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Malaysia SP Setia PP16832/01/2013 (031128) PP16832/01/2012 (029059) Malaysia Company Update 6 December 2012 17 October 2011 Buy (unchanged) S P Setia Another Prime Land Acquisition Share price: MYR3.08 Target price: MYR3.81 (from MYR3.77; Now, it is Ampang. Despite the premium pricing, we are positive on MYR3.60 post-placement) SP Setia's latest land acquisition at Jln Ampang given its strategic location. The development, which will have a GDV of an e.MYR1.04b, is expected to contribute 1.5sen EPS p.a. from FY10/15 onwards. We Wong Wei Sum, CFA fine-tune our FY10/14 earnings forecasts to factor in this new landbank. [email protected] Our TP is slightly raised to MYR3.81 (+4sen; MYR3.60 post placement) (03) 2297 8679 based on an unchanged 20% discount to RNAV. Reiterate BUY. Buys British High Commission land. SPSB has entered into a SPA Stock Information with the British government to buy a 3.1-acre plot of freehold land at Description: A versatile property developer with a spectrum Jalan Ampang for MYR295m (MYR2,200 psf) cash through an open of mid-to high-end products to its credentials, including the tender. The land, which now holds a 3-storey building, 2-storey reputable Setia Alam and Setia Eco Park. clubhouse with ancillary buildings and a swimming pool, is currently Key earnings drivers include MYR6-7b KL Eco City, MYR10b occupied by The British High Commission, who will vacate in mid-2014. Setia City, MYR8b Setia Federal Hill and 40%-owned Battersea Power Station in London. Strategic location justifies premium pricing. The land is strategically Ticker: SPSB MK located in the CBD, within the immediate vicinity of KLCC and the Shares Issued (m): 2,005.8 popular neighbourhood known as “Embassy Row”. It is also adjacent to Market Cap (MYR m): 6,177.9 the high-end, low-density residential enclave of Ampang Hilir/U-Thant. It 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m): 1.29 KLCI: 1,613.79 enjoys a wide frontage of Jalan Ampang and is within 10 minutes Free float (%): 14.2 walking distance to the Ampang Park LRT Station. In terms of pricing, Major Shareholders: % the MYR2,200psf tag is 47% higher than property consultants’ earlier PNB 51.5 expectation of MYR1,500psf. The land comes with a plot ratio of 6. SKIM AMANAH SAHAM 18.5 KEE SIN LIEW 5.6 A MYR1b project planned. SPSB intends to develop the land into an EPF 5.2 KWAP 5.0 integrated commercial development comprising residential, retail and office units. The project, which has an e.GDV of MYR1.04b, is expected to be launched by end-2014 at the earliest. Assuming a pretax margin of 25% and a development period of six years, the project is expected to churn out an annual net profit of MYR32.5m (1.5sen EPS) from FY10/15 onwards. Our RNAV estimate is raised to MYR4.76 (+5sen; Historical Chart MYR4.50 post placement) following this acquisition. 5.0 S P Setia – Summary Earnings Table SPSB MK Equity FYE Oct (MYR m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F 4.5 Revenue 1,745.9 2,232.5 2,631.5 3,498.3 4,987.2 EBITDA 263.5 454.4 555.6 719.9 1,031.7 4.0 Recurring Net Profit 187.8 294.6 365.4 465.0 671.0 Recurring Basic EPS (cents) 10.7 16.2 17.0 21.62 31.19 3.5 EPS growth (%) 24.2 52.1 4.7 27.3 44.3 DPS (cents) 10.0 10.5 10.2 13.0 18.7 3.0 PER 28.9 19.0 18.1 14.2 9.9 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 14.0 24.5 20.0 11.4 Div Yield (%) 3.2 3.4 3.3 4.2 6.1 P/BV(x) 2.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 Performance: Net Gearing (%) 26.5 (2.7) 9.4 24.3 27.9 52-week High/Low MYR4.1/MYR2.98 ROE (%) 11.5 9.5 10.2 12.3 16.6 ROA (%) 5.7 5.9 6.7 8.0 10.5 Consensus Net Profit (MYR m) - - 362.0 436.36 524.9 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Earnings Revision (%) - - - - (0.2) Absolute (%) (15.8) (13.2) (18.7) (19.8) (20.0) Source: Maybank KE Relative (%) (13.4) (10.8) (21.6) (28.8) (25.4) SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Page 1 of 2 S P Setia 17 October 2011 Location of British High Commission site Ampang Park LRT Station KLCC Source: Company British High Commission Location of British High Commission Source: Websites Source: Websites 6 December 2012 Page 2 of 8 Page 1 of 2 S P Setia 17 October 2011 Table 1: SPSB's Fully Diluted RNAV MV BV Surplus Landbank Stake acres (MYRm) (MYRm) (MYRm) Malaysia Southern region Bukit Indah 100% 141 184.3 33.8 150.5 Setia Indah 100% 40 34.8 5.0 29.8 Setia Cascadia 100% 259 225.6 169.2 56.4 Setia Tropika 100% 213 185.6 65.4 120.2 Setia Eco Gardens 70% 587 767.1 140.6 438.5 Setia Business Park II 100% 266 125.8 125.8 0.0 Central region Setia Eco Glades @ Cyberjaya 70% 268 420.4 420.4 0.0 Setia Eco Hills 100% 673 381.3 381.3 0.0 Setia Alam 100% 885 2,313.0 134.5 2,178.5 Setia Eco Park 50% 354 925.2 123.4 400.9 Setia Nexus 1&2 70% 10 37.0 24.0 9.1 Kenny Hills Grande 70% 6 95.4 71.4 16.8 Northern region Setia Pearl 100% 27 97.0 33.6 63.4 Setia Greens 100% 29 104.2 68.2 36.0 Sub-total: 5,896.8 1,796.7 3,500.1 DCF (discount factor: 13-14%) NPV Malaysia Setia Sky Residences, Klang Valley 70% 26.0 Setia City, Klang Valley 100% 565.0 KL Eco City, Klang Valley 100% 639.4 Setia Federal Hill at Bangsar, Klang Valley 50% 231.2 Seputeh Land, Klang Valley 100% 45.8 Brook Residences, Penang 100% 9.2 Setia V Residences, Penang 100% 26.4 Tanjung Bungah Penang 100% 143.7 Aeropod - Tg Aru, Sabah 70% 51.9 88 Setia, Johor Bahru 100% 45.0 British High Comm 100% 93.2 Singapore 18 Woodsville 100% 17.5 Chestnut Avenue 100% 81.2 Australia Fulton Lane 100% 92.9 St Kilda 100% 61.6 United Kingdom Battersea Power Station 40% 315.1 Sub-total: 2,445.0 Grand total 5,945.1 Placement proceeds (322.6m at MYR2.82/share or 10% discount to MYR3.13) 908.8 Shareholders fund - 2012 3,597.4 RNAV 9,542.5 RNAV : post-placement 10,451.3 Warrants (MYR2.99 exercise price; expired in Jan 2013) 689.8 RNAV post warrant proceeds 10,232.4 RNAV post warrant proceeds : post-placement 11,141.1 Enlarged share capital (m shares) 2,151.1 Enlarged share capital (m shares) - post placement 2,473.7 FD RNAV (MYR/share) 4.76 FD RNAV (MYR/share) : post-placement 4.50 Target price (MYR/share) (20% discount to RNAV) 3.81 Target price (MYR/share) (20% discount to RNAV) : post-placement 3.60 Source: Company, Maybank KE 6 December 2012 Page 3 of 8 Page 1 of 2 S P Setia 17 October 2011 INCOME STATEMENT (MYR m) BALANCE SHEET (MYR m) FY Oct 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F FY Oct 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F Revenue 2,232.5 2,631.5 3,498.3 4,987.2 Fixed Assets 336.7 418.3 495.3 568.2 EBITDA 454.4 555.6 719.9 1,031.7 Other LT Assets 1,916.6 1,782.5 1,648.3 1,514.2 Depreciation & Amortisation 12.3 18.5 22.9 27.1 Cash/ST Investments 1,436.4 1,013.9 435.8 222.0 Operating Profit (EBIT) 442.0 537.1 696.9 1,004.5 Other Current Assets 1,895.9 2,257.5 3,238.3 4,066.8 Interest (Exp)/Inc (11.5) (8.5) (11.4) (12.4) Total Assets 5,585.7 5,472.1 5,817.8 6,371.2 Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 One-offs 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 ST Debt 236.2 236.2 236.2 236.2 Pre-Tax Profit 430.6 528.7 685.6 992.1 Other Current Liabilities 791.9 527.3 687.0 972.0 Tax (108.2) (132.2) (171.4) (257.9) LT Debt 1,117.1 1,117.1 1,117.1 1,117.1 Minority Interest 5.5 (31.1) (49.2) (63.2) Other LT Liabilities 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Net Profit 328.0 365.4 465.0 671.0 Minority Interest (7.0) (7.0) (7.0) (7.0) Recurring Net Profit 294.6 365.4 465.0 671.0 Shareholders' Equity 3,446.4 3,597.4 3,783.4 4,051.8 Total Liabilities-Capital 5,585.7 5,472.1 5,817.8 6,371.2 Revenue Growth % 27.9 17.9 32.9 42.6 EBITDA Growth (%) 72.4 22.3 29.6 43.3 Share Capital (m) 1,832.7 2,151.0 2,151.0 2,151.0 EBIT Growth (%) 78.1 21.5 29.8 44.1 Gross Debt/(Cash) 1,353.3 1,353.3 1,353.3 1,353.3 Net Profit Growth (%) 30.2 11.4 27.3 44.3 Net Debt/(Cash) (91.4) 339.4 917.5 1,131.3 Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) 56.9 24.0 27.3 44.3 Working Capital 2,304.3 2,507.9 2,750.9 3,080.6 Tax Rate % 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 Gross gearing % 39.3 37.6 35.8 33.4 CASH FLOW (MYR m) RATES & RATIOS FY Oct 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F FY Oct 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F Profit before taxation 430.6 528.7 685.6 992.1 EBITDA Margin % 20.4 21.1 20.6 20.7 Depreciation 11.7 18.4 22.9 27.1 Pretax margin (%) 19.3 20.1 19.6 19.9 Net interest receipts/(payments) (20.3) (8.5) (11.4) (12.4) Net Profit Margin % 14.7 13.9 13.3 13.5 Working capital change 383.9 224.9 16.7 28.7 ROE % 9.5 10.2 12.3 16.6 Cash tax paid (116.6) (132.2) (171.4) (257.9) ROA % 5.9 6.7 8.0 10.5 Others (incl'd exceptional items) (16.8) (16.8) (16.8) (16.8) Net Margin Ex.
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