operate under a number of pressures that create as simply a more consistent unrealistic expectations and timeframes for “successful” results and peace efforts. A application of what we already know scarcity of funds leads program staff to to be evaluation best practices in perceive monitoring and evaluation as a competitor, rather than an enabler, of the present. program activities. At the same time, donor

September 2014 29 PROOF OF IMPACT

requirements reinforce the impression that Melanie Kawano-Chiu is Director of M&E is externally imposed, rather than an Learning and Evaluation at the Alliance for integral part of good practice and learning. Peacebuilding (AfP). She leads the Consequently, many organizations fail to Peacebuilding Evaluation Consortium, a include M&E in personnel assessments. With partnership of AfP, CDA Collaborative neither incentives nor consequences for Learning, Mercy Corps, Search for Common M&E, there is a low perceived need for Ground, and the US Institute of Peace, to learning and/or feedback. Finally, and foster whole-of-field solutions to the chal- perhaps most importantly, the overall system lenge of evaluation in conflict-affected is not designed to be accountable to local settings. The PEC is made possible by the needs and priorities. Programs are generally Carnegie Corporation of New York. designed in response to donor requirements or in line with an organization’s favorite With input from: Robert Berg, Founding methodologies. Director of Evaluation, the US Agency for International Development and the Founding The future of peacebuilding evaluation—and Chair of Evaluation, OECD-DAC; Andrew accordingly, the legitimacy of peacebuilding Blum, Vice President for Program practice—will be based on a shift of attitudes Management and Evaluation, the US that welcomes calculated, evidence-based Institute of Peace; Diana Chigas, risks, funds good research, and encourages Co-Director of the Reflecting on Peace a redefinition—and reconditioning of the Program, CDA Collaborative Learning; consequences—of success and failure. As a Vanessa Corlazolli, Senior DM&E Manager, new generation of peacebuilders, funders, Institutional Learning, Search for Common and policymakers brings a comfort and Ground; Asela Kalugampitiya, International familiarity with technology and an ever- Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist, UN increasing human interconnectedness gives Population Fund, Sri Lanka; Thania people even more options to choose from, Paffenholz, Senior Researcher, the Graduate metrics will become even more important Institute’s Centre on Conflict, Peacebuilding to help them gauge whether or not they made and Development; Peter Woodrow, Executive the right decision, and if they should make Director, CDA Collaborative Learning. that choice again. Future success will depend on how well we, as a field, can face the day- to-day uncertainty in conflict zones and allow for the flexibility, responsiveness, and inclusion of local partners as leaders that are necessary for effective peacebuilding.

30 BUILDING PEACE Source: Flickr (Dr. Wendy Longo)

NOTES ON POLICY

NOOSPHERE AND NOOPOLITIK

OUR In 1922, not long after the end of the Sadly, two global wars and countless insur- “war to end all wars” and at the begin- gencies have been waged since then. Social TRANSCENDENTAL ning of what has since proved one of the revolutions and modern networked terrorism bloodiest centuries in recorded history, the have become commonplace. Nation-states DESTINATION French scientist and theologian Pierre have proliferated, many of them—like South Teilhard de Chardin envisioned everyone’s Sudan—born failing. It is ironic that the An essay by John Arquilla being able to communicate with everyone, United Nations, which has seen its member- swiftly and efficiently. This vision was not ship grow nearly four-fold since its founding the Internet but what he called a global in 1945, has been able to do so little to contain “realm of the mind.” It would, he maintained, or reverse the course of conflict and suffering, provide a profound impetus to peace. especially in those places where the innocent Contrary to Thomas Hobbes’s notion of a and helpless are the most preyed upon. world driven by “the war of all against all,” Teilhard’s notion was of a global conscious- Cause for concern is no less when it comes ness. What he termed the noosphere—a to the fundamental peace paradigm of our neologism whose root is the Greek noos, time—that the spread of democracy will meaning mind—was, in his view, the next contribute to global amity. This concept was step in the evolution of mankind toward an in fact first articulated by Immanuel Kant ethical paradigm more concerned with in his 1795 essay “Perpetual Peace.” The pursuing what is right than with the power past decade of American-led efforts to pursue politics of might. a Kantian democracy agenda by force of

September 2014 31 NOTES ON POLICY

arms, however, has for the most part simply The noosphere was … the next step in the brought fresh miseries—to Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and beyond. Perhaps the problem evolution of mankind toward an ethical is not with democratization per se, but that paradigm more concerned with pursuing US foreign policy has become far too mili- what is right than with the power politics tarized—a by-product of the realpolitik- oriented belief that the dissolution of the of might. Soviet Union left America alone in a position of global leadership. The costly, mixed mili- tary results of Washington’s wars since 9/11 glimmerings of noopolitik can be seen in imagine the Internet serving as a vehicle for may thus reflect an over-reliance on force— nineteenth-century antislavery movements cooperation, the sharing of hopeful stories; and its corollary, continuing policy blindness as well as in early civil society efforts to the communications link between moderate toward the great opportunity to test Teilhard’s curb colonial abuses of indigenous peoples. citizens creating positive social change; and intriguing hypothesis about connectivity The telegraph, what Tom Standage has called as a voice for democratic action? Many and amity. the Victorian Internet, helped these move- peacebuilding organizations are already ments back then. Today, the global conscious- doing this; for example, Soliya’s online It is now fifteen years since David Ronfeldt ness that technology has wrought has the platform for improving understanding and I advanced the argument that the Internet opportunity to go even further, creating a between American and Middle Eastern and World Wide Web were not only realizing global conscience as well. That this has not students. If movements of this sort can thrive Teilhard’s dream of a noosphere, but that yet happened is testament to the persistent and multiply, then perhaps Teilhard’s vision their rise heralded the emergence of pull of realpolitik. This is sadly so, given of a peaceful noosphere will be realized. noopolitik, a mode of statecraft driven by the poor results—at massive material and the attractiveness of ethical values that form human cost—of power politics in our time. John Arquilla is professor of defense analysis the core of our common humanity. This is at the Naval Postgraduate School. His writ- something much more than soft power, Clearly, Teilhard’s moment has come. The ings cover a wide range of topics in inter- which is all about persuasiveness, and which noosphere is here. Noopolitik looms, if we national security affairs. In recent years, can be used for good or ill. Noopolitik is but see it, and humankind’s transcendental Foreign Policy Magazine has listed him about acknowledging what is right and just, destination is within reach. In today’s world, among the world’s “top 100 global thinkers.” as a basis for negotiated settlements to we are constantly reminded of the darker conflict, peaceful interactions, and the aspects of increased connectivity: more protection of human dignity. intrusive intelligence gathering, aggressive cyberwarfare, and cyberterrorism. What we Unfortunately, this idea remains “on the don’t think about enough is the role that shelf,” not only in the United States, but also “cyber” can play in fostering peace by in most halls of power in all too many nation- forging global interconnections—this was states. The sword is not yet sheathed. Some Teilhard’s dream. What if we, too, could

In today’s world, we are constantly reminded of the darker aspects of increased connectivity: more intrusive intelligence gathering, aggressive cyberwarfare, and cyberterrorism. What we don’t think about enough is the role that “cyber” can play in fostering peace by forging global interconnections.

32 BUILDING PEACE Source: Flickr (Photo RNW.org)

NOTES ON POLICY TECHNOLOGY: PROGRESS AND POTENTIAL Sanjana Hattotuwa

We didn’t know what the word Even with a shared goal of saving lives, infor- malicious SMS can transmit violence and “tsunami” meant when it hit Sri mation flow can be slow or even become violent responses almost instantaneously Lanka on December 26, 2004. But our trapped across various agencies and depart- across vast distances in the way that, at the ignorance extended far beyond meteorolog- ments. Early-warning and disaster-response start of the Rwandan genocide in 1994, for ical phenomena—ten years ago, lives were platforms have become increasingly instance, hateful and incendiary messages lost because information and communica- successful in generating, disseminating, were transmitted via radio. tions technologies around early warning and analyzing, and visualizing critical informa- response were non-existent. Officials from tion. At the same time, they have become less Most policymakers now grasp the positive the government’s meteorology department, capable of seamlessly sharing information potential of technology, but there are less who didn’t realize a tsunami was entirely with other systems, standards, and platforms positive, more hurtful applications as well. unrelated to atmospheric conditions, tried used by others for the same relief operations. The central challenge today, shared by the to address mass panic over radio and TV At the time of the tsunami, it was a lack of UN, civil society, governments, Bretton saying the skies would be clear. With no information and awareness that killed so Woods institutions and others, is to outsmart early warning in place, no training on what many. Ten years hence, it is information technologies that help promote hate, hurt to do, where to go, or where to turn for scatter, data lock-in, and the lack of coherent and harm and instead, imagine and promote updates, a disaster occurred that could have governance around information dissemination technological content and initiatives to been largely prevented. The tsunami was a that continues to impede the effective and counter radicalization and build resilience. wake-up call around how desperately coun- efficient response to emergencies. From ISIS in Iraq to the promotion of hate tries impacted by the tragedy needed more speech in Sri Lanka by militant monks, resilient and effective mechanisms around Beyond natural disasters, peacebuilding social media, the Internet, and mobile apps disaster warning. praxis has also seen unprecedented growth are also used to fan violence. Success in in the use of technology for positive, construc- countering this online incitement language Since 2004, despite vast technological tive action—in just over a decade—from early depends on many factors; key among them advancements in ‘last-mile’ alerting—aimed warning and response to post-war recovery are governance and leadership, innovations at providing communities with a system to and rebuilding. A plethora of examples can in technology (e.g. mesh networking to serve receive hazard information for early warning, be found around the world, from simple rural communities), and strategic invest- common alerting protocols, and apps on mobile apps (e.g. what is already used in ments in content generation to counter hate smartphones to by-the-minute updates over Afghanistan around the use of mobile phones (e.g. Umati). social media, complex challenges remain. in peacebuilding) and text messaging (e.g. Policy-making around more efficient and PeaceTXT) to the use of big data for peace- The progress, potential, and new challenges effective disaster response, preparedness, and building. Some governments now have offi- of technology provoke a simple question of recovery can become mired in bureaucracy. cial Twitter hashtags for crises, allowing users us: we all often say technology saves lives, Sharing knowledge in a timely and effective to easily find information in emergencies. but how far and much are we willing to really manner often remains hostage to officials and And yet without, for example, investments invest to make sure it really does? senior leadership that believe hoarding infor- around media literacy within fragile societies mation is more important than releasing it to or with a repressive polity, technology growth Sanjana Hattotuwa is the Founding Editor other agencies, humanitarian actors, and a also creates the space for rumour and propa- of Groundviews, an award-winning citizen broader public. ganda to exacerbate violence. An ill-timed or journalism initiative based in Sri Lanka.

From ISIS in Iraq to the promotion of hate speech in Sri Lanka by militant monks, social media, the Internet, and mobile apps are also used to fan violence.

September 2014 33 Source: Flickr (Spot Us)

REVIEWS

OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THE COMING AGE OF THE URBAN GUERRILLA

Author: David Kilcullen Book Review by Robert Muggah

The title of David Kilcullen’s latest landlocked areas, and against conventional volume, Out of the Mountains: enemies. He is also making a plea—to mili- The Coming Age of the Urban tary tacticians, aid workers and diplomats— Guerrilla, takes a leaf from Osama to get their heads out of the mountains and bin Laden’s book. According to a CNN see the future for what it is: urban, coastal, reporter, bin Laden told his sons to memorize and networked. every rock and pebble on the routes between Tora Bora in Pakistan and their various The central thrust of David Kilcullen’s book compounds in Afghanistan. “We never know is elegantly simple: he is proposing a grand when war will strike . . . we must know our narrative for the future of warfare, or way out of the mountains.” Kilcullen is, of “forever wars,” and recommending that course, making a broader point beyond the war-fighters and peacebuilders prepare them- life-preserving benefits of high-altitude selves accordingly. Kilcullen elaborates what orienteering; he is reminding readers that he refers to as four key megatrends—popu- the defining experience of war for the most lation growth, urbanization, littoralization recent generation of western militaries is (the tendency of populations to cluster on Afghanistan and Iraq. These were irregular coastlines) and networked connectivity— conflicts taking place predominantly in rural, which together are shaping chaos and

34 BUILDING PEACE The central thrust of David Kilcullen’s book is elegantly simple: he is proposing a grand narrative for the future of warfare, or “forever wars,” and recommending that war-fighters and peacebuilders prepare themselves accordingly.

disorder in the twenty-first century. In so this transition to unrest. Meanwhile, urban hotspots. First, drawing on examples as doing, he is warning the world’s future diplo- planners have documented how a massive wide-ranging as Afghanistan, Colombia, mats, soldiers, and aid workers that they shift in humanity is occurring from rural Jamaica, Mexico, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, must anticipate these trends and learn how areas to cities and their peripheries, espe- he urges readers to see cities as living organ- to mitigate their associated risks. What is cially in the Americas, Africa, and Asia, isms and harness the potential of their resi- more, they would do well to support local resulting in sprawling conurbations, hyper- dents. This means designing public safety institutions if they—that is everyone—is to cities, and megacities. Likewise, futurists into the architecture of cities, planning thrive and live in a future free of fear. If they routinely describe how unprecedented participatory and community-based systems fail to do all of this, Kilcullen is convinced increases in connectivity are catalyzing new of monitoring, and investing in environ- that the world will be confronted with forms of open empowerment along with mental design approaches such as charter rampant, out-of-control, and unending digital (and real) revolution. But few authors agreements co-designed with local residents. violence. before Kilcullen have brought these other- As any aid worker knows, more police and wise disparate strands together so tightly. soldiers is not a sustainable solution. Second, There is a touch of déja-vu in Kilcullen’s Kilcullen shows how urban safety is a neces- treatment of the transformation of organized Kilcullen is clearly fascinated with his grand sary but insufficient measure of successful violence. Drawing on the carefully-cited theory of convergence. And in his haste to intervention. What is needed is not just more work of a plethora of scholars, he argues set it out, he unintentionally constructs a security and reduction of violence, but also that irregular wars—military operations few straw men. He claims to reject simplistic an acceptable level of service provision and against non-state actors—are supplanting or “binary” explanations of war with their functioning urban environments. Third, conventional wars. He confirms the obvious assumption of a single defining risk factor. he draws attention to the transformative in saying that warfare in various guises will He also disdains “academic” views of insur- nature of new technologies and connectivity. undoubtedly continue, conflict being the gency, terrorism, narcotics, and gangs that People can connect with national and inter- permanent social institution that it is. None work in splendid isolation of one another. national information flows to an unprece- of this is new (nor does Kilcullen imply as Instead, Kilcullen favors an “ecosystem” dented degree, however ineffective the much). Yet it is his treatment of how the approach that envisions conflicts as government. contexts of these wars—the underlying nonlinear, many-sided, and messy. Yet there demographic, geographic, and technological are few serious scholars or practitioners who While there is much to redeem Out of the environments—are undergoing profound would disagree with this characterization, Mountains, it does have a whiff of dystopia changes that is novel. Kilcullen’s contribu- regardless of whether they have field experi- about it. Kilcullen writes with the same pace tion is in the way he conjures up a unified ence or not. And there is growing interest and pessimism as Robert Kaplan (The theory for future conflict. And in the process, in analogous concepts drawn from ecosys- Coming Anarchy) and Mike Davis (Planet he repeatedly pays tribute to the many gurus tems theory such as “resilience” that explain of the Slums). He also brings that same hard- who helped him assemble the pieces. how societies cope, adapt, and potentially ened vision from the frontlines, moving with build back better in the midst of war and unnerving speed between the world’s most After all, demographers, geographers and disaster. Many of Kilcullen’s ideas are very intractable war zones and ungoverned technologists have been busy making analo- much aligned with established thinking in spaces. There are times when the prose slips gous predictions for years. Demographers donor, defense, and development circuits. into deterministic and even Malthusian around the world have projected breakneck tones, especially when describing specific population growth in the twenty-first Out of the Mountains nevertheless reinforces cities in Africa and South Asia. He writes century—especially in under-developed the importance of thinking differently about ominously of “carrying capacities” of devel- coastal, or littoral, areas—and have linked future engagement in the world’s urban oping country cities, the rise of pandemics

September 2014 35 REVIEWS

While hard to deny that these threats exist in fragile cities such as Karachi and Lagos, are they really worldwide trends? Are they exclusive only to low- and middle-income cities? Do we not see similar challenges in inner-city neighborhoods of Baltimore, Detroit, New Orleans or Oakland where homicide rates often rival those of urban centers in the Americas, Africa, and Asia?

from slums, and the cataclysmic risks to

food security and water supplies. While hard Source: Flickr (Robert) to deny that these threats exist in fragile cities such as Karachi and Lagos, are they really worldwide trends? Are they exclusive only to low- and middle-income cities? Do we not see similar challenges in inner-city neighborhoods of Baltimore, Detroit, New Orleans or Oakland where homicide rates often rival those of urban centers in the Americas, Africa, and Asia?

Owing to his wide-ranging experience in counter-insurgency from around the world, Kilcullen is well placed to stitch together a grand narrative. Yet in constructing his meta- theory, he also risks oversimplifying the commonalities between settings as varied as Kingston, Kabul, and Karachi. And there is one final puzzling question that some readers, this one included, might ask part- way through the volume: who, ultimately, is the end reader of this volume? As the author himself acknowledges, militaries and Robert Muggah is Research Director of the urban planners have long anticipated the Igarapé Institute in Brazil and also directs inexorable pressures shaping city growth the SecDev Foundation in Canada. In addi- and conflict. Counter-insurgency manuals tion to advising the United Nations and in the US have also acknowledged these World Bank, he works with new technology trends for years, as have an increasing groups to develop data-driven tools to number of development and relief agencies. improve safety and security. The book’s subtitle, The Coming Age of the Urban Guerilla, suggests that the target audience is primarily western militaries. If that is the case, will they be entirely surprised by what Kilcullen has to say? If, instead, the book is also targeting diplomats and aid workers, then it may in fact inspire a new generation to prepare themselves for the coming storm.

36 BUILDING PEACE Source: Jonathan Furmanski

REVIEWS

a film by Rachel Boynton

Film Review by BIG MEN Adiel Suarez-Murias

Big Men gives viewers fly-on-the-wall funded the vast endeavor; and the Ghanaian Motivated by the country’s stark social ineq- access to boardrooms of billion-dollar politicians who represent their country in uity, militant groups like this one known as oil deals, intimate chats with African royalty, the proceedings. the “Deadly Underdogs” have been sabo- and strategy sessions with an underground taging oil pipelines since 2005, demanding a militant group as the story behind big oil Juxtaposed with the story of Jubilee share of the profits for the people of the Niger unfolds in a compelling mix of capitalism, throughout the film is another account—of Delta. Boynton has a candid interview with corruption, and greed. Filmmaker Rachel Nigeria’s oil economy. A vivid example of one of its members. Wearing a ski mask and Boynton set out to illustrate what happens crumbled state legitimacy, Nigeria is consis- absentmindedly shuffling cartridges in his when American corporate interests meet West tently ranked one of the most corrupt coun- hand, he beams as he speaks of how deeply African politics while probing broader ques- tries in the world—Nigerian officials have he loves his son. “He can do better,” he tions of human nature and motivation. stolen hundreds of billions of dollars, much declares. “That is why we are in this struggle.” of it oil money. Though their country is one At the center of the storyline is Jubilee oil field. of the world’s largest oil exporters, the The decline of this nearby African nation is Discovered off the coast of Ghana in 2007, Nigerian people are worse off since oil was depicted as a cautionary tale for Ghana’s Jubilee was big news: with proven reserves of discovered over 50 years ago. budding relationship with oil—the “resource 3 billion barrels and the first commercial oil curse” realized. And while the backdrop of field in Ghanaian history, its development was As the camera pans over the Niger Delta, Nigeria’s escalating violence seemed some- received with great anticipation by the the heart of Nigeria’s oil production, a dilapi- what heavy-handed and overly didactic at Ghanaian people . . . and its American inves- dated houseboat floating by and families times, it remains a tangible representation of tors braced for generous profits. gathered on ramshackle huts along the water what can happen when state corruption and illustrate the grim reality of many Nigerian greed go unchecked. Themes of avarice and The film follows the diverse cast of charac- citizens. In moments, the film crew is face- self-interest are evident throughout the film, ters Jubilee brings together: George Owusu, to-face with a group of angry, masked men reflected both in the story of oil in Nigeria as the Ghanaian entrepreneur whose efforts led with AK-47s. The effect is startling, but the well as the plot surrounding Jubilee. to its discovery; Kosmos Energy, the small, viewer soon learns that this abject poverty Dallas-based start-up that claimed Jubilee is their reality too—made all the more bitter As the film winds up, the viewer feels poised and did the drilling under the direction of as oil pipelines in their backyard pump to condemn the big-money men in suits as its President and Founder, John Musselman; billions of dollars into the pockets of crooked they chuckle about billions in “net cash” the Wall Street investors whose millions politicians and foreign investors. and make appearances in Ghana to shake

September 2014 37 Conflicts of the Future: A Snapshot REVIEWS The following figures and quotes describe the bleak scenario our world is moving toward. Yet, as the articles in this issue suggest, there are alternatives to these eventualities and ways to forge a path to peace. ILLICIT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Juxtaposed with the story of Jubilee is another account—of IT MUST ALSO INVOLVE The illegal Nigeria’s oil economy. A vivid example of crumbled state legitimacy, FIGHTING economy obeys Nigeria is consistently ranked one of the most corrupt countries TRANSNATIONAL CRIME PREVENTING no laws except the law in the world. Though their country is one of the world’s largest MUST MEAN MORE AND of the strong, the corrupt, and THAN the criminal; impunity, coercion, oil exporters, the Nigerian people are worse off since oil was CURBING THE TRAFFIC OF lawlessness, unrest and discovered over 50 years ago. REVERSING violence reign. DRUGS, WEAPONS THE CRIMINALIZATION The Destructive Impact of Illicit Trade and the Illegal Economy on Economic Growth, AND PEOPLE; OF GOVERNMENTS. Sustainable Development, and Global INSTITUTE FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, Future World of Illicit Nuclear Trade: Mitigating the Threat LINK » Security, David M. Luna. LINK »

hands with hopeful citizens. But the film has Notably and true to its name, save for two accordingly. Musselman laughs this off and COMPETITION OVER NATURAL RESOURCES a way of portraying its characters, revealing women interviewed briefly and the voice of it’s the last we hear of it. them—virtues and shortcomings—in a way Boynton throughout, the film depicts a cast that is distinctly humanizing. Boynton allows exclusively of men, raising questions of As the film winds to a close, Ghana’s future WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2050 them to speak for themselves. Before we exclusion. The viewer is left wondering why remains uncertain. Themes of divisive self- NO COUNTRY can dismiss Jim as a corporate villain, the more women aren’t part of the corporate or interest as a motivating factor are woven viewer accompanies him on a personal tour government side of the conversation— throughout the narrative and arise once more WILL BE IMMUNE % of the Musselman Ranch as he wistfully whether this was an oversight or a reflection in a closing interview with a Ghanaian oil TO THE LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF shares his dream of giving his children more of reality. Similarly, toward the end of the executive. He believes this urge is not an than he received. film are a handful of interviews with intrinsic human quality and his sentiment CLIMATE CHANGE. Ghanaian citizens sharing their sentiments suggests a trace of hope in an otherwise UN Development Programme Human Development Report, 2014 LINK » 50 His sentiments echo those of the Nigerian regarding their country’s oil dealings. seemingly grim outlook for Ghana’s Underdog who speaks of his son, both men Revealing though brief, the snapshots almost oil future. articulating a desire to create a legacy for have the effect of a post-script, raising their For minority and indigenous themselves and for their children. The viewer voices after omitting them from the main In sum, the film is dynamic and suspenseful, groups, the most progressive developments are 2014 2050 2014 2050 empathizes with Jim as he is demoted and storyline with its focus on the “big men” of compelling in its coverage. It presents the emerging in the form of new national land policies in watches his company achieve its dreams, business and government. story of big oil in Africa in a way that reflects Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan, which have the Agricultural Minerals, ores, WATER his dreams, with someone else at the helm. the nuanced nature of the subject. Its reflec- potential to create harmony and effectively manage production will need fossil fuels, and But the sting goes both ways—Jim’s resent- Perhaps the omission is representative, tion of reality is as insightful as it is trou- land conflicts. to double to meet biomass consumption NEEDS WILL ment happens just after he fires George however. While the government claims to be bling, and it is worth watching. basic human needs will triple INCREASE Owusu, the Ghanaian businessman who looking out for its people, the truth remains CHRIS CHAPMAN, HEAD OF CONFLICT PREVENTION BY 50% made Jubilee possible for Kosmos, in an to be seen. Norway is raised as an example Big Men is available on Vimeo here. AT MINORITY INTERNATIONAL RIGHTS GROUP attempt to save face during an international of a successful oil endeavor early in the film Competition for Natural Resources a Major Trigger of Conflicts in East NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL REPORT, investigation on corrupt practices. when a Norwegian representative is invited Adiel Suarez-Murias is the Editorial and Africa – New Report, MRG LINK » Resources in 2020, 2030, and 2040: Implications for the United States LINK » to speak in Ghana. His advice to the country Marketing Assistant for Building Peace. She A running theme throughout the film is the is simple: remember that Ghana’s resources is a communication specialist and devotes LACK OF STATE LEGITIMACY notion of “big men” and what it means to belong, first and foremost, to the Ghanaian her work to the study of language in conflict be “big.” During an intimate gathering in people—and tax foreign investors transformation. Most politically unstable countries the home of a Nigerian king, Boynton offers Responsive her observation that many people in Nigeria AFGHANISTAN and accountable want to become “big men.” The king swiftly institutions of responds by pointing his finger back at her, The decline of this nearby African nation is CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC governance are critical “You too want to become big,” he says. depicted as a cautionary tale for Ghana’s to overcoming the sense of “Nigerians are not an exception. Everybody budding relationship with oil—the “resource SOUTH SUDAN injustice, vulnerability and wants to become big . . . .It is an instinct in exclusion that can fuel social every human being.” curse” realized. GUINEA-BISSAU discontent.

2014 Global Peace Index, UN Development Programme Human Institute for Economics and Peace LINK » Development Report, 2014 LINK »

38 BUILDING PEACE BUILDING PEACE | September 2014 Conflicts of the Future: A Snapshot The following figures and quotes describe the bleak scenario our world is moving toward. Yet, as the articles in this issue suggest, there are alternatives to these eventualities and ways to forge a path to peace. ILLICIT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IT MUST ALSO INVOLVE The illegal FIGHTING economy obeys TRANSNATIONAL CRIME PREVENTING no laws except the law MUST MEAN MORE AND of the strong, the corrupt, and THAN the criminal; impunity, coercion, CURBING THE TRAFFIC OF lawlessness, unrest and REVERSING violence reign. DRUGS, WEAPONS THE CRIMINALIZATION The Destructive Impact of Illicit Trade and the Illegal Economy on Economic Growth, AND PEOPLE; OF GOVERNMENTS. Sustainable Development, and Global INSTITUTE FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, Future World of Illicit Nuclear Trade: Mitigating the Threat LINK » Security, David M. Luna. LINK »

COMPETITION OVER NATURAL RESOURCES NO COUNTRY WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2050 WILL BE IMMUNE % TO THE LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE. UN Development Programme Human Development Report, 2014 LINK » 50

For minority and indigenous groups, the most progressive developments are 2014 2050 2014 2050 emerging in the form of new national land policies in Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan, which have the Agricultural Minerals, ores, WATER potential to create harmony and effectively manage production will need fossil fuels, and land conflicts. to double to meet biomass consumption NEEDS WILL basic human needs will triple INCREASE CHRIS CHAPMAN, HEAD OF CONFLICT PREVENTION BY 50% AT MINORITY INTERNATIONAL RIGHTS GROUP

Competition for Natural Resources a Major Trigger of Conflicts in East NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL REPORT, Africa – New Report, MRG LINK » Resources in 2020, 2030, and 2040: Implications for the United States LINK »

LACK OF STATE LEGITIMACY Most politically unstable countries Responsive AFGHANISTAN and accountable institutions of CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC governance are critical to overcoming the sense of SOUTH SUDAN injustice, vulnerability and exclusion that can fuel social GUINEA-BISSAU discontent.

2014 Global Peace Index, UN Development Programme Human Institute for Economics and Peace LINK » Development Report, 2014 LINK »

September 2014 39 BUILDING PEACE | September 2014 Building Peace is published every six months (March and September) and, in between, dynamic new content is added to the Building Peace website. Subscribe free of cost to Building Peace and its interim web updates. Please visit www.buildingpeaceforum.com to subscribe.

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