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Climate Change Impacts CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Josh Pederson / SIMoN NOAA Matt Wilson/Jay Clark, NOAA NMFS AFSC NMFS Southwest Fisheries Science Center GULF OF THE FARALLONES AND CORDELL BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARIES Report of a Joint Working Group of the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries Advisory Councils Editors John Largier, Brian Cheng, and Kelley Higgason EXECUTIVE SUMMARY June 2010 Executive Summary On global and regional scales, the ocean is changing due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and associated global climate change. Regional physical changes include sea level rise, coastal erosion and flooding, and changes in precipitation and land runoff, ocean- atmosphere circulation, and ocean water properties. These changes in turn lead to biotic responses within ocean ecosystems, including changes in physiology, phenology, and population connectivity, as well as species range shifts. Regional habitats and ecosystems are thus affected by a combination of physical processes and biological responses. While climate change will also significantly impact human populations along the coast, this is discussed only briefly. Climate Change Impacts, developed by a joint working group of the Gulf of the Farallones (GFNMS) and Cordell Bank (CBNMS) National Marine Sanctuary Advisory Councils, identifies and synthesizes potential climate change impacts to habitats and biological communities along the north-central California coast. This report does not assess current conditions, or predict future changes. It presents scientific observations and expectations to identify potential issues related to changing climate – with an emphasis on the most likely ecological impacts and the impacts that would be most severe if they occur. Climate Change Impacts provides a foundation of information and scientific insight for each sanctuary to develop strategies for addressing climate change. These strategies will outline priority management actions for the next 10 years to address the impacts of climate change specific to the site, its communities, and the region. Key Issues ⇒ Observed increase in sea level (100 year record at mouth of San Francisco Bay) ⇒ Expected increase in coastal erosion associated with changes in sea level and storm waves ⇒ Observed decrease in spring runoff of freshwater through San Francisco Bay (decreased Sierra snowpack) ⇒ Observed increase in precipitation variability (drier dry years, wetter wet years) ⇒ Observed increase in surface ocean temperature offshore of the continental shelf (50 year record) ⇒ Observed increase in winds driving coastal upwelling of nutrient-rich waters and associated observed decrease in surface ocean temperature over the continental shelf (30 year record) ⇒ Observed increase in extreme weather events (winds, waves, storms) Expected decrease in seawater pH, due to uptake of CO by the ocean ⇒ 2 ⇒ Observed northward shift of key species (including Humboldt squid, volcano barnacle, gray whales, bottlenose dolphins) ⇒ Possible shift in dominant phytoplankton (from diatom to dinoflagellate blooms) A Changing Ocean Environment ⇒ Potential for effects of climate change to be compounded by parallel environmental changes associated with local human activities 2 Physical Effects of Climate Change The observed rise in sea level at the mouth of San Francisco Bay over the last century is 20 cm, and this rise is expected to continue. The State of California is using a projection of 40 cm rise in sea level by 2050 and 140 cm by 2100 for planning purposes. However, the most recent sea level rise analysis projects 75 to 190 cm respectively. The rise in sea level exacerbates coastal flooding, shoreline erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater aquifers, inundation of wetlands and estuaries, and threatens cultural and historic resources as well as infrastructure (see 3.4 Sea Level Rise). As a result of rising sea level, together with more intense precipitation/runoff events and an increase in extreme wave and storm conditions, an increase in coastal erosion is expected. If sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100, scientists project that the total erosion area for the five counties along the study region will reach nearly 50 km2. Coastal habitats may be directly affected by erosion through habitat loss, or indirectly via human responses such as coastal armoring, beach nourishment, or planned retreat (see 3.5 Coastal Erosion). Climate-related changes in precipitation and runoff are primarily related to reduced snowpack due to warmer winter storms. Reduced Sierra snowpack will result in stronger winter runoff events and reduced spring runoff through San Francisco Bay. In smaller coastal watersheds, as well, more extreme winter precipitation events are expected. Further, it is projected that there will be a greater variability in annual precipitation during the 21st century (i.e., drier dry years and wetter wet years). In turn, these changes in runoff can be expected to lead to increased flooding of coastal lowlands, erosion of estuarine habitats, increased delivery of watershed material to the ocean, expanded plume areas, and increased nearshore stratification (see 3.2 Precipitation and Land Runoff). Surface ocean temperatures have increased in the North Pacific, offshore of the north- central California continental shelf. This increase in temperature has significant effects on water column structure (i.e., stratification), sea level rise, and ocean circulation patterns. While sea temperature also appears to have increased in shallow bays, estuaries and sheltered nearshore locations, waters over the north-central California continental shelf have cooled over the last 30 years (by as much as 1oC in some locations) due to stronger and/or more persistent upwelling winds during spring, summer and fall (see 3.6.1 Temperature; 3.5 Coastal Upwelling). Stronger alongshore winds are expected as a result of an increasing difference in land-ocean atmospheric pressure associated with an increasing difference in land-ocean temperature as climate warms. These stronger winds push surface waters away from the coast more rapidly and force a stronger upwelling of deep, cold, nutrient-rich waters along the coast. This upwelled supply of nutrients is the foundation of the high biological productivity of the ocean in the study region. Both the strength of upwelling winds and the variability in winds affect the amount of primary production available, and the amount delivered to coastal ecosystems rather than offshore ecosystems. Enhanced upwelling results in less phytoplankton availability in coastal waters and a greater but more diffuse supply of phytoplankton to offshore waters. Further, there is preliminary evidence that upwelling will also be more persistent, extending into the fall – but results from analyses of changes in the start of the upwelling season (“spring transition”) are mixed (see 3.5 Coastal Upwelling). 3 In addition to the increase in average coastal winds during spring, summer, and fall, data from the San Francisco tide gauge (from 1858 to 2000) show an increase in intense winter storms since 1950, consistent with an observed increase in the largest waves (see 3.3.2 Waves). Coastal flooding events that were previously 1-in-100 events are now projected to occur with a probability of 1-in-10 years (see 3.1 Atmosphere). Coastal waters are expected to become more acidic as pH is lowered in response to increased concentration of carbon dioxide in ocean waters. While data and model studies are insufficient to be certain how pH will change in the study region, this phenomenon is critical, as it will decrease the availability of chemical building blocks for marine life with shells and skeletons made out of calcium carbonate. Ocean acidification leads to decreased shell growth in key species such as sea urchins, mussels, oysters, abalone, and crabs, thus making the animal more susceptible to predation, as well as decreased skeleton production of deep sea corals and hydrocorals. As deeper water tends to be more acidic already, deepwater corals such as the hydrocorals located at Cordell Bank may be one of the first to experience deleterious effects of acidification. Also, of particular concern are the larval and juvenile stages of these organisms, which may be more susceptible to ocean acidification due to their small size. In addition, there is concern for negative effects on shell-building plankton at the base of the food web (see 3.6.2 Ocean Acidification; 4.1 Physiology; 5.3 Invertebrates). In addition to trends in the physical climate, natural climate fluctuations occur in association with El Niño and other phenomena, e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The combination of climate change trends with this natural variability may create new extreme conditions. For example, high waves that occur during El Niño events are likely to be more extreme when combined with higher sea level and increased wave heights due to climate change. Similarly, during the positive phase of the PDO, the trend for warmer weather with increased rain, runoff and waves will be enhanced; whereas climate-change trends will be temporarily alleviated during the negative phase of the PDO, yielding periods in which climate change appears to have stalled only to be followed by years of apparently rapid climate change (see 3.0 Physical Effects of Climate Change). Marine Species Respond Physical changes in sea level, winds, waves, temperature, pH, and runoff may influence a variety of critical biotic processes, such as metabolic rates,
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