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Defending America Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense

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Defending America Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 Updates from: CSIS.ORG, “Homeland Defense” Comments to: [email protected] DEFENDING AMERICA REDEFINING THE CONCEPTUAL BORDERS OF HOMELAND DEFENSE HOMELAND DEFENSE: THE CURRENT AND FUTURE TERRORIST THREAT Rough Draft for Comment Anthony H. Cordesman Senior Fellow for Strategic Assessment REVISION: SEPTEMBER 1, 2000 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 9/1/00 Page ii The following report is a rough initial draft section of a full report on Homeland Defense being prepared as part of the CSIS Homeland Defense project. It is a rough working draft, and reflects solely the views of the author and not of the CSIS team working on the project. It is being circulated for comment and reaction and will be substantially modified and updated before being included in the final report. Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 9/1/00 Page iii HOMELAND DEFENSE: THE CURRENT AND FUTURE TERRORIST THREAT ......................................I Rough Draft for Comment......................................................................................................................i REVISION: SEPTEMBER 1, 2000...........................................................................................................................i INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................................ 1 RISK ASSESSMENT: PLANNING FOR “NON-PATTERNS” AND POTENTIAL RISK .............................. 5 LOOKING BEYOND EMOTIONAL DEFINITIONS OF TERRORISM ......................................................................... 5 PATTERNS AND NON-PATTERNS IN THE NUMBER OF ATTACKS......................................................................... 9 CASUALTIES VERSUS INCIDENTS: THE LACK OF CORRELATION..................................................................... 10 US AND AMERICAN CASUALTIES VERSUS INTERNATIONAL CASUALTIES ........................................................ 11 CONSIDERING THE THREAT FROM BOTH STATE AND NON-STATE ACTORS..................................................... 20 States, “Terrorists,” and Acts of War .......................................................................................................... 20 Planning for Major Attacks and Asymmetric Warfare by State Actors .......................................................... 24 The Threat of “Proxies” and “Networks” ................................................................................................... 25 Dealing with Nuance and Complex Motives................................................................................................. 26 CONSIDERATION OF THE FULL SPECTRUM OF POSSIBLE TYPES AND METHODS OF ATTACK: THE NEED TO CONSIDER “WORST CASES” ........................................................................................................................... 26 MAKING OFFENSE, DETERRENCE, DENIAL, DEFENSE, AND RETALIATION PART OF HOMELAND DEFENSE.... 28 LINKING HOMELAND DEFENSE TO COUNTERPROLIFERATION........................................................................ 30 THREAT PRIORITIZATION: SEEKING TO IDENTIFY CURRENT AND ................................................ 31 FUTURE THREATS ......................................................................................................................................... 31 POTENTIAL STATE ACTORS ............................................................................................................................ 31 A Department of State Assessment of State Threats...................................................................................... 33 A Department of Defense Assessment of Threats from Foreign States........................................................... 37 The Probable Lack of Well-Defined Strategic Warning of a Threat from State Actors and Unpredictable Behavior in a Crisis .................................................................................................................................... 40 FOREIGN TERRORISTS AND EXTREMISTS........................................................................................................ 44 Continuing Threats and Counterterrorist Action.......................................................................................... 44 Major Foreign Terrorist Groups and Extremists.......................................................................................... 47 Threats from Foreign Students and Immigrants ........................................................................................... 58 DOMESTIC TERRORISTS AND EXTREMISTS ..................................................................................................... 60 The Implications of Past Terrorist Attacks ................................................................................................... 63 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 9/1/00 Page iv PROBABILITY VERSUS PROBABILITY THEORY ................................................................................................ 69 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Asymmetric Warfare & Terrorism 9/1/00 Page v List of Charts, Tables, and Figures Table One .............................................................................................................................................................................. 10 Attacks on the US Homeland versus Attacks on Other Regions................................................................................................10 Table Two.............................................................................................................................................................................. 14 Patterns in Total International and US Casualties from International Terrorism – Part One .......................................................14 Table Two.............................................................................................................................................................................. 15 Patterns in Total International and US Casualties from International Terrorism – Part Two.......................................................15 Chart One .............................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Terrorist Incidents Involving Americans vs. Total Incidents..................................................................................................... 16 Chart Two.............................................................................................................................................................................. 17 Terrorist Incidents in the US: 1980-2000................................................................................................................................. 17 Chart Three............................................................................................................................................................................ 18 Terrorist Casualties Involving Americans: 1987-1999.............................................................................................................. 18 Chart Four.............................................................................................................................................................................. 19 Anti-US Attacks by Region: 1994-1999 .................................................................................................................................. 19 Table Three............................................................................................................................................................................ 43 Global Challenges: Who Has Weapons of Mass Destruction? .................................................................................................. 43 Table Four ............................................................................................................................................................................. 64 Chronological Summary of Terrorist Incidents in the US: 1990-1997.......................................................................................64 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. CSIS Homeland Defense: Current and Future Threat 9/1/00 Page 1 Introduction There is a wide spectrum of potential threats to the American homeland that do not involve the threat of overt attacks by states using long-range missiles or conventional military forces. Such threats include covert attacks by state actors, state use of proxies, independent terrorist and extremist attacks by foreign groups or individuals, and independent terrorist and extremist attacks by residents of the US. These threats are currently limited in scope and frequency. No pattern of actual attacks on US territory has yet emerged that provides a clear basis for predicting how serious any given form of attack will be in the future, what means of attack will be used, or how lethal new forms of attack will be if they are successful. As a result, there is a major ongoing debate over the seriousness of the threat and how the US government
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