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Morning Insight Morning Insight NOVEMBER 2, 2018 % Chg News Highlights 1-Nov 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices Buoyed by a pick-up in consumption demand during the festival season, SENSEX Index 34,432 (0.0) (5.7) (8.2) collections from the goods and services tax crossed Rs 1 trillion in NIFTY Index 10,380 (0.1) (5.7) (8.5) October. (Mint) NSEBANK Index 25,324 0.7 (0.2) (8.2) The Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) fears “significant default” from NIFTY 500 Index 8,773 0.2 (4.3) (9.1) large non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and housing finance CNXMcap Index 17,339 0.9 0.3 (8.3) BSESMCAP Index 14,356 1.1 (0.3) (13.7) companies (HFCs) in the next 6 weeks if additional liquidity support is not World Indices forthcoming. (ET) Dow Jones 25,381 1.1 (5.2) 0.2 Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to Nasdaq 7,434 1.8 (7.1) (4.7) 53.1 in October from 52.2 in September. This is the 15th month of FTSE 7,115 (0.2) (4.8) (6.1) continuous expansion. (BL) NIKKEI 21,688 (1.1) (9.5) (2.5) Hangseng 21,688 (1.1) (9.5) (2.5) The US on Thursday revoked duty-free concessions on import of at least Shanghai 25,416 1.7 (4.0) (6.0) 50 Indian products, mostly from handloom and agriculture sectors, reflecting the US Governments tough stand on international trade-related Value traded (Rs cr) 1-Nov % Chg Day Cash BSE 3,327 (25.6) issues. (ET) Cash NSE 37,169 (7.4) The Cabinet on Thursday approved promulgating an Ordinance to amend Derivatives 1,817,982 72.5 the Companies Act, to promote ease of doing business as well as ensure Net inflows (Rs cr) 31-Oct MTD YTD better compliance levels. (Mint). FII (400) (27,623) (42,685) The government’s 3% stake sale in Coal India was over-subscribed and Mutual Fund 2,076 17,971 106,226 is expected to fetch at least Rs 50 bn to the exchequer. (Mint) Nifty Gainers & Losers Price Chg Vol 1-Nov (Rs) (%) (mn) The State Bank of India has moved the National Company Law Board to Gainers withdraw insolvency proceedings against Uttam Galva Steel. (ET) Yes Bank Ltd 204 8.5 69.2 Carmakers such as Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai have been forced to Hindalco Ind 231 4.9 9.5 increase discounts ahead of festive season to beat the sombre market Axis Bank 602 3.4 16.1 and woo buyers. High fuel costs, hiked insurance rates and lending rates Losers have impacted sales at the retail level. (ET) HCL Tech 1,009 (4.4) 2.0 Dr Reddy's 2,462 (3.2) 1.4 Deepak Nitrite commenced operations at its phenol and acetone plant. Tech Mahindra 721 (3.1) 4.0 The plant has the capacity to manufacture 200,000 MTPA of phenol and Advances / Declines (BSE) 120,000 MTPA of its co-product acetone. (ET) 1-Nov A B T Total % total Supreme Court suggested that Indraprastha Gas to take over the supply Advances 295 679 59 1,033 100 of natural gas in Gurugram from Haryana City Gas Distribution Ltd. as an Declines 134 350 55 539 52 ongoing concern so that the entire dispute can be resolved amicably. (BS) Unchanged 2 20 10 32 3 Triveni Turbine board approves share buyback proposal of 66.7 lakh Commodity % Chg shares representing 2.02 percent of the paid-up equity share capital at Rs 1-Nov 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Crude (US$/BBL) 72.5 (0.5) (14.5) (1.3) 150 per share, aggregating to Rs 1 bn. (BS) Gold (US$/OZ) 1,233.5 1.5 2.4 2.0 Tata Consultancy Services acquired London-based digital design studio Silver (US$/OZ) 14.7 3.5 (0.1) (4.2) ‘W12 Studios’. This deal will strengthen digital and creative design Debt / forex market 1-Nov 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths capabilities and will be part of TCS Interactive division. (ET) 10 yr G-Sec yield % 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.7 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation will shut its crude unit in Mumbai Re/US$ 73.5 74.0 72.9 68.4 refinery in January-March 2019 for 10 days. (ET) Nifty Inox Leisure board approved issuing 64 lakh shares equity shares on a 11,800 preferential basis to its promoter Gujarat Fluorochemicals at a floor price 11,300 Rs 241.71 per share. (BS) 10,800 What’s Inside 10,300 Result Update: GHCL, Mahindra Holidays, AIA Engineering, Blue Dart 9,800 Express Ltd, Cochin Shipyard Ltd Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express, IE = Source: Bloomberg Indian Express, BL = Business Line, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Stock Exchange, MC = Moneycontrol Kotak Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by the Private Client Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the Institutional Equities Research Group of Kotak Securities Limited. NOVEMBER 2, 2018 Result Update GHCL Stock Details PRICE RS.222 TARGET RS.270 BUY Market cap (Rs mn) : 21714 52-wk Hi/Lo (Rs) : 358 / 189 GHCL’s Q2FY19 numbers were above our estimates in all parameters. Soda Face Value (Rs) : 10 Ash segment continued with its strong performance, supported by higher 3M Avg. daily vol (Nos) : 182,737 volume and strong realisation. This, coupled with, sequential improvement in Shares o/s (mn) : 98 Source: Bloomberg home textile segment due to changes in customer mix and improvement in operating efficiency, resulted in outperformance. Financial Summary Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19E FY20E Key Highlights Revenue 29,432 32,724 35,579 The Inorganic chemical segment (excluding trading sales) reported 31.5% Growth (%) 4.7 11.2 8.7 EBITDA margin vs 31% in 1QFY19. The sequential jump in operating EBITDA 6,061 6,928 7,548 EBITDA margin (%) 20.6 21.2 21.2 performance was driven by a 15,000 tonnes jump in volume and Rs600/tonne PAT 3,564 3,561 4,030 increase in soda ash realisation. Including trading sales EBITDA margin was EPS 36.6 36.8 41.6 largely flat at 27.4%. EPS Growth (%) 12.1 10.9 11.3 Textile segment operating performance was marginally up sequentially. BV (Rs/share) 165 197 233 Dividend/share (Rs) 5.0 5.0 5.0 However, EBITDA margin expanded from 6.7% in 1QFY19 to 10.1% in 2QFY19, ROE (%) 22.1 18.7 17.9 supported by a change in customer mix in home textile and higher spreads in ROCE (%) 17.0 18.3 17.9 spinning. P/E (x) 6.1 6.0 5.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.7 5.0 4.5 Management expects the global soda ash market to grow at 2.5% annually P/BV (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0 and demand likely to remain strong in India (grew 11% in FY18E). Globally, in Source: Company, Kotak Securities - PCG Tukey all 5 lines are fully operational and production is fully absorbed by the market. Shareholding Pattern (%) (%) Sep-18 Jun-18 Mar-18 Valuation & outlook Promoters 18.9 19.0 19.1 GHCL is confident about the prospects for the Soda Ash segment, underpinned FII 16.4 13.9 17.0 by healthy demand from India, which is likely to sustain over the next year. Backed DII 14.9 11.5 7.0 by firm realisation, we expect soda ash business to deliver strong performance Others 48.8 55.7 57.0 going ahead as well and the recovery in textile business is expected over the Source: Company medium to long term. At CMP, the stock is trading at 6.0x/5.3x FY19E/FY20E Price Performance (%) earnings. We continue to maintain Buy rating, with a revised target price of Rs270 (%) 1M 3M 6M (earlier Rs330), valuing it at 6.5x FY20E earnings (earlier 8x). GHCL Ltd 3.0 (10.5) (19.8) Nifty (5.7) (8.5) (3.3) Quarterly performance table Source: Bloomberg Particulars (Rs Mn) 2QFY19 2QFY18 % YoY 1QFY19 % QoQ Sales 8,354 7,143 17.0 7,546 10.7 Price chart (Rs) Cost of Material consumed 3,595 3,240 3,302 360 Utility Cost 1,242 908 1,095 330 300 Man Power Cost 520 441 497 270 Other Operating Expenses 1,245 1,196 1,150 240 EBITDA 1,752 1,358 29.0 1,502 16.7 210 EBITDA % 21.0 19.0 19.9 180 Depreciation 289 250 274 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 EBIT 1,463 1,108 1,228 Source: Bloomberg Interest 344 347 343 Other Income 35 31 21 Profit before Tax 1,155 791 906 Tax 371 258 290 Profit After Tax 784 533 47.1 616 27.3 PAT % 9.4 7.5 8.2 Jatin Damania [email protected] Source: Company, Kotak Securities – Private Client Research +91 22 6218 6440 Kotak Securities – Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2 NOVEMBER 2, 2018 Higher volume and realisation supported soda ash margin Soda Ash business margin during the quarter (excluding trading sales) improved to 31.5%, despite the increase in input costs.
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