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Today's Top Research Idea Market Snapshot 23 July 2021 Motilal Oswal values your support in the Today’s top research idea Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2021 for India Research, Sales, Corporate Access and UltraTech Cememnt: Margin outlook continues to improve Trading team. We request your ballot. Expansions provide strong growth visibility UltraTech Cement (UTCEM) continued to improve its costs and margins in 1QFY22; it reported the highest ever EBITDA/unit of INR1,536/t (+8% YoY) during the quarter. Coupled with volume growth of 47% YoY, this led to 59% YoY growth in EBITDA. Market snapshot Market share gains should continue, aided by the ongoing 20mtpa expansion Equities - India Close Chg .% CYTD.% program, which should drive a 13% volume CAGR over FY21–24E. Sensex 52,837 1.2 10.7 We estimate a 15%/26% CAGR in consolidated EBITDA/PAT over FY21–23E, Nifty-50 15,824 1.2 13.2 Nifty-M 100 27,538 1.1 32.1 driven by a 13% volume CAGR, better realizations, lower operating costs, and Equities-Global Close Chg .% CYTD.% lower interest costs. S&P 500 4,367 0.2 16.3 The valuation is reasonable at 13.7x FY23E EV/EBITDA – a 10% discount to its Nasdaq 14,685 0.4 13.9 last five years’ average. We value UTCEM at 16x FY23E EV/EBITDA to arrive at FTSE 100 6,968 -0.4 7.9 DAX 15,515 0.6 13.1 TP of INR8,770. Reiterate Buy. Hang Seng 10,007 1.8 -6.8 Nikkei 225 27,548 0.0 0.4 Commodities Close Chg .% CYTD.% Research covered Brent (US$/Bbl) 73 6.8 43.2 Gold ($/OZ) 1,807 -0.2 -4.8 Cos/Sector Key Highlights Cu (US$/MT) 9,418 1.2 21.5 Almn (US$/MT) 2,469 0.8 25.1 UltraTech Cement Margin outlook continues to improve Currency Close Chg .% CYTD.% Topline better than expected; commentary suggests Hindustan Unilever USD/INR 74.5 -0.2 1.9 improving momentum USD/EUR 1.2 -0.1 -3.6 Hindustan Zinc Earnings outlook remains strong, but priced in USD/JPY 110.1 0.3 6.7 Below our estimate; higher RM cost keeps margin under YIELD (%) Close 1MChg CYTD chg Bajaj Auto 10 Yrs G-Sec 6.2 0.01 0.3 pressure 10 Yrs AAA Corp 6.7 0.02 0.1 Havells India Strong operating performance led by B2B businesses Flows (USD b) 22-Jul MTD CY21 Revenue beat in both India and EU; ; lower tax boosts Mahindra CIE FIIs -0.03 -0.85 7.27 profitability DIIs 0.13 0.96 0.39 Ceat Op performance in-line; encouraging recovery since June Volumes (INRb) 22-Jul MTD* YTD* Bharti Airtel | D-Mart | Biocon | Mphasis | Trent | Persistent Cash 710 655 775 Other Notes F&O 1,01,297 54,485 44,493 Sys | Indiamart Inter. | IEX Note: *Average Chart of the Day: UltraTech Cement (Margin outlook continues to improve) Cement volumes up 47% YoY in 1QFY22 Volume (mt) YoY growth (%) 47 39 33 35 31 21.7 29 29 20.1 28 18 14 7 14.7 8 -2 -4 -15 -31 14.0 16.9 19.4 19.8 18.9 21.8 25.4 21.2 18.5 20.9 23.9 27.8 21.5 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 Source: Company, MOFSL Research Team ([email protected]) Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. In the news today Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link 1 2 Consumer demand during Rakesh Jhunjhunwala-firm files IPO papers: Star Health and Allied Phase II of the lockdown Insurance plans Rs 2,000 cr issue improved by 200%: Report Rakesh Jhunjhunwala-owned Star Health and Allied Insurance Company Consumer demand has been up by Ltd has filed draft papers for its initial public offer (IPO) with capital more than 200 per cent in the markets regulator SEBI. The company is owned by Safecrop Investments second phase of lockdown India LLP, WestBridge AIF I, and ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, (March-May 21), as compared to according to the DRHP (draft red herring prospectus). The private health the lockdown last year (March to insurer has a 15% market share. According to CRISIL Research, Start May 2020), according to a survey Health is a leading private health insurer and the largest retail health report by ZestMoney, the Buy insurance company in India. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala-owned Barbeque Now, Pay Later platform. Nation and Nazara Technologies listed on the stock exchanges recently. Customer applications… 3 4 Inflation index reset: Wages RBI to introduce Central Bank under key govt schemes to Digital Currency in phases: deputy governor rise 5 The government’s decision to The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will revise the base year to 2018-2019 introduce its own version of Central Inflationary situation in India from 1986-87 and expansion of Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in a is at a 'very risky bend': the consumption basket for phased manner and after carefully Kaushik Basu consumer price index for weighing its impact on various India's wholesale price-based agricultural and rural labourers issues, including how it could inflation is at a 30-year high, (CPI-AL and CPI-RL) is likely to hamper the deposit mobilisation leading to a "very alarming" result in upward revisions in abilities of banks, and its potential situation for the country, former nominal terms of the wages for effect on the conduct of the World Bank chief economist millions of workers… monetary policy,… Kaushik Basu said on Thursday. He, however, doesn't see any risk of hyperinflation, but cautioned 6 7 that if retail inflation follows wholesale prices, it might lead to Arvind Lifestyle sells Unlimited Dabur expands honey range "inflationary crisis". Participating in a virtual event organised by the stores to V-Mart to spreads and syrups Asia Society, India, Basu said the Arvind Lifestyle Brands Ltd Fast moving consumer goods inflationary situation in India is at (ALBL), a wholly owned company Dabur India Ltd, on a "very risky bend"… subsidiary of Arvind Fashions, Thursday announced its entry has agreed to sell assets of its into the syrups and spreads Unlimited retail business to V- category with the launch of Mart Retail. Following this flavoured honey. Dabur Honey transaction, V-Mart Retail will Tasties has been launched in two enter the markets in southern flavours—Chocolate and India. ALBL will sell fixed assets, Strawberry – priced at ₹120 for a lease deposits, warehouses,… 200 gm pack…. 23 July 2021 2 22 July 2021 1QFY22 Results Update | Sector: Cement UltraTech Cement Estimate change CMP: INR7,460 TP: INR8,770 (+18%) Buy TP change Margin outlook continues to improve Rating change Expansions provide strong growth visibility Motilal Oswal values your support in the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2021 for India UltraTech Cement (UTCEM) continued to improve its costs and margins in Research, Sales, Corporate Access and 1QFY22; it reported the highest ever EBITDA/unit of INR1,536/t (+8% YoY) Trading team. We request your ballot. during the quarter. Coupled with volume growth of 47% YoY, this led to 59% YoY growth in EBITDA. Net debt fell INR7b QoQ to INR59.8b (0.44x TTM EBITDA). Market share gains should continue, aided by the ongoing 20mtpa Bloomberg UTCEM IN expansion program, which should drive a 13% volume CAGR over FY21–24E. Equity Shares (m) 288 We raise our EPS for FY22E/FY23E by 6%/6%, factoring in a better realization M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 2153.3 / 28.9 outlook. We estimate a 26% EPS CAGR over FY21–23E. 52-Week Range (INR) 7545 / 3737 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 8/27/54 Better realization and lower cost inflation drive 9% beat on EBITDA 12M Avg Val (INR M) 3566 Consolidated revenue / EBITDA / Adjusted PAT rose 54%/59%/92% YoY to Financial Snapshot (INR b) INR118.3b/INR33.1b/INR17.0b and was -1%/+9%/+9% against our estimate. Y/E MARCH 2021 2022E 2023E Consolidated volumes rose 47% YoY to 21.53mt (v/s our expectation of Sales 447 530 613 22.1mt), with India volumes up 47% YoY. EBITDA/t at INR1,536/t (+8% YoY, EBITDA 116 129 154 +16% QoQ) surprised positively v/s our estimate of INR1,368/t. Adj. PAT 55 69 88 EBITDA Margin (%) 26 24 25 Blended realization rose 5% YoY to INR5,495/t (+6% QoQ; est. 5,401/t). On Adj. EPS (INR) 190 237 306 the other hand, cost inflation was lower than expected at 3.7% YoY to EPS Gr. (%) 31 25 29 INR3,958/t (v/s our estimate of INR4,033/t). Freight and fuel cost inflation BV/Sh. (INR) 1,609 1,824 1,992 Ratios was low despite the surge in diesel and petcoke prices. Net D:E 0.1 0.1 (0.1) Other income fell 27% YoY to INR2.0b and finance cost fell 17% YoY to RoE (%) 13.2 14.5 16.4 INR3.3b on a sharp debt reduction. Consolidated net debt fell further by RoCE (%) 10.3 11.7 13.6 INR7b QoQ to INR59.8b (implying 0.44x TTM EBITDA). Payout (%) 8.3 6.7 6.7 Valuations Highlights from management commentary P/E (x) 39.2 31.5 24.5 P/BV (x) 4.6 4.1 3.8 Fixed costs should remain stable as travel costs were lower in 1QFY22.
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