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Pakuwon Jati(PWON IJ) Maintain the Good Performance Continues

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Pakuwon Jati(PWON IJ) Maintain the Good Performance Continues Equity Research Company Update Friday,10 November 2017 BUY Pakuwon Jati(PWON IJ) Maintain The good performance continues Last price (IDR) 625 We reiterate our BUY call on PWON with a higher target price of IDR720 as Target Price (IDR) 720 we: (i) roll over our valuation to 2018, and (ii) lower our risk-free rate assumption from 7.3% to 7.0% to take into account the recent decline in Upside/Downside +15.2% government bond yields. With solid marketing sales in 10M17 which will be Previous Target Price (IDR) 700 supported by the La Vis launching, we believe PWON will achieve marketing sales of IDR2.4tn this year (+4.2%yoy). Going into 2018, we expect PWON to Stock Statistics record higher marketing sales growth supported by new project launches. Sector Property Bloomberg Ticker PWON IJ Solid marketing sales in October 2017. PWON recorded marketing sales of No of Shrs (mn) 48,160 IDR200bn in October 2017, still supported by sales from its existing projects. As such, on a cumulative basis, PWON recorded marketing sales of IDR2.0tn, or Mkt. Cap (IDR bn/USDmn) 30,822/2,281 reaching 85.1% of our full year marketing sales target of IDR2.4tn and 77.7% of Avg. daily T/O (IDR bn/USDmn) 21.0/1.6 the management’s target of IDR2.6-2.7tn. With the solid marketing sales in 10M17 and condominium launch in Pakuwon Mall Surabaya in November 2017 Major shareholders (La Vis was launched with prices starting from IDR2bn/unit or IDR30mn/sqm), Pakuwon Arthaniaga 56.1% we believe that PWON will achieve our marketing sales target. Alexander Tedja 0.0% Estimated free float (%) 43.9 Strong retail portfolio with nothing to be worried about. Despite the recent trend of department and fashion store closures (Debenhams, Lotus, GAP), we EPS Consensus(IDR) remain optimistic on PWON’s retail portfolio. We believe that most retail 2017F 2018F 2019F closures reflect limited visitor traffic, whereas PWON’s mall portfolio traffic remains stable at 10,000-14,000 cars/day (depending on the mall: Gandaria Danareksa 39.7 49.3 53.7 City’s average traffic is 10,000cars/day, with 13,000cars /day for Pakuwon Consensus 40.5 46.0 50.6 Mall). With a lot of traffic, PWON enjoys a stable occupancy rate and the Danareksa/Cons (2.0) 7.1 6.0 bargaining power to increase its rental area by 6%pa. PWON relative to JCI Index We reiterate our BUY call with a higher target price. We reiterate our BUY call on PWON with a higher target price of IDR720 as we: ((i) roll over our valuation to 2018, (ii) lower our risk-free rate assumption from 7.3% to 7.0% to take into account the recent declines in government bond yields. We use SOTP based valuation, a WACC of 12.6%, Terminal Growth of 4.0%, and target discount to NAV of 40% to arrive at our target price. Although we remain cautious on the outlook for property demand next year, we believe PWON with its strong recurring income will be more resilient. PWON currently trades at a 48.0% discount to NAV, near to its historical +1SD of 49.4%. Source : Bloomberg Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Revenue, (IDRbn) 4,625 4,841 5,726 6,609 6,790 Antonia Febe Hartono, CFA EBITDA, (IDRbn) 2,558 2,593 2,984 3,337 3,422 (62-21) 29 555 888 ext.3504 EBITDA Growth, (%) 3.5 1.4 15.1 11.8 2.5 [email protected] Net profit (IDRbn) 1,262 1,671 1,913 2,373 2,585 EPS (IDR) 26.2 34.7 39.7 49.3 53.7 Natalia Sutanto EPS growth (%) (49.8) 32.4 14.5 24.0 9.0 (62-21) 29 555 888 ext.3508 BVPS, (IDR) 149.9 180.3 214.1 256.5 301.8 DPS, (IDR) 4.5 4.5 5.9 6.8 8.4 [email protected] PER (x) 23.9 18.0 15.7 12.7 11.6 PBV (x) 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.4 2.1 Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 12.7 10.9 9.4 8.9 Source : PWON, Danareksa Estimates www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1 Exhibit 1. REVENUE AND GROWTH Exhibit 2. NET PROFIT AND GROWTH Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Exhibit 3. MARGINS Exhibit 4. GEARING LEVEL Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Exhibit 5. PWON’s historical discount to NAV Exhibit 6. Property sector’s historical discount to NAV 35.0% 45.0% -2SD -2SD 50.0% 40.0% -1SD -1SD 55.0% 45.0% Mean Mean 60.0% +1SD 50.0% +1SD 65.0% +2SD +2SD 55.0% 70.0% Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Jun 2017 Sep 2017 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Jun 2017 Sep 2017 Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Further improvements in the occupancy rate in Pakuwon Mall and Tunjungan Plaza. Since its commercial commencement in February 2017, the occupancy rate of Pakuwon Mall Extension has soared from 60% to 82%. With the recent opening of Uniqlo, as well as the expected opening of LC Waikiki and Tokyo Street in December 2017, the company expects to further increase its occupancy rate for Pakuwon Mall Extension to 90% by the end of the year. We believe this will raise further the blended average occupancy rate of Pakuwon Mall that currently stands at 94% to 96-97%. Meanwhile, for Tunjungan Plaza 6, which recently opened in September 2017, the company also claimed that the occupancy rate would increase from 65% currently to 80% by the end of the year, supported by two major tenants: H&M www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 2 and English First. We also expect the blended average occupancy rate for Tunjungan Plaza to be boosted from its current level of 96% to 97%. Strong development revenues recognition likely to continue in 4Q17. In 9M17, PWON recorded 53.7%yoy higher apartment and office revenues. This stellar performance was supported by revenues recognition from 2 tower apartments in the Kota Kasablanka project (Angelo and Bella). Going into 4Q17, the company expects the massive recognition from the apartment project to continue, particularly supported by Chianti tower in Kota Kasablanka. With the expectation of encouraging 4Q17 results, we revise up our revenues target by 10.1% to IDR5.7tn. Exhibit 7. Forecast changes Previous New Changes in IDR bn 2016 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F Marketing sales 2,277 2,342 2,557 2,374 2,637 1.3% 3.1% Revenue 4,856 5,200 6,137 5,726 6,609 10.1% 7.7% Gross profit 2,724 2,927 3,326 3,186 3,565 8.9% 7.2% Operating profit 2,296 2,410 2,771 2,676 3,027 11.1% 9.2% Net profit 1,757 1,714 2,133 1,913 2,373 11.6% 11.2% Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 3 Exhibit 8. NAV calculation Land bank Price per Area RNAV Location Stakes Plot ratio sqm Method (ha) (Rp bn) (Rp mn/sqm) Kota Kasablanka South Jakarta 100.0% 3.4 75% 32.7 NAV 835 Gandaria City South Jakarta 83.3% 1.9 75% 13.1 NAV 155 TB Simatupang South Jakarta 70.0% 4.5 75% 27.1 NAV 641 Pakuwon City East Surabaya, East Java 100.0% 233.4 65% 15.9 NAV 24,079 Outside Pakuwon City East Surabaya, East Java 100.0% 21.5 65% 14.2 NAV 1,982 Tunjungan City Central Surabaya, East Java 100.0% 2.1 75% 32.7 NAV 516 Supermall Pakuwon Indah West Surabaya, East Java 67.1% 0.6 65% 14.0 NAV 37 Grand Pakuwon Township West Surabaya, East Java 100.0% 151.5 65% 9.3 NAV 9,169 Outside Grand Pakuwon West Surabaya, East Java 100.0% 6.9 65% 7.2 NAV 325 Royal Plaza South Surabaya, East Java 75.0% 1.8 75% 22.4 NAV 227 Bekasi West Java 83.9% 3.2 0.6 Cost 15 Daan Mogot West Jakarta 100.0% 11.0 9.0 Cost 990 Total land bank 441.8 Investment Property Kota Kasablanka South Jakarta 100% DCF 4,134.7 Gandaria City South Jakarta 83% DCF 3,778.4 Tunjungan City Central Surabaya, East Java 100% DCF 5,982.7 Supermall Pakuwon Indah West Surabaya, East Java 67% DCF 3,517.7 Royal Plaza South Surabaya, East Java 75% DCF 505.8 Pakuwon Town Square East Surabaya, East Java 100% DCF 104.1 Blok M Plaza South Jakarta 100% DCF 489.0 Hotels DCF 1,419.0 Future - mixed used development Kota Kasablanka South Jakarta 100% DCF 1,813.1 Tunjungan Plaza Central Surabaya, East Java 100% DCF 355.7 Pakuwon City East Surabaya, East Java 100% DCF 397.0 Supermall Pakuwon Indah West Surabaya, East Java 67% DCF 585.0 Total asset (Rp bn) 62,052 Net debts (Rp bn) 1,231 Advance from customer (Rp bn) 2,974 Net asset value (Rp bn) 57,848 Discount to NAV (%) 40% Number of shares outstanding (bn shares) 48.2 Target price (Rp/share) 720 Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 4 Exhibit 9.
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