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Amphitheater Feasibility Study Brentwood, Ca

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Amphitheater Feasibility Study Brentwood, Ca E.2.a AMPHITHEATER FEASIBILITY STUDY BRENTWOOD, CA SUBMITTED TO City of Brentwood Parks and Recreation Department Attachment: Report from C. H. Johnson Consulting (1911 : Amphitheater Presentation) SUBMITTED BY Johnson Consulting DLR Group DATE August 2019 FINAL DRAFT Packet Pg. 109 E.2.a August 7, 2019 Mr. Bruce Mulder Director of Parks and Recreation 150 City Park Way Brentwood, CA 94513 [email protected] Re: Amphitheater Feasibility Study Dear Bruce, Johnson Consulting, in association with DLR Group, is pleased to submit this draft report regarding the potential for an Amphitheater in Brentwood, CA, adjacent to the Shea Trilogy residential community, and the future sites of John Marsh State Park and Los Medanos College Brentwood Campus. Pursuant to our engagement, this report provides an analysis of the economic and demographic characteristics of defined catchment areas for a new venue; presents case study profiles of comparable venues; summarizes key observations from interviews with key stakeholders and community members; provides program recommendations for a new Amphitheater; presents demand projections; provides a site analysis and design concepts; provides financial projections; and provides an economic and fiscal impact analysis. Johnson Consulting has no responsibility to update this report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of this report. The findings presented herein reflect analyses of primary and secondary sources of information. Johnson Consulting used sources deemed to be reliable, but cannot guarantee their accuracy. Moreover, some of the estimates and analyses presented in this study are based on trends and assumptions, which can result in differences between the projected results and the actual results. Because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, those differences may be material. This report is intended for the clients’ internal use and cannot be used for project underwriting purposes without Johnson Consulting’s written consent. We have enjoyed serving you on this engagement and look forward to providing you with continuing service. Attachment: Report from C. H. Johnson Consulting (1911 : Amphitheater Presentation) Sincerely, DRAFT C.H. JOHNSON CONSULTING, INC. 6 East Monroe Street | Fifth Floor | Chicago, Illinois 60603 | Phone: 312.447.2010 www.chjc.com Packet Pg. 110 E.2.a TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION 1: TRANSMITTAL LETTER SECTION 2: INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 SECTION 3: MARKET ANALYSIS 21 SECTION 4: CASE STUDIES ANALYSIS 36 SECTION 5: INTERVIEWS SUMMARY 51 SECTION 6: PROGRAM RECOMMENDATIONS 56 SECTION 7: DEMAND PROJECTIONS AND DESIGN 59 SECTION 8: OPERATING PROJECTIONS 81 SECTION 9: ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 86 Attachment: Report from C. H. Johnson Consulting (1911 : Amphitheater Presentation) Packet Pg. 111 E.2.a INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Attachment: Report from C. H. Johnson Consulting (1911 : Amphitheater Presentation) Packet Pg. 112 E.2.a Section 2 Introduction and Executive Summary | DRAFT August 2019 Amphitheater Feasibility Study – Brentwood, CA PAGE 1 INTRODUCTION Johnson Consulting, in association with DLR Group, was retained by the City of Brentwood to provide a market analysis assessing the merits of developing an “Amphitheater” on a 31-acre parcel that adjoins a Shea Trilogy residential community and is adjacent to the future sites of John Marsh State Park and Los Medanos College Brentwood Campus. Figure 2 - 1 shows the location of the subject site. Figure 2 - 1 Source: SDG Architects, Johnson Consulting Preliminary plans prepared by SDG Architects identified 1) an outdoor performing arts amphitheater designed with 750 theater seats and additional lawn seating; 2) an outdoor promenade with vendor booths; Attachment: Report from C. H. Johnson Consulting (1911 : Amphitheater Presentation) and 3) a future phase with an indoor 10,000 SF community cultural arts/ events center. The primary focus of our analysis is the outdoor amphitheater and promenade; however consideration is also given to the potential for the market to support an additional cultural arts/ events center. We also analyzed the proposed facility at Bristow Middle School, at a high level, to assess how it will factor in to the overall demand picture in the market. At the time of this report, the City of Brentwood has approximately $7.0 million in funding available for the proposed Amphitheater project. 6 East Monroe Street | Fifth Floor | Chicago, Illinois 60603 | Phone: 312.447.2010 www.chjc.com Packet Pg. 113 E.2.a Section 2 Introduction and Executive Summary | DRAFT August 2019 Amphitheater Feasibility Study – Brentwood, CA PAGE 2 In order to provide an independent assessment of the market opportunity for a new Amphitheater and outdoor promenade on the subject site, our study addresses the following key framework questions: 1. MARKET AND INDUSTRY POTENTIAL: What is the overall potential of the proposed Amphitheater? Which existing and proposed venues will it compete with or complement? Who will utilize the venue and what are their needs, desires and expectation? 2. PROGRAM CONSIDERATIONS: What size should the venue be? What physical attributes should the venue have? How does the proposed program relate to initial concepts and available funding? 3. UTILIZATION: How will the Amphitheater operate from a demand perspective? What types of groups will utilize the venue, how regularly and what level of attendance will they draw? How will attendance grow over the venue’s first 10 years of operation? 4. SITE ANALYSIS: What is the venue’s optimal configuration and location on the site to capitalize on market trends and ensure flexible use of space? How will support amenities be incorporated into the overall design? How many parking spaces will be required to support the recommended program of spaces and projected utilization? 5. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS: How will the facility operate from a financial perspective? How will revenues and expenses change over the first 10 years of operation? 6. IMPACTS: What will the economic impact of the Amphitheater be? What fiscal impact will it have to local and State jurisdictions? METHODOLOGY In order to complete the analyses required to respond to the questions listed above, Johnson Consulting and DLR Group performed the following tasks: 1. Met with Client representatives to discuss their expectations for the project and our study, and toured the proposed site of the Amphitheater. 2. Examined and projected regional economic and demographic trends that may influence demand for an Amphitheater and outdoor promenade. 3. Analyzed the market offerings in the region to determine the best fit for a new facility in Brentwood. Attachment: Report from C. H. Johnson Consulting (1911 : Amphitheater Presentation) 4. Identified and examined relevant regional competitive and comparable facilities. 5. Interviewed various key stakeholders and arts community members who are active in the local marketplace, along with promoters, presents and local user groups, to gauge their insights into the market potential for the proposed venue. 6. Provided recommendations regarding the venue. 6 East Monroe Street | Fifth Floor | Chicago, Illinois 60603 | Phone: 312.447.2010 www.chjc.com Packet Pg. 114 E.2.a Section 2 Introduction and Executive Summary | DRAFT August 2019 Amphitheater Feasibility Study – Brentwood, CA PAGE 3 7. Projected demand for a new Amphitheater, in terms of performances and shows, and attendance. 8. Prepared a site analysis and design concepts for the venue. 9. Utilized proven local, regional, and national formulas to forecast revenue and expense models. 10. Analyzed local spending characteristics and applicable taxes to estimate economic and fiscal impacts. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Brentwood has many of the key demographic and socioeconomic characteristics necessary to support a new Amphitheater. The local economy is diverse and prosperous, with low unemployment and a population with high median incomes and a greater than average propensity to spend on entertainment, including live performances and shows. This is supported by an established and prominent cultural and arts community, including numerous arts groups as well as extensive programming in local schools. This creates synergistic opportunities as an Amphitheater can provide a new performance venue for them, as well as other regional groups, and these groups in turn can provide programming for the Amphitheater with new and larger events. Most importantly, the venue can serve to attract outside events that will help promote Brentwood’s rich arts and cultural fabric. CASE STUDIES ANALYSIS In order to understand the market opportunity for a new Amphitheater in Brentwood, Figure 2 - 2 summarizes the key attributes of a set of best practice venues identified as part of this analysis. While many of these venues are larger than that envisaged for Brentwood, they are considered to provide examples of best practice, from a design perspective and as measured by the relative success. As we move forward to Phase 2 of this study, information about event demand and the financial performance of a sect of comparable venues will provide insight into the general parameters within which a new Amphitheater in Brentwood could reasonably expect to operate. Attachment: Report from C. H. Johnson Consulting (1911 : Amphitheater Presentation) 6 East Monroe Street | Fifth Floor | Chicago, Illinois 60603 | Phone: 312.447.2010 www.chjc.com Packet Pg. 115 E.2.a Section 2 Introduction and Executive Summary
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