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Is Building Construction Approaching the Threshold of Becoming Is Building Construction Approaching the Threshold of Becoming Unsustainable? A System Theoretic Exploration towards a Post- Forrester Model for Taming Unsustainable Exponentialoids A Dissertation Presented to The Academic Faculty By José L. Fernández-Solís In partial fulfilment of the Requirements for a Degree Doctor in Philosophy in the College of Architecture Georgia Institute of Technology December 2006 © 2006 Copyright by José L. Fernández-Solís i Is Building Construction Approaching the Threshold of Becoming Unsustainable? A System Theoretic Exploration towards a Post- Forrester Model for Taming Unsustainable Exponentialoids Approved by: Dr. Linda Thomas Mobley Professor Godfried Augenbroe College of Architecture College of Architecture Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. Thomas L. Galloway Dr. Lauri Koskela College of Architecture Built and Human Environment Georgia Institute of Technology University of Salford, UK Mr. Brian Bowen Executive in Residence College of Architecture Georgia Institute of Technology Date Approved: ii Human beings become builders by building.” Aristotle, “Nicomachean Ethics,” 2.1.1103a35 Technology is a neutral means or human activity – a kind of truth revealing – that sets up and challenges nature to yield (release and transform) a kind of energy that can, at will, be independently stored, and transmitted (distributed).” “The essence of modern technology starts human beings upon the way of THAT revealing through which reality everywhere, more or less distinctly, becomes resource.” Adapted from M. Heidegger, 1954, “The Question Concerning Technology and Other Essays,” “The bet or wager of the century is not some unqualified conquest of nature but the replacement of the natural milieu with the technical milieu. The modern gamble is whether this new milieu in contrast with the natural milieu will be better or even possible.” J. Ellul, 1954 “Technology or the bet of the Century” “Perhaps the development of technology, like the development of science, should be viewed as proceeding within the framework of paradigms.” T. Kuhn, 1976, “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.” “The solution to the problems of technology is not less but more and more comprehensive technology.” Common phrase, C. Mitcham, 1994, “Thinking through technology: The path between Engineering and Philosophy.” “Situations in life often permit no delay; and when we cannot determine the method which is certainly best, we must follow the one which is probably the best…if the method selected is not indeed a good one, at last the reasons for selecting it are excellent.” Descartes 1989, quoted by Koen, 2003, “Discussion of THE method,” all-is-heuristics. iii PREFACE Adapting the words of Koen (2003), sustainability is an issue touching the larger issue of survival. “Considering the 100 Million species that are estimated to have become extinct since life first appeared on this planet, Homo-sapiens is a three hundred thousand year experiment.” Overpopulation, resource consumption and pollution are a short term challenge and a long term major problem with possible catastrophic consequences. As a general rule, no argument is improved by exaggeration because the reader/listener immediately becomes suspicious of what is to come. Therefore the study is limited at the front-end of the scope to short term challenges, keeping in mind the possible consequences of our life-styles in thousands of years to come. In general a dissertation is focused and narrow according to selected criteria and assumptions. The intent of this dissertation is not to exclude other areas, sectors, industries that are related and can benefit from the insights of the dissertation. Civil, heavy industrial and other types of construction are sectors that contribute to the problem and therefore must be part of any solution. Future studies may consider the subject of analyzing and comparing the similarities and differences of the contributions of the different sectors using this dissertation’s findings and methodology as spring board. Familiarity by the author of the building industry, limited time and resources, availability of extensive published research information and data that has a fit with the nature of the problems as framed by the dissertation are assumptions and limiting criteria on the scope of the work selected. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am fortunate and grateful to have been selected by Dr. Roozbeh Kangari to start the Building Construction Summer Study Abroad Program in Paris by teaching Construction Issues and Initiatives and a Lab for Sustainable Design which provided the opportunity to research, test and present the findings to the attending students. A special word of thanks to the thirty-eight Building Construction students in the Study Abroad Programs (2004, 2005, and 2006) in Paris: By allowing me to test the dissertation heuristics I was able to see the puzzle more clearly. Some of their assignments were used to verify and confirm my own findings; A few graphs were an improvement on mine, and if used, credit is noted in this dissertation. I am encouraged by their ability to grasp the importance of the issues and hope that by the confluence of the Paris milieu, rose-garden experience, subject matter and further curiosity, some may end up doing graduate studies research in the industry or academia. It will be a pleasure to collaborate with them in their Ph. D. program! Professor Augenbroe provided the social, academic and scientific milieu, especially in times of trouble as well as the tradition-bound technical standards-of-success and failure so essential when undertaking an innovative puzzle solving research. He has been a link to the scientific community, a gatekeeper of world leadership renown, and an enabler to seek a new paradigm allowing the exploration of the fringes of the profession. Professor Augenbroe has become the one person with whom, a la Kuhn, “I have been able to communicate in incomplete sentences.” I am in debt to all those sources that have prepared the groundwork upon which I am standing deserves the most sincere thanks for bringing the debate and insights on the issues to perspective in their publications. Dr. Lauri Koskela deserves especial mention. When we met in v Salford, Dr. Koskela stated that he had prior reservations for someone taking on this untypical broad topic of interest, knowing that pre-paradigms require philosophical and experiential insights. After we met at the University of Salford’s Post Graduate conference not only he agreed to be an external reader but encouraged the dissertation. Dr. Koskela’s publication on “The Metaphysics of Production” with Dr. Kagioglou brought a definite smile as we are beginning to take seriously Philosophy (Hegel 1975) in our search for theoretical foundations and clarity of thought. Dean Thom Galloway and Brian Bowen have been extremely valuable and provided a needed source of constructive criticism, guidance and encouragement. Both are a true joy in the role of external readers who in the process have accepted me as a friend and colleague; An honor that I cherish dearly. Dr. Linda Thomas, my mentor, has encouraged and sustained me though this unconventional quest, and I am in great debt for bringing to my attention Koen’s book on “Discussion of THE Method” where all-is-heuristics. When all is said and done, this dissertation claims to be a small addition to the world’s heuristic regarding the state of the art in approaching complex problems. My good friend Jeffrey Beard provided a sounding board in early conceptual thinking, and suggested reading Landes, Max-Neff and Maslow among others. Lastly, this work is dedicated to my wife Earline, my most devoted fan, providing life- giving encouragement during times of crisis, ample time during long hours of research and writing, and listening to the internal and external debate of issues, not expecting that merely because my arguments are logical, they will be compelling. Earline was able to ‘see’ early on that the shortest distance between two points is not a straight line, and had unwavering faith in my knapsack of professional experiences. José L. Fernández-Solís, Revised: Flight 21 Paris to Atlanta, Flight 29 Paris to Atlanta, July 30, 2005 July 29, 2006 vi TABLE OF CONTENT Chapter / Content Page PREFACE iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v LIST OF TABLES xi LIST OF FIGURES xii SUMMARY xv 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 MOTIVATIONS FOR THIS STUDY 4 1.1.1 Policy Makers 6 1.1.2 Building Construction Executives 9 1.1.3 Critical Planners 15 1.2 METHODS OF ANALYSIS 26 1.2.1 Method of Analysis of the Challenges 32 1.2.2 Method of Analysis of the Systemic Nature of Building Construction 36 1.2.2.1 Philosophical Approach 44 1.2.2.2 A Purely Theoretical Schema 47 1.2.3 Method of Analysis of the Capacity for Change 52 1.2.3.1 Partnering ‘capacity for change’ pilot study 56 1.3 DISSERTATION OBJECTIVES 58 1.4 CONCLUSIONS 59 2 CHALLENGES TO THE INDUSTRY 61 2.1 INTRODUCTION 62 2.2 THE CHALLENGE OF POPULATION GROWTH 65 2.2.1 Population Numbers and Resource Consumption 72 2.2.2 Standard of Living Mobility 74 2.2.3 Brief Analysis of China’s Population and GNP growth 75 2.2.4 Ecological Footprint Concept 84 2.2.5 Differentiation of Needs and Wants 89 2.2.6 Preliminary Conclusions 95 2.3 RE-DEFINITION OF THE SUSTAINABILITY CONCEPT 97 2.3.1 The Environment / Sustainability Challenge 102 2.3.2 Resource Consumption, Sustainability and Technology 104 2.3.2.1 Cement 111 2.3.2.2 Iron-Steel 112 2.3.2.3 Copper 113 2.3.2.4 Lead 115 2.3.2.5 Aluminum 115
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