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Understanding Space Weather to Shield Society: a Global Road Map for 2015–2025 Commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

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Understanding Space Weather to Shield Society: a Global Road Map for 2015–2025 Commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Advances in Space Research 55 (2015) 2745–2807 www.elsevier.com/locate/asr Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015–2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS ⇑ Carolus J. Schrijver a, , Kirsti Kauristie b,*, Alan D. Aylward c, Clezio M. Denardini d, Sarah E. Gibson e, Alexi Glover f, Nat Gopalswamy g, Manuel Grande h, Mike Hapgood i, Daniel Heynderickx j, Norbert Jakowski k, Vladimir V. Kalegaev l, Giovanni Lapenta m, Jon A. Linker n, Siqing Liu o, Cristina H. Mandrini p, Ian R. Mann q, Tsutomu Nagatsuma r, Dibyendu Nandy s, Takahiro Obara t, T. Paul O’Brien u, Terrance Onsager v, Hermann J. Opgenoorth w, Michael Terkildsen x, Cesar E. Valladares y, Nicole Vilmer z a Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, 3251 Hanover Street, Palo Alto, CA 94304, USA b Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00560, Helsinki, Finland c University College London, Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK d Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, S. J. Campos, SP, Brazil e HAO/NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA f RHEA System and ESA SSA Programme Office, 64293 Darmstadt, Germany g NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA h Univ. of Aberystwyth, Penglais STY23 3B, UK i RAL Space and STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Oxford, Didcot OX11 0QX, UK j DH Consultancy BVBA, Diestsestraat 133/3, 3000 Leuven, Belgium k German Aerospace Center, Kalkhorstweg 53, 17235 Neustrelitz, Germany l Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russian Federation m KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200B, Leuven 3001, Belgium n Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA 92121, USA o National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Haidian District, Beijing 100190, China p Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio, C1428ZAA Buenos Aires, Argentina q Dept. of Physics, Univ. Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2J1, Canada r Space Weather and Environment Informatics Lab., National Inst. of Information and Communications Techn., Tokyo 184-8795, Japan s Center for Excellence in Space Sciences and Indian Institute of Science, Education and Research, Kolkata, Mohanpur 74125, India t Planetary Plasma and Atmospheric Research Center, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba, Sendai 980-8578, Japan u Space Science Department/Chantilly, Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, VA 20151, USA v NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder CO 80305, USA w Swedish Institute of Space Physics, 75121 Uppsala, Sweden x Space Weather Services, Bureau of Meteorology, Surry Hills NSW, Australia y Institute for Scientific Research, Boston College, Newton, MA 02459, USA z LESIA, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, UPMC, Universite´ Paris-Diderot, 5 place Jules Janssen, 92195 Meudon, France Received 1 December 2014; received in revised form 3 March 2015; accepted 18 March 2015 Available online 3 April 2015 Abstract There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by ⇑ Corresponding authors. E-mail address: [email protected] (C.J. Schrijver). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023 0273-1177/Ó 2015 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 2746 C.J. Schrijver et al. / Advances in Space Research 55 (2015) 2745–2807 improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. We recognize that much progress has been made and con- tinues to be made with a powerful suite of research observatories on the ground and in space, forming the basis of a Sun–Earth system observatory. But the domain of space weather is vast – extending from deep within the Sun to far outside the planetary orbits – and the physics complex – including couplings between various types of physical processes that link scales and domains from the microscopic to large parts of the solar system. Consequently, advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun–Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recom- mend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun–Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 h ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar- wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a com- prehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. An executive summary provides an overview of all recommendations. Ó 2015 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Keywords: Space weather; COSPAR/ILWS road map panel Contents Executive summary. 2747 1. Introduction . 2750 2. Space weather: society and science . 2751 3. User needs . 2754 3.1. Electric power sector . 2755 3.2. Positioning, navigation, and communication . 2756 3.3. (Aero) space assets . 2757 4. Promising opportunities and some challenges . 2757 4.1. The opportunity of improved CME forecasts. 2757 4.1.1. Solar surface . 2759 4.1.2. Heliosphere . 2760 4.2. Challenges and opportunities for geomagnetic disturbances. 2761 4.2.1. L1 observations: Validation of >1 hr forecasts and interaction with the magnetosphere . 2761 4.2.2. Reconfigurations in the magnetosphere–ionosphere system and strong GICs . 2761 4.3. Research for improved forecasts of ionospheric storm evolution . 2762 4.4. Steps for improved radiation belt forecasts and specification. 2763 4.5. Challenges for forecasts with lead times beyond 2 days. 2764 4.6. Specification of extreme conditions and forecasts of the solar cycle . 2764 5. General recommendations . 2765 5.1. Research: observational, computational, and theoretical needs . 2767 5.2. Teaming of research and users: coordinated collaborative environment . 2768 5.3. Collaboration between agencies and communities. 2771 6. Research: observational, numerical, and theoretical recommendations . 2773 7. Concepts for highest-priority research and instrumentation . 2775 7.1. Quantify active-region magnetic structure to model nascent CMEs . 2775 7.2. Coupling of the solar wind to the magnetosphere and ionosphere, and strong GICs . 2776 7.3. Global coronal field to drive models for the magnetized solar wind . 2777 7.4. Quantify the state of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system . 2778 7.5. Observation-based radiation environment modeling . 2778 7.6. Understand solar energetic particles throughout the Sun–Earth system . 2778 8. In conclusion. 2779 Appendix A. Roadmap team and process . 2779 Appendix B. Roadmap methodology: tracing sample impact chains . 2780 Appendix C. State of the art in the science of space weather . 2781 C.1. Achievements . 2781 C.2. Prospects for future work . 2782 C.J. Schrijver et al. / Advances in Space Research 55 (2015) 2745–2807 2747 Appendix D. Research needs for the solar-heliospheric domain . 2783 Appendix E. Research needs for the geospace domain . 2787 E.1. Magnetospheric field variability and geomagnetically-induced currents . 2787 E.2. Magnetospheric field variability and particle environment . 2791 E.3. Ionospheric variability. 2795 Appendix F. Concepts for highest-priority instrumentation . 2797 F.1. Binocular vision for the corona to quantify incoming CMEs . 2797 F.2. 3D mapping of solar field involved in eruptions . 2798 F.3. Strong GICs driven by rapid reconfigurations of the magnetotail . 2798 F.4. Coordinated networks for geomagnetic and ionospheric variability . 2799 F.5. Mapping the global solar field . 2800 F.6. Determination of the foundation of the heliospheric field. 2801 F.7. Auroral imaging to map magnetospheric activity and to study coupling . 2802.
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