Key Developments in Iran, May 2018
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The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’S Revolutionary Guard
The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard SAEID GOLKAR AUGUST 2021 KASRA AARABI Contents Executive Summary 4 The Raisi Administration, the IRGC and the Creation of a New Islamic Government 6 The IRGC as the Foundation of Raisi’s Islamic Government The Clergy and the Guard: An Inseparable Bond 16 No Coup in Sight Upholding Clerical Superiority and Preserving Religious Legitimacy The Importance of Understanding the Guard 21 Shortcomings of Existing Approaches to the IRGC A New Model for Understanding the IRGC’s Intra-elite Factionalism 25 The Economic Vertex The Political Vertex The Security-Intelligence Vertex Charting IRGC Commanders’ Positions on the New Model Shades of Islamism: The Ideological Spectrum in the IRGC Conclusion 32 About the Authors 33 Saeid Golkar Kasra Aarabi Endnotes 34 4 The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi Executive Summary “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] has excelled in every field it has entered both internationally and domestically, including security, defence, service provision and construction,” declared Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, then chief justice of Iran, in a speech to IRGC commanders on 17 March 2021.1 Four months on, Raisi, who assumes Iran’s presidency on 5 August after the country’s June 2021 election, has set his eyes on further empowering the IRGC with key ministerial and bureaucratic positions likely to be awarded to guardsmen under his new government. There is a clear reason for this ambition. Expanding the power of the IRGC serves the interests of both Raisi and his 82-year-old mentor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. -
Country Report Iran March 2017
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Iran Generated on November 13th 2017 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. -
Blood-Soaked Secrets Why Iran’S 1988 Prison Massacres Are Ongoing Crimes Against Humanity
BLOOD-SOAKED SECRETS WHY IRAN’S 1988 PRISON MASSACRES ARE ONGOING CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY Amnesty International is a global movement of more than 7 million people who campaign for a world where human rights are enjoyed by all. Our vision is for every person to enjoy all the rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other international human rights standards. We are independent of any government, political ideology, economic interest or religion and are funded mainly by our membership and public donations. © Amnesty International 2017 Cover photo: Collage of some of the victims of the mass prisoner killings of 1988 in Iran. Except where otherwise noted, content in this document is licensed under a Creative Commons © Amnesty International (attribution, non-commercial, no derivatives, international 4.0) licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode For more information please visit the permissions page on our website: www.amnesty.org Where material is attributed to a copyright owner other than Amnesty International this material is not subject to the Creative Commons licence. First published in 2017 by Amnesty International Ltd Peter Benenson House, 1 Easton Street London WC1X 0DW, UK Index: MDE 13/9421/2018 Original language: English amnesty.org CONTENTS GLOSSARY 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 METHODOLOGY 18 2.1 FRAMEWORK AND SCOPE 18 2.2 RESEARCH METHODS 18 2.2.1 TESTIMONIES 20 2.2.2 DOCUMENTARY EVIDENCE 22 2.2.3 AUDIOVISUAL EVIDENCE 23 2.2.4 COMMUNICATION WITH IRANIAN AUTHORITIES 24 2.3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 25 BACKGROUND 26 3.1 PRE-REVOLUTION REPRESSION 26 3.2 POST-REVOLUTION REPRESSION 27 3.3 IRAN-IRAQ WAR 33 3.4 POLITICAL OPPOSITION GROUPS 33 3.4.1 PEOPLE’S MOJAHEDIN ORGANIZATION OF IRAN 33 3.4.2 FADAIYAN 34 3.4.3 TUDEH PARTY 35 3.4.4 KURDISH DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF IRAN 35 3.4.5 KOMALA 35 3.4.6 OTHER GROUPS 36 4. -
Rouhani: Delivering Human Rights After the Election
Rouhani: Delivering Human Rights June 2017 After the Election Iranian President’s Pathway to Fulfill His Promises Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) New York Headquarters: Tel: +1 347-689-7782 www.iranhumanrights.org Rouhani: Delivering Human Rights After the Election Copyright © Center for Human Rights in Iran Rouhani: Delivering Human Rights After the Election Rouhani’s pathway to fulfill his promises: Utilize his power, negotiate the system, hold rights violators responsible, engage and empower civil society June 2017 The re-election of President Hassan Rouhani on May 19, 2017 was due in large part to the perception by the Iranian citizenry that his government would do more to improve human rights in Iran than his rivals—an outcome clearly desired by a majority of voters. During Rouhani’s campaign rallies, not only did he make explicit references to issues of political and social freedom and promises to uphold such freedoms in his second term, his supporters also repeatedly made clear their demands for improvements in human rights. Despite Iran’s tradition of giving the incumbent a second term, Rouhani’s re-election was uncertain. Many Iranians struggling with high unemployment and other economic problems did not see any improvement in their daily lives from Rouhani’s signature achievement—the nuclear deal and easing of interna- tional sanctions. Yet even though the other candidates offered subsidies and populist proposals, and Rouhani’s economic proposals were modest, he won by a large margin—far greater than his win in 2013. In addition to his rejec- tion of populist economics, Rouhani was the only candidate that talked about human rights—and the more he focused on this issue, the more his support coalesced and strengthened. -
Tightening the Reins How Khamenei Makes Decisions
MEHDI KHALAJI TIGHTENING THE REINS HOW KHAMENEI MAKES DECISIONS MEHDI KHALAJI TIGHTENING THE REINS HOW KHAMENEI MAKES DECISIONS POLICY FOCUS 126 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY www.washingtoninstitute.org Policy Focus 126 | March 2014 The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including pho- tocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2014 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050 Washington, DC 20036 Cover: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds a weapon as he speaks at the University of Tehran. (Reuters/Raheb Homavandi). Design: 1000 Colors CONTENTS Executive Summary | V 1. Introduction | 1 2. Life and Thought of the Leader | 7 3. Khamenei’s Values | 15 4. Khamenei’s Advisors | 20 5. Khamenei vs the Clergy | 27 6. Khamenei vs the President | 34 7. Khamenei vs Political Institutions | 44 8. Khamenei’s Relationship with the IRGC | 52 9. Conclusion | 61 Appendix: Profile of Hassan Rouhani | 65 About the Author | 72 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EVEN UNDER ITS MOST DESPOTIC REGIMES , modern Iran has long been governed with some degree of consensus among elite factions. Leaders have conceded to or co-opted rivals when necessary to maintain their grip on power, and the current regime is no excep- tion. -
INSS Insight No. 1482, June 6, 2021 from Election to Selection: Iran's Path to a New President
INSS Insight No. 1482, June 6, 2021 From Election to Selection: Iran's Path to a New President Raz Zimmt The decision by Iran’s Guardian Council to disqualify the vast majority of the candidates in the coming presidential elections, including former speaker of the Majlis Ali Larijani, and Eshaq Jahangiri, First Vice-President under President Rouhani, in effect leaves the hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi as the only candidate with real chances of winning the elections. This decision is another reflection of the regime's efforts to strengthen the conservative hegemony in the political elite, especially in advance of the struggle over the succession of Iran's leadership. The regime's blatant intervention in the election process indicates that it is determined to maintain conservative control of power centers even at the cost of further undermining public confidence, and that it estimates that it is capable of suppressing any possible protest. On May 25, 2021, following the screening of all the presidential candidates, Iran’s Guardian Council announced it had approved seven final candidates, out of the 592 candidates (including 40 women) who registered for the elections scheduled for June 18. That the vast majority of the candidates were disqualified came as no surprise. Since the beginning of the 1980s, only a few candidates have passed the screening process under the 12-member Guardian Council, half of whom are clerics appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and half of whom are jurists appointed by the Judiciary Chief and approved by the Majlis. This time too, it was expected that the Council would disqualify any candidate it saw as someone who might undermine conservative hegemony in Iranian politics. -
The Relationship Between the Supreme Leadership and Presidency and Its Impact on the Political System in Iran
Study The Relationship Between the Supreme Leadership and Presidency and Its Impact on the Political System in Iran By Dr. Motasem Sadiqallah | Researcher at the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) Mahmoud Hamdi Abualqasim | Researcher at the International Insti- tute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah) www.rasanah-iiis.org WWW.RASANAH-IIIS.ORG Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................... 3 I- The Status and Role of the Supreme Leadership and the Presidency in the Iranian Political System ................................................................................. 4 II- The Problems Involving the Relationship Between the Supreme Leader and the Presidency .............................................................................................. 11 III- Applying Pressure Through Power to Dismiss the President .....................15 IV- The Implications of the Conflict Between the Supreme Leader and the Presidency on the Effectiveness of the Political System ................................. 20 V- The Future of the Relationship Between the Supreme Leader and the President ........................................................................................ 26 Conclusion .................................................................................................. 29 Disclaimer The study, including its analysis and views, solely reflects the opinions of the writers who are liable for the conclusions, statistics or mistakes contained therein -
Leadership Divided? Nima Gerami
The Domestic Politics of Iran’s Nuclear Debate LEADERSHIP DIVIDED? NIMA GERAMI LEADERSHIP DIVIDED? The Domestic Politics of Iran’s Nuclear Debate NIMA GERAMI The Washington Institute for Near East Policy www.washingtoninstitute.org Policy Focus 134 | February 2014 The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2014 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050 Washington, DC 20036 Cover: Tehran newspaper headlines following signing of the Joint Plan of Action in Geneva. Design: 1000 Colors Contents Acknowledgments | v Executive Summary | vii 1. Introduction | 1 2. Limits on Iran’s Nuclear Debate: Secrecy and Self-Censorship | 3 3. Contextualizing Nuclear Decisionmaking: The Key Stakeholders | 9 4. The Political Landscape: Elite Factionalism and the Nuclear Debate | 19 5. Critical Junctures: Internal Divisions and Nuclear Policy Shifts | 31 6. Conclusion: Lessons Learned | 40 About the Author | 42 Figures Fig 1. Overview of Nuclear Decisionmaking in Iran | 11 Table 1. Formal Members of the Supreme National Security Council | 12 Acknowledgments I would like to express my gratitude to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, particularly Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, and Mehdi Khalaji, for their encouragement, insights, and support during the preparation of this study. -
Middle East, North Africa
MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Iran: Conflicting Assessment of China Talks OE Watch Commentary: Iran’s new “strategic partnership” agreement with China made international headlines last July but, in the months since, negotiations have been mired in the details. The negotiations began during the administration of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013) but, as implied in the excerpt of this article from Donya-e Eghtesad, perhaps Iran’s top financial newspaper, may outlast his successor Hassan Rouhani, whose second term will end in 2021. That Donya-e Eghtesad highlights the divergence between Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and his deputy for economic affairs reaffirms the pattern in which Iran’s financial papers dryly skewer the Iranian government’s official positions without comment by juxtaposing inconsistencies. While the excerpt suggests a lack of consensus on drafts that must be worked through before anything can be finalized, the article also suggests that the threat of U.S. sanctions has also Iran President Hassan Rouhani and Chinese President Xi Jinping sign cooperation agreements in Beijing, 11 June 2018. slowed China’s willingness to deal with Iran. This in turn suggests Source: Islamic Republic News Agency, https://img9.irna.ir/d/r2/2020/07/16/3/157216967.jpg that while Tehran highlights its partnership with China as a means to counter the United States, the view from Beijing is more nuanced and appears to prioritize economic opportunity above strategic factors. End OE Watch Commentary (Rubin) “The only thing that can be done now is to wait.” Source: “Mozakirat-e Iran-Chin Motavaqaf Nashodeh Ast (Iran-China Talks Have Not Stopped),” Donya-e Eghtesad, 5 November 2020. -
Middle East, North Africa
MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Iran: Sanctions Don’t Impact Military Spending OE Watch Commentary: It is not often that senior Iranian military leaders sit down with the Western press but on 24 February, Hossein Dehghan did just that with the Financial Times from his office in Tehran. Dehghan is a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) air force officer whom President Hassan Rouhani appointed to lead the ministry of defense in his first cabinet. He currently serves as an advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Iranian press widely covered the interview in which Dehghan emphasized that the Iranian military budget had continued to grow despite US sanctions, as reported in the excerpted passage from Mehr News. His statement, which seems to telegraph to the West that US sanctions will not achieve their aims, seems at cross purposes with Iran’s other frequent information operations theme, that sanctions have undercut the health of Iranians because Hossein Dehghan sits for an interview, with a portrait of the late Qassem Soleimani in the background. Source: https://media.mehrnews.com/d/2020/02/24/3/3393218.jpg of their inability to purchase necessary medicines. After all, if Iran has several extra billion dollars with which to fund the IRGC and other military organizations, that money might easily be utilized to purchase humanitarian goods through the Swiss humanitarian channel. Iran’s increased military budget raises questions about what the Iranian military hopes to do with its enhanced budget. Dehghan did insist that Iran would neither reconsider its support to Hezbollah and other regional proxies nor would it stop work on its ballistic missile programs. -
Petroleum: an Engine for Global Development
OPEC th International Seminar Petroleum: An Engine for Global Development 3–4 June 2015 Hofburg Palace Vienna, Austria www.opec.org Reasons to be cheerful It was over quite quickly. In fact, the 165th Meeting whilst global oil demand was expected to rise from of the OPEC Conference finished two hours ahead of 90m b/d to 91.1m b/d over the same period. In ad- Commentary schedule. Even the customary press conference, held dition, petroleum stock levels, in terms of days of for- immediately after the Meeting at the Organization’s ward demand cover, remained comfortable. “These Secretariat in Vienna, Austria on June 11 and usually numbers make it clear that the oil market is stable and a busy affair, was most probably completed in record balanced, with adequate supply meeting the steady time. But this brevity of discourse spelled good news growth in demand,” OPEC Conference President, Omar — for OPEC and, in fact, all petroleum industry stake- Ali ElShakmak, Libya’s Acting Oil and Gas Minister, holders. As the much-heralded saying goes — ‘don’t be said in his opening address to the Conference. tempted to tamper with a smooth-running engine’. And Of course, there are still downside risks to the glob- that is exactly what OPEC’s Oil and Energy Ministers al economy, both in the OECD and non-OECD regions, did during their customary mid-year Meeting. They de- and there is continuing concern over some production cided to leave the Organization’s 30 million barrels/ limitations, but with non-OPEC supply growth of 1.4m day oil production ceiling in place and unchanged for b/d forecast over the next year, in general, things are the remainder of 2014. -
Trump Again Certifies Iran's Compliance with JCPOA
Iran Daily extends deep condolences on the martyrdom anniversary of Imam Ja’far Sadeq Nematzadeh inaugurates Iran’s (PBUH), the sixth Shia Imam. Our next issue largest lead, zinc mine 4 will be out on July 22, 2017. Number 5683 ● Wednesday July 19, 2017 ● Tir 28, 1396 ● Shawwal 24, 1438 ● Price 5,000 Rials ● 12 Pages ● www.irandailyonline.ir Trump again certifies Iran’s Zarif: US must change its overall compliance with JCPOA sanctions policy EU: JCPOA Joint Commission 2 to meet in Vienna on July 21 Washington has to reassess its approach of issu- ing sanctions against other countries as they are a liability for the US, said Iranian Foreign Minister Macron puts France top of 3 Mohammad Javad Zarif. During a press conference held in New York ‘soft power’ rankings: Survey with President of the Council on Foreign Rela- tions Richard Haass on Monday, Zarif noted that the US will become the prisoner of its own sanc- AP tions if it does not alter is current policies, Press TV reported. Zarif: Iran may withdraw from deal in case of US violations Zarif stressed that imposing sanctions on other countries usually does not yield a positive out- come. Last month, US Senate voted for a bill to im- S President Donald Trump’s admin- notify Congress every 90 days of Iran’s the ceiling. pose new sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile istration on Monday declared that compliance with the Joint Comprehensive “We wanted that agreement to be the program, alleged support for terrorism, and human UIran was complying with its nuclear Plan of Action (JCPOA).