Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon Marinus) Habitat and Population Models in Michigan River Networks: Understanding Geomorphic Context and Boundaries
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Sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) habitat and population models in Michigan river networks: Understanding geomorphic context and boundaries by Thomas Matthew Neeson A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Natural Resources and Environment) in The University of Michigan 2010 Doctoral Committee: Associate Research Scientist Sara A. Adlerstein, Co-Chair Professor Michael J. Wiley, Co-Chair Professor Steven J. Wright Associate Research Scientist Rick L. Riolo Adjunct Associate Research Scientist Edward S. Rutherford Acknowledgements I first wish to thank my advisors and co-chairs Drs. Michael Wiley and Sara Adlerstein. They have been mentors, guides, critics and patient editors of my work. My committee members Drs. Rick Riolo, Edward Rutherford, and Steven Wright have always offered helpful feedback and a broader perspective on my research. Rick Riolo deserves special thanks for guidance on all things computer modeling. I have been surrounded by a diverse and talented group of fellow graduate students. I particularly wish to thank students who were faithful participants in the Adlerstein/Wiley lab group meetings, the Hooper Seminar series, and the Complex Systems Advanced Academic Workshop series. I presented various pieces of preliminary research at each of these venues, and the commentary from other students was invaluable. I learned equally much from listening to students present their own research. Beth Sparks-Jackson and Lori Ivan reviewed drafts of Chapters 2 and 3. Emily Silverman of the USFWS provided important guidance during early stages of this research. Jeff Slade of the USFWS provided access to and helpful interpretation of both the habitat and larval fish survey data. Computing resources for Chapters 3 and 4 were provided by the Center for the Study of Complex Systems at the University of Michigan. This project was partially funded by The Great Lakes Fishery Commission and The University of Michigan Rackham Summer Research Grant. The Paul Welch Fellowship in Limnology allowed me to prioritize research for the first four years of my graduate program. I was supported in my fifth and final year by two graduate student instructor positions from the School of Natural Resources and Environment. A unique note of thanks must go to my wife Molly. Her support and perspective always kept me moving forward. ii Table of Contents Acknowledgements .....................................................................................................ii List of Figures.............................................................................................................v List of Tables ............................................................................................................vii Abstract....................................................................................................................viii Chapter 1: Introduction ...................................................................................................1 Sea lamprey life history...............................................................................................3 Sea lamprey in the Great Lakes ...................................................................................4 Dissertation Contents ..................................................................................................5 References...................................................................................................................8 Chapter 2: Towards a Process Domain-Sensitive Sea Lamprey Habitat Model for Michigan Rivers............................................................................................................12 Abstract.....................................................................................................................12 Introduction...............................................................................................................13 Methods ....................................................................................................................16 Modeling Strategy .................................................................................................16 Statistical Approach and Analysis..........................................................................18 Larval Sea Lamprey Habitat Data..........................................................................19 Geomorphic Covariates .........................................................................................19 Results ......................................................................................................................22 Model Performance ...............................................................................................22 Habitat Patterns in Tree Models.............................................................................22 Geomorphic Influences on Habitat.........................................................................23 Dataset Partitions...................................................................................................24 Discussion.................................................................................................................25 Performance of the Models....................................................................................25 Inference from Tree Splits .....................................................................................26 Relationship Between Habitat and Covariates........................................................27 Management Applications .....................................................................................28 References.................................................................................................................31 Chapter 3: River Network Structure Affects Sea Lamprey Distribution .........................51 Abstract.....................................................................................................................51 Introduction...............................................................................................................52 Methods ....................................................................................................................54 Computational Model............................................................................................54 Decision Rules ......................................................................................................55 Experimental Framework ......................................................................................57 Parameterization....................................................................................................58 Random River Network Experiments ....................................................................58 Muskegon River Experiments................................................................................60 iii Results ......................................................................................................................62 Random Network Experiments..............................................................................62 Muskegon River Experiments................................................................................63 Discussion.................................................................................................................63 Implications for Ecology and Management............................................................64 Model Behavior and Path-Dependent Feedbacks ...................................................66 Model Applications ...............................................................................................67 References.................................................................................................................69 Chapter 4: The Watershed as Place: Sea Lamprey as a Case Study in Defining Boundaries for Population Analyses..............................................................................83 Abstract.....................................................................................................................83 Introduction...............................................................................................................84 Methods ....................................................................................................................86 Computational Model............................................................................................87 Adult sea lamprey..................................................................................................87 Larval Sea Lamprey ..............................................................................................88 Model Networks and Habitat .................................................................................89 Experimental Framework ......................................................................................91 Question 1: How does the availability of larval habitat influence previously- established relationships between river network structure and larval distribution?..91 Question 2: How do network structure and the availability of larval habitat influence the correlation between larval abundance and amount of habitat in a reach? ..........92 Question 3: How do network structure and the availability of larval habitat influence the size of the larval population in a river?.............................................................93