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How does ecology determine risk?

Sarah Randolph

Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK

LDA, Leicester, July.2008

Tick species found in the UK

Small acuminatus Water voles Ixodes apronophorus (hole nesting) Ixodes arboricola Birds (cliffs & buildings) Ixodes caledonicus Foxes, (in lairs) Birds (small passerines) Ixodes frontalis (in nests) Ixodes hexagonus Birds (sand martins) Ixodes lividus All vertebrates in reach Birds (marine, coastal) Ixodes rothschildi Birds (marine, coastal) Ixodes unicavatus Ixodes ventalloi Ixodes vespertilionis Sea birds Ixodes uriae Small rodents (in burrows) Livestock reticulatus Tortoises Hyalomma aegyptium Birds (small migrants) Hyalomma m. marginatum , , birds Haemaphysalis punctata (kennels & houses) Pigeons Argas reflexus Bats Argas vespertilionis Sea birds maritimus Adult Ixodes ricinus

1 Examples of tick-borne parasites from UK and

DISEASE - medical/veterinary n VIRUSES Tick-borne Encephalitis Europe UK n burgdorferi s.l. N hemisphere (Lyme borreliosis) Francisella tularensis N hemisphere () n RICKETTSIA Anaplasma phagocytophilum UK, Europe (Tick-borne fever) ( ) Rickettsia conori S Europe (Med spotted fever) Coxiella bourneti () Europe n PIROPLASMS UK, Europe (redwater) UK, Europe

Adult Ixodes ricinus

Ticks as blood feeders Tick mouthparts (chelicerae and hypostome), ventral view

2 Tick mouthparts, front dorsal view

Chelicera for cutting thro’ skin

Hypostome for sucking up blood

Backwardly pointing teeth for gripping

Ticks as vectors No wings n Very immobile n Only feed once per life stage - , nymph, adult

3 Ixodid ticks - triphasic life cycle Oviposition on ground Transovarial transmission • c.1% larvae infected 1 female 2000 eggs Vertebrate host 1 mm

10 nymphs 100 larvae • Temperature-dependent delay in transmission • Transstadial maintenance • High tick mortality Development on ground

Seasonal activity of Ixodes ricinus in Dorset, UK Larvae 7oC 10oC 1500

1000

500

0 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112

500 Nymphs

300

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 Ticks counted per 100 m Ticks counted per 100 m Adults 60

40

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 1998 1999

4 Ixodes ricinus life cycle with typical reproductive rates, mortality rates and host relationships Competent to transmit Borrelia Reproduction

1 female + 1 male sheep 2,000 eggs c. 20% survival pheasants c. 5% survival blackbirds 10 nymphs 100 larvae rodents

c. 10% survival

Biotic variability in systems

q Genetic diversity of the complex ÿ B. burgdorferi s.s. - arthritis - ÿ B. afzelii - cutaneous disorders - mammals ÿ B. garinii - neurological symptoms - birds ÿ B. valaisiana - birds ÿ B. lusitaniae - lizards?

q Host diversity ÿ Feed different fractions of tick populations ÿ Differential transmission competence for each Borrelia genospecies

Deer feed adult ticks, but cannot transmit Borrelia

5 Epidemiology What determines variation in risk in space and time?

Increasing laboratory-confirmed cases of Lyme disease in England and Wales Estimated 1,000-2,000 additional cases diagnosed on clinical symptoms without lab-confirmation

Annual case ?? numbers Acquired in UK

Acquired abroad 18%

Passive Enhanced Improved reporting: surveillance: surveillance: specialised LD tests voluntary questionnaires offered only by the reporting sent to Lyme Diagnostic Unit, of lab-confirmed clinicians Southampton cases reporting lab- confirmed cases

6 What sort of change in which conditions? Differential increase in national mean TBE incidence from 1993

Slovenia

TBE incidence per 100,000 population

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Network of independent but synergistic biological and non-biological factors Examples of data from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Czech Republic.

employees LT Reduced Environmental Socio-economic industrial awareness? transition pollution output LV Global brightening ?? Decline of agriculture Higher Sudden increase unemployment in Spring temperature SI LV

1.Mar-20.Apr ES 21-30.Apr SI CZ

CZ LV CZ

More wealth & leisure SI

LV TBE cases/100,000 population wooded Increased co-feeding transmission of TBEV More hosts field crops LV Greater human for adult ticks exposure to ticks More infected ticks in LV CZ

LV Regeneration of Increase in shrubs populations (transmission hosts)

More ticks

updated from PLoS ONE 2007 e500

7 Correlations between socio-economic factors and increases in TBE incidence across CEE countries

LT LT R2 = 0.533 R2 = 0.716

Relative increase in mean TBE incidence PL PL from 1985-90 to 1993-98

LV LV EE EE SK SI CZ SI SK CZ HU HU

Perceived poverty 2002* % of total expenditure spent on food, 1999*

n Shift from correlations in time to correlations in space - substantiates causality

Šumilo et al (2008) Revs Med Virol 18, 81-95 *Data from Heyns 2005, Ann Rev Sociol 31, 163-97

What are risk factors and who is at greatest risk?

q Survey data from Latvia, 2001:

n Unemployment and low income - significant factors pre-disposing people to m visit forests frequently m not to be protected by TBE vaccination

n Increased risk of infection with TBE virus

Šumilo, D et al (2008) Vaccine 26, 2580-8 Data source: SKDS population survey, 2001

8 Human-tick contact rates influenced by human behaviour and weather

q Mushroom or berry collecting is most common purpose of frequent visits n Principal reason for women, older, less educated, unemployed, pensioners, low earners n Risk of tick bite highest for mushroom collectors (x 2.8) and forest workers (x 4)

Latvia:Latvia tick monitoring site, Tireli, Riga county Ticks per km: Nymphs Adults

2002 2003

No. tick bites reported to Public Health Agency, Riga

2002 2003 n Mushrooms grow best when it rains n Dry weekends following week with heavy rainfall (l): tick bites more common when weather favours mushroom harvest, independent of tick abundance

Šumilo, D et al (2008) Vaccine 26, 2580-8 Data source: Public Health Agency of Latvia

Other tick-borne infections of in UK transmitted by I. ricinus

q Louping ill ÿ caused by virus of tick-borne encephalitis group ÿ common infection of sheep and grouse ÿ 34 human cases recorded between 1934 and 1991

q Human Granulocytic Ehrlichiosis ÿ caused by rickettsia Anaplasma phagocytophylum ÿ same microbe that causes sheep-borne fever ÿ 2-7% I. ricinus ticks infected; >50% roe deer sero-+ve

q ÿ Babesia divergens causes red-water in cattle ÿ Babesia microti circulates amongst rodents ÿ sporadic human cases recorded - splenectomy is risk factor ÿ increasing incidence in USA

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