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Interim Annual Assessment Report-2018 Page 3 of 66 ECMWF COPERNICUS REPORT Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Interim Annual Assessment Report for 2018 European air quality in 2018 Issued by: NILU /Leonor TARRASON Date: 19/08/2019 Ref: CAMS71_2019SC1_D1.1.1.-2018_201908_IAR2018V2 This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). The activities leading to these results have been contracted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, operator of CAMS on behalf of the European Union (Delegation Agreement signed on 11/11/2014). All information in this document is provided "as is" and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose. The user thereof uses the information at its sole risk and liability. For the avoidance of all doubts, the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has no liability in respect of this document, which is merely representing the authors view. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Contributors NILU Leonor Tarrasón Paul David Hamer Cristina Guerreiro INERIS Frederik Meleux Laurence Rouïl CAMS71_2019SC1_D1.1.1._2018 – Interim Annual Assessment Report-2018 Page 3 of 66 Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service CAMS71_2019SC1_D1.1.1._2018 – Interim Annual Assessment Report-2018 Page 4 of 66 Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Table of Contents 1. Introduction 9 2. Air Quality Indicators in 2018 12 2.1 Ozone in 2018 12 2.1.1 Meteorological Characterisation 12 2.1.2 Ozone Health Indicators 14 2.1.3 Ozone Vegetation Indicator 17 2.2 Nitrogen Dioxide in 2018 19 2.2.1 Seasonal Variations 19 2.2.2 Nitrogen Dioxide Health Indicators 19 2.3 PM10 in 2018 22 2.3.1 Meteorological Characterization 22 2.3.2 PM10 Health Indicators 24 2.4 PM2.5 in 2018 26 2.4.1 Meteorological Characterization 26 2.4.2 PM2.5 Health indicators 27 3. Pollution Episodes in 2018 29 3.1 Rationale for Episode Identification 29 3.2 Identified Pollution Events in 2018 29 3.3 Origin of Pollution Episodes 32 3.3.1 Ozone Episode in July and August 2018 34 3.3.2 PM Episodes in February and October 2018 39 3.3.3 Dust Episodes in April, August and October 2018 52 3.3.4 Forest Fires in July 2018 60 4. Conclusions 61 5. References 64 CAMS71_2019SC1_D1.1.1._2018 – Interim Annual Assessment Report-2018 Page 5 of 66 Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Executive Summary This Interim Annual Assessment Report (IAAR) documents the status of air quality in Europe during 2018. It presents timely reference information on air pollution indicators for background air quality for the main regulatory pollutants (ozone, NO2, PM10 and PM2.5). The report characterizes the year climatologically with respect to previous years, and gives details on the occurrence and origin of nine (9) selected large-scale episodes. The report is elaborated on the basis of non-validated up-to-date observations gathered by the European Environment Agency (EEA) and modelled data from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring CAMS Services (CAMS). The year 2018 was a new ozone year and the recorded number of ozone exceedances in 2018 was higher than in previous years. This is related to the meteorological conditions predominant over Europe and also to the spatial density and distribution of monitoring stations reporting exceedances. What is exceptional for 2018 is that the area affected by high ozone levels is further north than in previous years, extending from Central Europe to the north of Germany and southern Scandinavia. According to the Copernicus European State of Climate 2018, 2018 was the third warmest year on record in Europe. It follows the clear warming trend that temperatures in Europe have shown over the last forty years, with the past four years (2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018) recorded as the four warmest. The year began with weak La Niña conditions, which are typically associated with lower temperatures, but, after March, Europe experienced the warmest late spring, summer and autumn temperatures on record. Consequently, Europe experienced high ozone values in 2018 with ozone health indicator values well above previous years and comparable only to the extreme years of 2015 and 2010. For SOMO35, the elevated ozone levels over all seasons resulted in higher values of the SOMO35 indicator than in any of the previous years. Europe experienced also high AOT40 values in 2018, well over the target value of 18 000 μg.m-3.hours. These record high ozone values in Central Europe caused crop damages and severely affected husbandry, even in southern Scandinavia. The year 2018 was a dry year over northern Europe and wetter than average year in southern Europe. The Northern Mediterranean region experienced many heavy rainfall events in 2018. Southwest Europe experienced one of the two wettest springs since 1950 while Southeast Europe had one of the six wettest summers of the last 70 years. Still, large parts of Europe (in particular Northern and Central Europe) also experienced exceptional heat and drought conditions through late spring and summer of 2018. There was an extensive period of drought in northern Europe, with 80% less than normal precipitation during the main growing and harvesting periods. These high temperatures and dry conditions increased the risk for vegetation damage and forest fires. A series of wildfires in Greece, during the 2018 European heat wave, began in the coastal areas of Attica in July 2018 with as many as 102 people confirmed dead. The fires were the second-deadliest wildfire event in the 21st century. Wildfires reached also an unprecedented extent in Sweden, with over 25 000 hectares burned, in what was considered to be the most serious wildfire event in the country’s modern history. While 2018 was an extreme year for ozone in northern Europe, for other pollution components and regions, the 2018 levels were similar to previous years. The annual mean concentrations of CAMS71_2019SC1_D1.1.1._2018 – Interim Annual Assessment Report-2018 Page 6 of 66 Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service background PM10 and PM2.5 over most regions in Europe were similar to those of 2016, 2015 and 2014. The background values for nitrogen dioxide in 2018 were not significantly different from those of previous years. We have studied the evolution and origin of nine (9) different air pollution events in 2018: one for ozone, three for PM, three associated to Saharan dust intrusions and two with wildfires. All the episodes are characterised by a high number of exceedances of EU quality objective and limit values for ozone and PM10 and of WHO guidance value for PM2.5. This year we have focused on explaining the capabilities of two recently added policy products, namely the CAMS Air Control Tool and the chemical speciation in the CAMS Source-Receptor (SR) calculations. These two new policy relevant products are particularly appropriate to characterise the origin of pollution and identify the long-range transport components. They can support the analysis of the extent of different natural and anthropogenic contributions to background air concentrations over Europe, which can be a key issue when exceedance of the PM10 limit values are reported by the member States according to the Ambient Air quality Directive 2008/50/EC (AAQD). There were a significant number of ozone episodes in 2018. We have selected the one that took place from 30th July to 9th August because it is the event that registered the highest number of exceedances, due to its persistence over 12 days and its broad spatial extent. Traffic and industrial emissions were as expected the main anthropogenic contributors to this ozone episode. The extent of the biogenic contribution and boundary condition and existence of titration effects from local sources are also well illustrated in the results from the CAMS SR calculations. We also can trace the influence of the various chemical regimes that characterize atmosphere chemistry in Europe when analyzing how the emission reductions planned under the NEC2030 scenario would affect the ozone episode. th The three selected PM episodes are very different in nature. The first selected PM episode from 7 to 10th February began in Central Europe, with the highest values over Poland and developed over time to include also large areas in Germany, Denmark and the Baltic region. At the same time, a Saharan dust intrusion took place over the Eastern Mediterranean region reaching Turkey and the Black Sea. This episode had a significant long-range component, but it had also significant local contributions, as indicated by the fact that emissions from residential heating, including wood and coal combustion dominated the PM levels, especially in Southern and Eastern Europe. Examples for Warsaw and Ljubljana from the CAMS SR service show the balance between the long-range and local contributions to background air and helps identify the origin of the long-range transport contribution from different countries in these cities. The second PM episode studied occurred from 21st to 28th February and was mainly driven by residential heating emissions which are always very difficult to quantify. The third selected PM episode took place from 21st to 26th October 2018 and was characterized by a combination of a sea-salt episode over the Atlantic Coast and a Saharan dust intrusion over the Mediterranean area and southeastern Europe. In 2018, there were three major dust storm events affecting the European continent: from 22nd to 27th April affecting the Iberian Peninsula and the western Mediterranean basin, from 1st to 4th August, also over the Iberian Peninsula and from 16th to 20th October in an event affecting the central and eastern Mediterranean basin. We also studied the forest fire events of 23rd and 24th July in Greece CAMS71_2019SC1_D1.1.1._2018 – Interim Annual Assessment Report-2018 Page 7 of 66 Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service th th and the wildfires from 17 to 18 July in Sweden, because both contributed to elevated PM2.5 concentrations in their surrounding areas.
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