India Banks - Q1FY22 Quarterly Preview
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India Banks - Q1FY22 Quarterly Preview Operating metrics are likely to be muted in Q1FY22 led by seasonally weak loan growth, no one-offs in the form of treasury gains/large recovery, and normalization in operating expenses vs Q1FY21. Consequently, we expect NII and PPoP growth of 10% and 1.5% YoY for banks under coverage. NIM could however improve sequentially across several banks led by a low base (large int reversal in Q4FY21) and continued improvement in CoF. Slippages should remain elevated and one could see rise in restructuring post the second wave, especially from the MSME and retail segments. PAT will nonetheless benefit from low base of Q1FY21, where most banks were in the process of strengthening their standard provisioning buffers. We factor in PAT growth of 46% YoY. Impact of second wave on asset quality for large banks should be limited in our view, as seen post the first wave. Increased slippages and restructuring likely Collection efficiency was impacted in April-June across banks owing to the statewide lockdowns. In the absence of a moratorium, asset quality pain should get reflected in near quarters. Consequently, delinquencies are likely to be elevated and restructuring should rise from current levels, with up fronting of credit cost in H1FY22. Restructurings should mostly come from retail and MSME segments. Unsecured segments like MFI/CC should continue to see elevated slippages. Stress from the MSME segment is yet to show up, and could come with a further lag post the expansion in ECLGS. Nonetheless, we expect the impact of second wave on large banks’ asset quality in the form of restructuring/slippages to be limited, as had been the case in first wave. Loan growth trends remain muted; Strong CASA accretion continues State-wise lockdowns starting 15 Apr’21 and seasonality are likely to result in sequential de-growth in advances during Q1FY22. RBI data shows that advances de-grew by 1% YTD till June 18th, growing by 5.8% YoY despite a low base. On the other hand, we have seen healthy CASA accretion across banks that have reported provisional data. This could be led by pullback of spending in the aftermath of COVID, apart from high system liquidity and lower TD rates. Operating profits impacted by lower treasury gains; Opex normalization NIM is likely to rise sequentially across several banks led by a low base (high interest reversal and impact of interest waiver in Q4) and continued traction in cost of funds, though abundant liquidity could have its bearing. NIM Mona Khetan improvement could be more prominent in case of IIB, RBL, and DCB where VP - Research decline in TD rates begin more recently. Operating profits are likely to be +91 22 40969762 sequentially lower across many banks, particularly PSBs, impacted by the [email protected] large recovery from Bhushan power seen in Q4FY21. Modest treasury gains and normalization of operating expenses will also impact PPoP, though Shreesh Chandra Associate higher fee lines vs Q1FY21 should negate some of this impact. +91 22 40969714 [email protected] Top Picks: ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, DCB Bank, CSB Bank July 08, 2021 Quarterly Estimates Net Interest Income Pre-provision profit (Rs bn) Jun-22E Jun-21 Mar-21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Jun-22E Jun-21 Mar-21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) AXSB 79.1 69.9 75.5 13.3 4.7 67.1 58.4 68.6 14.9 (2.2) BOB 79.0 68.2 71.1 15.9 11.2 48.7 43.2 62.7 12.7 (22.3) CBK 66.7 61.0 55.9 9.5 19.4 48.6 42.9 57.0 13.3 (14.8) CUBK 4.9 4.4 4.3 12.3 14.5 3.6 3.6 2.8 1.3 26.6 CSBBANK 2.7 1.9 2.8 43.1 (3.8) 1.4 1.3 1.3 8.4 8.5 DCBB 3.5 3.1 3.1 14.2 12.5 2.1 1.9 2.1 9.1 1.7 FB 15.2 13.0 14.2 17.3 7.1 10.1 9.3 8.9 8.2 14.0 HDFCB 176.3 156.7 171.2 12.6 3.0 149.3 128.3 155.3 16.3 (3.9) ICICIBC 108.0 92.8 104.3 16.4 3.5 92.2 107.8 85.4 (14.5) 7.9 INBK 40.8 38.7 33.3 5.2 22.3 28.0 27.5 25.5 1.6 9.8 IIB 37.3 33.1 35.3 12.7 5.5 32.3 28.6 31.3 12.9 3.2 KMB 41.3 37.2 38.4 10.9 7.5 33.2 26.2 34.1 26.5 (2.6) RBK 10.6 10.4 9.1 1.5 16.6 8.2 6.9 8.8 19.2 (6.2) SBIN 279.7 266.4 270.7 5.0 3.4 151.3 180.6 197.0 (16.2) (23.2) Aggregate 945.2 856.6 889.2 10.3 6.3 675.9 666.5 740.7 1.4 (8.7) Source: DART, Company Profit Before Tax Profit After Tax (Rs bn) Jun-22E Jun-21 Mar-21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Jun-22E Jun-21 YoY (%) Mar-21 QoQ (%) AXSB 33.3 14.3 133.1 35.7 (6.8) 25.0 11.1 26.8 124.5 (6.8) BOB 12.0 (13.1) NA 26.8 (55.1) 9.0 (8.6) (10.5) NA (186.0) CBK 8.0 4.6 73.4 15.7 (49.3) 5.2 4.1 10.1 29.1 (48.1) CUBK 1.9 2.0 (6.6) 0.5 302.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 (3.4) 33.8 CSBBANK 0.7 0.7 4.1 0.6 28.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 2.8 28.4 DCBB 1.1 1.1 2.7 1.0 6.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 4.1 6.0 FB 5.7 5.4 5.7 6.4 (11.6) 4.2 4.0 4.8 5.4 (11.6) HDFCB 104.6 89.4 17.0 108.4 (3.5) 79.0 66.6 81.9 18.6 (3.5) ICICIBC 56.5 31.8 77.4 56.6 (0.2) 44.0 26.0 44.0 69.1 (0.2) INBK 7.4 6.1 20.5 8.0 (7.0) 5.5 3.7 17.1 48.1 (68.0) IIB 13.0 6.0 115.3 12.6 2.7 9.5 4.6 9.3 106.5 2.7 KMB 21.1 16.6 27.2 22.3 (5.1) 16.0 12.5 16.8 28.3 (5.1) RBK 2.5 1.9 30.7 1.1 124.7 1.9 1.4 0.8 32.2 147.9 SBIN 61.5 55.6 10.6 86.5 (28.9) 45.9 41.9 64.5 9.4 (28.9) Aggregate 329.2 222.4 48.0 382.1 (13.9) 247.9 170.1 267.8 45.8 (7.4) Source: DART, Company July 08, 2021 2 (%) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Credit Growth (YoY) Deposit Growth (YoY) July 08,2021 5.0 Spreads - Outstanding lending rates vs TD rates 4.5 4.0 3.5 DART, RBI Source: DART, RBI Source: DART, Source: 3.0 2.5 Credit growth remainsgrowth Credit However, fromsharperdeclineinCoF vs benefitted yields Spreads have RBI Jul-15 Jul-20 Jan-18 Jun-13 Jun-18 Oct-16 Apr-14 Apr-19 Sep-14 Feb-15 Sep-19 Feb-20 Dec-15 Dec-20 Aug-17 Nov-13 Nov-18 Mar-17 May-16 May-21 PSB Private SCB all time low CD ratio (ex of demon) could impact NIM (exofdemon)could lowCDratio time all 3 (%) 80 78 elusive 76 74 72 70 68 Jun-16 Jun-20 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-21 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Mar-20 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-21 CD Ratio Largely stable Gsec 5/10 yr yields to limit treasury gains (%) 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 10yr Gsec 5yr Gsec 3yr Gsec Source: DART, RBI High provision buffers to limit prov requirements (%) 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 - - 0.0 IIB SBI RBL CSB BoB Axis DCB ICICI KMB CUBK Indian HDFCB Canara Federal Std assets buffer % Source: DART, Company Restructured book to rise from current levels (%) 6 5.0 5 4.3 4 3 2.5 2.6 1.8 2.0 2 1.5 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.6 1 0.3 0.4 0 IIB SBI RBL BoB Axis DCB ICICI KMB CUBK Indian HDFCB Canara Federal Restructuring % Source: DART, Company July 08, 2021 4 Quarterly Estimates Company Jun-22E Mar-21 QoQ (%) Jun-21 YoY (%) Comments Axis Bank Net Interest Income 79.1 75.5 4.7 69.9 13.3 YoY loan growth to improve to 11% owing to base effect even as QoQ growth is Pre-provision profit 67.1 68.6 (2.2) 58.4 14.9 flattish.