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City Office Market Watch December 2012

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City Office Market Watch December 2012 Savills World Research UK Commercial City Office Market Watch December 2012 Take-up returns to normal levels, but demand GRAPH 1 remains below average Take-up Supply and demand n There are 12 Grade A buildings snapshot offering over 100,000 sq ft currently n Take-up this month reached 500,000 being marketed, 32% of space in this sq ft, bringing the total for 2012 to upper bracket is located in the City 4.63m sq ft. This is 18% up on last fringe. year and back on par with the ten year average. n We expect some sub-40,000 sq ft lettings at the Shard, the Heron Tower, n 72% of offices taken this year 10 Aldermanbury and 200 Aldersgate have been either new or recently during the course of 2013 to bolster refurbished. This leaves the amount of occupier confidence. Grade A space taken during 2012 23% up on average. n Under supplied submarkets EC2 Source: Savills Research and EC3, which are expected to deliver GRAPH 2 n The robustness of the Insurance a further 421,000 sq ft and 503,000 sq Supply sector was evidenced by the letting ft of newly refurbished or developed of 289,000 sq ft at the St Botolph offices respectively by the end of 2013, Building to JLT during November, are likely to remain in balance. this remains 2012’s largest leasing transaction. n The average prime rent by the end of December was estimated to be £54.30 n Insurance and Professional sector per sq ft. This represents around 2.8% occupiers accounted for the largest growth on 2011. three deals in December; Nabarro pre- let 127,000 sq ft at Alban Gate, Royal n However, any rental growth in the Sun Alliance pre-let 77,000 sq ft at 20 first half of 2013 is likely to be muted; Fenchurch Street and Gallagher Heath prime rents are expected to rise by just took 61,000 sq ft at the Walbrook. 0.8% and top rents are expected to remain flat. Source: Savills Research n Altogether the Insurance and GRAPH 3 Financial Services sector took 32% n There is currently 2.36m sq ft of of space leased during 2012, and the active demand solely focussed on City rents Professional sector took 22%. The the City. 40% of that comes from Banking sector, who can typically be Professional sector occupiers, 31% expected to take a 13% share, leased from the Insurance and Financial just 2% of office space during 2012. Services sector and 15% from the TMT sector. n By the end of the year 253,000 sq ft was under offer at pre-completions n Active demand from the Banking and 1.08m sq ft was under offer in sector remains muted at 2%, and total total. demand with the potential to focus on the City remains around 18% down on n Total supply at the close of the the long term average. fourth quarter was 7.79m sq ft, giving a vacancy rate of 9.6%. New and recently refurbished offices are now Source: Savills Research estimated to make up 78% of available space. savills.co.uk/research 01 Market Watch | City offices Analysis close up TABLE 1 TABLE 2 Take-up Supply Month Year to date Total % Grade A % chg on Vacancy Sq ft % Grade A Sq ft % Grade A prev mnth rate (%) Jan-12 237,337 42% 237,337 42% 7,533,908 56% 5.8% 9.3% Feb-12 239,577 10% 476,914 26% 7,640,648 55% 1.4% 9.4% Mar-12 341,567 62% 818,481 41% 8,202,859 58% 7.4% 10.1% Apr-12 363,518 74% 1,181,999 51% 7,760,635 64% -5.4% 9.6% May-12 372,683 66% 1,554,682 55% 7,604,474 68% -2.0% 9.4% Jun-12 555,109 84% 2,109,791 62% 7,606,283 71% 0.0% 9.4% Jul-12 278,538 65% 2,388,329 63% 7,631,590 69% 0.3% 9.4% Aug-12 393,876 74% 2,782,205 64% 7,505,824 71% -1.6% 9.3% Sep-12 411,260 60% 3,193,465 64% 8,453,621 77% 12.6% 10.4% Oct-12 321,873 87% 3,515,338 66% 8,361,370 77% -1.1% 10.3% Nov-12 614,708 86% 4,130,046 69% 7,749,848 77% -7.3% 9.6% Dec-12 500,390 94% 4,630,436 72% 7,789,129 78% 0.5% 9.6% Month Year to date Month % chg m-o-m Sq ft Sq ft Number Sq ft Number Sq ft Number Sq ft Number <5,000 15,907 5 393,219 113 231,448 65 -4.4% -7.1% 5-10,000 22,196 3 791,728 113 663,870 90 21.6% 21.6% 10-15,000 12,374 1 693,310 59 561,496 45 -3.3% -4.3% 15-25,000 155,793 7 656,876 33 659,363 33 -14.1% -15.4% 25-50,000 29,030 1 662,590 20 1,131,797 34 10.0% 3.0% 50-100,000 137,978 2 865,112 12 1,591,276 25 6.3% 4.2% >100,000 127,112 1 567,601 3 2,949,879 13 -4.4% 0.0% Total 500,390 20 4,630,436 353 7,789,129 305 0.5% 1.7% TABLE 3 TABLE 4 Rents Development pipeline Top Sq ft Dev Refurb Total £ per sq ft Rent* Grade A Ave Prime** Ave rent Grade B free*** 2012 761,383 1,292,721 2,054,104 2013 1,311,777 2,087,151 3,398,928 Jan-12 £57.50 £48.50 £34.19 2014 2,836,901 1,651,526 4,488,427 Feb-12 £51.00 £46.25 £31.76 2015 1,210,481 298,699 1,509,180 Mar-12 £49.18 £37.85 £32.52 £48.20 20 Total 6,120,542 5,330,097 11,450,639 Apr-12 £55.00 £36.88 £40.86 Completions due in the next 6 months are included in the supply figures May-12 £70.00 £44.69 £27.12 TABLE 5 Demand & Under Offers Jun-12 £65.00 £45.83 £22.81 £57.70 20 Potential demand (sq ft) 1,851,000 Jul-12 £64.00 £45.39 £34.32 Active demand (sq ft) 5,469,500 Aug-12 £68.50 £53.41 £29.86 Total demand (sq ft) 7,320,500 % change on long term ave -18% Sep-12 £57.50 £38.62 £31.38 £58.45 21 Total under offer (sq ft) 1,088,087 Oct-12 £57.50 £47.73 £35.57 Under offer this month (sq ft) 330,591 Nov-12 £57.00 £41.67 £35.00 Tenant controlled supply 13% Dec-12 £62.50 £44.59 £40.83 £54.30 22 * Omits confidential rents 02 ** Average prime rents for preceding 3 months *** Average rent free on leases of 10 years for preceding 3 months Market Watch | City offices Sub-market review Take-up Supply Top Rents* Last month Yr to date % Grade A Current % Grade A % ch m-o-m Month Yr to date Core 479,196 3,591,835 74% 6,268,933 81% -0.1% £62.50 £70.00 Fringe 21,194 1,038,601 61% 1,520,196 68% 2.9% £42.50 £47.50 Total 500,390 4,630,436 72% 7,789,129 78% 0.5% £62.50 £70.00 EC1 87,908 563,102 63% 728,395 55% 0.6% £44.50 £45.00 EC2 184,111 1,448,403 70% 2,431,758 86% 2.6% £47.50 £70.00 EC3 110,874 1,063,619 86% 1,116,879 65% 3.0% £62.50 £65.00 EC4 117,497 868,301 67% 1,620,533 86% -2.2% £54.00 £60.00 SE1 0 353,947 57% 1,229,778 91% 3.5% £45.00 WC1 0 105,444 59% 204,789 91% -24.1% £50.00 WC2 0 135,259 90% 71,887 61% -8.0% £47.50 E1 0 92,361 62% 385,110 39% 2.1% £39.50 Total 500,390 4,630,436 72% 7,789,129 78% 0.5% £62.50 £70.00 * Omits confidential rents Significant 2012 transactions Rent Address Floor/s Sq ft Grade achieved Rent free Tenant Lessor St Botolph Building, EC3 LG, 3-9 289,000 A Confidential Confidential JLT Delancey Alban Gate, 125 London Wall, EC2 12-18 127,000 A £45.00 36 Nabarro JP Morgan 70 Mark Lane, EC3 1-6 84,000 A £54.50 36 Miller Mitsui Fudosan Land Securities 20 Fenchurch Street, EC3 14-17 77,000 A Confidential Confidential RSA Canary Wharf Group The Walbrook, EC4 G, 7 61,000 A £51.00 42 Gallagher Heath Minerva Watermark Place, EC4 7 34,000 A £52.50 12 M&G Nomura Hill Taylor Dick- British Land Broadgate Tower, EC2 6, 7, Pt 8 32,000 A £43.50 Confidential inson Blackstone 20 Gresham Street, EC2 5 32,000 A Confidential Confidential Cooperative Bank Standard Bank Land Securities 20 Fenchurch Street, EC3 33 29,000 A Confidential Confidential Ascot Canary Wharf Group One New Change, EC4 Pt 3 29,000 A Confidential Confidential Dealogic Land Securities Buckley Building, EC1 LG, G 21,000 A Confidential Confidential Unilever Derwent Heron Tower, EC2 Pt 25 7,000 A £70.00 Confidential Avoca Heron International 03 Market Watch | City offices Supply (over 80,000 sq ft) Address Postcode Sq ft Comments The Shard, London Bridge Street SE1 590,000 Available Cannon Place, Cannon Street EC4 389,000 Available 10 Aldermanbury EC2 328,000 52,000 sq ft under offer Heron Tower, 110 Bishopsgate EC2 313,000 64,000 sq ft under offer The Walbrook, 27-29 Walbrook EC4 311,000 Available 1 St Martin's Le Grand EC1 242,000 31,000 sq ft under offer 200 Aldersgate Street EC1 165,000 25,000 sq ft under offer One London Bridge SE1 168,000 30,000 sq ft under offer Finsbury Circus House EC2 145,000 Available Cottons Centre SE1 140,000 9,000 sq ft under offer 199 Bishopsgate EC2 139,000 14,000 sq ft under offer 99 Bishopsgate EC2 119,000 Available 66 Prescot Street E1 113,000 Available New Fetter Place EC4 88,000 Available 63 St Mary Axe EC3 80,000 Available Please contact us for further information Sophy Moffat Peter Thursfield Analyst - Research Director - City Agency 0207 409 8791 0207 409 8928 [email protected] [email protected] Savills plc Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange.
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