Makropolitik I Kris

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Makropolitik I Kris Makropolitik i kris En vänskrift till anledning med Lars hans av Jonung 70-årsdag Macroeconomy policy in crisis A conference held in honor of Lars Jonung Makropolitik i kris The Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies En vänskrift till Lars Jonung med anledning av hans 70-årsdag The global fi nancial crisis that erupted in 2008 has triggered a lively debate regarding macroeconomic THE KNUT WICKSELL CENTRE FOR FINANCIAL STUDIES policies and fi nancial regulations. This volume contains 15 contributions presented at a conference on “Macroeconomic policy in crisis” held at the Department of Economics at Lund University in October 2014. KNUT WICKSELL POLICY PAPER 2016:1 Most of them deal with the challenges facing the framing of fi scal and monetary policies after the global fi nancial crisis with a focus on the Swedish record. The conference was held to honor Professor Lars Jonung on the occasion of his 70th birthday. He has been active in macroeconomic policy debate in Sweden since the 1970s. The volume ends with an account of his lessons learned from economic policy making. The contributions are in English, Norwegian and Swedish. THE KNUT WICKSELL CENTRE FOR FINANCIAL STUDIES The Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies conducts cutting-edge research in fi nancial economics and related academic disciplines. Established in 2011, the Centre is a collaboration between Lund University School of Economics and Management and the Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN) in Stockholm. The Centre supports research projects, arranges seminars, and organizes conferences. A key goal of the Policy papers Centre is to foster interaction between academics, practitioners and students to better understand current topics related to fi nancial markets. The Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies Lund University School of Economics and Management Policy paper 2016:1 LUND UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT Policy paper 2016:1 The Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies Printed by Media-Tryck, Lund, Sweden 2016 1 Makropolitik i kris En vänskrift till Lars Jonung med anledning av hans 70-årsdag Det 34:e Arne Ryde-symposiet 4-5 oktober 2014 Macroeconomic policy in crisis A conference held in honor of Lars Jonung The 34th Arne Ryde conference 4-5 October 2014 The Knut Wicksell Centre For Financial Studies School of Economics and Management Lund University June 2016 2 Lars Jonung framför Holger Crafoords Ekonomicentrum i Lund 3 List of contents 1 Social Capital and Crises with an Application to Iceland ...................................................................... 1 Thorvaldur Gylfason 2 En önskelista för det stabiliseringspolitiska regelverket ...................................................................... 17 Hans Tson Söderström 3 Ekonomisk-politiska institutioner och fördelningspolitiska konflikter ................................................... 31 Johannes Lindvall 4 Finansinspektionen - en god institution? ............................................................................................. 39 Anne-Marie Pålsson 5 Vad är fel med penningpolitiken i Sverige? ......................................................................................... 57 Bengt Assarsson och Mikael Bask 6 Penningpolitikens begränsningar ........................................................................................................ 75 Jesper Hansson 7 Monetary policy after the crisis ............................................................................................................ 89 Stefan Gerlach 8 Kompromissande ekonomer i debatt och rådgivning ........................................................................105 Clas Wihlborg 9 Measurement and Effectiveness of National Fiscal Rules and Governance in the European Union ..........................................................................................................................115 U. Michael Bergman, Michael M. Hutchison och Svend E. Hougaard Jensen 10 Carl Adolph Agardh och ekonomiska kriser ....................................................................................131 Eskil Wadensjö 11 Monetary muddles ...........................................................................................................................145 Axel Leijonhufvud 12 Crisis management and the interplay between monetary authorities in Norway over two centuries ..........................................................................................................................................157 Øyvind Eitrheim och Lars Fredrik Øksendal 13 Norges oljefond ...............................................................................................................................175 Arne Jon Isachsen 14 Har makropolitiker någon nytta av makroteori? ..............................................................................191 John Hassler 15 Mitt liv i kris. Vad har jag lärt mig om ekonomisk politik under de senaste 50 åren? ......................199 Lars Jonung 4 Tack ......................................................................................................................................................215 Lars Jonung Deltagare ..............................................................................................................................................217 Curriculum vitae ....................................................................................................................................219 Lars Jonung Skriftförteckning ....................................................................................................................................221 Lars Jonung Bilder .....................................................................................................................................................241 Från Klas Fregerts kamera 5 Abstract The global financial crisis that erupted in 2008 has triggered a lively debate regarding macroeconomic policies and financial regulations. This volume contains 15 contributions presented at a conference on ”Macroeconomic policy in crisis” held at the Department of Economics at Lund University in October 2014. Most of them deal with the challenges facing the framing of fiscal and monetary policies after the global financial crisis with a focus on the Swedish record. The conference was held to honor Professor Lars Jonung on the occasion of his 70th birthday. He has been active in macroeconomic policy debate in Sweden since the 1970s. He has served as researcher and professor at Lund University and at the Stockholm School of Economics as well as policy advisor in various capacities. He was chief economic advisor to Prime Minster Carl Bildt 1992-94, research advisor at DG ECFIN, the European Commission in Brussels 2000-10 and chairman of the Fiscal Policy Council of Sweden 2012- 13. The volume ends with an account of his lessons learned from economic policy making. The contributions are in English, Norwegian and Swedish. Key words: Crises, Sweden, Riksbank, monetary policy, fiscal policy, monetary rules, fiscal rules and financial regulation. JEL classification: E31, E5, E6, G2 and N1. 6 7 Ur inbjudan till Det 34:de Arne Ryde Symposiet: Makropolitik i kris Ekonomihögskolan i Lund, fredag-lördag 3-4 oktober 2014 Efter den globala finanskrisen har mål, medel och regelverk för makropolitiken satts under debatt. I Sverige är finanspolitikens överskottsmål ifrågasatt samtidigt som oklarheter uppstått kring riksdagens finanspolitiska beslutsregler. Tvivel om Riksbankens förmåga och mandat att samtidigt uppnå låg inflation och finansiell stabilitet är omfattande. Regelverket kring ansvaret för den finansiella stabiliteten är i stöpsleven. Krisen har satt hela europrojektet i gungning. ECB har fått en roll som köpare av statsobligationer och som övervakare av bankväsendet. Ett nytt regelverk för finansiell stabilitet och övervakning av finanspolitiken inom EU är under uppbyggnad. Oberoende finanspolitiska råd håller på att etableras inom euroområdet. Vi bjuder in till ett symposium i Lund för att ge en allsidig belysning av omprövningen av makropolitiken. Syftet med symposiet är att söka svar på frågor som aktualiserats av den globala finanskrisen. Vilka är de nya lärdomarna rörande målen, medlen och regelverken för makropolitiken? Hur bör makropolitikens olika områden samordnas? Vem bör bära ansvaret för finansiell stabilitet? Vad kan vi lära oss från tidigare krisepisoder? Hur bör framtida kriser motverkas? Ett mer personligt motiv till konferensen är att vi vill passa på att uppmärksamma professor Lars Jonung som fyller 70 år i september 2014. Lars har deltagit i debatten och forskningen kring stabiliseringspolitiken sedan 1970-talet. Han medverkade i SNS-gruppen som i mitten på 1980-talet lanserade normpolitiken. Som rådgivare till dåvarande statsminister Carl Bildt kunde han i början på 1990-talet studera makropolitiken från insidan. Detta resulterade bl a i skriften Med backspegeln som kompass. Under eurons första tio år var han på plats i EU-kommissionen och såg eurokrisen växa fram. Under åren 2012-2013 var han ordförande i Finanspolitiska Rådet. Ett centralt tema i hans arbeten är hur kriser har påverkat det ekonomisk-politiska tänkandet. Vi skulle uppskatta om Du kunde delta i vårt symposium i början av oktober i Lund och medverka till att sprida ljus över den period vi lever i när makropolitiken än en gång står under debatt. Symposiespråket är svenska. Vi hoppas Du har möjlighet att presentera ett bidrag på svenska med koppling till
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