Weekly Market Report
Issue: ee 20 | uesday 17 th May 2016
Market insight Chartering (Wet: Stable + / Dry: So - ) he Dry Bul mar et ept mo ing south last wee , while the perfor By Panos Makrinos mance of anamax rates pro ided a much needed sen ment boost. he SnP Broker BDI closed today (17/05/2016) at 643 points, up by 30 points compared to Monday’s le els (16/05/2016) and an increase of 49 points when compared to pre ious uesday’s closing (10/05/2016). he crude carri As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number ers mar et mo ed sideways last wee , with rates for Sue maxes in the of mar et par cipants o er at the dry bul sector that ha e started wonder MED region and for VLs going east o erperforming the mar et. he ing whether they ha e missed out on the bo oming secondhand prices that BD I Monday (16/05/2016) was at 734 points, an increase of 19 points the mar et witnessed during the end of last year and throughout the beg and the BC I at 475, a decrease of 33 points compared to last Monday’s ging of this one, when the BDI touched its lowest le el e er, at 290 points. (09/05/2016) le els. Following this rather extended period of low rates, as the spring season Sale & Purchase (Wet: So - / Dry: Firm + ) ic ed o , the steadier demand for dry bul commodi es together with the impro ement in owner’s psychology helped the index mo e abo e 600 Modern dry bul tonnage almost monopoli ed Sn ac ity last wee , points in April, a er more than fi e months. he impro ed mar et sen ment with Buyers displaying equal interest to all si es while snubbing es has consequently helped second hand prices firm a bit during the past sels built prior to 2000. On the tan er side, we had the sale of the wee s. he posi e momentum the mar et achie ed was also helped by a S AVANGER EAGLE (45,898dwt blt 04, Japan) which was sold to Chi few de elopments that started drawing a healthier picture of the fundamen nese owner, Shenlong Mari me, for a price in the region of 16.0m. On tals ahead as a number of owners too steps that will more e ec ely tac le the dry bul er side, we had the sale of the KLARA SELMER the tonnage o ersupply issue. (176,000dwt blt 12, China) which was sold to Gree owner, Marmaras, for a price in the region of 20.0m. From one hand, the intense scrapping that has ta en place during this year is certainly pushing things towards the right direc on. e ha e seen es Newbuilding (Wet: So - / Dry: So - ) sels younger than what is considered the typical scrapping age being sold for Ac ity, prices and sen ment, are all s ll u erly depressed in the new demoli on. As expected, it was the bigger si es that experienced the most building mar et that remains wee o er wee in desperate search of impressi e increase in demoli on olumes. meaningful business olumes, while as industry fundamentals con nue More than 230 bul ers ha e been sold for scrap this year and while in terms to worsen, price details surrounding the few reported deals become less of olumes we are around the same le els when compared to the same and less a ailable to the public. Dry orders remain scarce, as both bul period last year, when you loo at these olumes in terms of dwt, there is a ers and containerships ha e yet to sha e o the respec e historical 2% increase. his means that bigger essels are being sold for scrap, while in lows that ha e sha ered sen ment in both sectors. At the same me, terms of age, the a erage scrapping age for bul ers has mo ed from 30 tan er ordering ac ity remains compara ely be er but the ma ority years a couple of years ago to 24 years in 2016 so far. of the few orders that pop up here and there s ll concern essels of smaller dwt. As far as other less con en onal sectors are concerned At the same me, newbuilding ac ity or the lac thereof has been dra things are no be er either. Any newbuilding ac ity in these sectors ma c. Despite the fact that newbuilding prices are at excep onally low le goes hand in hand with specific pro ects li e for example the o shore els, re ec ng both the dire straits the industry has found itself in together of trio reported ordered by opa Energy, while what all of the abo e course with the almost non existent appe te for dry bul ordering, there clearly signals is more consolida on for the industry ahead. In terms of seems to be no hope for a spar in ordering for dry tonnage. On top of that, recently reported deals, Super Eco an ers placed an order for two firm the few orders that are being reported are ght to specific pro ects. MRs (40,000dwt) at Hyundai Mipo, in S. Korea with deli ery set in 2017 So despite the historically low rates, long term fundamentals are slowly 2018. impro ing for the dry bul mar et. If high demoli on ac ity con nues throughout the second half of the year and slippage this year remains high, Demoli on (Wet: Stable - / Dry: Stable -) we could well see minimum dry bul eet growth in 2016 and e en nega e Buyers in the Indian subcon nent are slowly mo ing towards the side eet growth within specific segments li e Capes. If this is combined with lines as budget announcement are approaching, prices are stalling and healthy demand for dry bul commodi es from countries li e India and a fears that the recent firming of the mar et can’t be sustained for much gradual strengthening of Chinese momentum that seems to ha e been lost longer are increasing o er at the demoli on front. he one thing that during the past year, things should further impro e by next year. seems una ected by all this is the supply of demo candidates that ap he million dollar ques on though is by how much ill demand le els be pears to ha e totally ignored recent mar et de elopments and re finally adequate to o ercome the o ercapacity issue that is finally being mains as robust as e er. he firm number of container essels that has tac led by intense scrapping and absent ordering, or will demand be ust been heading for scrap recently has also come to add to the once more enough to eep pro iding lifelines periodically to a mar et that won’t be increasing supply of bul ers. ith dry bul sector related scrapping able to brea abo e 1,000 points for much longer stealing the spotlight this year, the remar able increase in the number of demoli on sales of containerships so far in 2016 compared to the same period last year has been somewhat o ershadowed. he la er is calculated at 48% in terms of essels and a aw dropping 122% in terms of dwt, while this trend is expected to last at least un l the end of the tradi onally wea er for containers third quarter. rices this wee for wet tonnage were at around 190 305 /ldt and dry units recei ed about 170 295 /ldt.
Tanker Market
Spot Rates Indicative Period Charters Week 20 Week 19 2015 2014 $/day 12 mos 'BRI ANIS' 2002 304,700 dwt Vessel Routes WS WS $/day $/day±% $/day $/day 42,000/day Litasco points points 265k MEG-JAPAN 70 60,806 65 54,751 11.1% 65,906 30,469 24 mos 'RS ARA' 2016 158,000 dwt 280k MEG-USG 37.5 25,134 37.5 25,381 1.0% 49,575 17,173 28,500/day Vitol 260k WAF-USG 67.5 54,330 67.5 55,650 2.4% 76,251 40,541
130k MED-MED 85 35,297 77.5 32,128 9.9% 50,337 30,950 D3 D6 D9 DIRTY - WS RATES 130k WAF-USAC 67.5 22,998 70 24,014 4.2% 40,490 24,835 520 470
Suezmax 130k BSEA-MED 86 36,951 77.5 33,177 11.4% 50,337 30,950 420 370 80k MEG-EAST 92.5 17,357 95 22,201 21.8% 34,131 19,956 320 80k MED-MED 110 29,709 110 29,943 0.8% 37,127 28,344 270 220
80k UKC-UKC 102.5 18,079 100 16,351 10.6% 39,338 33,573 Spoints 170 120 70k CARIBS-USG 95 15,848 107.5 21,830 27.4% 36,519 25,747 70 75k MEG-JAPAN 80 15,991 80 15,916 0.5% 30,482 16,797 20 55k MEG-JAPAN 103 15,036 100 14,446 4.1% 24,854 14,461
Clean37K UKC-USAC 116 10,110 VLCC 120 11,833 14.6% 19,973 10,689 30K MED-MED 122.5 7,305 140 10,622 31.2% 24,473 18,707 55K UKC-USG 110 17,489 92.5 13,644 28.2% 27,228 23,723 C1 C2 C5 C6 CLEAN - WS RATES 55K MED-USG 105 15,258 90 12,615 21.0% 26,083 21,089 270 Dirty Aframax 240 50k CARIBS-USAC 120 17,627 112.5 16,333 7.9% 27,146 25,521 210 180 TC Rates 150 S points S 120 $/day Week 20 Week 19 ±% Diff 2015 2014 90 300k 1yr TC 40,000 40,000 0.0% 0 46,135 28,346 60 VLCC 300k 3yr TC 37,000 37,000 0.0% 0 42,075 30,383 150k 1yr TC 29,000 29,000 0.0% 0 35,250 22,942 Suezmax 150k 3yr TC 27,000 27,000 0.0% 0 33,219 24,613 110k 1yr TC 25,000 25,000 0.0% 0 26,808 17,769 Indicative Market Values ($ Million) - Tankers Aframax 110k 3yr TC 22,500 22,500 0.0% 0 24,729 19,229 May-16 Apr-16 Vessel 5yrs old ±% 2015 2014 2013 75k 1yr TC 20,500 20,500 0.0% 0 23,596 16,135 avg avg Panamax 75k 3yr TC 19,500 19,500 0.0% 0 20,580 16,666 VLCC 300KT DH 74.5 75.5 1.3% 80.9 73.8 56.2 52k 1yr TC 16,500 16,500 0.0% 0 17,865 14,889 Suezmax 150KT DH 52.5 53.4 1.7% 59.5 50.4 40.1 MR 52k 3yr TC 16,000 16,000 0.0% 0 16,638 15,604 Aframax 110KT DH 39.5 40.0 1.3% 45.3 38.9 29.2 36k 1yr TC 15,000 15,500 3.2% 500 16,101 14,024 LR1 75KT DH 35.5 36.0 1.4% 35.8 33.0 28.0 Handy 36k 3yr TC 15,000 15,000 0.0% 0 15,450 14,878 MR 52KT DH 27.3 27.5 0.9% 27.3 27.5 24.7
Chartering Sale & Purchase he crude carriers mar et ept displaying a mixed picture last wee , with the posi e e ects of an o erall healthy Middle East on CE being partly In the MR sector, we had the sale of the S AVANGER EAGLE (45,898dwt o set by increasing oil prices and e ec ely more expensi e bun ers. he blt 04, Japan) which was sold to Chinese owner, Shenlong Mari me, for a worldwide supply disrup ons that ha e ta en place o er the past few price in the region of 16.0m. months and ha e been further magnified by the recent wildfires in Canada, ha e built up expecta ons in regards to oil prices ad ancing further, while the shi in sen ment has also been aided by Goldman Sachs changing its stance and upgrading its forecast for oil prices, e ec ely ending one of the most bearish rhetoric o er the past couple of years. Nothing is of course set in stone. Let’s not forget that an increase in prices is bound to bring bac on line a substan al part of the S produc on that had been ousted by the uneconomical 12 year lows oil had touched, fact that will surely o set to a big part the supply worries currently suppor ng prices. Despite the fact that VL ac ity in Middle East allowed for o erall good numbers out of the region, there was a sense towards the end of the wee that owners couldn't push for more, while we expect an o erall steady mar et in the following days as charterers mo e to end of May dates. he est Africa Sue max con nued to lose ground last wee , while Blac Sea/Med rates strengthened, capitali ing on delays out of rieste. Afra ton nage en oyed an o erall steady mar et in both the Med and North Sea re gions, while the Caribs Afra lost further ground last wee as the number of ballasters in the region was s ll outpacing a ailable business.
© Intermodal Research 17/05/2016 2 Dry Bulk Market
Baltic Indices Indicative Period Charters Week 20 Week 19 2015 2014 3 to 5 mos 'IM ERIAL' 2007 75,527 dwt 13/05/2016 06/05/2016 Point $/day Diff ±% Flushing 15/17 May 6,000/day GSC Index $/day Index $/day Index Index BDI 600 631 31 713 1,097 4 to 7 mos 'GLEAMS AR' 2011 75,491 dwt BCI 798 6,286 892 7,024 94 10.5% 1,009 1,943 Jiangyin 18/20 May 5,250/day Beibu Gulf BPI 597 4,768 591 4,723 6 1.0% 692 960 Baltic Indices BSI 553 5,780 578 6,044 25 4.4% 663 937 3,000 BCI B I BSI BHSI BDI BHSI 347 4,932 359 5,088 12 3.1% 365 522 2,500 2,000 1,500 Index 1,000 500 Period 0 Week Week $/day ±% Diff 2015 2014 20 19 180K 6mnt TC 7,500 7,750 3.2% 250 9,969 22,020 180K 1yr TC 7,000 7,250 3.4% 250 10,263 21,921
Capesize 180K 3yr TC 8,500 8,500 0.0% 0 11,243 21,097 Average T/C Rates 25,000 AVR 4 C BCI AVR 4 C B I AVR 5 C BSI AVR 6 C BHSI 76K 6mnt TC 5,750 5,750 0.0% 0 7,921 12,300 76K 1yr TC 5,750 5,750 0.0% 0 7,705 12,259 20,000
Panamax 76K 3yr TC 6,500 6,500 0.0% 0 8,724 13,244 15,000 55K 6mnt TC 6,250 6,250 0.0% 0 8,162 12,008