Sub-county Population in County Durham Ref: C1 2017 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Strategic Partnership areas Purpose of this brief 1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2017 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2018 on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the five strategic partnership areas to show long term sub-county trends and has been based upon Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) data released by ONS. 3. Supplementary reports for Clinical Commissioning areas and Area Action Partnership areas are also available on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by partnership area. 5. Appendix 2 contains details of long and medium population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the partnership areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2017 and he short term period of 2011 to 2017. Map 1: Strategic Partnership areas covering County Durham County Council Key Messages 6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+31,200 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-1,200 people) during this period. 7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+10,800 people) along with negative natural change (-160 more births than deaths). 8. Between 2016 and 2017 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,100 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 550 more deaths than births. This has seen the county’s population increase by 0.3%/1,519 people. 9. All five partnership areas have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2017 with the largest growth in the Central Durham (12.7%) and North Durham (7.7%) areas. Growth has been relatively low in East Durham (1.1%) and The Dales (2.6%) areas, with East Durham having the lowest positive net migration of all five areas (+600 more people entering the area than moving out of the area) and The Dales having high negative natural change (2,100 more deaths than births). 10. Of the five areas only Central Durham has seen an increase in its 0 to 15 population which increased 6.5% (1,000 additional children) between 2001 and 2017. The other four areas have seen the number of children (aged 0 to 15) fall since 2001 with the largest percentage falls in East Durham (10.6% fall, 2,100 fewer children), and The Dales (800 fewer children, 14.2% fall). 11. However, since 2011 The Dales has seen a fall in this age group of 6.0%. 12. Most areas have seen an increases in their working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001 except for The Dales area which fell by 4.9% (1,000 fewer people), though there is evidence of a recent decline since 2011 in all areas except Central Durham. However The Dales partnership area now has fewer working age people that it did in 2001. 13. Four partnership areas (excluding East Durham) have seen large increases, of between 28% and 42% in the number of older people (aged 65 and over). The largest increase has been in The Dales (42.2% - partly due to smaller numbers, an increase from 6,200 in 2001 to 8,800 in 2017). There has been some growth in East Durham with an increase of 14.0% since 2001. 14. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with the largest in Central Durham (53.6%) and The Dales (45.7%). Population change by Age Group Age group: Overall 15. All five partnership areas have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. A detailed year by year table is provided in Appendix 1. Figure 1: % change in total population since 2001 by partnership area. 115% Central Durham 110% North Durham County Durham 105% South Durham The Dales 100% East Durham % chnage 2001 % base from 2001 Base 95% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2001 16. The majority of growth has been in the Central and North Durham areas with increases of 12.7% and 7.7% respectively with East Durham showing the lowest increase of 1.1% over the same period with recent growth being more static since 2009. 17. The increases seen in the Central Durham area are in part due to the expansion of Durham University prior to the 2011 Census and further increases in student number since. 18. Since 2011 the Central Durham, North Durham and South Durham partnership areas have seen overall increases of 5.9%, 2.0% and 1.2% respectively while the East Durham and The Dales have little or no growth. The table below summarises some of these changes Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001/2011 and 2017 Population Number change % change from from 2001 2011 2017 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 Central Durham 100,161 106,627 112,886 12,725 6,259 12.7% 5.9% East Durham 93,990 95,111 95,009 1,019 -102 1.1% -0.1% North Durham 126,486 133,489 136,215 9,729 2,726 7.7% 2.0% South Durham 140,838 144,710 146,492 5,654 1,782 4.0% 1.2% The Dales 32,214 33,057 33,060 846 3 2.6% 0.0% County Durham 493,689 512,994 523,662 29,973 10,668 6.1% 2.1% North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,644,727 104,627 48,327 4.1% 1.9% England & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,744,595 6,384,595 2,573,695 12.2% 4.6% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates Age group: 0 to 15 19. Of the five areas only Central Durham has seen an increase in its 0 to 15 population which has increased by 1.5% since 2001. The other four partnership areas have seen a decline in the number of children aged 0 to 15 since 2001, however this decline has seen a slight reversal between 2011 and 2017 in Easy Durham, North Durham and South Durham. The Dales has seen the largest decrease in this age group over these periods of 14.2% and 6.0% respectively, while East Durham a close second with a falls of 10.6% (from 2001) but as mall increase of 0.1% since 2011. Figure 2: % change since 2001 in the 0 to 15 age group by partnership area 105% Central Durham 100% 2001 Base North Durham 95% County Durham South Durham 90% % chnage% 2001 from base East Durham The Dales 85% 2015 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2001 20. Proportionally the 0 to 15 age group has fallen continually since 2001 across the county from 19.1% to 17.2% of the county total population. All five partnership areas have seen falls of between -1.5 and -2.8 percentage points in this age group since 2001. The table below summarises some of these changes. Table 2: Changes in the 0 to 15 age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017 Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2017 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2017 Central Durham 16,617 15,836 16,861 244 1,025 1.5% 6.5% 16.6% 14.9% East Durham 19,455 17,332 17,393 -2,062 61 -10.6% 0.4% 20.7% 18.3% North Durham 24,390 23,617 24,215 -175 598 -0.7% 2.5% 19.3% 17.8% South Durham 28,338 26,341 26,699 -1,639 358 -5.8% 1.4% 20.1% 18.2% The Dales 5,511 5,034 4,731 -780 -303 -14.2% -6.0% 17.1% 14.3% County Durham 94,311 88,160 89,899 -4,412 1,739 -4.7% 2.0% 19.1% 17.2% North East 500,900 462,200 471,260 -29,640 9,060 -5.9% 2.0% 19.7% 17.9% England & Wales 10,495,200 10,586,000 11,197,231 702,031 611,231 6.7% 5.8% 20.2% 19.2% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates Age group: 16 to 64 21. Only The Dales area has seen a fall in working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001, a fall of 4.9%. Central Durham has had the largest increase in this age group (9.1%) and is in part due to the expansion of Durham University before the 2011 Census. 22. However, since 2011 only Central Durham has seen its working age population increase (2.7% increase) with the other four areas seeing falls of between 1.8% and 5.2%. Figure 3: % change since 2001 in the 16 to 64 age group by partnership area 110% Central Durham North Durham 105% County Durham East Durham 100% South Durham % chnage% 2001 from base 2001 Base 95% The Dales 2009 2010 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2001 23.