Number 20, Spring/Summer 2011 Seeing Russia Straight David Satter deteriorating domestic conditions Oleg Kalugin between democracy and dictatorship Svante Cornell coveting the “Post-Soviet Space” Kevin Ryan the path to strategic cooperation Richard Weitz the hurdles for NATO-Russian BMD Ilan Berman Losing the struggle against radical Islam Gal Luft Moscow’s energy strategy and the West Andrei Shoumikhin Surveying Russia’s arms sector Giorgi Baramidze the ongoing war on Georgia Challenges to American Primacy featuring the Honorable Jim Talent & Amitai Etzioni • Unintended consequences of the “Arab Spring” • A dwindling defense budget • China’s geopolitical rise • Law and the military Perspective $7.95 US $12.50 CAN 1 1 Ambassador Ryan Crocker Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq www.securityaffairs.org 0 7 4 4 7 0 5 7 8 8 2 6 1307 New York Ave., NW • Suite 200 • Washington, D.C. 20005 We’re almost there... Help us reach 1,000 FANS! Suggest JINSA Support JINSA’s Mandate: to your friends Securing America, Strengthening Israel JOIN JINSA ON facebook Network with like-minded people Contribute to the discussion: Read & Comment on JINSA Reports www.facebook.com/jewishinstitute Ilan Berman Editor James “Jim” Colbert Deputy Editor Jennifer Keech Graphic Design & Layout James P. Cetrone Web Development Allison Krant Marketing Manager Tom Neumann Publisher Editorial Board Jonathan Kislak, Chairman; A. John Adams; Amb. John Bolton; Dr. Stephen Bryen; Dr. Armeane Choksi; Adm. Leon “Bud” Edney, USN (ret.); Dr. Joshua Muravchik; Dr. Michael G. Rapp; Maj. Gen. Sidney Shachnow, USA (ret.); R. Adm. Robert Smith, III, USN (ret.); Amb. Chase Untermeyer MANUSCRIPTS SHOULD BE SENT TO: 1307 New ADVERTISING: Please contact the Marketing York Ave., NW, Suite 200, Washington, Manager, Allison Krant, at ([email protected]) D.C. 20005. The Editor will consider all for information on availability and ad rates. manuscripts received, but will assume no REPRINTS AND PERMISSIONS: Write: The Jour- responsibility regarding them and will nal of International Security Affairs, Reader return only materials accompanied by Services, 1307 New York Ave., NW, Suite appropriate postage. Facsimile submis- 200, Washington, D.C. 20005. Fax: (202) sions will not be accepted. 667-0601. PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. © 2011 Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs. All rights reserved. No part of this magazine may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted in any form or by any means, without prior written permission from the publisher. EDITOR’S NOTE: The opinions expressed in The Journal of International Security Affairs (ISSN 1532-4060) are those of the author(s) alone and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs. The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA), Inc., is an independent, non- profit, non-partisan, non-sectarian educational organization established in 1976 to fulfill a two-fold mandate: To educate the American public about the threats and dangers facing our country and our global allies; to explain why a mobile, technologically superior military is vital to America’s security; to provide leadership on issues affecting American national security and foreign policy; to explain to Americans and others the importance of U.S. security cooperation with like-minded democratic partners around the world and to explain the key role Israel plays in the Mediterranean and Middle East as an outpost of liberty, a linchpin of stability and a friend and ally of the United States. The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, Inc., incorporated in the District of Colum- bia, is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. FNM_Airforce_JINSA01_27.pdf 1 1/27/10 11:01 AM the symbol of C M Y excellence CM You are ready to serve at a moment’s notice. No MY matter when or where, you fulfill your commitment CY to excel in all you do. CMY You count on products and systems that also have K to perform to the highest standards. The people behind them ensure they do. Every time. Whenever you see our symbol, be assured there are thousands who share your commitment to excellence – the employees of Finmeccanica. For more information visit www.finmec.com Number 20, Spring/Summer 2011 From the Publisher Tom Neumann 3 Editor’s Note Ilan Berman 5 Seeing Russia Straight State of Fear David Satter 7 From bad to worse in Putin and Medvedev’s Russia. Russia’s Future Imperfect Maj. Gen. (KGB) Oleg Kalugin (ret.) 15 Russia isn’t headed toward democracy. But it isn’t headed back to the Soviet era either. No Reset in the Post-Soviet Space Svante E. Cornell 19 Russia’s empire might be gone, but it hasn’t been forgotten in Moscow. Preventing the Unthinkable Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan, USA (ret.) 33 Moscow and Washington must work together to prevent nuclear attack. Dialogue of the Deaf Richard Weitz 43 Don’t let the diplomatic niceties fool you. On missile defense, Russia and NATO remain worlds apart. The Caliphate Comes Home Ilan Berman 53 Two decades on, the verdict is in: Russia is losing its own “war on terror.” Heavy Fuel Gal Luft 63 The promise and peril of Russia’s global energy drive. Guns and Butter Andrei Shoumikhin 73 The shape of Russia’s troublesome arms trade. Tbilisi in the Crosshairs Vice Prime Minister Giorgi Baramidze 81 Russia’s war on Georgia is enduring, and ideological in nature. Challenges to American Primacy Shifting Sands Amitai Etzioni 87 Absent American resolve, the Islamic Republic of Iran will inherit the Middle East. The Dangers of Defunding Defense Jim Talent & Mackenzie Eaglen 99 America can’t remain a global power if it no longer funds a world-class military. Our China Challenge Chuck DeVore 109 Needed: some clear thinking about the implications of China’s rise. Tangled Up in the War on Terror Maj. Gen. Sid Shachnow, USA (ret.) 117 Grappling with the changing nature of conflict, and its legal implications. Perspective Bridging the Divide 125 An Interview with Ambassador Ryan Crocker Dispatches TALLINN: A Nordic Leader MP Marko Mihkelson, Estonia 129 SINGAPORE: India’s Stake in Afghanistan Shanthie Mariet D’Souza 131 TASHKENT: Russia’s Energy Challenges Vladimir Paramonov 133 Book Reviews Staying the Course Micah N. Levinson 135 Stephen Kinzer’s misguided quest to remake America’s alliances in the Mideast. Toxic Tradecraft Paul Janiczek 139 Russia’s favorite political weapon, as exposed by Boris Volodarsky. Learning to Live With the Bomb George Michael 141 John Mueller challenges the conventional wisdom surrounding nuclear arms. The Next Battleground James Colbert 145 Robert Kaplan’s convincing case for why the Indian Ocean region matters. From the Publisher For Americans, the recent turmoil in the Middle East has raised a multitude of questions about our foreign policy—challenging questions that go to the very soul of our national character. One concerns the objectives of our foreign policy. Are we just another country seek- ing our own benefit and advantage, or do we have a more idealistic mission to export freedom, equality, justice and democracy to the world? I suspect most Americans believe it to be the latter. We are therefore justifiably horrified when we are incon- veniently reminded that some of our client states are, in effect, dictatorships. And, when pressed, we quickly seek the moral high ground by disassociating ourselves from them. Our abrupt abandonment of Egypt’s long-serving strongman, Hosni Mubarak, is only the most recent example of this trend. The word “revolution” brings to the American mind a vision of hungry, downtrod- den people rising up against some brutal force in pursuit of “liberty, fraternity and equality.” It’s worth remembering, however, that those three words were authored by the same people who subsequently brought France the “reign of terror.” Vladimir Ilych Lenin, too, couched the Russian revolution in terms of a dramatic change that would equalize wealth between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie. “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs” was the revolu- tionary slogan. And the Russian variation of “fraternity” was the term “comrade.” Later, George Orwell put it in perspective in Animal Farm when he wrote: “All ani- mals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.” These were followed by such revolutionary leaders as Franco, Castro, and the Aya- tollah Khomeini, all of whom captured America’s imagination—and its sympathy. And let’s not forget that Gaddafi came to power because he unseated King Idris, and Nasser liberated Egypt from King Farouk. All these revolutions have two things in common: empty promises and sloganeer- ing. They are not revolutions for the people, although they are certainly by the people. There is usually some organization behind these revolutions pulling the strings and taking advantage of the hopes and fears of the disenfranchised. So what makes us so sure this time that the rioting in Bahrain’s Pearl Square or Cai- ro’s Tahrir Square is in fact the true voice of the people and not that of the Muslim Brotherhood, Iran, the military or the socialists? Maybe they are not, but we should approach them with some skepticism and require more than a bit of validation. After all, history has taught us many lessons about “popular” revolutions. Most we have lived to regret. Tom Neumann Publisher THE JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS 3 WE SEPARATE I.T. NETWORKING. FROM I.T. NOTWORKING. © 2011 Lockheed Martin Corporation #1 PROVIDER OF SECURE I.T. SYSTEMS THIS IS HOW TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT It starts with a thorough understanding of our customers’ missions. Add to that decades spent managing critical systems for agencies across all sectors of the government.