Total Cases Nov 9, 2020

TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT

November 10, 2020 CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

1 TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES

ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS & QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 & INTERVENTIONS

ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION MAKING

2 INTERVENTIONS & OPENING TX 1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN 2. SOCIAL DISTANCING & FACE COVERINGS 3. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC 4. SCHOOL RESTRICTIONS 5. OPEN TX 3 (Businesses 75%, Bars 50%)

3 COASTAL BEND “COVID CONFIRMED” CASES New 24,774 TOTAL CASES OPN Rmt 50% OPN 23,252 RECOVERIES TX 1.5 ClassOutbreakF2F TX 3 Starting ACTIVE CASES INCREASING

786 ACTIVE CASES NUECESPERCENT COUNTY POSITIVE TESTS

All Nueces Testing *Local PHD % POS TESTS *Mobile Testing TOO HIGH *All Negative Results Known, Included 17% 15% 13% NUECES COUNTY TESTS PER DAY

All Nueces Testing NUMBER OF Local PHD TESTS NOT Mobile Testing DRIVING % POS

312 129 35 CASES INCREASING NUECES ACROSS OF COASTAL BEND

REFUGIOLIVE OAK JIM WELLS ARANSAS SAN PAT.

DUVAL BEE KLEBERG ARANSAS BROOKS

7 MODELING NEW CONFIRMED COVID CASES PER DAY

Open Open Open TX TX TX COASTAL BEND 3 1.5 3 TRANSMISSION RATE (Rt) 1.8 NEW COVID CASES PER DAY IN COASTAL BEND

Open Open Open Open Open TX TX TX TX TX IF Rt = 1.8, 3 1.5 3 1.5 3 OPEN TX 3 to 1.5 ROLL BACK PREDICTED 12/14 – 1/25 PROJECTED COVID INPATIENTS IN COASTAL BEND

Open Open Open Open Open TX TX TX TX TX 3 1.5 3 1.5 3 IF Rt = 1.8, PEAK PREDICTED 12/27 Stay Open Rmt NORTHWEST Home 1 2 3 TX 1.5 Class 2.5 3 LARGE OUTBREAK 1 PUBLIC HEALTH REGIONS EL PASO/ LUBBOCK 2/3 AMARILLO 4/5r 9/10 7 8 6/5s 11 FTW

LONGVIEW AUSTIN ICU STILL OVER NORMAL CAP COASTAL BEND ICU ICU PATIENTS LEVEL, MORE THAN BEFORE OUTBREAK 140

NON-COVID 117 PATIENT CENSUS PATIENT

COVID 23COVID COASTAL BEND COVID-19 FATALITIES * Death certificates 736* CB from past 14 days still being processed

FATALITIES LEVELING

Reporting by Date on Death Certificate

13 FATALITIES PER 10K: COASTAL BEND

FATALITIES PER CAPITA HIGHER OUTSIDE NUECES ON AVERAGE FATALITIES PER 10K FATALITIES ARANSAS BEE BROOKS DUVAL WELLSJIM KLEBURG L. OAK NUECES REFURIO SAN PAT.

14 CELL PHONES CAN BE USED TO ASSESS OUR BEHAVIORS, EVALUATE INTERVENTIONS

Foot Leaving Potential Traffic Home Encounters

15 In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker FOOT TRAFFIC AT HIGH SCHOOL SPORTS FIELDS

Cell Phone Foot Traffic Model • Visits to schools counted • Device near or in building

• safeGraph.com

OPN Rmt 50% OPN TX 1.5 Class F2F TX 3

16 ESSENTIAL & NON-ESSENTIAL GATHERINGS OPN Rmt 50% OPN TX 1.5 Class F2F TX 3 Cell Phone Foot Traffic Model • Visits to schools counted • Device near or in building

• GAMING safeGraph.com GROCERY MALLS HOME IMPR RESTAURANTS BARS

MOVIES

17 SUMMARY • Transmission rate (1.8), large outbreak predicted • New cases increasing locally • triple digits for 1st time in 70+ days • Hospitalizations predicted to begin increasing • More fatalities per capita outside Nueces • What can you do? • Face coverings + social distancing • Take out & curbside • Avoid gatherings indoors

18 Total Cases NovTotal 9, Cases 2020

TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT

November 10, 2020 CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

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