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1616580050.Pdf СОДЕРЖАНИЕ СОДЕРЖАНИЕ СОДЕРЖАНИЕ 2 ВВЕДЕНИЕ 3 СОЦИАЛЬНЫЕ МЕДИА НА ВЫБОРАХ: НАЧАЛО ДЛИННОГО ПУТИ 4 Становление политических интернет-технологий 1996–2016 4 2016: интернет побеждает телевизор. Феномен Дональда Трампа 5 ПОЛОЖЕНИЕ СОЦИАЛЬНЫХ МЕДИА К СТАРТУ КАМПАНИИ-2020 8 ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕ НОВЫХ ИНСТРУМЕНТОВ В ХОДЕ ПРЕЗИДЕНТСКОЙ ГОНКИ 10 Цифровая стратегия демократов на выборах-2020. «Барометр» 10 Цифровая стратегия Трампа на выборах-2020. Роботизация таргетинга 14 Полевая работа в условиях эпидемии 18 Растущая популярность мобильных приложений 19 Фандрайзинг 22 Предвыборный дискурс и цензура 25 TikTok. Фактор новых соцмедиа в политической агитации 27 КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ ВЫВОДЫ 31 СПИСОК ИСТОЧНИКОВ 32 2 ВВЕДЕНИЕ ВВЕДЕНИЕ Выборы 2020 года в США прошли в самых не- В этом докладе не ставится цель проследить обычных условиях из всех возможных – на фоне хронологию президентской гонки в США и не вы- глобальной пандемии, самого тяжёлого экономи- сказываются оценочные суждения о результатах ческого кризиса за более чем 80 лет и наиболее прошедших выборов. Он посвящён анализу того массовых уличных протестов за последние 50 лет. инструментария, что использовался в ходе пред- Политтехнологам приходится на ходу подстра- выборной борьбы. иваться под эти неожиданные обстоятельства, В самом ближайшем будущем эти технологии адаптируясь к новой реальности. Уже давно про- станут активно использоваться во всём мире. Сле- должающаяся цифровизация современной поли- дует внимательно изучить цифровые тренды в тики лишь ускорилась. планировании и проведении предвыборных кам- На фоне кризиса традиционных медиа и соцсе- паний, агитации, полевой работы и уличной ак- тей появляются альтернативные площадки, на- тивности, которые на деле показали себя в США. бирающие стремительную популярность. Пред- выборная активность уходит в онлайн, где проще и дешевле проводить виртуальные митинги, со- брания сторонников и заниматься мобилизацией избирателей. Но и уличные выступления теперь организуются горизонтальным образом – при по- мощи цифровых инструментов вроде мессендже- ров. Если на американских выборах в 2016 году интернет впервые победил телевизор, то в 2020-м он превратился в очевидного лидера среди инстру- ментов коммуникации с избирателями. 3 СОЦИАЛЬНЫЕ МЕДИА НА ВЫБОРАХ: НАЧАЛО ДЛИННОГО ПУТИ СОЦИАЛЬНЫЕ МЕДИА НА ВЫБОРАХ: НАЧАЛО ДЛИННОГО ПУТИ СТАНОВЛЕНИЕ ПОЛИТИЧЕСКИХ ИНТЕРНЕТ-ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ 1996–2016 Ключевые тезисы: • Первопроходцем в использовании интернет-ресурсов и соцсетей в американской поли- тике стал Барак Обама. • Оставаясь лидером в применении цифровых технологий, Обама дважды уверенно побе- ждал на президентских выборах, задав тренд на будущее. Ранние попытки использовать интернет для по- Помимо уже существующих соцмедиа, в рамках литической борьбы в США наблюдались еще в ходе кампании был создан отдельный онлайн-форум предвыборной кампании 1996 года. Тогда Билл сторонников Обамы, названный MyBO (My Barack Клинтон и республиканец Боб Дойл открыли свои Obama). К лету на нем зарегистрировалось более первые сайты. двух миллионов активистов, готовых помогать из- Серьезным фактором цифровые технологии ста- бранию Обамы.3 Политтехнологи будущего прези- ли лишь спустя восемь лет. Кандидат от демокра- дента впервые в истории запустили официальные тов Джон Керри запустил на своем сайте целый мобильные приложения на iOS. Это позволило форум для ведения агитационной деятельности оперативно сообщать о проведении предвыборных и самоорганизации.1 Агитация за кандидата ве- мероприятий и старте голосования.4 лась в онлайн-сообществах на таких порталах, как К четвертому году президентства Обама оста- Friendster, Tribe, Ryze, LinkedIn. вался абсолютным лидером среди политиков США В 2006 году демократы стали активно продви- по количеству подписчиков во всех соцсетях. Его гать интернет-рекламу и создавать электронную будущим конкурентам с самого начала пришлось базу данных своих сторонников. Именно в этот пе- работать в неравных условиях, имея доступ к го- риод политтехнологи начали в полной мере осоз- раздо меньшей онлайн-аудитории. навать важность интернета. Первым за это ухва- Во время праймериз Митт Ромни, экс-губерна- тился Барак Обама. тор Массачусетса, обладал наибольшим предста- Еще на старте своей президентской кампании в вительством в соцсетях среди республиканских середине 2007 года Обама нанял команду политме- кандидатов – общее количество его подписчиков неджеров для работы в интернете. Она получила в Facebook и Twitter доходило до 1,5 млн человек.5 название «Triple O» («Онлайн Операции Обамы»). Ромни с самого начала кампании сформировал Обама вёл аккаунты в Facebook, MySpace, Twitter и большую команду экспертов по работе с онлайн-ме- на таких порталах, как AsianAve, MiGente и BlackPlanet. диа и соцсетями, чьей задачей было догнать и обо- Эти ресурсы были площадками для общения азиатов, гнать Обаму. Но успеха не достиг. Суммарная ауди- испаноязычных и афроамериканцев – ключевых для тория Ромни в соцмедиа по итогам кампании была демократов групп избирателей. Во многом благодаря в 10 раз меньше, чем у Обамы.6 При этом Ромни работе в соцмедиа явка среди представителей этниче- посвящал большую часть своего онлайн-месседжа ских меньшинств, а также молодежи выросла на 12- критике действий Обамы. Обама, напротив, кон- 2 20% по сравнению с выборами-2004. центрировался на позитивной повестке, интерес- 1. John Kerry Internet Town Meeting. https://web.archive.org/web/20040527224726/http://forum.johnkerry.com/index.php?act=idx 2. Roberts S. 2008 Surge in Black Voters Nearly Erased Racial Gap. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/us/politics/21vote.html 3. Talbot D. How Obama Really Did It. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/410644/how-obama-really-did-it/ 4. Melber A. Obama’s Web-Savvy Voter Plan https://www.thenation.com/article/obamas-web-savvy-voter-plan/ 5. Moffatt Z. 2012 Social Media Campaign of Mitt Romney. Sl 2. https://www.socialbakers.com/www/archive/storage/www/romney.pdf 6. Rutledge P., Dr. How Obama Won the Social Media Battle in the 2012 Presidential Campaign. The National Psychologist, 2013. Pp. 2-3 4 СОЦИАЛЬНЫЕ МЕДИА НА ВЫБОРАХ: НАЧАЛО ДЛИННОГО ПУТИ ной различным категориям избирателей.7 принятии любых решений.8 Ромни вчистую прои- Неудачи Ромни осложнялись и тем, что его кам- грал Обаме в схватке за интернет, что стало одной пания в соцмедиа страдала бюрократизацией при из причин его поражения на выборах.9 2016: ИНТЕРНЕТ ПОБЕЖДАЕТ ТЕЛЕВИЗОР. ФЕНОМЕН ДОНАЛЬДА ТРАМПА Ключевые тезисы: • Главной особенностью кампании Трампа в 2016 году был не только идеологический по- пулизм, но и активное использование цифровых медиа как основного медиатора в обще- нии с избирателем. • Кампания Трампа, в которой упор был сделан на работу с малыми данными и микро- таргетинг, оказалась успешнее кампаний конкурентов, ставших заложниками традици- онных и «офлайновых» инструментов политтехнологий. Выборы 2016 года привнесли множество нововве- Они начали активно использовать две катего- дений в сферу управления политическими кампа- рии данных – big data и small data для создания ниями. Пионерами на пути цифровизации полит- подробных баз данных избирателей. Если большие технологий стала тройка кандидатов – Дональд данные представляют из себя основные факты об Трамп, Тед Круз и Берни Сандерс. избирателях (их семейное положение, место рабо- 7. Pew Research Center. Degree of Digital Effort – Obama Far Outweighs Romney. 2012. https://www.journalism.org/2012/08/15/degree-digital-ef- fort-obama-far-outweighs-romney/ 8. Chittal N. It took 22 people to approve a Romney tweet. http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/new-details-show-romney-campaign-struggled-social-media 9. The Presidential Campaign on Social Media. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/08/technology/campaign-social-media.html 5 СОЦИАЛЬНЫЕ МЕДИА НА ВЫБОРАХ: НАЧАЛО ДЛИННОГО ПУТИ ты, доход), то малые данные обращают внимание Например, высокие показатели по шкале откры- на мелкие детали из социальных характеристик, тости могут означать, что человек имеет оружие и, например: любимую марку автомобиля, какой вероятно, увлекается охотой. Уровень невротизма медстраховкой пользуется избиратель, владеет ли выше среднего говорит о том, что человек чувству- он оружием. Такие сведения раньше собирались ет себя крайне некомфортно и небезопасно в совре- путём скрупулёзных глубинных исследований, менной Америке. А высокая экстраверсия и добро- но современные технологии позволяют «выта- совестность означают, что пользователь с высокой скивать» их напрямую из соцсетей. Эти данные долей вероятности владеет малым или средним ложатся в основу поведенческих методов анализа бизнесом. Для каждого из этих типажей показыва- избирателей. Small data позволяют создать трёх- лась отдельная цифровая реклама – подход полу- мерную систему оценки избирателей и найти бо- чил название микротаргетинга.11 лее персонализированный подход. Позже подход Круза был взят за основу командой Для исследования small data Круз инвестировал Трампа. Будущий президент США с первых дней 2,5 млн долларов в компанию Cambridge Analytica. видел потенциал в онлайн-сфере. На момент нача- Эта организация начала разрабатывать психологи- ла своей кампании он обладал самым популярным ческие портреты пользователей соцсетей. Информа- аккаунтом в Twitter среди всех республиканских цию она собирала через специальное Facebook-при- кандидатов. Трамп хвастался тем, как он смог соо- ложение, которое запрашивало у пользователей рудить официальный сайт всего за «три доллара».12 полный доступ к их личным данным. Cambridge После победы Трампа на праймериз он нанял Analytica выделяла пять базовых характеристик для
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