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1 the Brookings Institution Turnaround: Third World TURNAROUND-2013/03/15 1 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION TURNAROUND: THIRD WORLD LESSONS FOR FIRST WORLD GROWTH Washington, D.C. Friday, March 15, 2013 Moderator: LESLEY WROUGHTON Senior Correspondent Thomson Reuters Featured Speaker: PETER BLAIR HENRY Dean, Stern School of Business, New York University Nonresident Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Panelists: URI DADUSH Senior Associate and Director, International Economics Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace DOMENICO LOMBARDI Senior Fellow The Brookings Institution * * * * * ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 TURNAROUND-2013/03/15 2 ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 TURNAROUND-2013/03/15 3 P R O C E E D I N G S MS. WROUGHTON: Well, thank you very much for joining us today. We're here with Professor Henry for the New York University, Stern School of Business, whose -- the focus today is his wonderful new book, which is called Turnaround: Third World Lessons for First World Growth. Welcome. We're looking forward to hearing all about it. We have Uri Dadush next to him, Senior Associate and Director of the International Economics Program at Carnegie Endowment. Welcome, Uri. MR. DADUSH: Thanks, Lesley. MS. WROUGHTON: And then we have Domenico Lombardi, a Senior Fellow here at Brookings, specializing in global economy and development. And both of you, I've known from the World Bank, where you were previously. So -- good. So, just to set it up, you know, the rise of emerging economies, and the development in developing economies is the focus of everyone, considering what's going on -- low growth, high unemployment and so on -- in the developed world. What can they learn from the policies, and from the development in these emerging economies? And that's the focus of your book. ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 TURNAROUND-2013/03/15 4 So, we're interested to hear what you have to say, you're story -- a compelling one. I was actually reading it before I was asked to moderate this panel. So it had caught my attention. And I was actually looking at some of the reviews, which call it, "A concise and controversial statement of what needs to be overcome if the world economy is to return to the path of growth and stability." So we're going to give you an opportunity to set it up for us, and then we'll follow with comments by Uri, and then Domenico, and then we'll go into a Q&A. Thank you. MR. HENRY: Thank you, Lesley. And I'm hoping that your interest in the book before being asked to be on the panel is a leading indicator of its future sales. So, thank you very much. The first-world nations -- the United States, Western Europe, Japan -- the central argument in the book is the first-world nations look very similar to what the third-world nations -- quote-unquote "third world nations -- looked like three decades ago: high debt, slow growth, and a lack of direction. And the central argument in Turnaround is that there's much that the first-world can learn from the third-world in order to right our own economic ship. And, in particular, the third-world's struggle with economic reforms can teach us what we need to do to get back on track. ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 TURNAROUND-2013/03/15 5 So, specifically, I argue that the third-world's struggle with economic reforms teaches us about three things, three things we need, to see a more prosperous future. And those three things are what I call "discipline," "clarity," and "trust." So I'm going to try to be disciplined, myself. I'm going to hold to my 15-minute allotment. And so what I will do is just give you the very sort of top-line view of the main arguments. So, I've already made three claims: high debt, slow growth, lack of direction. Just very briefly, what are those? So, from 2002 to 2007, we had one of the most prosperous periods in world history, the fastest five-year period of global growth ever - - 4.9 percent per year for the global economy as a whole, with emerging markets leading the way. In 2012, a very different situation: 1.3 percent growth in advanced nations, emerging markets at 5.3 percent. And, in particular, if you look at Europe, Europe contracted last year. Debt -- through that boom period, from 2002 to 2007, contrary to what standard economic policy teaches us -- and this is the point about discipline -- "discipline" doesn't mean what you think it means. "Discipline" doesn't mean austerity, nor does it mean wasteful spending. "Discipline" means a sustained commitment to prosperity. Now, in the context of fiscal policy, discipline means countercyclical fiscal policy. So, ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 TURNAROUND-2013/03/15 6 from 2002 to 2007, we did see countercyclical fiscal policy in emerging countries. On average, they ran fiscal surpluses of about 1 percent of GDP. In contrast, advanced nations were running deficits on the order of 3 percent of GDP. And as a result of that, we now see average debt levels in advanced nations in excess of 100 percent, and in emerging nations debt levels are substantially lower, on the order of 30 percent, on average. So, the first thing I'd like to do is to talk about what does "discipline" actually mean? So, as I said, "discipline" does not mean austerity. It doesn't mean wasteful spending. To put it in what I like to call sort of "dietary" terms, discipline isn't crash dieting, nor is it binge eating -- or sugary sodas if you're from New York. In the book, I say discipline is a sustained commitment to a long-term, to long-term prosperity, that is both vigilant and flexible, and values what's good for the country as a whole, over what's good for any individual, interest group, or person running for political office. And the history of the third-world struggle with economic reform teaches what discipline means in everything from the context of fiscal policy to international trade, to international capital flows, for example. So, let me give you a specific example, in terms of fiscal policy. Countercyclical fiscal policy, let's take two contrasting countries. ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 TURNAROUND-2013/03/15 7 In 2001, the United States ran a $236 billion fiscal surplus. We made a conscious -- and we had record fiscal surplus in 2000, as well. We made a conscious decision to not be countercyclical, to be procyclical, and to give back that surplus in the form of tax cuts. We know where that's gotten us today. In contrast, Chile -- in 2008, Chile experienced a boom. The treasury was taking in record amounts of revenue as a result of the commodity boom, in particular, the surge in the price of copper. Andrés Velasco, the Finance Minister, was burned in effigy in 2008 for refusing to give back the people's money, as it were. He said, no, this money is for a rainy day. The financial crisis hit, Chile was able to institute a $4 billion tax-cut package to cushion the blow of the financial crisis. Countercyclical fiscal policy. Third-world ants, first-world grasshoppers, if you will. Okay. That's discipline. And we can talk perhaps later about what discipline means in the context of trade policy, in the context of international capital flows. The second point -- clarity. So, third-world countries were able to turn themselves around and become emerging markets when their leaders displayed a clear commitment to a change of direction. The ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 TURNAROUND-2013/03/15 8 example I'd like to use here is, again, a broader example from Latin America. So, in 1984, a year before James A. Baker, III, made his very famous speech in Seoul, South Korea, at the World Bank and IMF meetings, where he unveiled his -- quote-unquote -- "program for sustained growth," which became the basis for the "Washington Consensus," as it was later coined by John Williamson from across the street -- the year before James Baker made that famous speech, which really set off a firestorm about what discipline actually means in the context of economic policy -- and I think I've laid out a definition in the book which I think is a useful one -- but in the year before Baker made that speech, if you were to look at the price-earnings ratio in Latin America, the average price-earnings ratio was 3.5, so the stock market was in the tank. Now, why is this relevant? Well, part of the argument, a central part of the argument in the book, is that we can actually get, the best barometer we can get for whether a given policy change is likely to create or destroy value, is to look at how the stock market responds to the announcement of an economic policy change, or set of economic policy changes.
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