The Future of the TV and Video Landscape by 2030 1 the Future of the TV and Video Landscape by 2030
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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 1 The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 More info and the video: www.deloitte.de/de/future-of-tv-video 02 The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 Introduction: a market on the move 04 Scenario thinking 05 The underlying drivers – and how we derived them 07 Expert predictions – what we are certain about 11 Journey into our four scenarios 13 Taking a closer look 23 Methodology 25 Contacts, Authors & Sources 26 03 The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 Introduction: a market on the move “On-demand-services will disrupt the TV and video industry”, “New market players such as Netflix or Amazon will soon replace traditional broadcasters”, “Consumers’ demand for TV and video consumption is fundamentally changing”: established players are being increasingly confronted with horror news about their own positioning within the future TV and video landscape. But will these dramatic predictions really From another perspective, on-demand- This rapidly changing market landscape come true? TV and video are indeed services have quickly changed consumers’ makes future predictions difficult, if not facing much uncertainty, and the extent demand for TV and video consumption. impossible. We therefore adopted a more of change in the sector is hard to foresee. The Deloitte digital media trends survey holistic approach – and we now invite you Streaming services no longer serve as just 2018 states that almost 48% of all US to travel with us to the year 2030 to take a a platform for movies and TV shows, they consumers stream television content every glimpse into four scenarios of the future of are also investing in producing and licensing day or week.1 Likewise in the UK, streaming TV and video. Our scenario approach does their own content. This places them in video services have gained in importance, not aim to predict the most likely outcome, direct competition with the traditional TV already 41% of all consumers purchased but to illustrate what could plausibly happen and video industry. At the same time, TV such a service in the UK.2 Even in the more in the world of TV and video and how channels and media organizations are conservative German TV market, 44% of the today’s market players might adapt to deal starting their own on-demand offerings. population make use of subscription-based with the many changes and uncertainties Also, large content producers are setting up videos-on-demand (SVoD) at least once a along the way. their own streaming services. week.3 With the success of VoD, consumers increasingly expect relevant content accessible at any time, in any place, and in the format that best fits their needs. Fig. 1 – Average weekly video content consumption (in hours) on Total onsuers 2 23 22 22 20 17 17 15 16 15 8 0 7 8 Live broadcast TV Streaming video apan US erany rance rail UK hina 1 Digital Media Trends Survey 2018 (United States) ; 2 Deloitte’s Digital Democracy Survey 2018 (global); 3 Deloitte Media Consumer Survey 2018 (Germany) 04 The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 Scenario thinking The highly dynamic TV and video market work in different potential futures. It is thus is characterized by emerging new market necessary to generate a set of scenarios, offerings, disruptive digital players, and each of them describing a specific, plausible rapidly changing consumer requirements. world of the future which substantially In this uncertain environment, the strategic differs from the others. steps of relevant stakeholders will be crucial factors influencing the future market The objective of scenario design thus is landscape. What they decide today will have not to identify future events, but rather to major effects on their future consumer emphasize relevant forces that move the relationships, the market structure, and future in different directions. Scenarios technological standards. are narratives of alternative future environments in which today’s decisions Conventional strategic analysis seldom might play out: they are neither predictions manages well in such highly uncertain nor strategies. By making the driving forces environments, whereas scenario design visible, strategic planners can consider them is one approach that can look beyond the and adapt their strategy accordingly. usual planning horizon of three to five years. While predicting the future is clearly impossible, scenario design isolates the risks and opportunities of certain strategic issues. It helps in develop robust strategies that will 05 The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 Scenario design is an approach that can look beyond the usual planning horizon of three to five years. It helps develop robust strategies that will work in different potential futures. 06 The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 The underlying drivers – and how we derived them The foundation of our scenarios is a Traditional TV and non-linear content comprehensive set of underlying drivers that potentially shape the future of the TV offerings will coexist. New and existing and video industry. We therefore conducted expert interviews and made use of our players will reposition along the value unique external environment analysis based on Natural Language Processing algorithms. chain in a partly consolidated market. The resulting drivers were then clustered into social, technological, economic, environmental, and political factors (STEEP) and rated with regard to their degree of uncertainty and their impact on the TV and video industry (see Figure 1). 07 The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 Fig. 2 – Driver evaluation according to degree of impact and degree of uncertainty h Importance g Demand for Market entry i Content Distribution TV Broad- Average of sport/ H Level of exclusive content on-demand of tech / of TV and Importance aggregator advertising caster time in national broadcasting content internet video event of live spending role spent with giants content licensing content Relative importance TV/ video on TV of linear broadcasting in contrast Level of intellectual to non-linear/ on-demand services Number of property regulation Influence Cooperation Ownership of content Role of OTTs of between players sports rights Broadcaster producers Introduction of Content aging revenue streams Net Quality media regulation rights viewership neutrality In-car of digital TV for online/ mobile relevancy infrastructure advertising pure offerings Global measurement media market Regulation Advertising Owner of the consolidation Convergence of of media Producer focus advertising advertising company relationship National ownership Availability markets one of interest Advertising Level of economic of All-IP sales market Capability climate media Requirements approach regulation of data for employees analytics networks Piracy Sensitivity regarding in media Ability of AI to Convenience of data privacy influence Legal technological progress Cybersecurity Digitalization audience Digital restrictions capability of of video/ TV Attractiveness in national general production Polarization of Advertising Demand for of national advertising Diversification public processes advertising payment in-home, large- Mobile video sector of players into sales screen entertainment relevancy for talents in the TV/ video and brand Data Attractiveness market of national Innovative monetization Ability of AI Demand for social Demand video sector capability Size of tools to content/ user-generated for micro- for talents of video supplier Vertical predict content content payments suppliers integration m ecosystems acceptance Impact u f i o d e e National Video/ TV Length and Disruptive Content e M Development Education Transmission/ Length of Placement r content format of changes focus g consumption of cord- on media/ Frequency program/ of advertising e quotas behavior video in release D cutters video use content advertising windows in schools Degree of Device Fiction Dependence Stock TV as Global New interde control focus of TV Fan/ Focus of enabler media/ pendence of local market follower pay-TV categories for social content between productions pressure focus of video interaction regulation devices social media on subsidies Pilot and TV selection Relevance of global audience Cloud Multi- in Channel Demand User Ratio of Level of operations Networks for new multitasking pay-per-use child forms of story- Focus vs. protection telling Corporate of user subscription engagement Price of social payments techno- Integrated responsi- logical online bility devices shopping Application of Demand Degree of Holo- blockchain- Political for personalized graphic based influence augmented/ content TV Tracking on the content Cross- Existence virtual with national trading screen/ of the reality Market entry of built-in- video platforms transmedia European offerings totally new players monitor market sensors Union w o L Low Medium High Degree of Uncertainty Technology Society Environment Politics Economics 08 The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 In this way we identified the two relevant further approach. The 23 driving forces in questions, “What will the player types of driving forces for our scenarios: the ‘zone of interest’ have subsequently structure look like?” and “Who will been tested by measuring their inter- have access to customers?”, illustrated in • Drivers with a high impact and with a dependencies and relevance to each other, Figure 3. clearly predictable evolution (see the and clustered according to their degree