Bringing War Back In: Victory and State Formation in Latin America Luis L. Schenoni Ph.D. Candidate, University of Notre Dame
[email protected] Abstract Scholars have often dismissed the effect of war on state formation in regions like Latin America where mobilization for war is deemed insufficiently intense and international conflict fails to out-select weaker states. Against this conventional wisdom I contend wars can affect state building trajectories in a post-war period through the different state institutions that result from victory and defeat. After reconsidering the role of war outcomes in classical bellicist theory I use difference- in-differences analysis to identify the effect of losing vis-`a-vis winning a war on levels of state capacity in a panel of Latin America (1860-1913). I then illustrate my causal mechanisms in case studies of the Paraguayan War (1864-1870) and the War of the Pacific (1879-1883) and apply the synthetic control method to these cases. While out-selection of losers obscures the effect of war outcomes in European history, Latin America illuminates their long-term consequences. Presented at the XXXVII Conference of the Latin American Studies Association Boston { May 23{27, 2019 Building on a long intellectual tradition, the premise that \war made the state" (Tilly, 1975, 42) has been largely validated by contemporary research ranging from anthropol- ogy to economic theory, explaining the formation of states from prehistory to modern Europe. In regions where inter-state war was less severe the expectations of the belli- cist approach are generally met as well (Migdal, 1988, 273), explaining their relatively weaker states.