CSS STUDY Multilateralism in Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for the OSCE Authors: Thomas Greminger, Fabian Grass, Anna Hess Sargsyan, David Lanz, Benno Zogg Editors: Simon J. A. Mason and Lisa Watanabe Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich The Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zürich is a center of competence for Swiss and international security policy. It offers security policy expertise in research, teaching and consulting. The CSS promotes understanding of security policy challenges as a contribution to a more peaceful world. Its work is independent, practice-relevant, and based on a sound academic footing. Authors: Thomas Greminger, Fabian Grass, Anna Hess Sargsyan, David Lanz, Benno Zogg Editors: Simon J. A. Mason, Lisa Watanabe Copyediting and language editing: Michael Woods Layout and graphics: Miriam Dahinden-Ganzoni © 2021 Authors and Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich Copyright front cover picture: “Three Houses and a Bridge”, Paul Klee, The Miyagi Museum of Art, Japan Available online at: www.css.ethz.ch as a pdf, for a hard copy please ask the CSS at ETH Zürich via email Acknowledgements: The editors would like express their gratitude to colleagues at the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zürich for their support, especially Andreas Wenger, Oliver Thränert, Miriam Dahinden, Benno Zogg, and Carla Güntert. Thanks also go to the contribution to this project from the Mediation Support Project, a joint initiative of CSS and swisspeace, funded by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA). Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the involved organizations. ISBN: 978-3-905696-78-3 DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000489477 Contents Contributors 4 Strengthening Cooperative Security in Difficult Times: Three Years as Secretary General of the OSCE List of Acronyms 5 (2017 – 2020) – a Critical Appraisal Thomas Greminger 22 Foreword 6 Introduction 22 The “Fit4Purpose” Reform Agenda 24 The Support of the Chairpersonships – from Austria to Part I: Introduction and the Big Picture Italy and Slovakia to Albania 42 Support to the Executive Structures: The OSCE in the Stormy Waters of the 21st Century: Field Operations, Institutions, and Introduction and Overview Parliamentary Assembly 58 Simon J. A. Mason and Lisa Watanabe 7 The Conflict Cycle and the Conflict Historical Context 7 Resolution Formats 64 Aim and Summary of Chapters 8 The New Security Risks on the Synthesis of Key Messages 10 OSCE Agenda 69 The Coronavirus: OSCE Crisis Management The Big Picture: OSCE Conflict Management and the and the Nexus between the Pandemic and Security 74 Crisis of Multilateralism Final Analysis and Conclusions 80 David Lanz 12 Introduction 12 Two Macro Trends 12 Part III: The OSCE on the Ground Three Implications for the OSCE 13 Conclusion 16 OSCE Mediation in Ukraine: Challenges and Opportunities Anna Hess Sargsyan 85 Part II: Thomas Greminger as Candidate and Inclusivity of the OSCE: Secretary General An Asset and a Liability 85 The OSCE: Hostage to Perceptions 85 How Thomas Greminger Became OSCE Secretary Ukraine Crisis: Test for the General: The Inside Story of a Campaign OSCE’s Endurance 87 Fabian Grass 17 An Uneasy Path Ahead 88 The Starting Point 17 Greminger the Candidate 18 The OSCE in Transnistria: Pragmatic Cooperation in The Campaign 18 a Protracted Conflict Strategy and Tactics 19 Benno Zogg 90 The Hearing 20 The Transnistrian Conflict 90 The Final Push 20 Conflict Resolution Efforts and the Role of the OSCE 92 Outlook and Future Role of the OSCE 95 CSS STUDY Multilateralism in Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for the OSCE Contributors Fabian Grass is a Swiss diplomat. From 2011 to 2015, he Simon J. A. Mason is Head of the Mediation Support Team was seconded to the Organization for Security and Co- at the CSS at ETH Zürich. Since 2005, he has been working operation in Europe (OSCE) Conflict Prevention Centre in the MSP and, since 2011, in the Culture and Religion in where he worked on military confidence- and security- Mediation program (CARIM), a joint program of the CSS building measures. In 2017, he supported Thomas Grem- and the Swiss FDFA. He has been involved as a trainer or inger’s candidature for Secretary General of the OSCE, facilitator in dialogue, mediation, and negotiation work- acting as campaign manager. Later, he became a diplo- shops with actors from various conflict contexts. He is Se- matic advisor to the Swiss State Secretary and Head of nior Advisor for the Master of Advanced Studies ETH Me- the Policy Planning Unit at the Federal Department of diation in Peace Processes program and a member of the Foreign Affairs (FDFA). Since 2021, he has been Deputy Mediation Roster of the UN and OSCE. Head of Mission of the Swiss Embassy in Canberra, Aus- tralia. Lisa Watanabe is Head of the Swiss and Euro-Atlantic Security Team at the CSS at ETH Zürich. She previously Thomas Greminger served as the Permanent Representa- held positions at the GCSP and York University, Toronto, tive of Switzerland to the OSCE, the UN, and the Interna- Canada. Her research focuses on challenges related to tional Organizations in Vienna from 2010 to 2015. During geopolitical shifts as well as political and socio-economic the Swiss Chairpersonship, he chaired the OSCE Perma- factors in Europe’s southern neighborhood. nent Council and played an active role in addressing the crisis in and around Ukraine. From July 2017 until July Benno Zogg is Senior Researcher in the Swiss and Euro- 2020, he served as Secretary General of the OSCE. On 1 Atlantic Security Team at the CSS at ETH Zürich. He is also May 2021, he took over as Director of the Geneva Centre a member of the Steering Committee of the OSCE Net- for Security Policy (GCSP). work of Think Tanks and Academic Institutions. His areas of research include Swiss and European security policy, Anna Hess Sargsyan is an international affairs profession- the nexus between security, development and trade poli- al with extensive experience in conflict studies and peace cy, and the international politics of Eurasia. mediation. Over the course of nine years at the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zürich, she supported a number of formal and informal peace processes, as well as developed and led educational programs in the field of peace and conflict studies. Parallel to her practical work, she has authored a number of publications. Her research focuses on the impact of geopolitical tensions on the set- tlement of protracted conflicts in the OSCE area. David Lanz is Co-Head of the Mediation Program at swis- speace, lecturer at the University of Basel, and co-manag- er of the Mediation Support Project (MSP), a joint venture between swisspeace and the CSS at ETH Zürich, support- ed by the FDFA. From 2012 to 2015, he was seconded by the Swiss Expert Pool for Civilian Peacebuilding to the OSCE Secretariat’s Conflict Prevention Centre, working to establish its Mediation Support Team. 4 CSS STUDY Multilateralism in Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for the OSCE List of Acronyms ACMF Advisory Committee on Management and LAS League of Arab States Finance MC Ministerial Council AI Artificial Intelligence MGIMO Moscow State Institute of International ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations Relations BLA Board and Lodging Allowance MoU Memorandum of Understanding BMSC Border Management Staff College MSC Munich Security Conference BRI Belt and Road Initiative MST Mediation Support Team CAO Chief Administrative Officer OAS Organization of American States CBMs confidence-building measures OCEEA OSCE Economic and Environmental CFE Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Activities Europe ODIHR Office for Democratic Institutions and CICA Conference on Interaction and Confi- Human Rights dence-Building Measures in Asia OIO Office of Internal Oversight CiO Chairperson-in-Office OMiK OSCE Mission in Kosovo CIS Commonwealth of Independent States OSCE Organization for Security and Co-opera- CMT crisis management team tion in Europe CORE at IFSH Centre for OSCE Research at the Institute OSG Office of the Secretary General for Peace Research and Security Policy at PA Parliamentary Assembly the University of Hamburg (IFSH) PBPR performance-based program reporting CPC Conflict Prevention Centre PCR polymerase chain reaction CRMS Common Regulatory Management PO Program Outline System PPE personal protective equipment CSBMs confidence- and security-building mea- PPPs public-private partnerships sures PSEA prevention of sexual exploitation and CSCE Conference on Security and Cooperation abuse in Europe RFoM Representative on Freedom of the Media CSI Cooperative Security Initiative RIAC Russian International Affairs Council CSR corporate social responsibility RMS Records Management Unit CSS Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organisation CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization SDC Swiss Agency for Development and DCFTA Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Cooperation Agreement SECI Southeast European Cooperative Initiative DFS United Nations Department of Field Support SG Secretary General EAEU Eurasian Economic Union SMM Special Monitoring Mission EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and SMR Secretariat Management Review Development SOC Security Operations Center EECP Entry and Exit Crossing Point SOPs standard operating procedures EEF Economic and Environmental Forum SPRM Strategic Planning and Resource Mobiliza- FDFA Swiss Federal Department of Foreign tion Affairs SPSU