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Great Growth Stocks Monday 4 March 2019 Great growth stocks The Bill Shorten threat to franking credits and tax refunds for retirees in SMSFs has led to some ‘experts’ suggesting it’s time to change the way these super trustees invest. But I say: DON’T listen to them, unless your current investment strategy is wrong! At least wait to see if Labor wins first and then see what the Senate thinks of this ‘tough love’ shown to those retirees not getting a sniff of a pension. In the Report today, I explain why I hold this view. Also in the Report today, Paul Rickard is happy to announce that after just two months, the market is up by 10%. And our portfolios have followed suit! In Paul’s second review for 2019, he look at how our income and growth portfolios performed in February. Sincerely, Peter Switzer Inside this Issue 02 Don’t listen to those who want you to change Don’t listen by Peter Switzer 04 Portfolios up 10% after two months Up 10% in 2 months! by Paul Rickard 07 5 great growth stocks from reporting season by James Dunn 11 Buy, Hold, Sell – What the Brokers Say Don’t listen to those 25 downgrades versus seven upgrades by Rudi Filapek-Vandyck who want you to 15 Shares that go up or down because of the Federal change election by Peter Switzer Sectors and shares that are likely to be impacted 02 by Julia Lee 17 My “HOT” Stock – Automotive Holdings (AHG) I like Automotive Holdings (AHG) by Maureen Jordan Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before Switzer Super Report is published by Switzer Financial Group Pty Ltd AFSL No. 286 531 acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the Level 4, 10 Spring Street, Sydney, NSW, 2000 individual's objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek T: 1300 794 893 F: (02) 9222 1456 appropriate professional advice. Don’t listen to those who want you to change by Peter Switzer The Bill Shorten threat to franking credits and tax me think that a lot of retirees could trust Gerry for 5% refunds for retirees in self-managed super funds exposure to their super nest egg, while holding say (SMSFs) has led to some ‘experts’ suggesting it’s 20 good income payers. I’m not advising that you time to change the way these super trustees invest. should, but it got me thinking that the next time the But I say: DON’T listen to them unless your current market has a silly ‘hissy fit’ sell off on the back of a investment strategy is wrong! Trump disturbance or any other sideshow, a stock like HVN, which went below $3 on the pre-Christmas And anyway, I’d wait to see if Labor wins first and share slide, might be worth thinking about. then let’s see what the Senate thinks of his ‘tough love’ shown to retirees with an SMSF and not getting And this is the kind of thinking that retirees in SMSFs a sniff of a pension. The Senate might insist that have to embrace as they potentially kiss their tax retirees receiving $10,000 in tax refunds be allowed refund goodbye! to get their tax refunds. I’ve been asked if I was worried about my Switzer Sure, I advocate more tweaking to an investment Dividend Growth Fund (SWTZ) in a ‘Bill Shorten as strategy that was a ‘set and forget’ portfolio of PM’ world. In fact, I think Bill makes my fund and my income-generating assets created to maximise the fund manager Shawn Burns (who thinks about and tax refund but there’s no need for a wholesale looks for great dividend-paying stocks 24/7) even change in approach and a new set of assets to be more valuable. acquired. We know that too many SMSF trustees were too Ironically, Bill Shorten and his proposed changes, exposed to the banks and Telstra and that’s why we while being grossly unfair to retirees who aren’t in created SWTZ, to get investors more diversified when receipt of huge tax refunds, will force the investors they went looking for stocks that pay income. This affected to become more engaged with their chart shows how risky it is to only have five stocks, investments. And Shorten’s changes will force many even if they are historically identified as reliable to become more diversified into more stable income income payers. payers, at a time when volatility is increasing, as we enter the likely final phase of this great stock market The dominant white line shows SWTZ, which has bull market. been constructed to give mainly income with a bit of allowance for capital gain. If Shawn sees a stock that That said, Bill won’t be making me give up on might not be great for dividends but it has been a income-paying stocks. However, he will make me victim of a crazy sell-off, he might try for some extra even more committed to finding those companies out capital gain, while tolerating a 2-3% dividend. But there that have been paying great dividends for years mainly his brief is to select good dividend-payers and but might not be top 100 companies. use his market knowledge to harvest dividends. We all could do this but we have to be across the timings After interviewing Gerry Harvey (who pointed out that for buying stocks at the right time to be Johnny on the Harvey Norman (HVN )was paying a dividend of 8% spot for those precious dividends. plus before franking credits) last Thursday, it made Monday 04 March 2019 02 The chart shows SWTZ versus CBA (green), ANZ (red), WBC (orange), NAB (blue) and TLS (light blue). And while SWTZ suffered from the Royal Commission and the APRA effects on banks, it’s more diversified holdings delivered what diversification should. But look closer at the chart and see what happened if you had 25% in US stocks, 25% in Aussie stocks, 25% in bonds and 25% in cash/term deposits. Bill’s anti-tax refunds policy should make you think about your income diversification but adding to your You would’ve made $150,437 from US shares, portfolio stocks that pay dividends is still a good $113,292 from local stocks, $77,621 from strategy. cash/deposits and $71,260 from bond funds. Interestingly, like one last hurrah before the world So $10,000 distributed into these four investments changes for retiree investors, the AFR told us that netted you $412,609, which is only a bit short of being “the earnings season just ended looks set to give in local stocks. But with Aussie stocks only, you back to shareholders a record $84 billion in dividends would have had a lot more concentration risk! for the financial year.” I know Bill’s franking credits play is unreasonable for However, it’s also time to think about what you can a lot of SMSF retirees and I think the Senate will get from fixed income. make him introduce a cap of $10,000 or maybe more but let’s use this threat and turn it into an opportunity. And once again, being diversified makes a lot of wise Being more diversified by both being in more stocks investor sense. that pay dividends, having more overseas stocks and being in other asset classes are all good ideas that The Shorten threat makes it timely to look at bond financial planners have been recommending for ages. funds, floating rate notes and fixed interest style investments. The big problem here is that most Important: This content has been prepared without investors feel unsure about these assets and don’t taking account of the objectives, financial situation or like them because they assume their returns are needs of any particular individual. It does not pretty low. And while they do offer less than shares, constitute formal advice. Consider the they can surprise you over time. appropriateness of the information in regard to your circumstances. Here’s my favourite chart, which shows what happened to $10,000 from 1970 to 2009, just after the stock market had crashed 50% in 2008. If you’d stayed and reinvested your profits in the equivalent of an index fund for the ASX 200, that $10,000 rolled over into $453,542. And that was one year after the GFC! But have a look at what bonds did. They snowballed from $10,000 to a pretty impressive $285,039. Monday 04 March 2019 03 Portfolios up 10% after two months by Paul Rickard A buoyant Wall Street and a recovery in financial stock investment size of $3,000; stocks helped the Australian share market post a gain our stock universe is confined to the ASX 100. of 6% in February. After just two months, the market This has important implications for the growth is up by 10%. And our portfolios have followed suit! portfolio, because the stocks with the best medium term growth prospects will often In the second review for 2019, we look at how our come from outside this group (the so called income and growth portfolios performed in February. ‘small’ caps); we avoid stocks from industries where there The purpose of these portfolios is to demonstrate an is a high level of exogenous risk, such as approach to portfolio construction.
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