Total Cases Nov 9, 2020 TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT November 10, 2020 CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID 1 TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS & QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 & INTERVENTIONS ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION MAKING 2 INTERVENTIONS & OPENING TX 1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN 2. SOCIAL DISTANCING & FACE COVERINGS 3. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC 4. SCHOOL RESTRICTIONS 5. OPEN TX 3 (Businesses 75%, Bars 50%) 3 COASTAL BEND “COVID CONFIRMED” CASES New 24,774 TOTAL CASES OPN Rmt 50% OPN 23,252 RECOVERIES TX 1.5 ClassOutbreakF2F TX 3 Starting ACTIVE CASES INCREASING 786 ACTIVE CASES NUECESPERCENT COUNTY POSITIVE TESTS All Nueces Testing *Local PHD % POS TESTS *Mobile Testing TOO HIGH *All Negative Results Known, Included 17% 15% 13% NUECES COUNTY TESTS PER DAY All Nueces Testing NUMBER OF Local PHD TESTS NOT Mobile Testing DRIVING % POS 312 129 35 CASES INCREASING NUECES ACROSS OF COASTAL BEND REFUGIOLIVE OAK JIM WELLS ARANSAS SAN PAT. DUVAL BEE KLEBERG ARANSAS BROOKS 7 MODELING NEW CONFIRMED COVID CASES PER DAY Open Open Open TX TX TX COASTAL BEND 3 1.5 3 TRANSMISSION RATE (Rt) 1.8 NEW COVID CASES PER DAY IN COASTAL BEND Open Open Open Open Open TX TX TX TX TX IF Rt = 1.8, 3 1.5 3 1.5 3 OPEN TX 3 to 1.5 ROLL BACK PREDICTED 12/14 – 1/25 PROJECTED COVID INPATIENTS IN COASTAL BEND Open Open Open Open Open TX TX TX TX TX 3 1.5 3 1.5 3 IF Rt = 1.8, PEAK PREDICTED 12/27 Stay Open Rmt NORTHWEST TEXAS Home 1 2 3 TX 1.5 Class 2.5 3 LARGE OUTBREAK 1 PUBLIC HEALTH REGIONS EL PASO/ LUBBOCK 2/3 AMARILLO 4/5r 9/10 7 SOUTH TEXAS 8 6/5s 11 DALLAS SAN ANTONIO HOUSTON FTW LONGVIEW AUSTIN ICU STILL OVER NORMAL CAP COASTAL BEND ICU ICU PATIENTS LEVEL, MORE THAN BEFORE OUTBREAK 140 NON-COVID 117 PATIENT CENSUS PATIENT COVID 23COVID COASTAL BEND COVID-19 FATALITIES * Death certificates 736* CB from past 14 days still being processed FATALITIES LEVELING Reporting by Date on Death Certificate 13 FATALITIES PER 10K ARANSAS BEE BEND PER 10K: COASTAL FATALITIES BROOKS DUVAL JIM WELLS KLEBURG L. OAK NUECES REFURIO SAN PAT. ON AVERAGE OUTSIDE NUECES CAPITA FATALITIES HIGHER HIGHER PER PER 14 CELL PHONES CAN BE USED TO ASSESS OUR BEHAVIORS, EVALUATE INTERVENTIONS Foot Leaving Potential Traffic Home Encounters 15 In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker FOOT TRAFFIC AT HIGH SCHOOL SPORTS FIELDS Cell Phone Foot Traffic Model • Visits to schools counted • Device near or in building • safeGraph.com OPN Rmt 50% OPN TX 1.5 Class F2F TX 3 16 ESSENTIAL & NON-ESSENTIAL GATHERINGS OPN Rmt 50% OPN TX 1.5 Class F2F TX 3 Cell Phone Foot Traffic Model • Visits to schools counted • Device near or in building • GAMING safeGraph.com GROCERY MALLS HOME IMPR RESTAURANTS BARS MOVIES 17 SUMMARY • Transmission rate (1.8), large outbreak predicted • New cases increasing locally • triple digits for 1st time in 70+ days • Hospitalizations predicted to begin increasing • More fatalities per capita outside Nueces • What can you do? • Face coverings + social distancing • Take out & curbside • Avoid gatherings indoors 18 Total Cases NovTotal 9, Cases 2020 TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORT November 10, 2020 CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID 19.