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CUWS Outreach Journal #1107 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal Issue No. 1107, 21 March 2014 Welcome to the CUWS Outreach Journal! As part of the CUWS’ mission to develop Air Force, DoD, and other USG leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions on unconventional weapons. These discussions include news articles, papers, and other information sources that address issues pertinent to the U.S. national security community. It is our hope that this information resources will help enhance the overall awareness of these important national security issues and lead to the further discussion of options for dealing with the potential use of unconventional weapons. The CUWS is seeking submissions for its annual General Charles A. Horner award, which honors the best original writing on issues relating to Air Force counter-WMD and nuclear enterprise operations. The deadline for submissions is March 31, 2014. For more information, please visit our web-site. The following news articles, papers, and other information sources do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the Air University, U.S. Air Force, or Department of Defense. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved. FEATURED ITEM: “Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons”. By Amy F. Woolf, Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy; January 3, 2014. Published by Congressional Research Service; 39 pages. http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/219954.pdf The FY2013 Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 4310, Section 1037) indicates that it is the sense of Congress that “the United States should pursue negotiations with the Russian Federation aimed at the reduction of Russian deployed and nondeployed nonstrategic nuclear forces.” The United States and Russia have not included limits on these weapons in past arms control agreements. Nevertheless, some analysts and Members of Congress have argued that disparities in the numbers of nonstrategic nuclear weapons may become more important as the United States and Russia reduce their numbers of deployed long-range, strategic nuclear weapons. Outreach Journal Feedback or sign-up request: [email protected] Return to Top U.S. ARMS CONTROL 1. Russian Inspectors to Check U.S. Nuclear Cuts amid Ukraine Crisis HOMELAND SECURITY/THE AMERICAS 1. Pentagon’s War Plans for Russia, China Exist for some Years 2. Inside the Ring: Pentagon Goes Hypersonic with Long-Range Rapid Attack Weapon 3. Infrared Technique Could Help Remotely Detect Dangerous Materials ASIA/PACIFIC 1. PLA's Hypersonic Vehicle Can Travel 10 Times the Speed of Sound: Report 2. Philippine Pledges Not to Allow US to Bring Nuclear Weapons into its Territory 3. Nonnuclear States to Call on China to Join U.S.-Russia Arms Talks 4. N.Korea Fires 25 Missiles into East Sea 5. Analysis Points to China's Work on New Anti-Satellite Weapon 6. N. Korea, China Discuss Ways to Resume Nuclear Talks: Beijing 7. No Imminent Nuclear, Missile Tests in N Korea: US Think-Tank EUROPE/RUSSIA 1. Scottish 'Yes' Vote 'Will Force Britain to Abandon Nuclear Weapons' Issue No.1107, 21 March 2014 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama 2. Putin Risks Restart of Nuclear Weapons Race 3. State TV Says Russia could Turn US to 'Radioactive Ash' 4. Moscow Opposed to NATO Presence on Historic Russian Territory 5. Anti-Missile Defense Shield in Romania would be Operational Next Year- USMDA 6. US Using Missile Defense System in Europe to Make Russia Change its Ukraine Policies 7. NATO Chief Says Ukraine Events May Affect European Tactical Nuclear Reductions 8. Up in Arms: Poland Accelerates Missile Defense Plan amid Ukraine Crisis MIDDLE EAST 1. Iranian Intelligence Thwarts Sabotage Attempt at Nuclear Site, Official Says 2. U.S. Official: Iran Pursuing Banned Items for Nuclear, Missile Work 3. Iran Does Not Expect Nuclear Agreement in Latest Round of Talks 4. Senators Urge Obama to Block Iran's Path to Nuclear Weapons 5. Netanyahu Orders IDF to Prepare for Possible Strike on Iran during 2014 6. Russia Warns West it May Change its Stance on Iran 7. President Rouhani: Final Deal with World Powers Possible within 6 Months 8. Almost Half of Syria's Chemical Weapons Removed – OPCW 9. Why is Iran Building a Dummy Replica of a U.S. Aircraft Carrier? 10. Iran Meeting Nuclear Commitments, but Key Plant Not Ready COMMENTARY 1. Ukraine and Nuclear Proliferation 2. Nuclear Lessons in Ukraine: Column 3. Ukraine Boosts Case for Nuclear Weapons, say Trident Supporters 4. Ukraine Fallout: Putin Hands the Pentagon a Rationale for New Nuclear Weapons 5. Trial Operational Deterrence The Washington Free Beacon – Washington, D.C. Russian Inspectors to Check U.S. Nuclear Cuts amid Ukraine Crisis New START treaty on-site inspection takes place this week By Bill Gertz March 17, 2014 Russian arms officials will arrive in the United States on Monday to conduct an inspection of U.S. strategic nuclear facilities amid heightened tensions over Moscow’s military incursion into Ukraine and a U.S. ultimatum to withdraw the forces. Additionally, a team of Russian arms inspectors are set to arrive in San Francisco for the treaty-permitted inspection that will take place days after Moscow threatened to cancel similar U.S. inspections in Russia. The go-ahead for the inspection, which is being kept officially secret under rules outlined in the 2010 New START treaty, reflects the administration’s national security priority of supporting arms control treaties despite recent disclosures that Russia has failed to comply with several nuclear and military accords. Russia’s state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported March 8 that the Defense Ministry is considering a ban on U.S. nuclear inspections under the New START treaty if the administration suspends military cooperation with Russia over the Ukraine invasion. A State Department spokesman had no immediate comment. Allowing the arms inspection also appears to undermine Secretary of State John Kerry’s ultimatum to Moscow last week that it will face sanctions if Russian troops are not pulled back from Crimea and Ukraine’s eastern borders. Issue No.1107, 21 March 2014 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies | Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 2 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Kerry told a Senate hearing Thursday that unless there is progress on the troop removal, “there will be a very serious series of steps on Monday.” Ukrainians in Crimea, where Russian troops were flown in over the past several weeks, voted Sunday on whether to align with Russia or remain an autonomous region under the Ukrainian government. On the threat to cancel U.S. inspections, a senior administration official told the Washington Free Beacon that the administration welcomed a recent statement by Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov that Moscow will abide by New START despite the Ukraine crisis. “Implementation of inspection activities under arms control agreements and confidence- and security-building mechanisms provides mutual predictability and promotes strategic stability,” the official said, adding that in the past, treaty implementation “has proceeded regardless of other political situations, and this practice should continue.” However, Thomas Moore, a former professional staff member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who specialized in arms treaties, said START inspections and all treaty compliance, while legally required, should be suspended due to the crisis. “There would be minimal harm to suspending New START until this all cools down, both inspections but more particularly any reductions,” Moore said in an email. “We don’t have to meet 1,550 deployed warheads until February 2018—long after Obama is gone and Putin may still be around.” The New START accord “should just be allowed to tick away into expiration, with forces, if not modern, then at least stable,” Moore said. “New START inspections haven’t been able to stop this crisis, and they won’t ever be able to do so.” Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, White House coordinator for defense policy, countering weapons of mass destruction, and arms control, told National Journal on Wednesday: “We see no reason that the tensions that exist over Ukraine should in any way obstruct the path toward fulfilling the commitments that we have made with the Russians to reduce nuclear weapons on both sides.” However, Sherwood-Randall said Russian military deployments to Crimea violate the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. That accord coaxed Ukraine into giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons in exchange for Moscow’s promise to respect Ukrainian sovereignty. “We are calling on Russia to abide by that commitment and the world is quite united in its expression of strong disapproval of the Russian current occupation of Crimea,” she said. State Department and White House officials declined to provide details on the locations to be visited by the Russian nuclear inspectors this week. The inspection is Russia’s second U.S. on-site inspection this year under New START. The 2010 treaty permits each country to conduct 18 on-site inspections per year, covering all three legs of the U.S. strategic triad—land-based missile bases, submarine-based missile facilities, and strategic bomber bases. A U.S. official familiar with the visit said the Russians will be escorted during the inspection by a group of U.S. officials and will be given unfettered access to treaty-covered nuclear sites.
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