Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 July 2020 Indonesia Property Looking beyond COVID-19; PWON is our top pick We assume coverage of the sector with an optimistic view, as we look beyond Indonesia COVID-19: (1) We believe the current 60% sector discount to NAV and 0.7x Property 2021E PBV price in most of the pandemic-related impact (presales delay, deferral Henry Wibowo AC of rental income), especially as the economy gradually reopens. (2) The sector (622-1) 5291 8526 would benefit from potentially higher FDI inflow due to policy reforms during
[email protected] President Jokowi’s second term and relocation of the capital. (3) Benefits from a Bloomberg JPMA HWIBOWO <GO> declining interest rate and stabilizing rupiah. PWON is our top pick, given its PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia 50% recurring income contribution and strong balance sheet. We also like CTRA Vida M Cornelius for its pan-Indonesia presence and increasing mass-market segment contribution, (62-21) 5291-8505 and SMRA for its prominent presence in fast-growing Bekasi (an industrial city)
[email protected] and potential unlocking of value from malls. We rate BSDE as Neutral on the risk PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia of higher concentration in Serpong (where the ASP is starting to stagnate). Cusson Leung, CFA (852) 2800-8526 COVID-19-related bad news largely priced-in, time to look beyond. We
[email protected] expect 2020 presales to decline up to 25% YoY due to COVID-19, which has J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited led to postponement of project launches and construction, and also weaker Ajay Mirchandani demand sentiment.