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EM Real Estate EM Real Estate Global Equity Research United Arab Emirates REAL ESTATE EM Real Estate EM Real Estate When 'pipelines' become 'pipedreams' Initiation of Coverage Prestige projects are being consigned to history with the UAE real estate sector facing unheralded challenges. Solid pipelines are quickly becoming pipedreams with construction order books contracting sharply and development delays now commonplace. Speculators fuelled the market with ‘easy’ liquidity that has evaporated, just as developers commence deliveries that cannot be financed. The sector shakeout is likely to continue with direct markets possibly falling another 15%. We believe that the key theme for 2009 is sector consolidation, but initially in the private, rather than the public, arena. The sector is maturing at break-neck speed and we expect casualties. ! We initiate on the UAE real estate sector with a fundamentally cautious view. Real estate is capital consumptive and the market is currently capital constrained. Bridge finance is not an option if there are no end-users to take inventory or banks Chet Riley to fund it. +971 (0)4 428 4524 [email protected] NI plc, London ! Development delays are likely to dampen earnings. This and creating investment portfolios are likely to weaken revenue accounts. We think dividends are at risk – if not this year, then next, as cash constraints bite. ! We see the decline of occupancy rates and rents as affecting the carrying values of investment properties, just as companies are forced to take unsold stock into their portfolios. ! We expect average peak to trough falls of 40% in asset prices across the direct real estate sectors, against 25% average falls so far, but we believe that equities are pricing in more. We see absolute returns of c30% across our coverage Analyst Certification universe. I, Chet Riley, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Industry ! We initiate with a BUY recommendation on Emaar Properties. Report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers ! We are NEUTRAL on RAK Properties, Sorouh Real Estate and Aldar Properties. referred to in this Industry Report and (2) no part of my compensation ! We initiate with REDUCE recommendations on Deyaar Development and Union was, is or will be directly or Properties, a reflection of our current view on the Dubai market. indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Industry Report. ANY AUTHORS NAMED ON THIS REPORT ARE RESEARCH ANALYSTS UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED. February 17, 2009 PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 136 gl Nomura International plc http://www.nomura.com February 17, 2009 Table of Contents Investment thesis ................................................................................................ 3 Company recommendations ................................................................................ 8 Peer group comparison ..................................................................................... 10 Sector investment risks....................................................................................... 18 Sector valuation............................................................................................... 19 Equities priced the fall in the direct market ............................................................ 22 Stylistic Real Estate themes ................................................................................. 25 The macro view – A call on oil, liquidity and confidence......................................... 26 Financing and balance sheet liquidity .................................................................. 29 Next step – dividend cuts? ................................................................................ 32 Back through the roof – construction cost ‘inflation’ becomes ‘deflation’ ...................... 34 Regulation – from a standing start ....................................................................... 38 The direct real estate market – Cautious on most fronts ............................................ 40 Emaar Properties.............................................................................................. 44 Aldar Properties ............................................................................................... 57 Sorouh Real Estate ........................................................................................... 69 Deyaar Development ........................................................................................ 82 Union Properties .............................................................................................. 91 RAK Properties............................................................................................... 100 Appendix 1- Accounting standards – apples and oranges ..................................... 110 Appendix 2: Nomura valuation methodology...................................................... 114 Appendix 3: Direct market analysis ................................................................... 119 Appendix 4: Nomura’s property glossary ........................................................... 130 2 Nomura Equity Research February 17, 2009 Investment thesis "Let's face it, every Tom, Dick and Harry became a developer. Now is the time when you differentiate the men from the boys," Zabeel Investments’ Executive Chairman Mohammed Al Hashimi, Reuters Middle East Investment Summit, 6 November 2008. Sentimental headwinds prevail We are initiating on the UAE real estate sector with a fundamentally bearish view on the direct property market, but we believe that there are pockets of value in the listed sector. We regard the relatively ‘underdeveloped’ Abu Dhabi as having better prospects than the ‘overdeveloped’ Dubai, but there appears to be a wider, possibly unwarranted, disconnect from equity market valuations that are starting to appear oversold to us. Our clear preference is towards early cycle developers with committed sales and unencumbered balance sheets – or at least access to committed facilities – and low or no gearing. Most of the companies in our coverage universe tick most of the boxes, but this is more a call on sentiment than fundamental equity valuations. We believe that there has not been enough of a sector shake-out yet (at least publically) to sort the ‘men from the boys’ and sector consolidation appears inevitable, in our view. Being on the wrong side of that trade might see equity wiped out and being on the right side may result in equity dilution. We see value emerging… Real estate stock prices have fallen on average 80% over both the last 12 months and the … but too early to wade in last six months1, so while we are not positive on a macro level, we can see absolute value uplift of c30% at current price levels. The implied market risk is probably too high if we assume these entities were to continue to operate as independent going concerns. We think that we are near the floor in equity pricing, but stock prices will not improve until liquidity (or some form of direct government intervention) is force-fed into the system. The issue, we believe, is the lack of obvious catalysts to attract capital back into the sector. At 0.3x spot book, Emaar is a proven developer, diversified into international markets with strong demographic fundamentals and is the Dubai Government’s flagship (listed) developer, so there are enough positives to outweigh the negatives, in our view. Sorouh is our preferred Abu Dhabi based real estate company with what we perceive to be higher growth prospects, but at 1.0x spot book we regard it as still expensive relative to the sector (hence our Neutral stance). No more finance We view the sector as a homogenous basket. The market has relied too heavily on the (previously) easily ‘funded off plan’ sales market where speculators provided the working capital. But this passed the refinancing risk with each speculative ‘flip’, which has unwound sharply. Regionally, developers now face the situation where speculators can’t sell or can’t meet the final installments as developments complete. The end user market is being crimped by onerous (or no) bank lending terms, with banks trying to conserve already limited liquidity pools and reduce their sector exposure. 1 In comparison, the S&P UAE market has fallen by around 75% over the last 12 months and 70% in the last six months. Nomura Equity Research 3 February 17, 2009 The bank’s triple exposure The UAE mortgage market has historically been thin, but banks leveraged their lending The bank’s triple play loaded the bases loaded the bases exposure with a classic triple exposure (bridge financing the development start up, financing the contractor’s bond, and financing the end user), clipping the ticket at each pass of the finance chain. The ‘halcyon’ days are over and the banking system has choked the desperately needed liquidity with developers now forced to provide incentives to gap bridge finance loans to clear inventory backlogs. The public sector has the tacit support of federal governments and also the ability to tap equity capital markets if need be – the private sector does not and we expect distressed asset sales and defaults to dominate news flow through at least the first half of 2009. A new world order Companies are being forced to evolve rapidly. We see the warehousing of unsold inventory for delivery into the rental market as a greater, but now unavoidable, challenge. The occupier market is rapidly weakening and
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