Sub-county Population in County Durham Ref: C1 2017 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Strategic Partnership areas

Purpose of this brief 1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2017 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2018 on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the five strategic partnership areas to show long term sub-county trends and has been based upon Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) data released by ONS. 3. Supplementary reports for Clinical Commissioning areas and Area Action Partnership areas are also available on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by partnership area. 5. Appendix 2 contains details of long and medium population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the partnership areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2017 and he short term period of 2011 to 2017. Map 1: Strategic Partnership areas covering County Durham County Council

Key Messages 6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+31,200 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-1,200 people) during this period. 7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+10,800 people) along with negative natural change (-160 more births than deaths). 8. Between 2016 and 2017 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,100 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 550 more deaths than births. This has seen the county’s population increase by 0.3%/1,519 people. 9. All five partnership areas have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2017 with the largest growth in the Central Durham (12.7%) and North Durham (7.7%) areas. Growth has been relatively low in East Durham (1.1%) and The Dales (2.6%) areas, with East Durham having the lowest positive net migration of all five areas (+600 more people entering the area than moving out of the area) and The Dales having high negative natural change (2,100 more deaths than births). 10. Of the five areas only Central Durham has seen an increase in its 0 to 15 population which increased 6.5% (1,000 additional children) between 2001 and 2017. The other four areas have seen the number of children (aged 0 to 15) fall since 2001 with the largest percentage falls in East Durham (10.6% fall, 2,100 fewer children), and The Dales (800 fewer children, 14.2% fall). 11. However, since 2011 The Dales has seen a fall in this age group of 6.0%. 12. Most areas have seen an increases in their working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001 except for The Dales area which fell by 4.9% (1,000 fewer people), though there is evidence of a recent decline since 2011 in all areas except Central Durham. However The Dales partnership area now has fewer working age people that it did in 2001. 13. Four partnership areas (excluding East Durham) have seen large increases, of between 28% and 42% in the number of older people (aged 65 and over). The largest increase has been in The Dales (42.2% - partly due to smaller numbers, an increase from 6,200 in 2001 to 8,800 in 2017). There has been some growth in East Durham with an increase of 14.0% since 2001. 14. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with the largest in Central Durham (53.6%) and The Dales (45.7%).

Population change by Age Group Age group: Overall 15. All five partnership areas have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. A detailed year by year table is provided in Appendix 1. Figure 1: % change in total population since 2001 by partnership area.

115%

Central Durham

110% North Durham

County Durham

105% South Durham The Dales

100% East Durham % chnage from 2001 chnage 2001 % base from 2001 Base

95%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2001 16. The majority of growth has been in the Central and North Durham areas with increases of 12.7% and 7.7% respectively with East Durham showing the lowest increase of 1.1% over the same period with recent growth being more static since 2009. 17. The increases seen in the Central Durham area are in part due to the expansion of Durham University prior to the 2011 Census and further increases in student number since. 18. Since 2011 the Central Durham, North Durham and South Durham partnership areas have seen overall increases of 5.9%, 2.0% and 1.2% respectively while the East Durham and The Dales have little or no growth. The table below summarises some of these changes Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001/2011 and 2017

Population Number change % change from from 2001 2011 2017 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 Central Durham 100,161 106,627 112,886 12,725 6,259 12.7% 5.9% East Durham 93,990 95,111 95,009 1,019 -102 1.1% -0.1% North Durham 126,486 133,489 136,215 9,729 2,726 7.7% 2.0% South Durham 140,838 144,710 146,492 5,654 1,782 4.0% 1.2% The Dales 32,214 33,057 33,060 846 3 2.6% 0.0% County Durham 493,689 512,994 523,662 29,973 10,668 6.1% 2.1% North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,644,727 104,627 48,327 4.1% 1.9% England & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,744,595 6,384,595 2,573,695 12.2% 4.6% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 0 to 15 19. Of the five areas only Central Durham has seen an increase in its 0 to 15 population which has increased by 1.5% since 2001. The other four partnership areas have seen a decline in the number of children aged 0 to 15 since 2001, however this decline has seen a slight reversal between 2011 and 2017 in Easy Durham, North Durham and South Durham. The Dales has seen the largest decrease in this age group over these periods of 14.2% and 6.0% respectively, while East Durham a close second with a falls of 10.6% (from 2001) but as mall increase of 0.1% since 2011. Figure 2: % change since 2001 in the 0 to 15 age group by partnership area

105%

Central Durham 100% 2001 Base

North Durham 95% County Durham

South Durham

90% % chnage % 2001 from base East Durham

The Dales

85%

2015 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2001 20. Proportionally the 0 to 15 age group has fallen continually since 2001 across the county from 19.1% to 17.2% of the county total population. All five partnership areas have seen falls of between -1.5 and -2.8 percentage points in this age group since 2001. The table below summarises some of these changes. Table 2: Changes in the 0 to 15 age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2017 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2017 Central Durham 16,617 15,836 16,861 244 1,025 1.5% 6.5% 16.6% 14.9% East Durham 19,455 17,332 17,393 -2,062 61 -10.6% 0.4% 20.7% 18.3% North Durham 24,390 23,617 24,215 -175 598 -0.7% 2.5% 19.3% 17.8% South Durham 28,338 26,341 26,699 -1,639 358 -5.8% 1.4% 20.1% 18.2% The Dales 5,511 5,034 4,731 -780 -303 -14.2% -6.0% 17.1% 14.3% County Durham 94,311 88,160 89,899 -4,412 1,739 -4.7% 2.0% 19.1% 17.2% North East 500,900 462,200 471,260 -29,640 9,060 -5.9% 2.0% 19.7% 17.9% England & Wales 10,495,200 10,586,000 11,197,231 702,031 611,231 6.7% 5.8% 20.2% 19.2% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 16 to 64 21. Only The Dales area has seen a fall in working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001, a fall of 4.9%. Central Durham has had the largest increase in this age group (9.1%) and is in part due to the expansion of Durham University before the 2011 Census. 22. However, since 2011 only Central Durham has seen its working age population increase (2.7% increase) with the other four areas seeing falls of between 1.8% and 5.2%. Figure 3: % change since 2001 in the 16 to 64 age group by partnership area

110% Central Durham

North Durham

105% County Durham

East Durham

100% South Durham % chnage % 2001 from base 2001 Base

95% The Dales

2009 2010 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2001

23. Proportionally the 16 to 64 age group gradually increased between 2001 and 2008 to 65.2% from 64.3% of the county total population. Since 2008 this group has steadily fallen to 62.4% with a similar pattern seen across the five partnership areas. 24. However, even though the portion of the total population in this age group has fallen in the East Durham area since 2008, overall East Durham is the only area where there has been an increase in the number of working age people since 2001 (0.2%,) which in part maybe due to the general lack of population change in this area over the last six years. The table below summarises some of these changes. Table 3: Changes in the 16 to 64 working age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2017 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2017 Central Durham 68,535 72,773 74,753 6,218 1,980 9.1% 2.7% 68.4% 66.2% East Durham 58,500 60,943 59,332 832 -1,611 1.4% -2.6% 62.2% 62.4% North Durham 81,255 85,528 83,958 2,703 -1,570 3.3% -1.8% 64.2% 61.6% South Durham 88,794 92,017 89,360 566 -2,657 0.6% -2.9% 63.0% 61.0% The Dales 20,481 20,559 19,481 -1,000 -1,078 -4.9% -5.2% 63.6% 58.9% County Durham 317,565 331,820 326,884 9,319 -4,936 2.9% -1.5% 64.3% 62.4% North East 1,620,000 1,681,700 1,658,564 38,564 -23,136 2.4% -1.4% 63.8% 62.9% England & Wales 33,523,200 36,288,900 36,873,584 3,350,384 584,684 10.0% 1.6% 69.3% 63.2% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 65+ 25. As with the county and other areas across the country all five areas have seen the number of people aged 65 and over increase since 2001 with The Dales and Central Durham experiencing the largest growth (42.2% and 41.7% respectively). However, in The Dales this is in part due to smaller numbers and a tendency for higher proportions of older people to be found in more rural areas. Figure 4: % change since 2001 in the 65+ age group by partnership area

145% The Dales 140% 135% Central Durham 130% North Durham 125% County Durham 120%

115% South Durham 110% East Durham % chnage % 2001 from base 105% 100% 2001 Base

95%

2006 2017 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 26. Within East Durham this age group has shown a relatively small change (increase of 14.0%) and follows the pattern of slow population growth in this area since 2001. 27. Proportionally the 65+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 16.6% to 20.4% of the county total population. All five partnership areas have seen increases of between 2.2 and 7.4 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest increase of 7.4 percentage points seen in The Dales partnership area, increasing the proportion of the 65+ population in this area to 26.8% and the largest proportion of all five partnership areas. The table below summarises some of these changes. Table 4: Changes in the 65+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2017 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2017 Central Durham 15,009 18,018 21,272 6,263 3,254 41.7% 18.1% 15.0% 18.8% East Durham 16,035 16,836 18,284 2,249 1,448 14.0% 8.6% 17.1% 19.2% North Durham 20,841 24,344 28,042 7,201 3,698 34.6% 15.2% 16.5% 20.6% South Durham 23,706 26,352 30,433 6,727 4,081 28.4% 15.5% 16.8% 20.8% The Dales 6,222 7,464 8,848 2,626 1,384 42.2% 18.5% 19.3% 26.8% County Durham 81,813 93,014 106,879 25,066 13,865 30.6% 14.9% 16.6% 20.4% North East 419,200 452,600 514,903 95,703 62,303 22.8% 13.8% 16.5% 19.5% England & Wales 8,341,600 9,296,100 10,673,780 2,332,180 1,377,680 28.0% 14.8% 17.8% 18.3% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 85+ 28. Within the 85+ age group the percentage increases are more dramatic but are in part due to the smaller numbers involved. Central Durham has seen the largest increase with this age group growing by 53.6% since 2001 (from 1,614 people to 2,479). The Dales was second with a 45.7% increase, increasing the number of people in this age group in this area from 735 1071 people aged 85 an over. South Durham has the largest number across all five areas with 3,422 people. Figure 5: % change since 2001 in the 85+ age group by partnership area.

155% Central Durham 150% 145% South Durham 140% 135% County Durham 130% 125% The Dales 120% East Durham 115% 110% North Durham 105%

% chnage % 2001 from base 100% 2001 Base 95%

90%

2008 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

29. Proportionally the 85+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 1.7% to 2.3% of the county total population. All five partnership areas have seen increases of between 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest increase of 1.0 percentage points seen in The Dales partnership area, increasing the proportion in this area to 3.2% in 2017. The table below summarises these changes. Table 5: Changes in the 85+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2017 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2017 Central Durham 1,614 2,115 2,479 865 364 53.6% 17.2% 1.6% 2.2% East Durham 1,494 1,831 2,080 586 249 39.2% 13.6% 1.6% 2.2% North Durham 2,343 2,874 3,162 819 288 35.0% 10.0% 1.9% 2.3% South Durham 2,388 3,205 3,422 1,034 217 43.3% 6.8% 1.7% 2.3% The Dales 735 949 1,071 336 122 45.7% 12.9% 2.3% 3.2% County Durham 8,574 10,974 12,214 3,640 1,240 42.5% 11.3% 1.7% 2.3% North East 43,000 56,300 63,819 20,819 7,519 48.4% 13.4% 1.7% 2.4% England & Wales 1,017,500 1,268,600 1,433,633 416,133 165,033 40.9% 13.0% 2.4% 2.5% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Population change by Strategic Partnership Area 30. All five partnership areas have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2017 with the largest growth in the Central Durham (12.7%) and North Durham (7.7%) areas and the lowest growth in the East Durham (1.1%) area. 31. Central Durham: . Since 2001 there has been high population growth in this area of 12.7%/12,725 additional people and has mainly been driven by high positive net migration of 12,780 extra people, as there was a small negative net natural change (births minus deaths) of 55 people over this period, . Since 2011 this trend has continued with slightly positive natural change of 53 people. Positive net migration was high at 6,206 more people contributing to the 5.9%/6,259 growth since 2011, . In the last year of the estimates this area’s population increased by 1,137 people, all of which came through positive net migration as the net natural change was negative with 99 more deaths than births in the area. 32. East Durham: . Since 2001 there has been low population growth in this area of 1.1%/1,019 additional people and has been driven by both positive net migration of 594 extra people and positive natural change (births minus deaths) adding an extra 425 people, . Since 2011 this trend has changed with negative net migration with 102 people moving out of the area. Positive net migration was 422 people suggesting that most of the increase in natural change since 2001 has been in the last five years, . In the last year of the estimates this area’s population decreased by 120 people through a combination of negative net migration and negative net natural change (66 and 54 respectively). 33. North Durham: . Since 2001 there has been high population growth in this area of 7.7%/9,729 additional people and has mainly been driven by high positive net migration of 9,254 extra people with natural change (births minus deaths) contributing and additional 475 people, . Since 2011 this trend has continued with positive natural change of 414 people. Positive net migration was high at 2,312 more people contributing to the 2.0%/2,726 growth since 2011, . In the last year of the estimates this area’s population increased by 415 people, most of which came through positive net migration as there 93 more deaths registered than births in this area (negative net natural change) 34. South Durham: . Since 2001 there has been population growth in this area of 4.0%/5,654 additional people and has mainly been driven by high positive net migration of 5,642 extra people and very lower positive natural change (births minus deaths) of only 12 people, . Since 2011 this trend has continued with negative natural change of 96 fewer people. Positive net migration was high at 1,878 more people contributing to the 1.2%/1,782 growth since 2011, . In the last year of the estimates this area’s population increased by 74 people, which came through positive net migration of 215 people as there 141 more deaths registered than births in this area. 35. The Dales: . Since 2001 there has been low population growth in this area of 2.6%/846 additional people and has been driven by positive net migration of 2,906 extra people compensating for very high negative natural change (births minus deaths) of 2,060 more deaths than births in the area, . Since 2011 there was very little change in this area as positive net migration was slightly higher than the negative natural change in the area. Positive net migration was 958 people compared to 955 more deaths than births in this area, . In the last year of the estimates the trend from 2011 has continued with negative natural change at 168 more deaths than births and low positive net migration at 181. 36. The following charts and tables provide more detail. Figure 6a: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2001 to 2017 by Partnership Area

County Durham Net Central Durham Natural North Durham Change South Durham Migration East Durham

The Dales

0

5,000

-5,000

30,000 10,000 20,000

25,000 35,000 15,000 Figure 6b: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2011 to 2017 by Partnership Area

County Durham Net Central Durham Natural North Durham Change South Durham Migration The Dales

East Durham

2,000 6,000

2,000 6,000

-2,000

-2,000 10,000 10,000 Figure 6c: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2016 to 2017 by Partnership Area

County Durham Net Central Durham Natural North Durham Change South Durham Migration The Dales

East Durham

0

0

400 800

500

-400

-500

1,600 1,200

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 -1,000

Table 6a: Components of population change 2001 to 2017 by partnership area

Population change 2001 to 2017

% Net Natural Population 2001 2017 Births Deaths Migration* change Change Change

Central Durham 100,161 112,886 12.7% 16,255 16,310 -55 12,780 12,725

East Durham 93,990 95,009 1.1% 18,573 18,148 425 594 1,019

North Durham 126,486 136,215 7.7% 24,410 23,935 475 9,254 9,729

South Durham 140,838 146,492 4.0% 27,802 27,790 12 5,642 5,654

The Dales 32,214 33,060 2.6% 4,111 6,171 -2,060 2,906 846

County Durham 493,689 523,662 6.1% 91,151 92,354 -1,203 31,176 29,973

Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-year Population Estimates; ONS registered deaths and live births 2001 to 2017.

Table 6b: Components of population change 2011 to 2017 by partnership area

Population change 2001 to 2017 % Net Natural Population 2011 2017 Births Deaths Migration* change Change Change Central Durham 106,627 112,886 5.9% 7,001 6,948 53 6,206 6,259

East Durham 95,111 95,009 -0.1% 7,871 7,449 422 -524 -102

North Durham 133,489 136,215 2.0% 10,273 9,859 414 2,312 2,726

South Durham 144,710 146,492 1.2% 11,303 11,399 -96 1,878 1,782

The Dales 33,057 33,060 0.0% 1,555 2,510 -955 958 3

County Durham 512,994 523,662 2.1% 38,003 38,165 -162 10,830 10,668

Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-year Population Estimates; ONS registered deaths and live births 2011 to 2017.

Table 6c: Components of population change 2016 to 2017 by partnership area

Population change 2016 to 2017 % Net Natural Population 2016 2017 Births Deaths Migration* change Change Change Central Durham 111,749 112,886 1.0% 912 1,011 -99 1,236 1,137

East Durham 95,129 95,009 -0.1% 1,032 1,086 -54 -66 -120

North Durham 135,800 136,215 0.3% 1,363 1,456 -93 508 415

South Durham 146,418 146,492 0.1% 1,523 1,664 -141 215 74

The Dales 33,047 33,060 0.0% 203 371 -168 181 13

County Durham 522,143 523,662 0.3% 5,033 5,588 -555 2,074 1,519

Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-year Population Estimates; ONS registered deaths and live births 2016 to 2017. How does this topic link to our strategies and plans? The information in this factsheet is used to inform and support the strategies and plans published on the County Durham Partnership website. Other links: www.durhaminsight.info Durham Insight: Population and Deprivation Sub-county profiles (under ‘Area Reports’) Author: Research and Public Health Intelligence Team Approver: Research and Public Health Intelligence Team Published: November 2018 Review: November 2019 Data sources: http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/select/getdatasetbytheme.asp?theme=32 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimate s

Appendix 1

Table 1: Population change by partnership area - 2001 to 2017

Central East North South County Durham Durham Durham Durham The Dales Durham 2001 100,161 93,990 126,486 140,838 32,214 493,689 2002 99,775 93,466 127,103 140,679 32,515 493,538 2003 99,224 93,184 127,572 141,406 32,545 493,931 2004 98,630 93,145 128,273 142,398 32,701 495,147 2005 98,959 93,567 128,777 143,114 32,801 497,218 2006 100,269 93,785 129,342 143,074 32,878 499,348 2007 101,765 94,235 130,342 143,728 32,890 502,960 2008 102,804 94,755 131,091 144,023 32,944 505,617 2009 103,189 95,117 131,812 144,067 33,126 507,311 2010 105,416 95,054 132,614 144,314 33,230 510,628 2011 106,627 95,111 133,489 144,710 33,057 512,994 2012 107,272 95,123 134,033 144,837 33,083 514,348 2013 108,978 95,153 134,076 144,798 32,952 515,957 2014 109,550 95,075 134,811 145,197 33,140 517,773 2015 110,362 95,090 135,382 145,786 33,075 519,695 2016 111,749 95,129 135,800 146,418 33,047 522,143 2017 112,886 95,009 136,215 146,492 33,060 523,662 Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Appendix 2 Long Term (2001 to 2017) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level 1. At a more local level, just over two thirds (46) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2001 and 2017. 2. Less than half of MSOAs (30) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 46 had positive net migration. 3. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 3,706 additional people between 2001 and 2017, an increase of 41.1% from 2001. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 236 and high positive migration of people into the area of 3,470. 4. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 36.7%, (an increase of 3,723 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 4,674 more people moving into the area as there was high negative natural change over this period with 951 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas. 5. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004327) with a fall of 871 people and the Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central area (MSOA E02004328) which fell by 676 people during this period, falls of 12.9% and 8.4% respectively. 6. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (236 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (635 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central was due to high levels of net outward migration from the area (1,148 more people moving out of the area than in) while natural change added an additional 472 to its population. 7. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest fall in natural change between 2001 and 2017 with 951 more deaths than births. However, this fall was out-weighed by having the largest positive net migration figure of 4,674 out of all 66 MSOAs. 8. The area of Newton Aycliffe Central (MSOA E02004342) had the highest growth in natural change of 819 more births than deaths. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

Map 1: % change in total population since 2001 by MSOA

Figure 1: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2001 to 2017 by MSOA

Durham City Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross Leadgate North and Consett East Delves and Leadgate South St Helens Auckland and West Auckland Consett West and Castleside Murton South and South Hetton Byers Green and Spennymoor Craghead and South Stanley Seaham North and Seaton Gilesgate Moor Crook South and Willington North Crook North Howden-le-Wear and… Cassop and Coxhoe Bishop Auckland and South Church Stanley North and Kip Hill Shotton Colliery Framwellgate Moor and Pity Me Hutton Henry and Wingate Bowburn and Shincliffe Medomsley and Shotley Bishop Middleham and Sedgefield Sacriston and Waldridge Brasside and Newton Hall Bearpark and Witton Gilbert Barnard Castle and Startforth Sherburn and West Rainton Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West Net Natural Burnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell Change Dawdon and Seaham Harbour Annfield Plain North and Dipton South Migration Annfield Plain South and South Moor Stanhope and Wolsingham Midridge and Woodham Village Brandon Pelton and Grange Villa Chester-le-Street North Lanchester Chilton and Ferryhill Station Thornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll Newton Aycliffe Central Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean… Hamsterley and Staindrop Bowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale Coundon and Willington South Langley Park Cornsay and Satley Henknowle and Woodhouse Close Fishburn and Trimdons Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South Bournmoor and Great Lumley Chester-le-Street South Newton Aycliffe East Shildon Easington Colliery North Spennymoor North and Tudhoe Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside Beamish Ouston and Urpeth Easington Colliery South and Eden Hill Belmont and Carville Cornforth and Ferryhill Cockton Hill and Etherley Dene Passfield and Shotton Blackhalls Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central

Horden

0

0

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

4,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 5,000 6,000

-2,000 -1,000 -1,000 -2,000

Medium Term (2011 to 2017) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level 9. At a more local level, just under two thirds (41) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2011 and 2017. 10. Around half of MSOAs (32) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 44 had positive net migration. 11. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 1,833 additional people between 2011 and 2017, an increase of 18.0% from 2011. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 75 and high positive migration into the area of 1,758 more people moving into the area than leaving. 12. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 13.7%, (an increase of 1,666 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 2,026 more people moving into the area as there was negative natural change over this period with 360 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the continuing expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas. 13. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004342) with a fall of 500 people and Passfield and Shotton area (MSOA E02004329) which fell by 253 people during this period, falls of 7.8% and 3.7% respectively. 14. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (133 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (367 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Passfield and Shotton was also due to net outward migration from the area (173 more people moving out of the area than in) and negative natural change with 80 more deaths than births during this period. 15. The Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central (MSOA E02004328) area, which had the second highest fall in population between 2001 and 2017 (see above), showed no change between 2011 and 2017 with positive natural change of 178 more births than deaths and a net outward migration figure of 178 more people moving out of the area than in. 16. The area of Barnard Castle and Startforth (MSOA E02004347) had the highest fall in natural change between 2011 and 2017 with 411 more deaths than births. However, this fall was balanced out with a positive net migration figure of 554. 17. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest positive net migration of 2,026 more people moving into the area while Newton Aycliffe Central (MSOA E02004328) had the highest net outward migration figure of 538 more people leaving the area. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

Map 2: % change in total population since 2011 by MSOA

Figure 2: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2011 to 2017 by MSOA

Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross Durham City Consett West and Castleside Byers Green and Spennymoor Gilesgate Moor Craghead and South Stanley Bowburn and Shincliffe Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean… Shotton Colliery Brasside and Newton Hall Cassop and Coxhoe Delves and Leadgate South Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West St Helens Auckland and West Auckland Framwellgate Moor and Pity Me Pelton and Grange Villa Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell Medomsley and Shotley Sacriston and Waldridge Chilton and Ferryhill Station Dawdon and Seaham Harbour Murton South and South Hetton Bishop Auckland and South Church Coundon and Willington South Annfield Plain South and South Moor Barnard Castle and Startforth Stanley North and Kip Hill Crook South and Willington North Burnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie Annfield Plain North and Dipton South Lanchester Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South Crook North Howden-le-Wear and… Sherburn and West Rainton Langley Park Cornsay and Satley Net Natural Thornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll Change Midridge and Woodham Village Henknowle and Woodhouse Close Bearpark and Witton Gilbert Migration Seaham North and Seaton Hutton Henry and Wingate Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central Stanhope and Wolsingham Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside Bishop Middleham and Sedgefield Newton Aycliffe East Cockton Hill and Etherley Dene Hamsterley and Staindrop Fishburn and Trimdons Shildon Brandon Easington Colliery North Bowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale Chester-le-Street South Blackhalls Chester-le-Street North Beamish Ouston and Urpeth Cornforth and Ferryhill Belmont and Carville Leadgate North and Consett East Bournmoor and Great Lumley Easington Colliery South and Eden Hill Spennymoor North and Tudhoe Newton Aycliffe Central Passfield and Shotton

Horden

0

0

500

500

-500

-500

1,000 1,500 2,000

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

-1,000

-1,500 -1,000 -2,000