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Running Head: BELIEF in PHYSIOGNOMY 1 Lay Beliefs In Running head: BELIEF IN PHYSIOGNOMY 1 Lay Beliefs in Physiognomy Explain Overreliance on Facial Impressions Bastian Jaeger and Anthony M. Evans Tilburg University Mariëlle Stel University of Twente Ilja van Beest Tilburg University Draft version: 4 June 2020 Word count: 4992 This paper is currently undergoing peer review. Comments are welcome. Author Note Bastian Jaeger, Anthony M. Evans, and Ilja van Beest, Department of Social Psychology, Tilburg University, The Netherlands; Mariëlle Stel, Department of Psychology of Conflict, Risk and Safety, The Netherlands. All data, analysis scripts, materials, and preregistration documents are available at the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/s9nj8/). Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Bastian Jaeger, Department of Social Psychology, Tilburg University, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected]. BELIEF IN PHYSIGONOMY 2 Abstract People often rely on a person’s facial appearance when judging their character, even when more diagnostic information is available. This can lead to worse decision outcomes and appearance- based discrimination. What explains this overreliance on facial impressions? In three studies, we examine the role of lay beliefs in physiognomy—the idea that facial features are indicative of a person’s character. We find widespread endorsement of physiognomic beliefs in a representative sample of the Dutch population (Study 1, n = 2,624). Crucially, people with stronger physiognomic belief rely more on facial impressions when making trust decisions (Study 2, n = 224). They are also more confident in their ability to detect corrupt politicians based on facial photographs, but this increased confidence is not associated with superior judgment accuracy (Study 3, n = 406). In sum, our studies show that physiognomic beliefs are widespread and related to overreliance on facial impressions. Keywords: physiognomy, lay beliefs, social perception, trait inferences, social decision-making BELIEF IN PHYSIGONOMY 3 Lay Beliefs in Physiognomy Explain Overreliance on Facial Impressions People spontaneously judge the trustworthiness of strangers based on their facial appearance (Todorov et al., 2015). Even though the accuracy of trustworthiness impressions is generally low (Bonnefon et al., 2017; Rule et al., 2010; Todorov et al., 2015), people are relatively confident in their impressions (Ames et al., 2010) and rely on them when making consequential decisions (Olivola et al., 2014). People even rely on facial impressions when they have access to more diagnostic information (Jaeger et al., 2019) and when they are explicitly instructed to discount a person’s appearance (Jaeger et al., 2020). This excessive reliance on facial cues can lead to worse decision outcomes (Olivola & Todorov, 2010) and to appearance- based discrimination. Why do people persistently rely on trustworthiness impressions from faces? Here, we examine the role of lay beliefs in physiognomy. The practice of physiognomy rests on the notion that a person’s character is reflected in their facial appearance (Lavater, 1775). Early writings proposed that the size and orientation of facial features reflect their frequent use (e.g., a disagreeable person who frowns a lot will have lowered eyebrows) and resemblances between humans and other animals were thought to point to shared psychological attributes (e.g., a person who looks like a lion is brave like a lion; Aristotle, trans. 1936). These speculations were not based on rigorous scientific study and many claimed links between specific facial features and personality traits were disconfirmed by empirical work at the beginning of the 20th century (Alley, 1988). Although physiognomy is now widely viewed as pseudo-science in academic circles (Todorov, 2017), it remains unclear how widespread belief in physiognomy is in the general population. Crucially, widespread beliefs in physiognomy may explain the pervasive effect of trustworthiness impressions on social outcomes. If people think facial features are a valid indicator of a person’s character, then they might rely more on facial impressions, especially because these impressions come to mind easily (Todorov et al., 2015). Thus far, little is known about physiognomic beliefs. A recent study by Suzuki and colleagues (2017) showed that physiognomic beliefs are (a) related to other lay beliefs, such as belief in a just world and belief in the biological determinism of personality and (b) associated with more extreme trait judgments based on facial appearance. These are important insights, but do not answer whether belief in physiognomy can also explain why some people (over-)rely on facial impressions. BELIEF IN PHYSIGONOMY 4 The current investigation extends previous work in three important ways. First, we examine the prevalence of physiognomic beliefs in a large, representative sample of the Dutch population (Study 1, n = 2,624, preregistered). We estimate how many people believe that facial features are a good indicator of a person’s personality, and of their moral character in particular. Second, we examine whether people who believe in physiognomy rely more on facial impressions in social decision-making (Study 2, n = 224). Specifically, we test whether belief in physiognomy predicts reliance on trustworthiness impressions in a situation in which people could also rely on more diagnostic information instead. In other words, we investigate overreliance on trustworthiness impressions. Third, we examine whether this increased reliance on facial impressions is justified (Study 3, n = 406, preregistered). To this end, we replicate a recent study by Lin and colleagues (2018) who found that people are able to detect the corruptibility of politicians based on facial photographs at rates higher than chance. We test whether stronger physiognomic beliefs are associated with increased confidence in the accuracy of corruptibility judgments. Crucially, we also examine whether this increased confidence is justified, that is, whether it is based on superior judgment accuracy. We test whether people who believe in physiognomy attach more weight to facial impressions because their impressions are more accurate. For each study, we made the data, analysis scripts, and preregistration documents available at the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/s9nj8/). We report all measures, how our sample sizes were determined, and all data exclusions. Study 1: Prevalence of Physiognomic Beliefs The main goal of Study 1 was to estimate the prevalence of belief in physiognomy. The pervasive effects of trustworthiness impressions on social outcomes may be explained by widespread belief in the diagnosticity of facial features for judging a person’s moral character. We measured endorsement of general physiognomic belief (e.g., “I can learn something about a person’s personality just from looking at his or her face”) in a large, representative sample of the Dutch population. We also assessed the specific belief that a person’s moral character (e.g., trustworthiness) is reflected in their facial features. Methods Participants. We recruited a representative sample of 2,807 Dutch participants via the LISS (Longitudinal Internet Studies of the Social Sciences) panel (Scherpenzeel & Das, 2010). BELIEF IN PHYSIGONOMY 5 The panel is based on a probability sample of Dutch households drawn from the population register. Panel members are representative of the Dutch population on indicators like gender, age, education, and income (see http://lissdata.nl for more information). Data from 183 participants (6.52%) who had missing data for at least one question was excluded from analysis, leaving a final sample of 2,624 participants (Mage = 52.60, SDage = 16.50; 52.52% female, 47.48% male). A sensitivity analysis in G*Power (Faul et al., 2007) showed that this sample size afforded us 80% power to detect a small difference (r = .055) between general and morality- specific physiognomic beliefs (with α = 5%). Materials and procedure. We measured physiognomic beliefs in two ways. To measure general physiognomic belief, participants were prompted to imagine seeing the passport photo of a stranger. They were asked to indicate how much they agreed with three statements (e.g., I can learn something about a person’s personality just from looking at his or her face) on a scale from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). Average scores across the three items constituted our measure of general physiognomic belief (Cronbach’s α = .63). We randomized the order in which the three items were presented. We also measured the specific belief that a person’s moral character is reflected in their facial features. We asked participants how accurately they could judge three traits related to moral character (trustworthiness, sincerity, honesty; α = .92; Brambilla et al., 2011) from looking at a person’s passport photo. For each item, responses were indicated using a slider from 0 (not at all accurately) to 100 (extremely accurately). For exploratory purposes, we also asked participants to indicate their physiognomic beliefs for nine other characteristics: three characteristics related to a person’s sociability (warmth, friendliness, likeability; α = .90), three characteristics related to a person’s competence (competence, intelligence, skillfulness; α = .87) and three physically salient characteristics (gender, age, and attractiveness). The order in which the items were presented was randomized. Results for the additional
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