October 2016

Monthly Forecast

1 In Hindsight: The Overview Security Council Penholders 3 Status Update since our Russia will have the presidency of the Council in an Arria-formula meeting on illegal Israeli September Forecast October, when Council members will hold their settlements; 4 Secretary-General first colour-coded straw poll for the position of • Lebanon, the implementation of resolution Appointment the next Secretary-General, giving the first clear 1559; and 5 Sudan (Darfur) indication of which candidates could face a veto • Yemen, the regular update by the Special 7 Mali in a formal vote. Envoy. Russia has organised a debate on UN coopera- Council members will continue to monitor 8 Central African tion with regional and sub-regional organisations, developments in South Sudan and will consid- Republic in particular the Collective Security Treaty Orga- er the Secretary-General’s monthly assessment 9 Democratic Republic of nization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on the deployment and future requirements of the Congo and the Commonwealth of Independent States. the Regional Protection Force, as well as obsta- 11 Haiti The Council is expected to adopt a resolu- cles to setting up the Force and impediments to 13 Syria tion early in the month renewing member states’ UNMISS in carrying out its mandate. Other Afri- 15 South Sudan authorisation to interdict vessels used for migrant can issues that will be considered this month are: smuggling or human trafficking on the high seas • Central African Republic, the activities of 17 Israel/Palestine off the coast of Libya. The other adoption sched- MINUSCA; 18 Yemen uled for October is the renewal of MINUSTAH’s • Democratic Republic of the Congo, updates 20 Women, Peace and mandate in Haiti. on the political tension surrounding presiden- Security Members will be closely following develop- tial elections, and briefings on the activities 22 Lebanon ments in Syria, following the rupture of the 9 Sep- of MONUSCO and the Peace, Security and 23 Western Sahara tember cessation of hostilities agreement between Cooperation Framework for the DRC; 24 Notable Dates Russia and the US, and the massive military esca- • Mali, the activities of MINUSMA; lation in Aleppo. The regular monthly briefings on • Sudan (Darfur), the activities of UNAMID; the political, humanitarian and chemical weapons and tracks have been scheduled, but other Council • Western Sahara, an update on MINURSO and activity is possible, given the urgent nature of the its return to functionality. Syrian crisis. Finally, the Council will hold two annual There will be discussion on several other Mid- meetings in October, the open debate on women, dle East issues this month: peace and security and a private briefing by the • Israel/Palestine, the quarterly open debate and International Court of Justice.

In Hindsight: The Security Council Penholders

Contrary to a widespread assumption, the Secu- 2016, the US was serving as the penholder for rity Council’s so-called penholder system is not eight of these situation-specific agenda items, the a longstanding practice. Rather, it is still in its UK for seven and France for six. Elected mem- 30 September 2016 first decade. Under the current arrangement, bers have been serving as penholders on Afghani- This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. most Council outcomes (including resolutions, stan and Guinea-Bissau and on some thematic presidential statements or press statements) are issues. For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please drafted by one of the P3 (France, the UK and the Drafting of outcomes has been an increas- subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” US) which are the penholders on most situation- ing task ever since the workload of the Council series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. specific issues on the Council’s agenda. As of early exploded a quarter of a century ago, after more

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: The Security Council Penholders (con’t) than 40 years of paralysis during the Cold undertaking visiting missions. The chairper- Jordan as penholders on Syria’s humanitarian War. Members, permanent and elected alike, sons of the Council sanctions committees (all situation. After the end of Jordan’s term on took the initiative to produce a text. Specific, of which currently are elected members) are the Council, Egypt joined New Zealand and recurring topics were not seen as “belonging” generally not involved in the drafting of reso- Spain as co-penholder in 2016. to a particular Council member. Sometimes, lutions on countries to which the sanctions In February, Venezuela took the initiative members with an interest in a given situa- apply—not even when the draft deals with of organising a Council debate on the politi- tion would join forces or, on some occasions, sanctions issues. In at least two cases, there is cally sensitive issue of the Council’s approach compete to produce a draft first, in order a separate P3 penholder specifically for sanc- to the use of sanctions, which resulted in to then chair the negotiations. Occasionally, tions-related drafts. agreement on a rare note from the president members with shared concerns about a par- In some cases, when a crisis arises while on the topic (S/2016/170). The interest- ticular conflict would constitute “groups of the penholder is either unwilling or unable to ing aspect of the process was that Venezuela friends”, fairly temporary and changeable take the initiative (for example, because it is started out by circulating the draft to the ten arrangements which might be represented already managing other crises on the agenda), elected members and negotiating it initially in the Council by either a permanent or an the Council is paralysed and delayed in tak- within that group. elected member. ing any action. This “default” situation has In May, the Council adopted a resolu- Under the current penholder practice, quite possibly affected Council effectiveness tion on healthcare in armed conflict that was one of the P3 produces a draft that is then in addressing conflicts. drafted jointly by five elected members— agreed within the P3 group. The next step is The net effect is that while the demand Egypt, Japan, New Zealand, Uruguay and to negotiate the text with China and Russia. for Council action has become the highest Venezuela—who led all the negotiations on Only thereafter, sometimes very close to the it has ever been, the burden-sharing within the draft and secured co-sponsorship by most intended time of adoption, is it shared with the 15-member body is probably at its his- Council members and by several member the ten elected members. torical lowest. states not on the Council. Possibly the first example of this drafting In 2014, the Council issued a note by During its September presidency of the and negotiating practice was the lengthy pro- the president (S/2014/268) in which it pro- Council, elected member New Zealand took cess leading up to the adoption of the Coun- claimed that members of the Council agreed the initiative of holding a high-level debate on cil’s first resolutions on nuclear non-prolif- to support “where appropriate, the informal the overall situation in Syria, with the coun- eration in the Democratic People’s Republic arrangement whereby one or more Coun- try’s Prime Minister John Key presiding. of Korea and Iran in 2006. For a few years, cil members (as ‘penholder(s)’) initiate During the annual Security Council open this approach was used only for non-prolif- and chair the informal drafting process” of debate on working methods, the penholder eration issues, with some elected members documents, including resolutions, presiden- system has received considerable criticism occasionally protesting (in one case in 2008, tial statements and press statements of the from the UN leadership at large, the elected the adoption of a resolution on Iran had to Council. The note specified that any mem- Council members and also, in a recent case, be postponed by several days because South ber of the Council can be a penholder. The from a permanent member, Russia. Speaking Africa requested time for its capital to study document also emphasised Council mem- during the October 2015 open debate, the the text). In the next year or two, this drafting bers’ commitment to enhancing the partici- country’s Permanent Representative, Vitaly and negotiating system was gradually extend- pation of all members of the Council in the Churkin, said: ed to more and more situation-specific issues drafting process, including through early on the Council’s agenda. and timely exchanges and consultations, We are convinced that the Council This arrangement may have seemed logi- while continuing to consult informally with would benefit from a democratization of its cal in terms of Council efficiency and conve- non-Council members. work, facilitated by a more balanced dis- nience, but it soon developed several conse- The issuing of the 2014 note did not result tribution of obligations informally linked quences. Elected members were left out of the in any noticeable change in actual arrange- to the so-called penholdership of some dos- drafting process altogether and were brought ments. However, the dynamic with respect siers. Certain Council members should not into negotiations only at the very end—and to the penholder system had possibly already consider countries or even regions to be were often discouraged from making mean- begun to change in 2013. Elected members their exclusive purview or act as mentors ingful amendments because they might dis- Australia and Luxembourg were instrumen- on issues concerning those countries. Such turb the wording agreed to among the P5, tal in focusing the Council’s attention on the conduct is a remnant of days gone by that sometimes after painstaking negotiations. humanitarian aspect of the situation in Syria. we need to abandon. Furthermore, all members, permanent Joined in 2014 by another elected member, and non-permanent, began seeing the pen- Jordan, they drafted three resolutions on the With these recent developments and holder as the lead on all matters related to topic that were adopted by the Council and the longer preparatory period for incoming the situation at hand. This cascade effect has had an impact on humanitarian access, also Council members due to the fact that Coun- resulted in the penholder being seen as the prompting regular monthly briefings to the cil elections are now held in June, a new leader in taking the initiative on all other pos- Council. In 2015, after Australia and Lux- dynamic may develop and some new mem- sible Council actions, such as holding emer- embourg left the Council, elected members bers may be more eager to serve as penhold- gency meetings, organising open debates or New Zealand and Spain stepped in to join ers or co-penholders.

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 Status Update since our September Forecast

Counter-Terrorism further such actions (SC/12509). They also resolution 2308 which extended UNMIL’s On 1 September, Council members issued a called on member states to redouble their mandate, in its current configuration, for an press statement condemning a terrorist attack efforts to fully implement the sanctions mea- additional three months. The extension of the against the Chinese embassy in Kyrgyzstan sures against the DPRK. The DPRK pro- mission’s mandate will allow the Council to (SC/12502). A 4 September press statement tested the press statement in an 8 September review the recommendations from the Sec- condemned a terrorist attack perpetrated in letter to the Council, affirming its inten- retary-General’s assessment mission, due by the Philippines in which at least 14 people tion to continue to bolster its nuclear force 15 November, before ultimately deciding on were killed and over 67 injured (SC/12503). (S/2016/771). Following the DPRK’s fifth when to withdraw the mission. On 22 September, the Council held a minis- nuclear test on 9 September, Council mem- terial-level meeting on countering the terrorist bers again held urgent consultations and in a Non-Proliferation threat to civil aviation. The Secretary-General press statement strongly condemned the test At the initiative of the US, the Council on 23 of the International Civil Aviation Organiza- and expressed their intention to immediately September, adopted resolution 2310 on the tion (ICAO), Dr. Fang Liu, briefed. At the start work on a resolution imposing “appro- occasion of the 20th anniversary of the opening meeting, the Council adopted resolution priate measures under Article 41” against the for signature of the Comprehensive Test Ban 2309 which called on member states to work DPRK (SC/12513). In a 9 September let- Treaty. Egypt abstained, while all other Coun- within ICAO to ensure that its international ter, the Republic of Korea called for tougher cil members voted in favour (S/PV.7776). The security standards are reviewed, adapted and sanctions against the DPRK and said it would resolution stressed the importance of achiev- implemented to effectively address this threat. maintain a “posture of heightened readiness” ing the early entry into force of the treaty and According to the concept note circulated by against further provocations (S/2016/775). urged all states that have either not signed or New Zealand, the objective of the meeting was ratified it to do so without delay, while encour- to highlight the importance of having effective Colombia aging all state signatories to promote its uni- security arrangements in place at airports giv- On 13 September, the Council adopted reso- versality and entry into force. Also, the 1540 en the “iconic” nature of attacks against civil lution 2307 approving the Secretary-General’s Committee met on 27 September to consider aviation by terrorist groups (S/2016/791). 18 August recommendations (S/2016/729) on the first draft of the report on the comprehen- the size, operational aspects and mandate of sive review of resolution 1540 which is due for Guinea-Bissau the UN Mission in Colombia (S/PV.7768). On submission to the Council by 1 November. Following the Council’s 30 August briefing 21 September, the Council was briefed by Sec- and consultations on Guinea-Bissau, Council retary-General Ban Ki-moon, and President Somalia members issued a press statement on 4 Sep- Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia delivered a On 27 September, Special Representative tember expressing serious concern over the short statement and presented the peace agree- Michael Keating briefed (S/PV.7778) the political impasse, urging national actors to ment between the Colombian government and Council on the latest report of the Secre- abide by the constitution and the rule of law FARC-EP to the Council (S/PV.7773). tary-General on Somalia (S/2016/763). A and to engage in dialogue to find a solution representative from the AU also briefed on (SC/12504). The statement further stressed Libya the activities of AMISOM. On 28 Septem- the urgency of deploying the ECOWAS presi- On 13 September, the head of UNSMIL, ber, the Council issued a press statement dential mission and encouraged ECOWAS Special Representative Martin Kobler, that expressed regret at the 26 September and the CPLP to take steps towards organis- briefed the Council (S/PV.7769). The Coun- announcement by the Federal Indirect Elec- ing a meeting of the International Contact cil was also briefed by the chair of the 1970 tion Implementation Team that the timetable Group on Guinea-Bissau. Issuing the state- Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador for the 2016 electoral process required a fur- ment was delayed due to Council members’ Ramlan Ibrahim (Malaysia). ther extension (SC/12536). negotiations on language related to donor funding, in particular whether the release of Afghanistan Protection of Civilians pledges should be dependent on finding a On 14 September, the Council held its quar- On 28 September, the Council held a brief- solution to the political impasse. terly debate on Afghanistan (S/PV.7771) ing on the protection of health care in armed which focused on the most recent UNAMA conflict (S/PV.7779). The meeting focused on ICTY report (S/2016/768). Special Representative the Secretary-General’s recommendations on On 6 September, the Council adopted resolu- Tadamichi Yamamoto briefed the Council for this issue, as requested by the Council in res- tion 2306 amending the Statute of the ICTY. the first time in his new role. On the same day, olution 2286 on 3 May (S/2016/722). Brief- the Council issued a presidential statement ers included Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea calling on the international community to ICRC President Peter Maurer and Médecins On 6 September, Council members met in continue its civilian and development efforts Sans Frontières President Joanne Liu. consultations to discuss the ballistic missile to assist Afghanistan, ahead of the 5 October launches conducted by the DPRK on 5 Sep- 2016 Brussels Conference hosted by Afghani- Golan Heights tember. In a 6 September press statement, stan and the EU (S/PRST/2016/14). On 29 September, the Department of Peace- they strongly condemned the launches as a keeping Operations briefed Council mem- grave violation of relevant Council resolu- Liberia bers in consultations on the Secretary-Gen- tions and called on the DPRK to refrain from On 14 September, the Council adopted eral’s latest UNDOF report (S/2016/803).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Secretary-General Appointment

Expected Council Action colour-coded straw polls before the Council the fifth straw poll, three candidates—Vesna Council members will hold their first colour- recommended Kofi Annan in a formal ballot. Pusić (Croatia), Igor Lukšić (Montenegro) coded straw poll in early October as a further It is unclear at this stage which of the leading and Christina Figueres (Costa Rica)— had test of the viability of candidates who have candidates may face a red ballot or veto from withdrawn. At press time, a new candidate, been nominated for the position of the next permanent members. Kristalina Georgieva, had just been nominat- Secretary-General. Since July, five undifferen- ed by Bulgaria, which withdrew its support tiated straw polls have been held, but this one Key Recent Developments for Irina Bokova. will provide the first clear indication of which On 1 September, Council members dis- In all five undifferentiated straw polls, candidates could face a veto in a formal vote. cussed the selection of the next Secretary- Guterres has been the front runner, while The Council will then decide whether it is General during the regular monthly breakfast the second spot and at least three of the top ready to move to a formal vote on a resolution of Council permanent representatives hosted five spots have been taken by Eastern Euro- conveying its recommendation to the General by New Zealand, as president of the Coun- peans. The leading woman candidates have Assembly for the next Secretary-General. cil for September. New Zealand informed been Malcorra and Bokova; in the fifth straw The system of using straw polls in the members that because it has a candidate poll, they were in fourth (tied with Turk) and selection of the UN Secretary-General was an vying for the position of Secretary-General, sixth places, respectively. innovation created to break the deadlock in it had asked Russia, as the next president of 1981 between Kurt Waldheim (Austria), who the Council, to manage the conduct of any Developments in the General Assembly after serving two terms as Secretary-General straw polls in September. Members decided The 2016 resolution on the revitalisation of had chosen to run for an unprecedented third at the breakfast to hold straw polls on 9 and the work of the General Assembly was adopt- term, and Salim Ahmed Salim (Tanzania). 26 September, followed by the first colour- ed on 13 September. Following up last year’s Colour-coded ballot papers differentiating coded straw poll in early October. resolution, which contained significant lan- between the permanent and elected members, Council members have thus now held five guage on the selection of the Secretary-Gen- used for the first time in 1991, have been part straw polls on 21 July, 5 August, 29 August, eral, this year’s resolution highlights develop- of every selection process ever since. 9 September and 26 September, all of which ments in this area, including the December The number of colour-coded rounds were undifferentiated as between the elected 2015 joint letter and the informal dialogues has varied. In 1991 and 2006 the Council and permanent members. All 12 candidates in the General Assembly. It also stresses that moved to a formal vote after only one colour- who had been formally nominated at the time the appointment to senior posts should be coded ballot, whereas in 1996 there were six took part in the first straw poll. By the time of inclusive and transparent.

RESULTS OF THE FIRST FIVE STRAW POLLS*

CANDIDATE FIRST STRAW SECOND STRAW THIRD STRAW FOURTH STRAW FIFTH STRAW POLL POLL POLL POLL POLL

António Guterres 12-0-3 11-2-2 11-3-1 12-2-1 12-2-1

Danilo Türk 11-2-2 7-5-3 5-6-4 7-6-2 7-7-1

Irina Bokova 9-4-2 7-7-1 7-5-3 7-5-3 6-7-2

Vuk Jeremić 9-5-1 8-4-3 7-5-3 9-4-2 8-6-1

Srgjan Kerim 9-5-1 6-7-2 6-7-2 8-7-0 6-9-0

Helen Clark 8-5-2 6-8-1 6-8-1 6-7-2 6-9-0

Miroslav Lajčák 7-3-5 2-6-7 9-5-1 10-4-1 8-7-0

Susana Malcorra 7-4-4 8-6-1 7-7-1 7-7-1 7-7-1

Christiana Figueres 5-5-5 5-8-2 2-12-1 5-10-0

Natalia Gherman 4-4-7 3-10-2 2-12-1 3-11-1 3-11-1

Igor Lukšić 3-7-5 2-9-4

Vesna Pusić 2-11-2

*Votes are in the order of Encourage-Discourage-No Opinion Expressed.

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE SECRETARY-GENERAL APPOINTMENT General Assembly Resolution A/RES/70/305 (13 September 2016) was on the revitalisation of the work of the General Assembly. Letters 15 July 2016 letter from the president of the General Assembly containing the 18 May letter from ACT and the 29 June letter from Algeria as chair of the Non- Aligned Movement on the selection and appointment process of the next Secretary-General and requesting the co-chairs of the Ad-hoc Working Group on revitalization of the General Assembly to explore members states’ views. 13 September 2016 letters from the president of the 70th session of the General Assembly to the president of the Council and the president of the 71st session of the General Assembly on the changes in the selection process and future improvements. 23 September 2016 letter from the president of the General Assembly informing the membership that he would ask two Special Advisers to consult with member states.

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 Secretary-General Appointment (con’t)

The Accountability, Coherence and relating to the possible appointment of co- • concerns of those who are “discouraging” Transparency group (ACT) and the Non facilitators and the appointment resolution. leading candidates; Aligned Movement sent letters, on 18 May The interest in having co-facilitators to draft • suggesting that permanent members make and 29 June respectively, to the president the appointment resolution stems from the known their votes in the interest of greater of the General Assembly, on the drafting of desire of many in the membership to have transparency, and in order to allow more the appointment resolution and a possible a more substantive resolution which could productive Council discussions on a pos- facilitation process. At the invitation of the address issues such as the term of appoint- sible candidate; president of the General Assembly, the co- ment of the next Secretary-General and the • encouraging new candidates to come for- chairs of the Ad hoc Working Group on the appointment of senior officials. ward; and Revitalisation of the work of the General • conducting a formal ballot even if the lead- Assembly organised a meeting on 29 August. Key Issues ing candidates are being “discouraged” by Twenty-eight delegations participated, with The key issue is agreeing on a candidate a permanent member, to determine if that most of them urging the immediate appoint- within a timeframe that will allow the next discourage will translate into a veto. ment of facilitators to allow swift adoption of Secretary-General adequate preparation time the appointment resolution once the Council before the end of the current Secretary-Gen- Council Dynamics made its recommendation. Among those that eral’s term. Although there have been five undifferenti- raised concerns about having facilitators and An important issue is how to avoid a pro- ated straw polls, given that polling is secret, a course of action which might cause division longed period of straw polling as a result of there is no conclusive knowledge of Council and controversy were China, France, the UK competing vetoes, and if this were to occur, members’ positions on the candidates. Pub- and US; Russia said it would not oppose the how to break the deadlock. lic statements from some Council members appointment of facilitators. On 23 Septem- A key issue in relation to late entry candi- have sometimes revealed a preference for a ber, the president of the General Assembly dates would be ensuring that they go through particular candidate, gender or region. How- issued a letter informing the membership that the same steps in the selection process, includ- ever, Council members are aware that ulti- he would ask two Special Advisers from his ing the General Assembly informal dialogues mately votes will be cast based on a number office to consult with member states on the and a private meeting with Council members. of different considerations, and that members’ best way forward towards the appointment Since the ballots in the colour-coded straw true positions may not be revealed until the resolution. He also said that it is his inten- polls will be secret, not knowing which per- final stages of the process, if at all. tion to convene a General Assembly meet- manent member has cast a negative vote may Some members have indicated that they ing to engage in substantive dialogue with the become an issue. preferred not to have any new candidates at Secretary-General-designate. A further issue is whether to include in this point, while others have been more open On 13 September, the outgoing president the recommendation resolution the proposed to the possibility, but have made it clear that of the General Assembly sent a letter to the term of office, when some member states new candidates should go through the same president of the Council on the Secretary- maintain that this is a matter for decision by process as the other candidates. General appointment process, recapping the the General Assembly, which may wish to A few elected members are of the view that cooperation between the Council and the consider a single term. once the colour-coded ballots begin, their role General Assembly and setting out the expecta- will diminish. However, it is clear that any can- tions of the membership for the remainder of Options didate needs the votes of a significant number the process, as well as offering suggestions for Among the options if the straw polls appear of elected members, as well as no veto, in order improving the process. On the same day, he deadlocked are: to be a serious contender for the position. sent a letter to the incoming president of the • having a frank informal discussion about General Assembly conveying developments the candidates in order to ascertain the

Sudan (Darfur)

Expected Council Action Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping fighting in the Jebel Marra region and by In October, the Council will hold a brief- Operations Hervé Ladsous is expected to brief. refugees fleeing the conflict in South Sudan, ing, followed by consultations, on the report No outcome was anticipated at press time. continues to unfold in Darfur, amid limited of the Secretary-General on the UN/AU progress on the political front. There are now Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID), Key Recent Developments approximately 2.6 million displaced per- whose mandate expires on 30 June 2017. A dire humanitarian crisis, exacerbated by sons in Darfur. Between 1 January and 31

UN DOCUMENTS ON DARFUR Security Council Resolution S/RES/2296 (29 June 2016) renewed the mandate of UNAMID until 30 June 2017. Security Council Meetings S/PV.7728 (29 June 2016) was the meeting at which resolution 2296 was adopted and included explanations of vote by China, Egypt, Russia, the UK, the US and Venezuela. S/PV.7716 (14 June 2016) was a UNAMID briefing. Security Council Press Statement SC/12474 (11 August 2016) welcomed the signing on 8 August of the Roadmap Agreement by opposition groups and commending the government of Sudan for having signed the agreement on 16 March.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Sudan (Darfur) (con’t)

July, fighting in Jebel Marra displaced more On 14 June, Under-Secretary-General the poorest and most vulnerable. The report than 158,000 people. Between 1 January and Ladsous briefed the Council on UNAMID. found that unilateral coercive measures targeting 4 September, more than 90,000 refugees Ladsous described the lack of progress in Sudan should be limited in time and be phased out in accordance with the fulfilment by Sudan crossed into Darfur from South Sudan. finding a political resolution to the Darfur of clear objectives. It proposed a step-by-step On 8 August, several rebel groups in conflict, while underscoring that intercom- approach to removing these measures, starting Sudan—the Justice and Equality Movement munal clashes remain “a major cause of inse- with those with the most severe impact on the (JEM), the Sudan Liberation Army-Minni curity in Darfur”. He emphasised that con- enjoyment of human rights. Minawi (SLA-MM) and the Sudan People’s tinued government restrictions on access and Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N)— freedom of movement significantly hampered Key Issues and the opposition National Umma Party UNAMID’s operations. The Council adopt- The underlying issue for the Council is the signed the “Roadmap for Ending the Con- ed resolution 2296 on 29 June, renewing the continuing instability of the security and flict in Sudan”. The roadmap calls for a ces- mandate of UNAMID for one year. humanitarian environment in Darfur, with sation of hostilities, humanitarian access and little progress on the political front. a more inclusive national dialogue process. Sanctions-Related Developments An ongoing key issue is the limited lev- When the government signed the roadmap On 27 September, Ambassador Rafael Ramírez el of cooperation that Sudan accords to the (Venezuela), the chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanc- on 21 March, the rebel groups had refrained mission. Restrictions on the movement of tions Committee, provided the quarterly briefing from signing out of concerns about govern- to Council members on the Committee’s work. He peacekeepers and delays in the shipment of ment control over the national dialogue pro- reported that a new panel of experts had been equipment to the mission continue to hinder cess. In a press statement issued on 11 August, appointed and that the final report of the 2015 UNAMID’s operations. Council members welcomed the signing of panel of experts had been published. Both the A further important issue is what future appointment of the panel and the publication of the roadmap by the opposition groups and steps will be taken regarding an exit strategy last year’s final report had been held up for sev- commended the government of Sudan for eral months by Russia. Ramírez further conveyed for the mission, especially given divergent having signed it earlier this year. the contents of the 8 July briefing to the Sanc- views on this issue in the Council. The joint Soon after signing the document, the tions Committee by Zainab Bangura, the Special working group on the exit strategy—consist- opposition groups met with government Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, ing of representatives of the AU, the UN and who expressed concern at the high rate of sexual representatives in Addis Ababa from 9 to 14 the government of Sudan—is expected to violence in Darfur. August. These talks failed to make progress, convene in October. however, as they were mired in disagree- Human Rights-Related Developments ments over security arrangements in Darfur The Human Rights Council (HRC) considered the Options and humanitarian access in the Two Areas report of the independent expert on the situation One option is for the Council to request a (Sudan’s Blue Nile and South Kordofan of human rights in Sudan during its 33rd session briefing on the work of UNAMID from Mar- in September (A/HRC/33/65). The report, cov- states). With regard to Darfur, the govern- ering October 2015 to June 2016, concluded tin Ihoeghian Uhomoibhi—the Joint AU-UN ment wanted information on the location that major human rights challenges persist and Special Representative for Darfur, the head of rebel forces as a precondition to a cessa- that, notwithstanding the ongoing national dia- of UNAMID and the Joint Chief Mediator. tion of hostilities; the rebels were reluctant logue, there is growing concern about the per- Uhomoibhi has been in his post since Octo- to provide this information. At press time, vasive actions of the National Intelligence and ber 2015 and has yet to brief the Council, as Security Service and its impact on the exercise the AU High-Level Implementation Panel of civil and political rights in the country, includ- Under-Secretary-General Ladsous generally (AUHIP), responsible for mediating the con- ing widespread reports of arbitrary arrests and provides UNAMID briefings. flict, was engaging with both sides in the hope incommunicado detention. The report found that Members might also request an infor- of reconvening them, but no date had been the human rights situation in Darfur and in South mal interactive dialogue with Thabo Mbe- confirmed for further negotiations. Kordofan and Blue Nile states remains precarious, ki, chair of the AUHIP, on the status of the with continuing fighting and breaches of human On 12 September, Abdul Wahid Mohamed rights and international humanitarian law by all peace talks between the government and the el-Nur, the leader of the Sudan Liberation parties to the conflict. Hundreds of thousands opposition groups. Movement-Abdul Wahid (SLM-AW) rebel of civilians continue to suffer the effects of the A demarche by the Council president group, announced that his group would con- armed conflict through direct attacks, displace- to the Sudanese permanent representa- tinue its efforts to overthrow the regime. The ment and limited access to humanitarian assis- tive regarding the importance of removing tance, and the peace process continues to face SLM-AW, which engaged in heavy fighting significant challenges without the active- par impediments on the movement of peacekeep- with government forces earlier this year, did ticipation of some major armed movements, the ers and the shipment of equipment to UNA- not participate in the recent negotiations with report said. MID could be a useful option. the government. In his 12 September state- The HRC also considered the report of the An additional option is to issue a presiden- ment, Wahid Mohamed el-Nur asserted that special rapporteur on the negative impact of tial statement that: unilateral coercive measures on the enjoyment previous efforts to negotiate with the regime of human rights, on his mission to Sudan (A/ • urges the government to eliminate restric- had been unsuccessful because it had not HRC/33/48/Add.1). The report gave an overview tions on the freedom of movement of adhered to its agreements. In recent months, of the unilateral coercive measures imposed on UNAMID personnel and on the shipment intermittent low-intensity fighting has been the Sudan by different states and their impact of equipment to the mission; reported between government forces and the on basic human rights, including the rights to life, • encourages continued negotiations health, education and food, affecting in particular SLM-AW in the Jebel Marra region. between the government and the

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 Sudan (Darfur) (con’t)

opposition forces; and violations committed by government forces, process and the protection of civilians, among • urges donors to support the 2016 Human- the impunity for these violations and the gov- other factors. itarian Response Plan for Sudan, which ernment’s lack of cooperation with UNA- Other Council members, including China, was only 41 percent funded at press time. MID. These states have emphasised the dif- Egypt and Russia, stress the importance of ficult security and humanitarian environment Sudan’s sovereignty and maintain that the Council Dynamics in Darfur. Given this view, the US argued government is making a good faith effort to Perceptions of the government of Sudan and during its explanation of vote on resolution bring peace to Darfur. These member states the situation in Darfur vary widely among 2296 on 29 June, which renewed the UNA- have urged that a clear exit strategy for the Council members. France, the UK and the MID mandate, that “any calls for the mission mission be developed sooner rather than later. US have tended to be critical of the govern- to leave the Sudan are woefully premature” The UK is the penholder on Darfur, while ment of Sudan for contributing to the insta- and must be linked to the achievement of spe- Venezuela chairs the 1591 Sudan Sanctions bility in Darfur, referring to human rights cific benchmarks related to an inclusive peace Committee.

Mali

Expected Council Action days earlier, Council members had been and the Alliance Nationale pour la Sauveg- In October, the Council expects to receive a briefed by the head of MINUSMA, Special arde de l’Identité Peule et la Restauration de briefing from Under-Secretary-General for Representative Mahamat Saleh Annadif, at la Justice (ANSIPRJ), which was formed in Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous. the initiative of Spain and the UK as co- June. For a few hours on 3 September, ter- The mandate of the UN Multidimension- chairs of the 2242 Informal Expert Group rorist group Ansar Dine took over the town al Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali on Women, Peace and Security. of Boni in the Mopti region after the MDSF (MINUSMA) expires on 30 June 2017. In a 20 September press statement, had allegedly retreated earlier in the day. Also MINUSMA expressed its concern at the on that day, the minister of defence was dis- Key Recent Developments deteriorating situation in Kidal, given the missed. Of the groups mentioned, AQIM and The security situation in northern Mali has repeated violations of the ceasefire and the Ansar Dine are listed as terrorist groups by deteriorated significantly, with continued alleged human rights violations, which are the Al-Qaida/ISIL Sanctions Committee. violations of the ceasefire along ethnic lines. currently being investigated. It also con- MINUSMA continues to be a target of Members of the Ifoghas ethnic group, who are demned the obstacles imposed on the deliv- asymmetric attacks: since it was established in part of the coalition of armed groups known as ery of humanitarian aid. 2013, 69 peacekeepers have been killed. On the Coordination, have clashed with GATIA, The volatility of the security situation has 8 August, Council members issued a press a rebel group drawn mainly from the Imghad contributed to, and been affected by, the statement condemning the terrorist attacks ethnic group, which is part of the coalition lack of progress in the implementation of that occurred between 5 and 7 August against of armed groups known as the Platform. the agreement. The parties continue to lag MINUSMA in Kidal. To better operate in Tensions among these groups had subsided in implementing key measures of the agree- Mali’s non-permissive environment, resolu- after bilateral talks held in Anéfis in October ment, including conducting joint patrols, the tion 2295 requested MINUSMA to adopt a 2015. However, tensions resumed earlier this appointment and establishment of interim more proactive and robust posture to carry year, and clashes on 21 and 22 July in Kidal authorities, and progress on the cantonment out its mandate, and increased its force levels over the control of the city and of trafficking of armed groups. The conclusions of a 23 to a ceiling of 13,289 military personnel (up routes resulted in some 20 dead. Clashes have September ministerial meeting, held in New from 11,240) and 1,920 police personnel (up continued despite efforts to de-escalate ten- York on the sidelines of the General Assembly, from 1,440). The resolution also highlighted sions among armed groups which signed the urged the parties to undertake concrete steps the need to ensure MINUSMA’s force pro- Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation in to swiftly deliver on their obligations as per tection through the deployment of necessary Mali through its main follow-up mechanism, the agreement. capabilities and resources and included a ref- the Comité de Suivi de l’Accord, as well as Terrorist attacks targeting civilians and erence to improving its intelligence capaci- through the involvement of MINUSMA, the the Malian Defence and Security Forces ties within the limits of its mandate. Three Malian government and Niger. (MDSF) are rising in central Mali. A 21 July months after the adoption of this resolution, On 16 September Council members were attack against a MDSF camp in Nampala, in the additional personnel and capabilities for briefed on the situation in northern Mali as the Ségou region, killed 17 and injured 35 the mission had not been deployed. part of a situational awareness briefing pre- soldiers. The attack was jointly carried out On 22 August, Ansar Dine member sented by the Executive Office of the Secre- and claimed by the Macina Liberation Front, Ahmad Al Faqi Al Mahdi pleaded guilty at his tary-General with relevant departments. Two Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) trial at the ICC to the war crime of destroying

UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2295 (29 June 2016) renewed MINUSMA’s mandate. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7719 (16 June 2016) was a briefing by Annadif.Security Council Press Statement SC/12473 (8 August 2016) condemned the terrorist attacks between 5 and 7 August against MINUSMA, killing one and injuring six.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Mali (con’t) historical and religious monuments in Tim- The marked increase in terrorist attacks accelerating the implementation of the agree- buktu in 2012. On 27 September, the ICC and their reach, the deliberate targeting of ment. One of the most contentious issues in Trial Chamber VIII declared him guilty and MINUSMA and the safety concerns of troop- the negotiations of resolution 2295 was lan- sentenced him to nine years of imprisonment. and police-contributing countries are further guage on the mission’s posture. Most Mali- key issues for the Council to address. an stakeholders who interacted with Council Key Issues members during their March visit to Mali The deterioration of the security situation in Options stressed the need for a more robust mandate Kidal and in northern and central Mali more The Council could adopt a statement: for the mission. During negotiations there broadly, as well as the spate of inter-ethnic • expressing its readiness to impose sanc- were some divisions over whether the chang- violence, are urgent issues for the Council. tions on those violating the ceasefire and es proposed by France—such as requesting An overarching issue is the slow imple- undermining the implementation of the MINUSMA to move to a more proactive and mentation of the agreement and the lack of agreement; robust posture to carry out its mandate, and progress in such areas as confidence-building • urging the parties to fulfil their commit- including language regarding the anticipation measures, reconciliation and return of basic ments to implement the agreement and of threats—could expand the mission’s posture services to the north. Ensuring that canton- emphasising the importance of holding in such a way that it could ultimately be used ment and the disarmament, demobilisation the inclusive Conférence d’entente natio- to engage pre-emptively in counter-terrorism and reintegration of combatants take place nale to advance national reconciliation; activities. After Russia broke silence, language within a broader context of security sector • calling on member states to supply key was added to ensure that direct operations are reform and accountability for human rights capacities and personnel that the mission “only” carried out when threats to civilians are violations is an important issue. is lacking; and serious and credible. Council members might Addressing the grievances and frustrations • requesting the Monitoring Team of the be interested in discussing the impact of this of different communities that are not seeing Al-Qaida/ISIL Sanctions Committee to language, if any, on the mission’s capacity to the impact of the peace dividends in their report on ways to curb the terrorist threat respond to the deteriorating security situation daily lives, including youth at risk of being in Mali, including from non-listed groups and ceasefire violations. Council members recruited by violent groups, is a related issue. such as the Macina Liberation Front and continue to be worried about attacks target- The limited mobility of MINUSMA and the ANSIPRJ. ing MINUSMA in northern Mali. its insufficient capacities and resources to ful- France is the penholder on Mali. fil its mandate in the current context are also Council and Wider Dynamics key issues. Council members remain united in support of

Central African Republic

Expected Council Action tasks” and “additional tasks”. The immedi- and reintegration programmes. In October, Special Representative Parfait ate tasks include the protection of civilians After attacks waned during and following Onanga-Anyanga will brief on the strategic by “maintaining a proactive deployment, a the April elections, violence has been on the review of the mandate of the UN Multidi- mobile and flexible posture”, the promotion rise in recent months, with Muslim-dominat- mensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in and protection of human rights and facilitat- ed ex-Séléka and Christian anti-Balaka fac- the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). ing a secure environment for the immediate, tions still controlling large parts of the coun- full, safe and unhindered delivery of human- try. Elements from the two groups continue Key Recent Developments itarian assistance. The core tasks focus on to run parallel administrations in various On 26 July, the Council adopted resolution the sustainable reduction in the presence of, areas, including parallel taxation systems to 2301, renewing the mandate of MINUSCA and threat posed by, armed groups, by sup- fund their activities. The Lord’s Resistance in the Central African Republic (CAR) until porting the reconciliation and stabilisation Army (LRA) also remains active in the east 15 November 2017. The resolution divides political processes, the extension of state of the country. Intercommunal tensions are the mission’s tasks into “immediate prior- authority and support for security sector common, as is the widespread availability of ity tasks”, “core priority tasks”, “essential reform and disarmament, demobilisation small arms.

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE CAR Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2301 (26 July 2016) renewed the mandate of MINUSCA until 15 November 2017. S/RES/2262 (27 January 2016) renewed the CAR sanctions regime until 31 January 2017 and the mandate of the Panel of Experts until 28 February 2017. Secretary-General’s Report S/2016/565 (22 June 2016) was on the strategic review of MINUSCA. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7734 (8 July 2016) was a briefing on the situation in the CAR.Security Council Press Statement SC/12329 (18 April 2016) condemned the killing of a MINUSCA peacekeeper. Sanctions Committee Documents SC/12487 (23 August 2016) was a Committee press release that announced targeted sanctions on Ali Kony and Salim Kony, deputies in the LRA. S/2016/694 (9 August 2016) was the midterm report of the Panel of Experts of the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General Parfait Onanga-Anyanga (Gabon) MINUSCA Force Commander Lieutenant General Balla Keïta (Senegal) MINUSCA Size, Composition and Cost of Mission Strength as of 31 August 2016 10,245 troops (including 148 military observers and 1,759 police), 760 international civilian personnel, 242 local civilian staff and 154 UN volunteers. Approved budget (1 July 2016-30 June 2017) $920 million Mission duration April 2014 to present

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 Central African Republic (con’t)

Clashes broke out on 16 September notes that ex-Séléka groups maintain their fight- ex-Séléka fighters and establishing state between anti-Balaka and ex-Séléka groups ing capacity through illicit arms trafficking from authority in areas under their control. in Ndomete and Kaga Bandoro, some 350 the Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Also on 5 August, Zainab Bangura, the kilometres north of Bangui, leaving dead at Special Representative of the Secretary-General Options least six civilians. MINUSCA responded by for Sexual Violence, briefed members, emphasis- The Council could: dispatching troops to the area to separate ing the important role of the UN and humanitarian • call on MINUSCA contingents to adopt a the two groups. On 10 September, gunmen actors in ending impunity with regard to sexual proactive approach in carrying its imme- raided several villages in the central Kouango violence in the CAR. diate priority tasks by expanding areas The Committee also met on 9 September with region, killing six people, torching houses and the representatives of the CAR, Chad, Ethiopia, under its control and for the Secretariat forcing some 2,000 people to flee. South Africa, Sudan and Uganda to discuss the to provide the mission with appropriate Related but not limited to the operations mid-term report. capabilities; of rebel groups, crime rates are also very On 23 August, the Committee imposed target- • call on countries in the region to cooper- high. On 17 August, for example, MINUS- ed sanctions on Ali Kony and Salim Kony, deputies ate and implement the sanctions regime in in the LRA. CA arrested four Central African Armed order to eliminate illicit arms trafficking to Forces soldiers and ten civilians in Lobaye the rebel groups and the funding of their Prefecture and handed them over to the Human Rights-Related Developments operations through illicit exploitation of CAR authorities for allegedly forcing civil- The Human Rights Council considered the report natural resources; and of the independent expert on the situation of ians to mine for diamonds at gunpoint for • act through the Sanctions Committee to human rights in the CAR, Marie-Thérèse Keita two weeks. Bocoum, during its 33rd session in September impose further sanctions on individuals Despite appeals by newly elected President (A/HRC/33/63). The report—covering the period and entities. Faustin-Archange Touadéra for reconciliation from July 2015 to June 2016, during which time dialogue, the majority of ex-Séléka leaders Bocoum conducted three country visits—detailed Council and Wider Dynamics human rights violations, including killings, torture remain discontented, seeing little prospect Council members were hopeful that the end and inhuman and degrading treatment, arbitrary for themselves and their combatants in the arrest and gender-based violence, mostly perpe- of the transition period and the installation of new government and armed forces. Rein- trated by armed groups. According to the report, the newly elected government would provide tegration efforts for combatants who have MINUSCA documented 21 cases of sexual exploi- momentum to address some of the funda- surrendered their arms have been very slow. tation and sexual abuse allegedly committed by mental issues facing the country, including international forces against children during the According to the Panel of Experts assisting constructive dialogue with armed groups and reporting period. In 19 of these cases, the viola- the CAR Sanctions Committee, the rivalry tions were attributed to MINUSCA peacekeepers, their disarmament, demobilisation and rein- among various ex-Séléka factions appears, for including seven alleged rapes of girls between 11 tegration and, later on, security sector reform the time being, to rule out the possibility of and 17 years of age. The report recommended programmes, accountability measures and the ex-Séléka forming a unified front against that the government endorse, as soon as possible, re-establishing state authority and institu- the government. the road map on disarmament, demobilisation and tions, including incarceration facilities and reintegration, and encourage inclusive national The humanitarian situation in the country reconciliation. It also recommended that MINUS- judicial institutions. remains dire. According to the UN Refugee CA respond more proactively to threats against Although the elections were relatively Agency, as of 10 September there are over civilians, be more present in displaced persons peaceful and on the whole credible and 450,000 refugees outside the CAR and over camps and enclaves, and strengthen mechanisms took place less than six months ago, Coun- 385,000 internally displaced people. to monitor and communicate information on sexu- cil members are increasingly of the view that al and gender-based violence. the momentum on the ground has dissipat- Sanctions-Related Developments ed, and that as long as state authority is not On 5 August, the coordinator of the Panel of Key Issues established and rebel groups remain in con- Experts of the 2127 CAR Sanctions Commit- With Touadéra and his government now in trol of large areas, sustainable progress will be tee briefed members on the Panel’s mid-term report. The report notes that the mineral sec- place, sustainable progress in lowering the impossible to achieve. tor, in particular in the east, continues to attract levels of violence is a major priority. France is the penholder on the CAR, armed groups seeking to loot or establish paral- A related issue is permanently disarm- and Ukraine is the chair of the Sanctions lel taxation systems around the mines. It further ing and reintegrating the anti-Balaka and Committee.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Democratic Republic of the Congo

Expected Council Action be further delayed, but not the presidential situation, violence committed by rebel groups In October, the Security Council will be election. Participants in the dialogue tenta- in eastern DRC continues. According to the briefed by Maman Sambo Sidikou, the Spe- tively agreed to form an interim government UN Joint Human Rights Office (UNJHRO), cial Representative of the Secretary-General that will include opposition members and will 135 civilians were killed in areas affected by and head of the UN Organization Stabiliza- run the country until elections can be held. A armed conflict in August. On 16 August, tion Mission in the Democratic Republic of specific date has yet to be determined, but it Council members issued a press statement the Congo (MONUSCO). The Special Envoy seems that elections will not be held before condemning the killing of at least 50 civilians to the Great Lakes Region, Said Djinnit, will July 2017, when the CENI expects to finish on 13 August in the area of Rwangoma village, brief on the latest report on the implementa- its update of the voter census. North Kivu Province, by suspected members tion of the Peace, Security and Cooperation To contribute to the national dialogue, the of the Ugandan Islamist Allied Democratic Framework Agreement. government has released 118 political pris- Forces rebel group. The mandate of MONUSCO expires on oners. Nevertheless, tensions remain high 31 March 2017. regarding the ability of opposition parties Sanctions-Related Developments to participate in political activities leading On 24 August, the Group of Experts assisting the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee briefed Commit- Key Recent Developments up to the elections amid an atmosphere of tee members on its programme of work. On the political front, the presidential elec- increased harassment and human rights vio- The chair of the Committee, Ambassador Amr tion scheduled for 27 November continues to lations, mostly against opposition members, Aboulatta (Egypt), visited the DRC, Rwanda and be a deeply divisive issue in the Democratic civil society representatives and journalists. Uganda from 1 to 6 August. He was accompa- Republic of the Congo (DRC), as it is clear On 15 July, Council members issued a press nied by the experts from France, New Zealand and Spain, as well as from Egypt, and by two that it will be logistically impossible to hold statement stressing the crucial importance members of the Group of Experts assisting the the election on time, despite the fact that the of a peaceful and credible electoral cycle in Committee. On 8 September, Aboulatta briefed second and—according to the constitution— accordance with the constitution and express- the Committee members on his visit, sharing his last presidential term of President Joseph ing their concern at the increased restrictions view that it was well timed and had presented an Kabila ends on 19 December. On 17 Sep- on political activities in the DRC. opportunity to get a first-hand assessment from the concerned governments and other interlocu- tember, the Independent National Electoral On 23 June, the US imposed sanctions on tors on the effectiveness and impact of the sanc- Commission (CENI) petitioned the Con- Celestin Kanyama, police commissioner of tions regime. stitutional Court for a postponement of the Kinshasa, for alleged involvement in dozens presidential election without proposing a new of deaths and other actions that have created date. This was the first official recognition by a “climate of fear” over the past three years. Human Rights-Related Developments a DRC institution that the presidential elec- According to media reports, the EU is con- The Human Rights Council considered the report of the High Commissioner for Human Rights on tion will not be held in November. sidering sanctions on the DRC for the violent the human rights situation in the DRC during its A national dialogue on elections began suppression of opposition. 33rd session in September (A/HRC/33/36). The on 1 September with the assistance of Edem An anti-Kabila rally in Kinshasa organised report, covering June 2015 to May this year, con- Kodjo, the AU-appointed facilitator of the by the Rassemblement opposition deteriorat- cluded that the human rights situation was marked dialogue. Several of the main opposition ed into violent clashes between government by a gradual shrinkage of the democratic space, together with a steady increase in attacks on groups have chosen not to participate, as they forces and demonstrators on 19 and 20 Sep- fundamental freedoms. The intervention of state see the talks as a delaying tactic by Kabila to tember. Congolese officials have said that 32 agents in suppressing political opponents and remain in power. Those parties have formed people were killed, including four policemen, other civil society actors, including through the a coalition called “Rassemblement”, headed one of whom was burned alive. The opposi- excessive use of force against demonstrators, by Etienne Tshisekedi. tion claims that more than 50 people were arbitrary arrests and incommunicado detentions, is particularly worrying with the approach of an After setbacks in the talks regarding the killed. MONUSCO estimates that roughly important electoral period, the report said. The sequencing of the electoral cycle, the par- 180 people were arrested following these report recommended that the government guar- ticipating opposition parties and the gov- events. Council members issued a press state- antee the protection of the fundamental freedoms ernment announced on 14 September that ment on 21 September expressing concern of all persons, including political opponents, jour- they had agreed that the presidential, leg- over the violence and stressing the crucial nalists and other civil society actors; set up judicial islative, provincial and local polls would importance of peaceful, inclusive and timely mechanisms to combat impunity; and establish a national mechanism for the prevention of torture. be held simultaneously. If this proves to be elections in accordance with the constitution. UNJHRO documented 393 human rights vio- logistically impractical, the other polls may While attention is focused on the political lations throughout the DRC in August compared

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DRC Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2293 (23 June 2016) renewed the DRC sanctions regime and the mandate of the Group of Experts. S/RES/2277 (30 March 2016) renewed the mandate of MONUSCO for a year. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7332 (7 July 2016) was a briefing by Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson. Security Council Press Statements SC/12528 (21 September 2016) expressed concern over violent clashes between protestors and security forces that took place on 19 September. SC/12477 (16 August 2016) condemned the killing of at least 50 civilians on 13 August in the area of Rwangoma village, North Kivu Province, by suspected members of the Allied Democratic Forces. SC/12449 (15 July 2016) stressed the crucial importance of a peaceful and credible electoral cycle, in accordance with the constitution, and expressed the Council’s concern at increased restrictions on the political space in the DRC. Sanctions Committee Document SC/12516 (13 September 2016) was a press release concerning the 8 September briefing of the chair of the DRC Sanctions Committee to the Committee members on his 1-6 August visit to the DRC. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General Maman Sambo Sidikou (Niger) MONUSCO Force Commander Lieutenant General Derick Mbuyiselo Mgwebi (South Africa) MONUSCO Size, Composition and Cost of Mission Strength as of 31 August 2016 16,735 troops (including 478 military observers and 1,407 police), 816 interna- tional civilian personnel, 2,654 local civilian staff and 364 UN volunteers. Approved budget (1 July 2016-30 June 2017) $1.23 billion Mission duration July 2010 to present

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 Democratic Republic of the Congo (con’t)

to 383 in July, with state agents responsible for and credible elections are held as soon as the issue of elections. They fear potential more than 63 percent of the violations. possible; destabilisation in the country—and conse- • endorsing the provisional agreement quently in the Great Lakes region—if presi- Key Issues reached on a new electoral calendar and dential elections are not held as soon as is A key issue for the Council is the political ten- calling on all opposition parties to enter feasible. However, it may prove difficult sion surrounding the electoral calendar and immediately into the national dialogue to to find a common approach in the Coun- Kabila’s possible attempt to remain in power, reach consensus on a new and viable elec- cil to resolving the political stalemate and and finding a way forward that is accepted by toral calendar; and towards any solutions that are not agree- all stakeholders. • threatening to impose sanctions on actors able to all stakeholders in the DRC. Some The continued violence by rebel groups who destabilise the DRC by contribut- Council members view this issue mainly as against the population of North Kivu remains ing to electoral violence or incitement to an internal constitutional matter to be dealt a serious threat to peace and security. This violence. with through local institutions and through violence may worsen if political instability The Council (or a representative group of dialogue among political actors, such as the ensues in western DRC. Council members) could also consider visit- national dialogue led by the government. ing the country during the run-up to the elec- Other Council members are of the view that Options tions to take stock of the situation and deliver addressing actions that seem to have been The Council could adopt a resolution or pres- a strong political message to interlocutors. taken to override the constitutional order, idential statement: along with human rights abuses related to • condemning human rights abuses related Council Dynamics the political process, is integral to solving the to the pre-election developments and urg- Council members all have similar concerns crisis, including the grievances of those who ing the government to ensure that free, fair over the political tensions surrounding are boycotting the national dialogue.

Haiti

Expected Council Action new president before the end of former Pres- Council members on the electoral crisis in This month the Security Council is due to ident Michel Martelly’s term on 7 Febru- consultations. In a 13 May press statement, extend the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti ary, contained provisions for parliament to they expressed “deep disappointment” that (MINUSTAH) before the current mandate appoint an interim president to serve for a Haitian leaders had failed to meet the elec- expires on 15 October. Ahead of the renewal, maximum period of 120 days, with elections tion deadlines and called on them to ensure the Council is expected to convene a meeting preliminarily scheduled for 24 April. “the prompt return to constitutional order”. with troop-contributing countries (TCCs) Despite the appeals of the international On 6 June, the new provisional electoral and hold a debate with a briefing by Spe- community, elections were not held within council issued a revised calendar based on cial Representative Sandra Honoré, who will the agreed timeframe. Political divisions con- the recommendations of the electoral com- present the Secretary-General’s 31 August tinued to hamper implementation of the 5 mission. A repeat of the first round of the MINUSTAH report. The debate is likely to February agreement, and there were renewed presidential elections will be held on 9 Octo- take place after elections in Haiti, currently calls for the annulment of the 25 October ber, along with a partial re-run of the legis- scheduled for 9 October. 2015 first round of the presidential elections. lative elections and first-round elections for On 27 April, interim President Jocelerme Pri- one-third of the Senate, with a second round Key Recent Developments vert announced the establishment of a new scheduled for 8 January 2017, including pres- Following Honoré’s last briefing on 17 March, independent electoral evaluation and verifica- idential and senatorial run-offs, if required, Council members issued a press statement on tion commission with a mandate to assess the and single-run local elections. Final results of 18 March expressing “deep concern regard- 2015 elections. (An evaluation had already the presidential elections will be announced ing the continued suspension of electoral been carried out by a commission created by by 30 January 2017, with installation of a new rounds in Haiti”, and calling for the comple- Martelly in December 2015.) The commis- president expected to take place on 7 Febru- tion of the electoral cycle without further sion recommended in its 30 May final report ary 2017. delay. In particular, they urged all political that the first round of the presidential elec- In response, the international core group actors to adhere to the 5 February political tions should be repeated. on Haiti (Brazil, Canada, France, Spain, the accord and its agreed timelines. The accord, Meanwhile, on 12 May, at the request of US, the EU, the Organisation of Ameri- which aimed to safeguard “constitutional the US, Under-Secretary-General for Peace- can States [OAS] and the UN) said in a 6 continuity” following the failure to elect a keeping Operations Hervé Ladsous briefed June statement that it remained “deeply

UN DOCUMENTS ON HAITI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2243 (14 October 2015) renewed MINUSTAH’s mandate until 15 October 2016. Secretary-General’s Report S/2016/753 (31 August 2016) was the most recent MINUSTAH report. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7651 (17 March 2016) was the Council’s last debate on Haiti. Security Council Press Statements SC/12364 (13 May 2016) and SC/12290 (18 March 2016) were on Haiti’s electoral crisis.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Haiti (con’t) concerned” about the decision to re-run the the Secretary-General regretted the suffering only after the successful conclusion of the elections and urged all relevant actors “to the Haitian people had endured as a result of elections. It could also signal its intention to scrupulously respect” the electoral calendar. the cholera epidemic and that the UN had authorise a complete drawdown of the mili- The core group issued further statements on “a moral responsibility to the victims” with- tary contingent by a specific date, depending 15 June and 22 July, expressing concern that out explicitly attributing the epidemic to UN on developments on the ground. no measures had been taken to ensure con- peacekeepers. He announced that the UN stitutional continuity at the end of the 120- was working closely with member states to Council Dynamics day interim period, and calling on parliament develop a support package to families most Council members are clearly frustrated by to take action to avoid a constitutional vac- directly affected by cholera. The Secretary- the general lack of progress in Haiti and the uum and decide on provisional governance General made similar remarks in his open- inability of its leaders to make the compro- arrangements. ing speech to the General Assembly on 20 mises and decisions necessary for the country During a visit to Haiti from 30 June to 3 September. In a related development, a US to move forward. While they welcome the new July, Ladsous said Haiti’s political crisis was federal appellate court on 19 August upheld electoral calendar, there seems to be some generating increasing impatience within the an earlier ruling dismissing a lawsuit brought concern about the risk of further disruptions international community and stressed that it against the UN by representatives of cholera if the results of the first round are contested. was up to Haitians to overcome the political victims requesting compensation. With regard to MINUSTAH, at press stalemate. At the request of the US, Ladsous time negotiations on the mandate renewal briefed Council members in consultations Key Issues had only just begun in the Group of Friends upon his return to New York, on 7 July. A key issue for the Council in October is of Haiti, which comprises Argentina, Brazil, Confirming Ladsous’ assertion, the EU on the renewal of MINUSTAH’s mandate and Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Guate- 8 June announced the withdrawal of its elec- whether to endorse the Secretary-General’s mala, Peru, the US, Uruguay and Venezuela. toral observer mission from Haiti, while the recommendations. According to established practice, the US, as US said on 7 July that it would not provide Another issue is whether and how the the penholder on MINUSTAH, will prepare any additional election funding. (The cost is Council should express any views on the pre- a draft resolution for the Council on the basis estimated at $55 million.) However, the OAS ferred timelines for the deployment of the of the discussions in the Group of Friends. announced on 2 August that it would observe strategic assessment mission, the resumption At the Council level, most members seem the 9 October elections. of the withdrawal of the military contingent ready to endorse the Secretary-General’s rec- In his latest report, the Secretary-General and the reconfiguration of the UN presence. ommendations, but there are still important noted that Ladsous had concluded after his A further issue is the continued risk of differences in their positions. Some members, visit to Haiti that MINUSTAH’s presence instability and violence associated with the including France, the UK and Uruguay, have was required until the end of the electoral electoral process and possible further delays if said very clearly that election delays should cycle, underlining the crucial importance any of the candidates again refuses to accept not prevent discussions on the reconfigura- of the mission’s deterrent effect in the con- the results. tion of MINUSTAH from moving forward. text of continuing political uncertainty and (It seems that Uruguay, which is MINUS- a fragile security situation. The Secretary- Options TAH’s third-largest TCC with a military General therefore recommended the renewal The main option for the Council is to extend contingent of 248, earlier this year indicated of MINUSTAH’s mandate for another six MINUSTAH for six months with the same its intention to withdraw all of its troops by months in its current configuration. He pro- authorised strength, as recommended by the year’s end, although it has recently signalled posed to carry out a strategic assessment and Secretary-General, and call for the comple- that the troops may remain until April.) Other present recommendations to the Council on tion of the electoral process without further members, as well as some TCCs, remain cau- the future presence and role of the UN in Hai- delays. tious about decoupling the reconfiguration ti ahead of the next mandate renewal. Pro- In addition, the Council could either of MINUSTAH from the electoral process, vided the new electoral calendar is maintained, request the Secretary-General to deploy a warning against a premature drawdown and the assessment would be carried out after the strategic assessment mission by a specific stressing the importance of having a legiti- installation of a new president on 7 February. date, independently of the outcome of the mate government in place as an interlocutor On 19 August, the UN spokesman said elections, or ask that the mission be deployed for the strategic assessment mission.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 Syria

Expected Council Action of Homs began on 22 September. humanitarian convoy and a SARC warehouse Following the breakdown of the 9 Septem- A key component of the cessation of hos- were attacked by sustained airstrikes, result- ber cessation of hostilities agreement between tilities agreement was unfettered humanitar- ing in 20 deaths and the destruction of 18 Russia and the US, it remains unclear how ian access. The day after the cessation of hos- of the 31 convoy trucks. The UN described Council members will address the situa- tilities went into effect, UN aid convoys en the attack as a possible war crime, called for tion in Syria. At press time, Council mem- route to eastern Aleppo were held up in the an independent investigation and suspended bers expected to receive the regular monthly zone between the Turkish and Syrian borders. all aid convoys in Syria for several days. On briefings on the political, humanitarian and If allowed to proceed, the convoys would have 21 September, the US announced that it had chemical weapons tracks but could not rule been the first aid delivery to reach the opposi- reached the preliminary conclusion that Rus- out other activity, given the fluid nature of tion enclave since 7 July, when Syrian govern- sian jets carried out the attack. Russia has said the Syrian crisis. ment forces and allied militias—backed by neither it nor Syria carried out these airstrikes. On the chemical weapons track, the man- Russian air strikes—took control of Castello Despite this turn of events, neither Russia date of the UN-Organization for the Prohi- Road, severing the opposition’s final supply nor the US had yet to declare an end to their bition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) Joint route and setting the stage for a siege. efforts to shore up the cessation of hostili- Investigative Mechanism (JIM), the body Despite these challenges, Russia and the ties. On 20 September, US President Barack instructed to determine responsibility for the US were unwilling to declare the agreement Obama said in his General Assembly address use of chemical weapons in Syria, was extend- dead, though the US exhibited scepticism that “the hard work of diplomacy” had to be ed to 31 October. about whether the cessation of hostilities pursued in Syria. On the same day, the Inter- would last. In anticipation of possibly adopt- national Syria Support Group (ISSG), co- Key Recent Developments ing a resolution to endorse the cessation of chaired by Russia and the US, met in New Developments over the course of September hostilities, Russia and the US called for con- York and agreed that it was imperative to centred on the negotiation, agreement, initial sultations on 16 September to brief Coun- continue to pursue a nationwide cessation of implementation and rupturing of a renewed cil members on the content of their agree- hostilities. However, by 28 September the US cessation of hostilities agreement between ment, which had yet to be made public at the said it would take steps to suspend bilateral Russia and the US, followed by a massive mili- request of the US. However, the meeting was engagement with Russia on Syria unless Rus- tary escalation by the Syrian government and cancelled at the last minute as there was dis- sia moves to end the Aleppo assault. Russia against opposition-held eastern Aleppo. agreement about how much information to Before the Deir ez-Zor strikes and the On 9 September, Russia and the US share with other Council members. attack against the humanitarian convoy, a agreed to create the conditions necessary for The confidence in the agreement was fur- high-level meeting on Syria held on 21 Sep- the resumption of political talks through a ther eroded by US airstrikes on 17 September tember was viewed as an opportunity for the cessation of hostilities that would begin on 12 which killed Syrian military personnel and 19 Council to endorse the cessation of hostilities September and would include the grounding September airstrikes against a humanitarian agreement and provide momentum towards of Syrian air assets and humanitarian access, convoy, allegedly by Russia. the resumption of political talks. However, as in exchange for greater counter-terrorism On Sunday, 17 September, Russia the agreement collapsed, there was palpable cooperation against Al-Nusra Front, now requested emergency consultations regard- tension between Russia and the US displayed known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. ing the US-led coalition airstrikes in Deir at the Council’s high-level meeting, where While the cessation of hostilities largely ez-Zor. In comments to the media, Russia US Secretary of State John Kerry said that to held for almost a week, it was seriously chal- suggested that the US might have intention- restore credibility to the cessation of hostili- lenged on several fronts. ally attacked Syrian government targets. The ties agreement all aircraft flying in key areas On 12 September, the day the cessation of US stated that the strikes had been meant for should be grounded in order to de-escalate hostilities went into effect, President Bashar al ISIL targets, and that it had ceased attacks the situation and give a chance for humani- Assad said from Daraya, a suburb of Damas- once informed by Russia that the targets tarian assistance to flow unimpeded. There cus surrendered by the opposition in late were thought to be Syrian military. The US was a meeting of the ISSG the next day to August after years of a government imposed dismissed Russia’s call for consultations as a discuss this proposal, which by all accounts siege and aerial bombardment, that he was stunt to draw attention away from the Syrian was acrimonious, and agreement to ground “determined to retake every inch of Syria.” The regime’s actions. air assets could not be reached. surrender of Daraya has been characterised by On 19 September, Syria announced that Beginning on 21 September there has the opposition as a forced population transfer the cessation of hostilities had ended, and been some of the heaviest aerial bombard- disguised as a “local truce”. Another evacua- regime airstrikes against Aleppo, Deraa and ment by Russian and Syrian forces of east- tion, under almost identical circumstances, of Idlib were immediately resumed. On the same ern Aleppo since the Syrian crisis began, the opposition-held Al Waer neighbourhood day, a UN/Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) with media reports of the use of incendiary

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2268 (26 February 2016) endorsed the cessation of hostilities. S/RES/2254 (18 December 2015) was on a political solution to the Syrian crisis. S/RES/2235 (7 August 2015), S/RES/2209 (6 March 2015) and S/RES/2118 (27 September 2013) were on chemical weapons. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2016/796 (16 September 2016) was on the humanitarian situation. S/2016/748 (29 August 2016) was on chemical weapons. S/2016/738 (24 August 2016) was the JIM’s third report. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7780 (29 September 2016) was on the humanitarian situation. S/PV.7777 (25 September 2016) was an emergency meeting called by the P3 on the massive military escalation in Aleppo. S/PV.7774 (21 September 2016) was a high-level meeting on Syria. Security Council Letters S/2016/806 and S/2016/807 (21 September 2016) was an exchange of letters between the Secretary-General and the Security Council, respectively, to extend the mandate of the JIM until 31 October 2016.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Syria (con’t)

bombs, cluster bombs and bunker busters. civilian neighbourhoods with indiscriminate explo- P5, requiring only nine affirmative votes. A The pace of the strikes continued for days, sive weapons; and maintains tens of thousands of “Uniting for Peace” resolution by the General leading France, the UK and the US to call an detainees in inhuman conditions…The government, Assembly can confer legitimacy on interna- which is responsible for some of the gravest viola- emergency meeting of the Council on Sun- tions on record in the history of this Council, has tional collective action, but it would carry no day, 25 September, requesting that Special regularly sent notes verbales to my office report- binding obligation for such action. (Alterna- Envoy Staffan de Mistura brief on the mas- ing abuses by armed groups. But it offers no pos- tively, the General Assembly does not require sive military escalation against Aleppo. De sibility whatsoever for independent scrutiny.” a Security Council referral to adopt a “Unit- Mistura described the strikes against east- The Human Rights Council considered the ing for Peace” resolution.) latest report of the Independent International ern Aleppo as unprecedented and posing the Commission of Inquiry on Syria during its 33rd The Council has found a degree of agree- greatest threat to civilians. He also reported session in September (A/HRC/33/55). Among the ment on humanitarian, non-proliferation the use of hellfire rockets by armed opposi- report’s findings are that since late March there and counter-terrorism efforts, but has been tion groups. He added that the presence of Al has been a marked upsurge in the fighting, with unable to effectively stop or hold accountable Nusra in Aleppo was no justification for the indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks on a government responsible for indiscriminate civilian-inhabited areas, particularly through aerial heavy bombardment of densely populated bombardments. Recent indiscriminate attacks on attacks on civilians and widespread violations areas. He called on the Council to press for: civilians, including on medical workers and facili- of international humanitarian and human • a cessation of violence, particularly aerial ties, blocked humanitarian convoys, enforced rights law. In practice, the Council has lim- bombardment, and to protect civilians disappearances, summary executions and other ited its options to receiving more briefings or and civilian infrastructure, particularly in crimes committed by all parties to the conflict, findings which confirm what is already widely have left Syrians in a state of despair, with vio- Aleppo; known about the brutal tactics employed by lence reaching unprecedented levels in Aleppo. • weekly 48-hour pauses to allow for the The Commission reiterated its recommendation parties to the conflict. In this context options delivery of humanitarian aid; that the Security Council refer the situation to the for the Council include: • medical evacuations; ICC or an ad hoc tribunal. • responding to the Secretary-General’s call • a common understanding on a monitoring to establish an immediate, impartial and and enforcement mechanism for the ces- Key Issues independent investigation of the 19 Sep- sation of hostilities agreement; and With Syria in the fifth year of a war that has tember air strike on a UN/SARC humani- the resumption of political talks. exacted a death toll of 470,000, left 600,000 tarian convoy; At press time, OCHA head Stephen living under siege and displaced half of the • taking up de Mistura’s suggestion of O’Brien was set to brief the Council on 29 Syrian population, including 4.8 million ref- authorising a monitoring and enforcement September on the deteriorating humanitar- ugees, the essential issue for the Council is mechanism for the cessation of hostilities ian situation where the impact of the rup- to exert effective leadership in supporting a agreement (if it can be salvaged); and tured cessation of hostilities agreement and cessation of hostilities and efforts to reach a • inviting the Human Rights Council’s the subsequent severe escalation of fighting political solution. Commission of Inquiry on Syria or the in Aleppo will be a key focus. Regarding chemical weapons, the pre- High Commissioner for Human Rights to September consultations on the chemi- liminary conclusions of the JIM report and give periodic briefings to the Council. cal weapons track were cancelled. The JIM’s the determination by the OPCW’s Director- Regarding chemical weapons, if the Coun- third report concluded that of the nine cases in General that Syria’s declared chemical weap- cil is able to determine that Syria has violated investigated, the Syrian regime used chlorine ons arsenal cannot be considered accurate resolutions 2118, 2209 and 2235, it has the gas against its own population in two cases and and complete means that the Council is in option to pursue the “further measures” cit- that ISIL used mustard gas in one case. Three a position to consider whether Syria is in ed in all three resolutions, commonly under- cases required further investigation and there breach of resolutions 2118, 2209 and 2235. stood to be an implicit threat of sanctions. was insufficient evidence to make a determi- nation in the remaining three cases. The JIM’s Options Council Dynamics final report was expected to make a determi- While the Council has many tools at its dis- The quick collapse of the cessation of hostilities nation on the three cases requiring further posal—such as imposing an arms embargo agreement has led Council members to con- investigation and was to be submitted before or targeted sanctions, referring Syria to the clude that the chances for a near-term political the JIM’s mandate expired on 23 Septem- ICC or authorising a no-fly zone to deter solution have been severely diminished. ber. However, in an exchange of letters with Syria from using its aerial capacity—P5 divi- Many Council members are of the view the Secretary-General, the Council agreed to sions have made it impossible for the Council that the government’s offensive in eastern extend the report’s deadline to 21 October and to fulfil its role in maintaining international Aleppo confirms the regime’s preference for extend the JIM’s mandate to 31 October. peace and security in the case of Syria. prolonged armed conflict over a negotiated In this context, the Council could vote to settlement. There is also broad recognition Human Rights-Related Developments refer Syria to the General Assembly under that if fighting in Syria cannot be controlled, In his opening statement at the Human Rights the “Uniting for Peace” procedure, so that particularly in Aleppo, then it will be close Council’s 33rd session on 13 September, High the General Assembly might recommend col- to impossible for UN mediation between the Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein said Syria, “is a state led by a medical lective action, including sanctions and the use government and the opposition to resume. doctor and yet is believed to have gassed its of force. This would be a procedural vote and With Russia and the US publicly display- own people; has attacked hospitals and bombed therefore could not be vetoed by any of the ing the depth of their disagreement over Syria,

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 Syria (con’t) a few Council members think it might be a At press time, it was too early to gauge such a draft resolution were tabled for a vote good time for others to inject new thinking or whether there was broad support in the it would be vetoed by Russia. energy to help resolve the situation. However, Council for pursuing “further measures” Four of the P5 members (France, Russia, a majority of Council members believe that against Syria with the OPCW and JIM the UK and the US) are involved militarily in if Russia and the US cannot agree bi-laterally, reports pointing to non-compliance with the Syrian war to varying degrees. it will be almost impossible to achieve agree- resolutions 2118, 2209 and 2235. However, ment in a multi-lateral setting. most Council members feel certain that if

South Sudan

Expected Council Action A Council delegation visited South Sudan processes and access to populations in need”. In October, Council members are expected and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from 1 to 5 Sep- The government continues to have con- to hold consultations to consider the Secre- tember on a mission co-led by Ambassador cerns about the Force. Kiir told Council tary-General’s second monthly assessment Samantha Power of the US and Ambassador members on 4 September that he did not on the deployment and future requirements Fodé Seck of Senegal. While in South Sudan, want neighbouring states to participate in it. of the Regional Protection Force, as well as Council members met with high-level govern- Despite Kiir’s reservations, Ethiopia, Kenya obstacles to setting up the force and impedi- ment officials, including President Salva Kiir and Rwanda have been proposed as potential ments to the UN Mission in South Sudan and First Vice President Taban Deng Gai; civil troop contributors. Since the Council’s visit, (UNMISS) in carrying out its mandate. society representatives; religious leaders; and Michael Makuei, the Information Minister, has Members may also be interested in discuss- UNMISS staff. Council members also visited stipulated that South Sudan should be able to ing the findings of the independent special protection of civilians sites in Juba and in Wau, determine the number of troops deployed and investigation called for by the Secretary-Gen- Western Bahr el-Ghazal state, where they met the types of arms used by the Force. eral, “into the violence in Juba…in July 2016, with IDPs. In Addis Ababa, Council members Shortly after the Council left South Sudan, and the response of the UN Mission in South held meetings with President Hailemariam UNMISS received reports that some of the Sudan.” Desalegn of Ethiopia in his capacity as chair- civil society representatives who had met with The mandate of UNMISS expires on 15 man of the Intergovernmental Authority on Council members in Juba on 3 September December. Development (IGAD) and with the AU Peace had been intimidated and harassed by the and Security Council (PSC). government. UNMISS expressed its deep Key Recent Developments On 4 September, while in South Sudan, concern about these reports in an 8 Septem- The humanitarian and security situation in the Council agreed on a joint communi- ber press release. South Sudan remains dire. There are now 1.6 qué with the Transitional Government of On 17 August, the UN Stabilisation Mis- million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in National Unity. In the communiqué, the sion in the Democratic Republic of the Con- the country while more than 1 million people government consented to the deployment go (MONUSCO) extracted former First Vice have sought refuge in neighbouring countries of the Regional Protection Force as a part President Riek Machar, who had fled Juba in since the start of the civil war in December of UNMISS, agreeing that troop-contrib- the midst of the July fighting in the city, from 2013. Nearly 200,000 IDPs now live in protec- uting countries, UNMISS and the govern- Garamba National Park in the Democratic tion of civilians sites across the country because ment would continue to “work through the Republic of the Congo, together with ten asso- of the insecurity outside the sites. Fighting in modalities of deployment”. Previously, South ciates and his wife and son. From 24 August the Equatoria region has driven more than Sudan had only consented to the force “in to 5 September, approximately 300 addi- 103,000 South Sudanese into Uganda since principle”. The government further com- tional Machar supporters were also picked July. On 10 August, OCHA head Stephen mitted to allow UNMISS freedom of move- up by MONUSCO from the national park. O’Brien told the press that severe food insecu- ment in keeping with its mandate, and to According to the office of the spokesperson rity afflicts about 4.3 million South Sudanese create by the end of September a plan with for the Secretary-General, these individuals in a country of some 12 million people, where UNMISS “on concrete steps to remove were extracted “on humanitarian grounds... hyperinflation of more than 660 percent (as impediments on UNMISS’s ability to imple- [as] many were wounded, acutely malnour- of August) has significantly increased the cost ment its mandate…”. As for humanitarian ished or in another life-threatening condition”. of food. The deteriorating humanitarian situ- access, the communiqué said that the gov- Following a meeting in Khartoum from ation in the country was highlighted during a ernment would provide “assistance in elimi- 20-23 September, the opposition branch high-level meeting on South Sudan organised nating illegal checkpoints” and review with led by Machar issued resolutions calling for by OCHA on 22 September on the margins the UN humanitarian coordinator in South armed resistance against the Kiir government of the General Assembly. Sudan ways of “strengthening bureaucratic and calling on the “International Community

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2304 (12 August 2016) authorised the Regional Protection Force. Sanctions-Related Document S/2016/793 (19 September) was a Panel of Experts report on security threats to the government.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 15 South Sudan (con’t)

to declare the regime in Juba…a rogue gov- Bangura, the Special Representative on Sexual Options ernment and a spoiler to peace...”. Violence in Conflict, on sexual violence in South If the Secretary-General reports in his Lam Akol, the former Minister of Agri- Sudan. monthly assessment that the government has culture of the transitional government, not made progress in removing impediments announced in late September that he was Human Rights-Related Developments on the operations of UNMISS and humani- forming a rebel movement called the Nation- The three-person Commission on Human Rights tarian actors and refuses to cooperate with in South Sudan established by the Human Rights al Democratic Movement to oust Kiir’s gov- planning for the Regional Protection Force, Council (HRC) in March conducted its first visit to ernment. After he resigned from his post as the country from 8 to 15 September. The Com- options for the Council include: Minister of Agriculture on 1 August, he said mission travelled throughout the country and met • imposing an arms embargo on South “there is no more peace agreement to imple- with government officials, the judiciary, the legis- Sudan; and ment in Juba.” lative assembly, UN actors, civil society and IDPs • targeting key political figures responsible in UNMISS protection sites. At a press confer- On 14 September, Under-Secretary-Gen- for the ongoing violence with an assets ence in Juba on 15 September, the Commission eral for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Lad- expressed concern over the lack of progress on freeze and travel ban. sous briefed Council members on UNMISS the implementation of the peace agreement, the If the Secretary-General reports a signifi- in consultations. He said that the mission deplorable conditions under which IDPs live, the cant improvement in government coopera- continued to be hampered by freedom of diminishing space for journalists and civil society tion, the Council may consider adopting a members who are subject to intimidation and movement restrictions and that the deploy- statement recognising the government’s harassment, the lack of access for UNMISS and ment of the Regional Protection Force would humanitarian actors to reach the most vulnerable, efforts to implement commitments made in largely depend on the cooperation of the gov- the escalation of sexual violence against women the joint communiqué. ernment, echoing points made in the Secre- and girls and the ongoing impunity and lack of Another option is for the Council to tary-General’s confidential 8 September let- accountability for serious crimes and human engage with Special Representative of the ter to the Council. rights violations. The Commission proceeded to Secretary-General Ellen Margrethe Løj and Addis Ababa to meet with high-level AU officials, Following the meeting, Ambassador IGAD and the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation key IGAD and AU officials in an interac- Gerard van Bohemen of New Zealand, Coun- Commission and then to Uganda to interact with tive informal dialogue to discuss strategies cil President in September, read out press South Sudanese refugees. The Commission plans for convincing Kiir and Machar to use their elements on behalf of the members. Council to return to South Sudan later this year before influence to end the fighting. members said that they expected the govern- reporting to the HRC in March 2017. The informal interactive dialogue format ment to implement its commitments regard- could also be used by the Security Council ing the deployment of the Regional Protection Key Issues to meet with the HRC’s Commission on Force, freedom of movement of UNMISS and The key issue for the Council is to prevent Human Rights in South Sudan before the a clear improvement in humanitarian access. South Sudan from descending once again Commission’s next visit to the country, to The members indicated that if the Secretary- into full-blown civil war. The Council will share experiences and discuss ideas to more General (whose next report is expected in need to consider how it can best support effectively address the human rights situation early October) reports that political or opera- what remains of the 15 August 2015 peace in the country. tional obstacles are preventing UNMISS from agreement, and what additional steps should Regarding the special investigation on fulfilling its mandate or the deployment of the be taken for bringing peace to South Sudan. the July violence, the Council could con- Regional Protection Force, the Council would Another important issue is whether South sider requesting a briefing from Major Gen- “consider the appropriate next steps”. Mem- Sudan will make a good-faith effort to fulfil eral (retired) Patrick Cammaert, who is lead- bers further expressed deep concern about the commitments made in the 4 September ing the investigation, on how UNMISS can the targeting of civil society figures who had communiqué and what measures should be strengthen its operational procedures if faced met with the Council in Juba, called for the taken if it does not do so. with similar crises in the future. targeting to end and for those responsible to Council members—along with the UN be held accountable. Department of Peacekeeping Operations, the Council Dynamics AU and IGAD—are grappling with several Council members share concerns about vio- Sanctions-Related Developments fundamental issues related to the Regional lence against civilians, the growing humani- On 16 September, the Panel of Experts of the Protection Force, including the force’s com- tarian crisis and obstructions to the opera- 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee briefed position (both in terms of which states will tions of UNMISS and its humanitarian the Committee on the Panel’s recent report on security threats facing South Sudan’s transitional contribute to it and how it will be configured), partners in South Sudan. During the visiting government of national unity. The report states the timeline for its deployment, where the mission, members were unified in their mes- that the security threats facing South Sudan are force will be located and the need for heli- sage to the government that it must imple- internal in nature, stemming from the actions and copters to support its operations. ment resolution 2304, which authorised the policies of the Sudan People’s Liberation Move- Another key issue is what impact Machar Regional Protection Force; this view was ment/Army and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition. In the report, and his followers will have on the future of expressed even by China and Russia, who the panel underscored inter-ethnic violence and South Sudan, given their stated intention abstained on the resolution. impediments to the work of UNMISS and its to engage in armed conflict against the Kiir During the 14 September meeting, sev- humanitarian partners as key features of the con- government. eral Council members suggested that the flict. The Committee was also briefed by Zainab government needed more time to fulfil the

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 South Sudan (con’t) commitments made in the 4 September maintaining that the Council should imple- and how their positions might evolve if the communiqué. However, if the government’s ment this measure without waiting to see obstructive behavior on the part of the gov- cooperation does not improve by the time whether the government’s cooperation ernment continues. Angola, which in the past the Council receives the Secretary-General’s improves. While reluctant to support an arms has said that it would support an arms embar- report in October, the idea of an arms embar- embargo in the past, the US now says that it go, has recently expressed reservations about go will probably be discussed more seriously. will support one if South Sudan’s uncoop- this course of action. Views on a possible arms embargo vary erative behavior continues. Egypt and Russia The US is the penholder on South Sudan, widely. France, New Zealand, Spain and the have long been uncomfortable with the idea and Senegal chairs the South Sudan Sanc- UK appear to be the strongest proponents, of an arms embargo; it is unclear whether tions Committee.

Israel/Palestine

Expected Council Action that 65,000 people remained displaced and in the Occupied Territories, also known as In October, the Council is expected to hold more coordination was required to accelerate B’Tselem, asserted that Israeli investigations its regular quarterly open debate on the Mid- ongoing reconstruction. provided a whitewash mechanism to clear all dle East, with a focus on Israel/Palestine. Also Permanent Council member Russia implicated soldiers, commanders and poli- in October, an Arria-formula meeting will be announced on 8 September that Israeli and ticians of wrongdoing, and concluded that co-hosted by five Council members—Angola, Palestinian leaders have agreed “in principle” the ICC must intervene. The Israeli Defence Egypt, Malaysia, Senegal and Venezuela—on to meet in Moscow for talks that could revive Forces (IDF) countered that the report illegal Israeli settlements. the peace process after the collapse of US-led ignored the fact that the majority of air strikes negotiations in April 2014. No date for talks carried out by the IDF during the war did not Key Recent Developments has been announced. cause civilian casualties. The situation in Israel and Palestine remains On 8 September, a Palestinian high court On 14 September, Special Coordinator tense as the wave of violence that began a year in Ramallah postponed preparations for the Nickolay Mladenov welcomed an agreement ago continues. According to OCHA, attacks upcoming elections, originally set for 8 Octo- reached by Israeli and Palestinian authorities in the West Bank declined in the second quar- ber, because voting could not take place in to resolve the issue of outstanding electric- ter of 2016, but 65 Palestinians have been East Jerusalem, and because it had questions ity debts owed to Israel by the Palestinian killed so far this year, the majority of them about the legality of courts in Gaza after Authority (PA), putting an end to a 10-year in attacks or alleged attacks against Israelis. judges there disqualified five electoral lists debt crisis. The agreement includes the trans- OCHA has registered concern about possible on which Fatah candidates were running. A fer of authority to the Palestinian government excessive use of force and extrajudicial execu- Hamas spokesman in Gaza alleged that the for collecting payments for electricity distrib- tions by Israeli forces in such cases. At least Ramallah court decision was “a political one uted to Palestinian territory and will provide 200 Palestinians and 30 Israelis have been dictated to the court by Fatah and President an important increase in the Palestinian rev- killed since last fall. [Mahmoud] Abbas” to avoid defeat; Hanan enue base. Mladenov’s statement lauded the Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon briefed Ashrawi, a senior PLO official in the West deal as a significant step in line with the Quar- the Council on Israel/Palestine on 15 Sep- Bank, accused the court in Gaza of being tet’s recommendations calling on both sides tember, saying that leaders on both sides are politically motivated. The election would to take steps to strengthen Palestinian institu- failing to take the steps needed for peace and have been the first in ten years in which can- tions and develop a sustainable economy. warning that a two-state solution remains at didates from Hamas had run against Presi- On 1 September, the UN Conference on risk of being replaced by a one-state reality of dent Abbas’s Fatah in both Gaza and the West Trade and Development released a report perpetual violence and occupation. He noted Bank. It is seen as an important step towards on economic developments in the Occupied that in the preceding two weeks alone, plans inter-factional reconciliation. Palestinian Territories (OPT) which said that had been advanced for another 463 hous- Concerning the ICC’s inquiry into pos- Israel withheld Palestinian fiscal revenue for ing units in four settlements in Area C of the sible war crimes in the 2014 Gaza conflict, four months in 2015, donor aid declined occupied West Bank. Ban referred to a Gaza Israel announced on 2 September that it and Israeli settlements continued to expand under closure as a “ticking time bomb”, and will allow the Court to conduct its first vis- (UNCTAD/APP/2016/1*). According to the warned that instability and risk of escalation it, following ICC Chief Prosecutor Fatou report, if it were not for Israeli occupation, are ever-present due to an arms build-up and Bensouda’s formal request. The ICC must the economy of the OPT might be twice its militant activities by Hamas and other radical determine that Israel is unable or unwilling current size. The report said that the OPT groups. He acknowledged that some prog- to conduct the investigations itself before it remains a captive market for exports from ress has been made in reconstruction in the can begin proceedings. On 20 September, the Israel and that occupation has neutralised enclave since the 2014 ceasefire, but he noted Israeli Information Center for Human Rights the potential development impact of donor

UN DOCUMENTS ON ISRAEL/PALESTINE Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7772 (15 September 2016) was a briefing by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Israel/Palestine (con’t)

aid, noting that genuine reconstruction has sexual violence, including rape and incest, as well in attendance, before the end of the year. yet to take off in Gaza despite $3.5 billion in as killings in the name of ‘honour’”, the statement Among elected members, Egypt has voiced donor pledges. said. The special rapporteur will present a report its willingness to act as a broker between the during the Human Rights Council’s (HRC’s) 35th A 15 September report of the World Bank session in June 2017. The HRC held a general parties. However, it is unclear how this will said that less than half the money pledged debate on Agenda Item 7: The human rights situ- play out. by donors to rebuild the Gaza Strip after the ation in Palestine and other occupied Arab ter- Egypt is joined by several other elected 2014 war has been disbursed, contributing ritories, during its 33rd session in September, as members, including Angola, Malaysia, Sen- to the stagnation of the Palestinian economy. it does at every session. As in previous years, the egal and Venezuela, in pursuing the tools US boycotted the debate, along with Israel. The bank recommended that Israel allow available to the Council to address various more building in the West Bank and that it aspects of the conflict, as demonstrated by loosen its blockade of Gaza. It also called on Key Issues the Arria-formula meeting they organised for the Palestinian Authority to cut spending, The overarching issue is determining what this month on settlements, the second such especially by reducing pension payments. role the Council ought to play in encouraging meeting hosted by these countries this year. The US and Israel signed a landmark the resumption of direct negotiations between (On 6 May, they organised an Arria-formula agreement on 14 September stipulating that the parties to achieve a two-state solution. A meeting on the protection of the Palestinian the US will give Israel $38 billion in military related issue is how to urge the parties to civilian population in the OPT.) In an effort assistance over the next decade, the largest cease actions that hinder the resumption of to enhance the Council’s deliberations on the such aid package in US history. The deal negotiations, such as settlement-building, issue, these five countries have also requested guarantees annual payments of $3.3 billion acts of violence and other provocative acts, that OCHA brief the Council in the monthly in military financing and $500 million a year and to agree to new bilateral talks. Middle East meetings. An OCHA represen- for Israeli missile defence funding. tative briefed Council members alongside Options Mladenov in consultations following the Human Rights-Related Developments One option for the Council is to adopt a reso- Secretary-General’s 15 September briefing, The special rapporteur on violence against lution outlining parameters and a timeline for though it is unclear whether this format will women, Dubravka Šimonović, visited Israel and a final status agreement. become a regular feature as requested. Elect- the OPT from 12 to 22 September to examine the overall situation of violence against women Another option would be to take a piece- ed member New Zealand has also been vocal and girls and gather first-hand information from meal approach and pursue an outcome on about the need for the Council to pronounce women survivors of violence. In Israel, she vis- areas where agreement may be more like- itself on the conflict. ited Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Beer-Sheva, Haifa and ly among Council members, such as on Israel remains staunchly opposed to inter- Nazareth. In the OPT, she visited Ramallah, Beth- settlements. national initiatives on the issue, including lehem, Hebron, Jericho, East Jerusalem and Gaza. Šimonović noted in a 26 September end of mis- involvement of the Council, preferring direct sion statement that “specific groups of women Council and Wider Dynamics negotiations with the Palestinians, while the in Israel, including women from the Palestinian With US-led talks having failed more than PA favours international participation. Speak- minority (including Bedouin women), asylum- two years ago, two other P5 members are ing at the UN General Assembly in Septem- seekers, refugees, and women belonging to attempting to bring the parties back to the ber, Abbas said that Palestine will continue other minority communities face accrued and multiple forms of discrimination and heightened negotiating table. Russia’s announcement to seek a Council resolution on settlements. risk of violence”. While in the OPT, “many deeply that the parties have agreed to meet in Mos- It is generally accepted that the fate of any embedded forms of violence against women cow follows attempts by France to pursue Council outcome on Israel/Palestine lies ulti- are petrified in a context of prolonged occupa- an international conference, with the parties mately with the US. tion, including domestic violence, early marriages,

Yemen

Expected Council Action three months, between the Yemeni govern- the Houthis and GPC forces loyal to former In October, the Special Envoy for Yemen, ment and the Houthis, a Zaydi Shiite rebel president Ali Abdullah Saleh to withdraw Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, is expected to group, and their allies in the General People’s from cities under their control and surren- brief the Council, followed by consultations. Congress (GPC) ended on 6 August without der medium and heavy weapons within 45 any agreement. On 31 July, the Yemeni gov- days. After that, a unity government would Key Recent Developments ernment announced that it had accepted the be installed. Talks were extended for an addi- Peace talks in Kuwait, ongoing for more than Special Envoy’s proposal that would require tional week, but the Houthis and the GPC

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolution SC/RES/2216 (14 April 2015) established an arms embargo on the Houthis and forces loyal to former president Saleh. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2016/5 (25 April 2016) welcomed the launch of peace talks in Kuwait. Security Council Press Statement SC/12512 (8 September 2016) urged the parties to resume consultations and recommit to the cessation of hostilities. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7765 (31 August 2016) was a briefing by the Special Envoy for Yemen.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 Yemen (con’t)

rejected the proposal. to resume consultations and to recommit to and public and private infrastructure; the use of With the breakdown in talks, ground and respect the cessation of hostilities. landmines and cluster bombs; sniper attacks fighting and Saudi Arabia-led coalition air- Since then, there has been little progress. against civilians; deprivation of liberty; targeted killings; the recruitment and use of children in hos- strikes in Yemen intensified, causing increas- Houthi/GPC negotiators have been unable to tilities; and forced evictions and displacement. In ing civilian casualties and heavy damage to return to Yemen and remain in Oman as the several of the documented military attacks, the civilian infrastructure. A 13 August airstrike Saudi Arabia-led coalition, which has banned UN Human Rights Office was unable to identify on a school killed at least 10 children and commercial flights to and from Sana’a fol- the presence of possible military objectives. Its a 15 August airstrike on a Médecins San lowing the Kuwait talks, has refused to allow key recommendation reiterates the High Com- missioner’s call for an international, independent Frontiéres (MSF)-run hospital killed 19, their return. body to investigate alleged violations. In making prompting MSF to withdraw its staff in Yemen continues to endure a humani- the recommendation, the report noted the chal- Saada and Hajjah governorates. Airstrikes tarian crisis. More than 14 million people lenges faced by the Yemeni government’s com- in Beit Saadan on 10 September killed 30 require food aid, of which 7 million are suf- mission of inquiry that have not allowed it to people, and 26 people were killed in an air- fering from food insecurity. About 3.1 mil- implement its mandate in accordance with inter- national standards. strike in Hodeidah on 22 September. There lion Yemenis have been displaced, a 7 percent are assertions of increased rocket and mis- increase since April. On 30 August, OCHA sile attacks fired at Saudi Arabia, and the said that the death toll had surpassed 10,000. Key Issues Houthis have been reported as holding Compounding the situation is Yemen’s fis- How the Council can support efforts to re- and seizing additional territory in border cal crisis resulting from the near-depletion of establish a cessation of hostilities and advance regions of southern Saudi Arabia. the Central Bank of Yemen’s reserves, which peace talks, including overcoming differences Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula the government says the Houthis have used between the parties over the sequencing of (AQAP) and the Islamic State in Iraq and the to finance their war effort. The bank’s poten- security and political measures, is the key issue. Levant (ISIL) remain a threat, particularly tial insolvency threatens to further destabilise The humanitarian crisis and violations of in the south. On 29 August, ISIL claimed an the humanitarian situation if its ability to con- international humanitarian and human rights attack on a government military recruiting tinue to pay civil servants’ salaries and finance law also remain key issues. centre in Aden that killed at least 54. essential imports of food, fuel and medical The threat posed by AQAP and ISIL Following the Houthi and GPC agree- supplies is undermined. In August, Presi- amidst the security vacuum created by the ment on 28 July to create a ten-person dent Abdo Raboo Mansour Hadi requested conflict remains a major concern. Supreme Political Council (SPC) to govern that financial institutions no longer deal with Yemen, a parliamentary session was held on the Central Bank, and on 18 September, he Options 13 August in which legislators ratified the ordered that it be relocated to Aden. If progress emerges from peace talks, the arrangement. The Special Envoy has said Council may adopt a statement or resolution that establishing the SPC violates resolu- Sanctions-Related Developments backing the outcome. tion 2216, which demanded that all parties On 5 August the Yemen 2140 Sanctions Commit- If current political initiatives do not pro- tee met to consider the 27 July “midterm update” refrain from unilateral actions that under- duce results, the Council could reconsider a of its Panel of Experts. This report covered ongo- mine Yemen’s political transition. ing investigations into armed groups, implemen- humanitarian resolution. Elements for a res- To revive a political process, foreign min- tation of the arms embargo and financial sanc- olution were proposed by New Zealand last isters of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emir- tions, and allegations of violations of international March. Such a resolution could call on all par- ates (UAE), the UK and the US met with humanitarian and human rights law that the Panel ties to allow unhindered humanitarian access asserted have been committed by all sides. the Special Envoy on 25 August in Jeddah. and to ensure the safety of humanitarian per- This was followed by a meeting of the foreign sonnel, and demand that the parties adhere to ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council Human Rights-Related Developments international human rights and international (GCC), the UK and the US, together with In his opening statement at the Human Rights humanitarian law, including taking all precau- Council’s 33rd session in Geneva on 13 Septem- the Special Envoy. After this meeting, US tions to avoid civilian casualties. ber, High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Secretary of State John Kerry announced an Ra’ad Al Hussein noted that his office “continues agreement on a “renewed approach to nego- to enjoy broad access in Yemen…but … the nation- Council and Wider Dynamics tiations” that would address the security and al investigation effort has not been able to pro- Russia was critical of the Special Envoy’s political tracks “simultaneously”. The Spe- vide the impartial and wide-ranging inquiry that is recent proposal, considering it unrealistic to required by serious allegations of violations and cial Envoy said during his 31 August briefing expect the Houthis to turn over their arms abuse. I recommend a comprehensive inquiry by to the Security Council that this approach an international independent body”. and withdraw from territory before there was “would define a path for the rapid forma- The Human Rights Council considered the an agreement on their future political partici- tion of a government of national unity to be High Commissioner’s report on technical assis- pation. Other members appear to have had formed immediately following the withdrawal tance and capacity-building for Yemen in the similar concerns, which seemed to be taken field of human rights (A/HRC/33/38). The report and handover of weapons in Sana’a and some into account in the renewed approach for describes alleged violations and abuses of other vital areas”. Over a week after the 31 international human rights law and international talks announced by Kerry. August briefing, Council members issued a humanitarian law by all parties to the ongoing Reaching consensus on Council deci- press statement expressing continued support conflict, including attacks on residential areas, sions on Yemen has been difficult lately. for the Special Envoy and urging the parties marketplaces, medical and educational facilities Members failed to agree on press elements

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Yemen (con’t) following the 3 August consultations and appears to be due to political sensitivities The Council’s approach has, therefore, been required nine days to agree on their last stemming from the close relations of many to hope for progress in the political process press statement. Differences play out, in members, such as the UK and the US, with which it can then support through presiden- particular, between Egypt and Russia. Saudi Arabia. For this reason, the Council tial statements, gradually shifting the frame- Egypt champions the positions of the Yeme- remains unlikely to depart from resolution work away from resolution 2216. ni government and the coalition, of which it 2216 as a basis for resolving the conflict, The Group of 18 Ambassadors to Yemen, is a member, and has pushed back against despite widespread criticism of the resolu- which includes the P5 countries, Egypt, Japan criticism of the coalition, seeking stron- tion as one-sided and unrealistic in light of and the Gulf states, has pressured the sides to ger condemnation of the Houthis. Russia the situation on the ground. The demands of engage in negotiations. The so-called “Quad,” often seeks to present the perspective of the resolution 2216 that the Houthis withdraw comprising Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK Houthis and promote what it considers to and relinquish seized weapons have repre- and the US, emerged in July to address the be a more balanced Council approach. sented actions the Yemeni government says deadlock around the political process. Other members tend to be less vocal. This must be fulfilled before making concessions. The UK is the penholder on Yemen.

Women, Peace and Security

Expected Council Action 2015 Peace and Security Reviews greater Council oversight and coordination In late October, the Security Council will Some of the recommendations from these of the UN system’s implementation efforts. hold its annual debate on women, peace and reviews specific to the Security Council After the adoption of resolution 2242, security and the implementation of resolution include: Spain and the UK worked with other Coun- 1325, which acknowledged that conflict has • Establishing an informal expert group on cil members to establish what has become a differential impact on women and decided women, peace and security. known as the 2242 Informal Expert Group that addressing the needs, views and partici- • Inviting civil society to brief at country- on Women, Peace and Security, and became pation of half of society would provide a posi- specific Security Council meetings. its co-chairs. In practice, UN Women has tive peace dividend. The Executive Director • Enhancing capacity for gender analysis coordinated meetings of the Informal Expert of UN Women and two civil society represen- when mandating UN peace operations. Group by bringing together representatives tatives are expected to brief. The Secretary- • Encouraging increased and improved of multiple UN departments, UN agencies, General may also participate, though this was reporting by high-level leadership on wom- UN peace operations and civil society to brief not confirmed at press time. en, peace and security in country-specific Council members on gender information The Secretary-General’s annual report situations on the Council’s agenda, both in specific to a country situation on the Coun- on the implementation of resolution 1325 written reports and oral briefings. cil’s agenda. is due on 1 October. At press time, no out- • Expanding ownership of the “pen” on the Over the course of 2016, the 2242 Group come was expected. women, peace and security agenda within has met on four situations: Mali (29 Feb- the Council by including an elected mem- ruary), Iraq (29 April), Central African The Open Debate ber as a co-lead. Republic (15 June) and Afghanistan (13 It is expected that Russia, as president of • Strengthening the Council’s attention to July). At each meeting, Council experts the Council in October, will circulate a con- women, peace and security in the work of received briefings from senior leadership of cept note ahead of the debate asking mem- its sanctions committees. field missions, in each instance at the level ber states to focus their interventions on the The Council has begun to imple- of either Special Representative or Deputy progress achieved over the last year—the ment, to varying degrees, some of these Special Representative. period since gender recommendations were recommendations. Spain and the UK subsequently circulat- put forth in the three 2015 peace and secu- Resolution 2242, adopted on 13 Octo- ed a summary of each of the 2242 Group’s rity reviews on peace operations, peacebuild- ber 2015, expressed the Council’s inten- meetings as a letter of the Security Coun- ing and women, peace and security. All three tion to convene meetings of relevant Secu- cil. In addition, follow-up meetings on each reviews underlined the need for the increased rity Council experts as part of an Informal of the country situations have been sched- and enhanced participation of women in Expert Group to facilitate a more system- uled to assess progress and discuss options peace and security decision-making. atic approach to women, peace and security for the Security Council to enhance women, within the Council’s own work and to enable peace and security implementation in that

UN DOCUMENTS ON WOMEN, PEACE AND SECURITY Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2242 (13 October 2015) addressed women’s roles in countering violent extremism and terrorism and noted the need for improving the Council’s own working methods. S/RES/1325 (31 October 2000) was the first resolution on women, peace and security.Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7533 and Resumption 1 (13 and 14 October 2015) was the 2015 annual open debate on women and peace and security. Secretary-General’s Report S/2015/716 (17 September 2015) was the 2015 annual report on women, peace and security. Security Council Letters S/2016/683, S/2016/682, S/2016/673 and S/2016/672 (29 July 2016) were summaries of the 2242 Informal Expert Group on Women, Peace and Security meetings on, respectively, Iraq, Mali, Afghanistan and the Central African Republic. S/2016/35 (12 January 2016) was from Spain transmitting the ideas and proposals from participants at the 20 October 2015 open debate on women, peace and security.

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 Women, Peace and Security (con’t) particular context. The first follow-up meet- incorporated into mandates of peace opera- eventually need to be part of a political ing was on Mali on 14 September, with fol- tions, how gender is reported to the Council solution, as was done in the 1988 Afghani- low-up meetings planned on Iraq in October, and how the Council’s subsequent oversight stan sanctions regime. Central African Republic in November and role is enhanced if conflict gender analysis Finally, Council members could encour- Afghanistan in December. is presented. age the UN system and member states: It seems that the meetings of the 2242 • to better implement the zero-tolerance Group have enabled the Council to make Options policy on sexual exploitation and abuse in some headway with another recommenda- No outcome is anticipated. However, Coun- UN peace operations; and tion emanating from the 2015 peace and cil members can continue to close the gap in • to develop and implement a gender-sensi- security reviews, namely better information their everyday work between Council deci- tive humanitarian response to the needs of leading to better outcomes. Council mem- sions on women, peace and security and displaced women and girls. bers have observed improvement in the subsequent implementation on the ground— quality of gender information presented to particularly where there is a UN presence or Council Dynamics the Council during briefings, an increase in UN-led process. Between 2013 and 2015, the Council did the number of questions posed by Council In this regard, Council members during not adopt a resolution on women, peace members to Special Representatives regard- their interventions at the open debate could and security, leaving dynamics on this issue ing their mission’s implementation of women, commit to: largely untested for two years. However, peace and security obligations, and a greater • invite the head of UN Women to brief, in familiar divisions quickly re-emerged during willingness to include gender specific lan- particular when considering a mandate negotiations of resolution 2242 in October guage when renewing mandates of peace to support post-conflict structures that 2015, particularly around language related to operations. However, such improvement should ensure broad participation and the convening of an informal expert group; has largely been limited to the countries decision-making by women; incorporating this thematic agenda into the considered by the 2242 Group, rather than • invite women’s civil society to brief at Council’s sanctions regimes; describing an extending to broader improvement across all country-specific meetings of the Security improved gender architecture in the UN sys- country-specific situations considered by the Council; tem; and integrating the women, peace and Council. Additionally, some Council mem- • ensure that the women, peace and secu- security agenda into strategies to counter vio- bers report only incremental improvement rity agenda is integrated into the Coun- lent extremism and terrorism. in gender analysis in written reports by the cil’s thematic work on counter-terrorism, In subsequent negotiations in 2015 and Secretary-General on country-specific situa- as well as into country-specific situations 2016 on Council outcomes on human traf- tions, remarking that most women, peace and where groups such as Boko Haram and ficking, sexual exploitation and abuse, and on security reporting continues to be descriptive ISIL operate; and women’s role in conflict prevention in Africa, rather than analytical. • improve the quality of gender analysis by similar issues emerged. China and Russia, and The ownership of the “pen” on the women, calling for gender expertise in all UN-led in some instances Egypt, resisted many ele- peace and security agenda within the Council commissions of inquiry; transitional jus- ments that they interpreted as an expansion of has not been shared with an elected member tice mechanisms; mediation processes, the women, peace and security agenda or per- and remains with the UK, and with the US including in support of Special Repre- ceived as infringing on state sovereignty or the in relation to conflict-related sexual violence. sentatives, Special Envoys and mediation competencies of other parts of the UN system. However, Spain’s inclusion as co-chair of the teams; and peace operations, including by In this context, most Council members view 2242 Group has helped to expand elected the deployment of gender advisers and this October’s open debate as an opportunity members’ voices in the shaping of the wom- women protection advisers. to reflect on the advances and challenges that en, peace and security agenda in the Council. In order to strengthen the Council’s atten- have emerged since the adoption of 2242 and There have been few, if any, advances in tion to women, peace and security in the work to advocate ways to consolidate gains. Council implementing other Council-specific recom- of its sanctions committees, members could members are unanimous in their agreement mendations highlighted above. While the Spe- commit to: that no new resolution or presidential state- cial Representative on Sexual Violence in Con- • expand the designation criteria in rel- ment is required and that members need a flict has briefed numerous Security Council evant sanctions regimes where sexual respite from engaging in another potentially sanctions committees this year, this is in line and gender-based crimes and specific acrimonious round of negotiations. with previous practice, not a new development. attacks against women are persistently The UK is the penholder on women, perpetrated; peace and security in the Council. The US Key Issue • encourage and expand the existing prac- is the penholder on sexual violence issues. The key issue for the Council is how it will tice that expert groups assisting relevant Spain and the UK co-chair the 2242 Group. continue to take forward actionable recom- sanctions committees should include gen- It is anticipated that the co-chair of the 2242 mendations from the 2015 peace and secu- der expertise; and Group will continue to be an elected member rity reviews to achieve fuller implementation • include the respect for the rights of women in 2017 after Spain’s term on the Council of the women, peace and security agenda in as delisting criteria in sanctions regimes comes to an end on 31 December. its own work—in particular how gender is that target political spoilers who may

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Lebanon (1559)

Expected Council Action blast on a road in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley and humanitarian challenges. Recalling the In October, Council members expect to killed at least one person and wounded 11 July presidential statement, they expressed receive the semi-annual briefing from Spe- others, according to the Lebanese Red Cross. their deepening concern over the twenty-sev- cial Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen about the lat- On 9 September, several missiles were report- en-month vacancy in the presidency and dis- est report on the implementation of resolu- edly fired from the Syrian province of Homs cussed with Salam the question of the legisla- tion 1559. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 into Lebanon’s ‘Akkar District. No party tive elections to be held by May 2017. They urged the disarmament of all militias and the claimed responsibility. said they welcomed the intent of the govern- extension of government control over all Leb- Meanwhile, Lebanon continues to strug- ment of Lebanon to take steps to ensure that anese territory. gle with the burden of hosting more than one the elections are held on time. million Syrian refugees. Addressing a high- On 30 August, the Council adopted reso- Key Recent Developments level plenary meeting about large movements lution 2305, which renewed UNIFIL’s man- Lebanon continues to face challenges to its of refugees and migrants at the beginning of date for an additional year without any major stability and security, both internally and the 71st annual UN General Assembly on 19 changes and requested the Secretary-General along its borders with Syria, including from September, Prime Minister Tammam Salam to conduct a strategic review of UNIFIL by extremist groups and arms smugglers. The referred to the situation as an existential February 2017. Negotiations on the resolu- activities of Lebanese and non-Lebanese challenge and warned that Lebanon runs the tion’s text, drafted by France, were straight- militias along the border continue to pose a risk of a serious collapse. He appealed to the forward. A few Council members sought the threat to the stability of the region. UN to urgently put into motion a plan that addition of information on the scope and Notwithstanding the Lebanese govern- would involve drafting, within three months, objectives of the strategic review, expressing ment’s policy of staying out of the Syrian civil detailed arrangements for the safe return of concern that the review ought not to distract war, Lebanese militants continue to engage in Syrians from Lebanon to Syria when circum- the mission from its tasks. However, the final the conflict there in contravention of resolu- stances permit, and establishing burden-shar- text did not specify the scope of the review. tion 1559, and Hezbollah’s involvement con- ing quotas for countries in the region. tinues to have domestic and regional reper- Meanwhile, Lebanon is still unable to elect Key Issues cussions for Lebanon. a president to fill the vacancy left by Michel The main issue is that Hezbollah and oth- In a 16 August letter to the Council, Israel Sleiman, whose term ended on 24 May 2014. er non-state actors continue to maintain expressed deep concern about information On 22 July, the Council adopted a presiden- weaponry that directly hinders the govern- regarding “the direct involvement of Hezbol- tial statement stressing that the election of a ment’s exercise of full authority over its terri- lah in developing terrorist infrastructure in president, the formation of a unity govern- tory, poses a threat to Lebanon’s sovereignty the West Bank and Gaza”. The letter claimed ment and the election of a parliament by May and stability, and contravenes its obligations that several Palestinian suspects indicted for 2017 are critical to Lebanon’s stability and under resolutions 1559 and 1701, which involvement in terror attacks in Israel had ability to withstand regional challenges. The called for a cessation of hostilities between revealed that the terror plots were initiated, statement encouraged regional partners to Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. funded and carried out under direct instruc- engage constructively in resolving the presi- The ongoing crisis in Syria, with Hezbol- tions from Hezbollah. Israel claims that Hez- dential vacancy and preventing the spillover lah’s involvement on the side of the regime, bollah pursues such recruits through the use of regional crises into Lebanon. remains a major concern for several reasons, of social media, through operatives in Leba- On 15 September, the ambassadors of including the flow of arms through Syria to non, and through activities of local agents in France, China, Russia, the UK and the US Hezbollah. These circumstances have had the West Bank and Gaza. The letter called on and UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon a negative effect on Lebanon and continue the Security Council to formally designate Sigrid Kaag met with Prime Minister Salam to stall efforts to fully implement resolution Hezbollah as a terror organisation. and reaffirmed their strong support for the 1559. Lebanon’s burden in hosting more On 2 September, a Lebanese military continued stability and security of Leba- than one million refugees from Syria is also court magistrate indicted and issued arrest non. They commended the prime minister’s of deep concern. warrants for two Syrian intelligence officers efforts to govern under increasingly difficult Another issue is the continuing threat of a in connection with the twin bombing of circumstances and conveyed their ongoing resumption of hostilities between Hezbollah mosques in Tripoli in 2013 in which more support for his work. They called on all Leba- and Israel. than 40 people were killed and hundreds nese parties to work responsibly in the nation- Lebanon’s inability to elect a president— injured. The indictment accused the officers al interest, to enable government institutions which has paralysed the country’s parliament, of planning and overseeing the attacks. to function effectively, and to ensure that key rendering it incapable of passing critical Lebanon continues to struggle to main- decisions are taken at a time when Lebanon legislation and impairing Lebanon’s ability tain domestic security. On 31 August, a bomb is facing mounting security, economic, social to address its growing security, economic,

UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2305 (30 August 2016) renewed UNIFIL’s mandate for an additional year and requested the Secretary-General to conduct a strategic review of UNIFIL by February 2017. S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) urged the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon, disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, extension of the Lebanese government’s control over all Lebanese territory, and free and fair presidential elections. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2016/10 (22 July 2016) stressed the importance of Lebanon’s electing a president and a parliament by May 2017 in order to maintain stability. Secretary-General’s Report S/2016/366 (22 April 2016) was on the implementation of resolution 1559. Security Council Letter S/2016/717 (16 August 2016) was from Israel, accusing Hezbollah of developing a terrorist infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza.

22 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 Lenanon (1559) (con’t) social and humanitarian challenges—is of likely option is to merely receive the briefing the damaging effect of the Syrian conflict. utmost concern. and take no other action at this time. The Council has been united in repeatedly calling on all Lebanese parties to recommit Options Council Dynamics to Lebanon’s policy of dissociation and to Considering that the Council adopted a com- The Council continues to demonstrate unity cease any involvement in the Syrian crisis, prehensive presidential statement on 22 July in its support of Lebanon’s sovereignty, ter- while voicing concern about the vacancy in outlining the main issues on which they stand ritorial integrity and security, and to support the presidency. united in their support of Lebanon, the most Lebanon in its efforts to insulate itself from France is the penholder on Lebanon.

Western Sahara

Expected Council Action affirmed that it intends to proceed with the A further issue is that the civilian com- In October, the Council may receive the sec- construction of the road, which would link ponent of MINURSO has not yet been fully ond of this year’s semi-annual briefings on the Moroccan position at the berm with the reinstated, following Morocco’s expulsion of the situation in Western Sahara by Special Mauritanian border, and Polisario officials over 70 staffers in March. Representative and head of the UN Mission continue to object to the building of the road. for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MIN- In response, MINURSO has deployed Options URSO) Kim Bolduc and Personal Envoy 12 military observers stationed between the One option would be for the Council to Christopher Ross. Moroccan and Polisario positions. DPKO merely receive the briefing and continue to has noted that these observers are conducting monitor the situation. Key Recent Developments their tasks under hardship conditions, with no Another option would be to issue a state- Reports began emerging on 11 August that shelters or facilities available. Bolduc has con- ment urging the parties to de-escalate and Moroccan forces had repeatedly crossed the sulted Moroccan civilian authorities concern- withdraw from the buffer zone. berm into the Polisario-held part of Western ing establishing a small shelter for the observ- A further option would be to take the Sahara in the Al Guergerat zone near the Mau- ers, and was told to refer the question to the opportunity to address the wider conflict and ritanian border, in contravention of the cease- Royal Moroccan Army, who had previously reiterate the call made in resolution 2285 for fire agreement. The Royal Moroccan Army signalled their opposition to such a move. the parties to continue negotiations without initially told the UN that they were clearing On 9 September, the Polisario sent a let- preconditions with a view to achieving a polit- the area of drug trafficking and smuggling, but ter to the Council highlighting that the con- ical solution to provide for the self-determi- MINURSO later observed the building of a struction of a road in the buffer zone had been nation of the people of Western Sahara. road in the area. MINURSO had observed the previously attempted by Morocco in 2001 and presence of armed forces in the area, in breach 2002, as reflected in the reports of the Secre- Council Dynamics of Military Agreement No. 1 of the ceasefire. tary-General in those years, but that such work Deep divisions have rendered the Council The Secretariat has sent several notes to the had been suspended “at the request of MIN- largely impotent on Western Sahara through Council, depicting a situation of increasing URSO” on the basis that such activities could successive recent crises. Following Moroc- tensions and risk of confrontation. Accord- constitute a breach of the ceasefire. The let- co’s expulsion of MINURSO’s civilian com- ing to these notes, on 28 August the Polisario ter expressed surprise that MINURSO would ponent in March due to a dispute with the informed MINURSO that it would establish offer to complete construction of the road, stat- Secretary-General, the Council remained a checkpoint intended to stop Moroccan con- ing that “the UN seems to have been advised to mostly silent, due to the insistence of some struction work, and the mission informed the ignore its own decision on this issue”. members that support the Moroccan position Polisario that this too would constitute a viola- concerning Western Sahara. These members, tion of Military Agreement No. 1. The parties Key Issues who include France, Senegal and Spain, con- remain positioned 120 metres apart. The immediate issue is that given the tense tinue to advocate minimal involvement of the Bolduc has presented the parties with sev- situation in Al Guergarat, some resumption Council concerning the current crisis. Other eral proposals to resolve the crisis, including of hostilities remains a real possibility. members, including Angola, New Zealand, a freeze of engineering work and the com- The underlying issue is that the parties to Uruguay and Venezuela, have attempted to plete withdrawal of all armed elements, or a the conflict remain deadlocked and the politi- enhance the Council’s role through request- continuation of the construction work by a cal process has stalled, since the parties’ pro- ing ad hoc briefings and proposing outcomes; third party or by MINURSO. However, the posals for the basis of a political solution as however, they face strong opposition. parties have failed to agree, as Morocco has outlined in 2007 are mutually exclusive.

UN DOCUMENTS ON WESTERN SAHARA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2285 (29 April 2016) extended the mandate of MINURSO for an additional year. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2002/41, S/2001/613 and S/2001/398 (10 January 2002, 20 June 2001 and 24 April 2001) addressed Moroccan’s attempts to construct a road in the buffer zone in 2001 and 2002.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2016 securitycouncilreport.org 23 Notable Dates for October Security Council Report Staff Ian Martin REPORT DUE REPORTS FOR CONSIDERATION IN OCTOBER REQUESTING DOCUMENT Executive Director

Joanna Weschler 31 August SG report on MINUSTAH (Haiti) S/2016/753 S/RES/2243 Deputy Executive Director & Director of Research 27 September OPCW report on the implementation of resolution 2118 S/RES/2118 (Syria chemical weapons) Amanda Roberts Coordinating Editor & Senior Research Analyst 27 September SG report on UNAMID (Darfur) S/RES/2296 Shamala Kandiah Thompson What’s in Blue Editor & Senior Research 29 September SG report on MINUSMA (Mali) S/RES/2295 Analyst

30 September SG report on MONUSCO (DRC) S/RES/2277 Astrid Forberg Ryan Senior Research Analyst & Development Officer 30 September SG report on the Peace, Security and Cooperation S/RES/2277 Framework for the DRC Paul Romita Deputy Editor of What’s in Blue & Senior Research Analyst 1 October SG annual report on women, peace and security S/RES/1325 Victor Casanova Abos 1 October SG report on MINUSCA S/RES/2301 Research Analyst Dahlia Morched 19 October SG report on the humanitarian situation in Syria S/RES/2139 Research Analyst & Communications Coordinator

Vladimir Sesar 20 October SG report on the implementation of resolution 1559 S/RES/1559 Research Analyst (Lebanon) Eran Sthoeger Research Analyst 21 October Report of the UN-OPCW Joint Investigative Mechanism S/RES/2235 (Syria chemical weapons) S/2016/806 Benjamin Villanti S/2016/807 Research Analyst Robbin VanNewkirk EXPIRY MANDATE RELEVANT DOCUMENT Publications Coordinator

Lindiwe Knutson 9 October Authorisation for the interdiction of vessels used for S/RES/2240 Research Assistant migrant smuggling or human trafficking on the high seas off the coast of Libya Audrey Waysse Operations Manager

15 October MINUSTAH (Haiti) S/RES/2243 Maritza Tenerelli Administrative Assistant

Stevenson Swanson Copy Editor (Consultant)

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