The Civil Diplomacy Fund

JUNE 2019 WEWE OPENOPEN UPUP FUTUREFUTURE TENDENCIESTENDENCIES ISSUE №1 Table of Contents Shadows of the diplomatic Forum in St. Petersburg – scandal in Ukraine and its new Russian economic 4 consequences 10 doctrine The context and shadow aspects of What is the geopolitical function of Fo- Ukrainian diplomatic scandal. Where is rum? Who can be the next president of the influence of Russian “Trojan horse” the Russian Federation? Which signals in its inspiration? The success of were addressed by Putin to Western pro-Russian party in Ukraine. Who will establishment? Reportage from be- be the next minister of foreign affairs? hind the scenes. What is going to be with Klimlin? Relations in the "gas People’s protests in Georgia: triangle": what to expect in reasons, implications and 13 the foreseeable future 19 possible scenarios Russian opinion about the gas nego- Protest in Georgia and Russian trace. tiations. What is the position of the The real nature of the conflict between Russian side? What are their red lines? people and authorities. What do both Possible scenarios for had situation. sides expect to achieve? The role of Text from the leading Russian expert? Ivanishvili, his hidden interests and fears. The importance of Georgian Minister of the Interior. Outlines of a potential Shadow politics alliance between China and Russia Politics is not only scientific search 23 30 and fair declarations. Sometimes the New geopolitical union between the backstage of important processes can Russian Federation and China: is it pos- define the real motives and interests sible? What are the outlines of such co- of main actors. Therefore we collect operation? The role of Russian political interesting rumors from Ukrainian and elites: how can their persuade Putin to Russian hidden political field. make turn in the East direction? What is the negative impact of the USA? We present you a complex analysis. 2 UKRAINIAN POINT The Civil Diplomacy Fund he Civil Diplomacy Fund is an independent public platform which brings together representatives of the public sector, academic and diplomatic circles, the expert community and the political establishment around ideas to form an unbiased interethnic dialogue, prepares the future political elite and competent government officials, develop pragmatic strategies for Ukrainian foreign policy, and Tform an objective Ukraine’s image abroad. As part of its research programs, the Fund is actively working on the preparation of comprehensive analytical materials on political, economic and social processes in the post-Soviet countries. Our methodology is based on the processing of open sources, the elaboration of our own views and the use of insider information of our contacts in public authorities, the apparatus of political parties and among diplomatic circles. We analyze key trends, shed light on the sidelines of the political pro- cess, determine possible consequences and give predictions about potential scenarios. krainian point is the first public media resource and analytical platform based on the principle of objectivity. The participants of our project are Ua new generation of young journalists and experts, they do not discredit themselves by connections with oligarchic media and have the goal of creating information space free from propaganda. Each active and competent representative of civil society can become our participant through the author's journalistic investigation, writing analysts or the private providing of materials for publica- tion. VOL. 1 | JUNE 2019 3 Shadows of the diplomatic scandal in Ukraine and its consequences OLEKSANDR HNYDIUK, POLITICAL EXPERT OF UKRAINIAN POINT, POLITICAL CONSULTANT s part of the active phase of the con- brewing over the last month. In particular, Zelensky frontation between the team of Vladimir reacted critically to the provisions prepared for him Zelensky and representatives of the during his visit to Brussels, partly coincided with the previous government, a tough conflict speech of former President Petro Poroshenko at a Abegan in the sphere of the formation of the coun- party congress. There were even talks of the need try's foreign policy. The Ukrainian President spoke for an official investigation of the sabotage, which out against Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin with did not end with anything. charges of concealing the latest diplomatic cor- Klimkin understood that as a member of the old respondence with the Russian Federation about team, he would not hold down as minister, repeat- the dismissal of captured Ukrainian sailors. The edly emphasizing his readiness to resign and seek- scandal provoked a lot of speculation and hidden ing the opportunity to get the post of ambassador implications, which are actively discussed on the to the United States. The only thing that kept him sidelines of Ukrainian politics. Let's try to under- in the status of minister was the absence of votes stand the complicated case, determine its main in the Verkhovna Rada for the legal suspension of elements, predict the possible consequences and cadence. scenarios of the situation. Although Zelensky has publicly commented posi- Differences in relations between the Presidential tively on Klimkin several times, the statements were Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have been formal. In practice, the President formed his own 4 UKRAINIAN POINT team, which was responsible for foreign policy in dangerous legal precedent that could be inter- the Office. The team included the Deputy Head of preted as recognition of the illegal annexation; the Presidential Office, Vadim Pristayko, the NSDC Secretary, Alexander Danilyuk, and the Deputy Head 2 secondly, the sailors had to go through the of the Presidential Office, Ruslan Ryaboshapka. Kerch Strait, defined by a bilateral agreement They accompanied the president during foreign as a joint shipping line, so the Russian note had visits, coordinated their organization, and, in fact, another hidden subtext - to encourage Ukraine isolated Klimkin from active work in this area, to recognize the Russian ownership of the strait demonstratively showing the lack of need for his and use it for their advantage to establish con- services. But, the event which occurred, pushed the trol over the navigation of ships in the region; ambitions of the President and the Minister. 3 thirdly, the decision of the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea to oblige the Russian As a reciprocal step towards the return of the Rus- Federation to release twenty-four captured sail- sian delegation to the PACE, on June 25 the Russian ors. In case of an investigation under Russian side sent an official note, where it offered to give law, Ukraine effectively renounces its claims Ukraine three ships captured in the Kerch Strait inci- and presents itself in an absurd way to the dent and release their crew. However, Russia set the international community, casting doubt on the requirements - to ensure their participation in the prospects for further lawsuits against Russia. investigation, which will be held under Russian law. Undoubtedly, the Ministry took the actions of the As a result, on June 26, the Ministry replied with a Russian Federation as a cunning diplomatic game reasoned response to a Russian note, where, guided and were right for three reasons: by the decision of the tribunal, they called on the Russian side to fulfill it. A kind of "Trojan horse" of 1 firstly, according to the Russians, the delay of Russian diplomacy not only provoked a public out- the Ukrainian sailors was due to the violation of cry (it is clear that many were justifiably subjected the sea borders of the annexed Crimea (in the to emotions, without going into details), but finally Kremlin, they are considered to be their). Thus, destabilized the situation in the authorities. At a the consent of the Ukrainian side to the pro- specially organized briefing, Zelensky spoke with posal of the Russian Federation would create a harsh criticism of Klimkin testifying to the final split VOL. 1 | JUNE 2019 5 in the working relationship. Secondly, an artificially created precedent of suc- cessful interaction between the Ukrainian politi- Although, Klimkin had all legal grounds to inde- cian, who will become a part of the future Verkhov- pendently decide on the note received and give na Rada, Medvedchuk and the separatists. You can an answer, the matter with diplomatic corre- already predict a scenario in which Russia will use spondence turned into a political plane. Analysis this case to argue its demand – a direct official of recent events and rumors determine certain dialogue between Kyiv, Lugansk and Donetsk, not grounds for politicization. only in the Minsk format; Against the background of the parliamentary Thirdly, an effective attempt was made to return election campaign in Ukraine, political competition Medvedchuk (barred by Zelensky from negotia- continues between political forces, one of which tions with militants on exchanges) to a big game remains the “European Solidarity” party of Petro with a view to further popularizing the plan for the Poroshenko. Companions of the former president reconciliation of Medvedchuk’s authorship to the and members of the new party list still remain European political establishment as his main nego- in power (in particular, Verkhovna Rada Speaker tiator on the Donbas case; Andriy Paruby), trying to " throw up roadblocks" of the SE team in order to discredit its competence to Fourthly, the Ukrainian authorities are exposed in the public and reduce the level of electoral support a negative light, which cannot find balance among of the Servant of the People. If the scenario of the the centers of the foreign policy agenda. It should sailors’ return is realized, the ratings of Zelensky be expected that Russia will use this circumstance and his associated party will predictably go up, in order to discredit the Ukrainian leadership and creating the prerequisites for receiving 50% of the send a manipulative message “about impossibility votes and one-party majority in parliament.

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