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ICICI LOMBARD Lemonade from Lemons

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ICICI LOMBARD Lemonade from Lemons RESULT UPDATE ICICI LOMBARD Lemonade from lemons India Equity Research| Banking and Financial Services ICICI Lombard’s Q1FY21 PAT jumped 28.5% YoY to INR3.98bn. However, EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS gross direct premium income (GDPI) fell 5.3% YoY, marginally Absolute Rating BUY underperforming the industry (-4.2% YoY). Net earned premium (NEP) Rating Relative to Sector Outperformer grew 3.5% YoY. Investment leverage remained unchanged at 4.2x net Risk Rating Relative to Sector Low worth. The company continues to grow in the preferred areas of SME fire Sector Relative to Market Overweight and agency-driven health indemnity, accompanying added momentum in commercial lines. We estimate NEP would increase by only 3% in FY21 as 15% shrinkage in motor OD business is offset by growth in retail health MARKET DATA (R:ICIL.BO, B:ICICIGI IN) CMP : INR 1,289 and fire. Underwriting performance should improve greatly as more Target Price : INR 1,600 profitable areas of fire and health account for a higher share in business mix along with better economics in motor OD. These drive upward 52-week range (INR) : 1,440 / 806 revisions of 16% in FY21E and 8% in FY22E earnings. We maintain ‘BUY’ Share in issue (mn) : 454.5 with a revised TP of INR1,600 (INR1,490 earlier, multiple unchanged). We M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 586/ 7,817 single out ICICI Lombard as a long-term beneficiary of the current Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 656.0 disruption with higher pricing freedom accompanying market share gain. Key risks remain growth/scale-agnostic focus on earning too high an RoE SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) and under-investment in distribution and technology. Current Q4FY20 Q3FY20 Promoters * 51.9 55.9 55.9 Strategic choices impact mix and economics MF's, FI's & BK’s 10.5 10.6 10.2 FII's 26.6 23.4 24.0 The combined ratio improved by 280bps QoQ to 98.4% led by both the loss and Others 11.0 10.1 9.9 expense ratios. This led to a healthy RoE of 25.1% for Q1FY21 (23% for Q1FY20). The * Promoters pledged shares : NIL company continues to grow its health indemnity business (agent driven) aggressively, (% of share in issue) whereas the health benefit business suffers from the ongoing NBFC slowdown. While PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) the indemnity piece (~20% of health now) shot up 26% YoY in Q1FY21, the June exit Nifty Fin. run-rate was 77%. Stock Nifty Service Outlook and valuation: Reiterate thesis; maintain ‘BUY’ 1 month 1.0 8.03 5.2 3 months 8.2 17.7 9.9 We believe ICICI Lombard can grow at 20% for the next 20 years while maintaining a 12 months 22.5 (6.7) (19.0) 20% RoE. Under-penetration should keep its high-growth phase extended while an altered sector landscape and improved economics catalyse acceleration. High float levels, scale-led cost/pricing edge, distribution investment, and technology leadership are the key moats to sustaining a 20% RoE. High granularity of risk exposure and diversification benefits of a nation-wide scale lend comfort. Maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with a revised 12-month TP of INR1,600 (40x FY22E PE). The stock is trading at 7.9x FY21E P/BVPS and 41.3x FY21E PE. Financials (INR mn) Santanu Chakrabarti Year to March Q1FY21 Q1FY20 Growth (%) Q4FY20 Growth (%) FY20 FY21E FY22E +91 22 4342 8680 Net earned prem. 23,238 22,449 3.5 23,455 (0.9) 94,035 97,111 1,28,795 [email protected] Net profit 3,981 3,098 28.5 2,819 41.2 11,938 14,196 18,182 Combined ratio 98.4 102.0 (3.6) 101.3 (2.9) 101.1 100.4 100.7 Vinayak Agarwal RoAE (%) 25.1 23.0 9.2 18.8 33.6 20.8 20.9 22.2 +91 22 6620 3020 [email protected] Diluted EPS (INR) 8.8 6.8 28.5 6.2 41.2 26.3 31.2 40.0 BV per share (INR) 135.0 163.8 196.0 Diluted P/E (x) 49.1 41.3 32.2 Price to Book (x) 9.5 7.9 6.6 July 18, 2020 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services Table 1: Q1FY21 result review – Income statement (INR mn) Q1FY21 Q1FY20 Growth (%) Q4FY20 Growth (%) Gross Direct Premium Income (GDPI) 33,020 34,870 (5.3) 31,806 3.8 Add: Reinsurance Accepted 922 737 25.2 510 80.7 Gross Written Premium (GWP) 33,942 35,607 (4.7) 32,316 5.0 Less: Reinsurance ceded 11,751 11,756 (0.0) 8,000 46.9 Net Written Premium (NWP) 22,191 23,850 (7.0) 24,315 (8.7) Less: Adjustment for unexpired risk reserve 1,047 -1,401 (174.7) -860 (221.8) Net Earned Premium (NEP) 23,238 22,449 3.5 23,455 (0.9) Incurred Claims (Net) 16,217 16,941 (4.3) 16,399 (1.1) Commission expense 1,016 547 85.7 1,704 (40.4) Operating expenses related to Insurance 5,624 5,410 4.0 5,647 (0.4) Underwriting profit/losses 382 -449 (184.9) -294 - Total Investment Income (Policyholder) 4,058 4,193 (3.2) 5,052 (19.7) Operating Profit/Loss 4,440 3,743 18.6 4,758 (6.7) Total Investment Income (Shareholder) 1,145 1,269 (9.8) 1,178 (2.8) Other expenses (including provisions) 275 260 5.6 2,229 (87.7) PBT 5,310 4,753 11.7 3,706 43.3 Tax 1,329 1,655 (19.7) 887 49.9 PAT 3,981 3,098 28.5 2,819 41.2 EPS (Rs) 8.8 6.8 28.5 6.2 41.2 Source: Company Table 2: Q1FY21 result review – Balance sheet (INR mn) Q1FY21 Q1FY20 Growth (%) Q4FY20 Growth (%) Share Capital 4,545 4,544 0.0 4,545 0.0 Reserves & Surplus 60,780 49,852 21.9 56,796 7.0 Shareholders Funds 65,325 54,396 20.1 61,340 6.5 Share Application Money 0 0 NM 2 - Fair Value Change Account -364 2,303 (115.8) -4,286 (91.5) Borrowings 4,850 4,850 0.0 4,850 0.0 Total Sources of Funds 69,811 61,550 13.4 61,906 12.8 Investments 2,81,180 2,37,107 18.6 2,63,267 6.8 Fixed Assets 6,595 4,650 41.8 6,766 (2.5) Deferred tax Assets 3,643 3,772 (3.4) 3,063 18.9 Current Assets (Incl Cash) 77,903 1,02,615 (24.1) 97,325 (20.0) Claims Outstanding including IBNR & IBNER 1,80,665 1,69,896 6.3 1,80,074 0.3 Provision for unexpired risk reserve 57,335 57,411 (0.1) 58,382 (1.8) Other Liabilities 61,510 59,287 3.8 70,059 (12.2) Net Current Assets -2,21,607 -1,83,979 20.5 -2,11,190 4.9 Total Application of Funds 69,811 61,550 13.4 61,906 12.8 Source: Company 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited ICICI Lombard General Insurance Table 3: Q1FY21 result review – Key ratios (INR mn) Q1FY21 Q1FY20 Growth (%) Q4FY20 Growth (%) Loss ratio (%) 69.8 75.5 -568 bps 69.9 -13 bps Expense Ratio (%) 28.6 26.5 204 bps 31.3 -276 bps Combined Ratio (%) 98.4 102.0 -364 bps 101.3 -290 bps BVPS 143.7 119.7 20.1 135.0 6.5 RoE (%) 25.1 23.0 211 bps 18.8 633 bps Investment Leverage (net of borrowings) 4.2 4.3 -4 bps 4.2 2 bps Total Investment Return - annualised (%) 7.6 9.5 -187 bps 9.7 -209 bps ROI - policyholder - annualised (%) 7.7 9.5 -186 bps 10.2 -252 bps ROI - shareholder - annualised (%) 7.5 9.4 -191 bps 8.1 -65 bps Solvency ratio (%) 250.0 220.0 3000 pps 217.0 3300 pps Source: Company Chart 1: Improved growth momentum QoQ mainly due to ramp-up in fire/property segment led by market share gain 40.0 40.0 30.0 40.0 32.0 28.0 24.0 30.0 24.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 (%) (%) (INR bn) (INR 12.0 10.0 (INR bn) (INR 16.0 4.0 8.0 (8.0) 6.0 0.0 0.0 (20.0) 0.0 (10.0) Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Gross Direct Premium Income (GDPI) QoQ growth Net Earned Premiums (NEP) QoQ growth Source: Company Chart 2: NEP growth (YoY) by product; strong show by fire/property 115.0 92.0 69.0 (%) 46.0 23.0 0.0 Fire Marine Motor Health & Crop Others Total PA Net earned premium (YoY growth) Source: Company 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services Chart 3: Loss ratios improved by 570bps (YoY) led by motor OD and TP 150.0 120.0 90.0 (%) 60.0 30.0 0.0 Fire Crop Total Other Marine Motor TP Motor Motor OD Motor Health & PA & Health Engineering Q1'20 Q1'21 Chart 4: Loss ratio improves marginally QoQ while improvement is sharper in expense ratio… 100.0 35.0 90.0 32.0 80.0 29.0 (%) (%) 70.0 26.0 60.0 23.0 50.0 20.0 Q2'19 Q1'21 Q1'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q3'19 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Loss ratio Expense ratio (as a % of NEP) Chart 5: …reducing combined ratio by 290bps 110.0 100.0 90.0 (%) 80.0 70.0 60.0 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Combined ratio Source: Company 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited ICICI Lombard General Insurance Chart 6: Investment leverage stable at 4.2x net worth with a drop in investment return (unrealised gains of INR11bn) 4.5 12.0 4.2 10.8 3.9 9.6 (X) (%) 3.6 8.4 3.3 7.2 3.0 6.0 Q1'20 Q4'20 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q1'21 Q1'19 Q3'20 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Investment Leverage (net of borrowings) Total Investment Return - annualised (%) Source: Company Chart 7: RoE improves to 25% for Q1FY21 Chart 8: Solvency ratio at 250% due to lower MTM loss 27.5 255.0 25.0 240.0 22.5 225.0 (%) (%) 20.0 210.0 17.5 195.0 15.0 180.0 Q3'19 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 RoAE (%) Solvency ratio Source: Company 5 Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services Q1FY21 conference call takeaways Current environment The company is well positioned to navigate the chaos and remains focused on long- term wealth creation for shareholders.
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