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CSB Bank Ltd Initiating Coverage 05th April 2021 CSB Bank Ltd. On a cusp of rerating; Initiate with Buy CMP: INR 236 CSB Bank (erstwhile Catholic Syrian Bank) incorporated in 1920, has long operating history in Indian banking sector with strong base in Kerala. Post capital infusion by Fairfax India Holdings Mauritius Rating: BUY Investments Ltd (FIHM) and appointment of Mr. Rajendran Chinna Veerappan (MD & CEO) in Nov’16, the bank is continuously making Target Price: INR 316 strategic changes in its business model. Gold loans, 2W loans are growth drivers for the bank with continued focus on SME. With the Stock Info strengthening of the top management team, focus on retail lending BSE 542867 approach coupled with improving core metrics, the bank is well poised to returning into growth trajectory. With improving CD ratio (72% in NSE CSBBANK FY20 to 76% in FY23E) and specific move towards high yielding business, Bloomberg CSBBANK IN we expect margins of the bank to rise from 3.6% in FY20 to 4.8% in Reuters CSBB.BO FY23E, resulting into RoA of 1.4% by FY23E. Sector Banks Revamping as new age private sector bank: The bank has a long Face Value (INR) 10 operating history of over 100 years. Post capital infusion by FIHM, the bank’s capital position has improved and bank has made strategic revamp Equity Capital (INR Cr) 174 in its business model. The bank started realigning its organizational set-up Mkt Cap (INR Cr) 4,098 for efficiently driving the operations and business strategy, wherein 52w H/L (INR) 280 / 99 branches will be responsible only for deposits, cross-selling, and customer Avg Yearly Vol (in 000’) 340 servicing, and all loan products will be driven by dedicated teams. Shareholding Pattern % Gold loans is the primary driver of growth, focus remains on SME : With an intent to increase retail loan growth, the bank is focusing on 2W loans (As on Dec, 2020) and gold loans which are high yielding business. Share of gold loan in the Promoters 49.7 total advances has gone up to ~40% in Q3FY21 from 24% in FY19. The FII 5.1 gold portfolio has helped the bank to achieve strong growth with higher DII 8.1 profitability in the business. After consolidation in SME business, SME portfolio expected to accelerate towards growth. Public & Others 37.1 Improving margins due to improving share of high yielding segment: Stock Performance (%) 3m 6m 12m CSB Bank’s NIM increased from 3.6% in FY20 to 5.2% in Q3FY21 due to CSB Bank 3.9 2.1 108.0 increased share of retail portfolio primarily gold loan. Despite having lower SA rates at 2.1%, banks CASA has improved from 29% in FY20 to BSE 500 4.7 29.4 85.9 30.4% in Q3FY21, benefitting in margins improvement. We expect NIM to CSB Bank Vs BSE 500 improve further driven by increasing share of retail portfolio and improving CASA ratio of the bank. 250 225 Asset quality improved from historical peak level: With strengthening 200 risk management practice, recognition of corporate stress and improving 175 share of SME portfolio with high share of gold loans, GNPA ratio of the 150 125 bank came down to 3.4% (Proforma) in Q3FY21 from 7.9% in FY19. 100 75 Valuation and View: We initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy rating 50 and a target price of INR 316/share based on 2.0x FY23E ABV. With improving business execution capabilities, growing advances book after consolidation in SME/Corporate book, decline in NPA from its peak level, Jun-20 Oct-20 Apr-20 Feb-21 Dec-20 Aug-20 improving funding profile and high margin business, we believe the bank CSB Bank BSE 500 is well poised to deliver RoA/RoE of 1.4%/15% by FY23E. Q4FY21 business update of the bank was quite good with strong deposits and advances growth driven by gold loan. YE March NII PPOP PAT BVPS (INR) RoA (%) RoE (%) P/BV(x) (INR Cr) FY19 440 13 -197 167 -1.2 -13.8 1.4 Raju Barnawal FY20 592 281 13 113 0.1 0.6 2.1 [email protected] FY21E 978 656 255 128 1.1 11.5 1.8 022 67114870 FY22E 1,087 667 351 148 1.3 13.7 1.6 FY23E 1,274 807 448 174 1.4 14.9 1.4 Arihant Capital Markets Limited|Research Analyst SEBI Registration No: INH000002764 Arihant Capital Markets Ltd 1011, Solitaire Corporate Park, Bldg No.10, 1st Floor, Andheri Ghatkopar Link Rd, Chakala, Andheri (E), Mumbai 400093 Initiating Coverage| CSB Bank Ltd. Story in charts Exhibit 1: Consistent improvement seen in margins led by increased Exhibit 2: Considerable improvement seen in cost of funds due to share of high yielding business and lower cost of funds increasing share of CASA and lower deposits rates 6.0 NIM (%) 5.2 Cost of funds (%) 5.0 4.5 4.1 8.0 6.8 3.6 6.1 6.1 4.0 5.8 5.5 2.9 6.0 5.1 4.8 3.0 2.6 2.1 4.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Exhibit 3: Capital position of the bank improved significantly post Exhibit 4: Improving share of CASA ratio capital infusion by FIHM; it is at one of the best amongst banks CASA (%) CAR (%) 40.0 30.4 25.0 22.5 29.2 29.2 29.4 21.0 30.0 27.0 27.8 18.9 19.7 24.8 20.0 16.7 15.0 12.1 20.0 9.9 10.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Exhibit 5: Considerable improvement seen in credit-deposits ratio Exhibit 6: NPA of the bank have come off from its peak level due to (%) change in lending mix and strengthened risk management 74.0 80.0 70.2 72.0 71.8 68.7 10.0 GNPA (%) NNPA (%) 70.0 63.6 7.9 60.0 54.4 8.0 7.3 50.0 5.5 6.0 4.9 40.0 4.5 30.0 3.5 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.4 20.0 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.9 10.0 2.0 1.4 0.0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 0.0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Exhibit 7: Evolution of loan mix; Share of retail portfolio increasing Exhibit 8: Rising share of gold loans to overall loans; benefitting into gradually; consolidation seen in SME book NIM improvement 100.0 100.0 24.1 21.1 17.1 42.8 37.2 75.0 75.0 30.6 63.1 59.8 73.8 72.3 69.8 70.1 68.2 38.0 36.2 50.0 13.2 21.2 50.0 25.0 25.0 52.2 36.9 40.2 44.0 41.7 37.9 42.7 26.2 27.7 30.2 29.9 31.8 0.0 0.0 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Q3FY21 Gold Loans (%) Non-Gold loans (%) Retail Corporate SME Source: Company, Arihant Research Arihant Capital Markets Ltd 2 Initiating Coverage| CSB Bank Ltd. Advances growth expected to pick-up driven by retail & SME portfolio and lower base; gold loans is the primary driver of growth, 2W is newer focus area CSB bank had a meaningful share in SME business with 43% of total advances as of FY17 which has been consolidated. Consequently, SME share in the total advances came down to 17% as of Q3FY21. The bank has strategically reduced the exposure from high risk industries like jewellery manufacturing, steel business, hotels, cashew etc. Bank is looking to revamp its SME business and created a separate team focusing on SME business with credit analysts, relationship managers, and cluster heads assisting the branches. Gold loan is the key driver of business growth for the bank as it is a NIM accretive business. In Q3FY21, Gold loan growth was quite higher at 60% YoY driven by LTV advantage and higher gold price. Yield on gold loan increased from 11.8% in FY20 to 12.6% as on Q3FY21. Bank’s share of gold advances in the total advances increased to 40% in Q3FY21 from 30% in FY20. We believe, the higher gold loan growth rate of the bank will moderate going forward driven by fall in gold prices and removal of additional LTV advantage announced by RBI (In August’20, RBI had announced to increase the maximum loan to value (LTV) ratio for gold loans from 75% to 90% for banks valid until March 31, 2021). Under Corporate banking business, CSB cater to large and mid-size corporates and other business entities. Due to the reorganization of corporate portfolio and conscious strategy to reduce the reliance on big chunky customers, corporate book growth was low at 2% YoY in FY20 and it has de-grown by 2% YoY in Q3FY21 at INR 4,305 cr. 2W loans is the another focus area of the bank whose share is currently lower at 1% of total portfolio. Company’s 2W loans portfolio has increased from INR 21 cr in FY19 to INR 141 cr as on Q3FY21. As things started normalizing and increasing focus of bank towards SME & retail portfolio and the lower base of the portfolio, loan growth is expected to pick-up going forward.
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