1 Title: Mammalian tolerance to humans is predicted by body mass: evidence from long- 2 term archives 3 4 Running Head: Body mass predicts mammalian decline 5 6 Jennifer J. Crees1,2* 7 8 Samuel T. Turvey1 9 10 Robin Freeman1 11 12 Chris Carbone1 13 14 1Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, NW1 4RY, UK 15 2Department of Earth Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London, SW7 16 5BD, UK 17 18 *Email:
[email protected] 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 1 26 Abstract 27 Humans are implicated as a major driver of species extinctions from the Late Pleistocene to 28 the present. However, our predictive understanding of human-caused extinction remains poor 29 due to the restricted temporal and spatial scales at which this process is typically assessed, 30 and the risks of bias due to “extinction filters” resulting from a poor understanding of past 31 species declines. We develop a novel continent-wide dataset containing country-level last- 32 occurrence records for 30 European terrestrial mammals across the Holocene (c.11,500 years 33 to present), an epoch of relative climatic stability that captures major transitions in human 34 demography. We analyze regional extirpations against a high-resolution database of human 35 population density (HPD) estimates to identify species-specific tolerances to changing HPD 36 through the Holocene. Mammalian thresholds to HPD scale strongly with body mass, with 37 larger-bodied mammals experiencing regional population losses at lower HPDs than smaller- 38 bodied mammals. Our analysis enables us to identify levels of tolerance to HPD for different 39 species, and therefore has wide applicability for determining biotic vulnerability to human 40 impacts.