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Kensington Constituency Study

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Kensington Constituency Study Kensington Constituency Study Methodology Kensington Constituency Study Page 4 27 Apr 2017 Table 1 Q1. Normal weightings Q1. The next General Election is due to be held on 8th June 2017. On a 0 to 10 scale, where 0 = definitely not going to vote and 10 = definitely going to vote, how likely do you think you will be to vote in your Kensington constituency at the next General Election? Base: All Respondents EU Referendum EU Referendum Victoria Borwick Total Sex Age Wards General Election Voting Intention 2015 General Election Past Vote Past Vote Past Vote Favourability Borwick, Abouharb, McGhee, Bovill, Rose, Favour- Unfavour- Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ North South OTHER UND Leave Remain CON LAB LD UKIP Other Leave Remain CON LAB LD UKIP Green able able Unweighted Total 522 242 280 107 222 193 302 220 169 116 62 6 26 - 107 132 351 187 133 29 17 21 117 322 119 118 Weighted Total 522 258 264 172 199 150 234 288 175 112 63 5 27 - 110 127 361 203 120 21 17 25 112 330 126 113 10 = certain to vote 390 192 198 119 148 124 165 225 142 86 54 3 22 - 73 102 269 172 101 19 11 22 89 260 105 85 74.7% 74.5% 74.9% 68.9% 74.0% 82.2% 70.4% 78.2% 81.0% 77.1% 85.3% 59.1% 81.6% - 66.3% 80.6% 74.4% 84.6% 83.7% 89.7% 62.8% 86.5% 79.7% 78.9% 83.0% 75.5% 9 22 14 9 10 6 7 12 10 5 7 3 2 1 - 4 6 14 7 5 2 1 3 8 14 5 5 4.3% 5.3% 3.3% 5.7% 3.0% 4.4% 5.2% 3.5% 3.1% 6.3% 4.7% 40.9% 2.0% - 3.9% 4.5% 3.9% 3.4% 3.8% 7.6% 3.5% 10.8% 7.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.6% 8 24 12 11 10 10 4 13 11 8 6 3 - - - 6 3 20 10 1 - 2 - 2 15 4 4 4.6% 4.8% 4.3% 5.9% 5.1% 2.4% 5.7% 3.7% 4.5% 5.5% 4.4% - - - 5.7% 2.3% 5.4% 5.1% 0.7% - 8.8% - 2.1% 4.4% 3.4% 3.6% 7 14 8 6 7 6 2 7 7 4 2 - - 1 - 7 5 5 2 2 - 4 - 6 3 2 1 2.7% 3.1% 2.3% 3.9% 2.9% 1.1% 3.2% 2.3% 2.3% 1.6% - - 4.8% - 6.4% 4.1% 1.5% 0.8% 2.0% - 24.9% - 5.8% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 6 5 3 2 2 3 - 2 3 2 2 - - - - 1 1 4 1 1 - - - - 3 1 1 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 1.4% 1.5% - 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.8% - - - - 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% - - - - 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 5 32 14 18 13 13 6 17 15 13 4 1 - 2 - 11 4 24 6 8 - - - 4 19 5 8 6.1% 5.4% 6.8% 7.4% 6.6% 4.1% 7.1% 5.3% 7.5% 3.6% 1.6% - 8.7% - 10.4% 2.8% 6.8% 2.9% 6.3% - - - 3.4% 5.7% 4.0% 7.2% 4 * - * - - * * - - - - - - - * - * - - - - - - * - * * - * - - * * - - - - - - - * - * - - - - - - * - * 3 9 4 4 8 - 1 4 4 1 3 - - - - 5 - 9 1 - - - - - 8 - 2 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 4.7% - * 1.8% 1.5% * 3.1% - - - - 4.2% - 2.4% 0.7% - - - - - 2.3% - 2.0% 2 3 - 3 - 2 1 1 2 - - 1 - 1 - 1 - 3 - 1 - - - - 2 - - 0.6% - 1.2% - 1.0% 0.7% * 0.8% - - 1.6% - 2.9% - 1.2% - 0.8% - 0.6% - - - - 0.6% - - 1 3 2 2 1 2 - 2 2 - 1 2 - - - * * 3 2 - - - - - 2 * - 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 1.0% - 0.7% 0.5% - 1.0% 2.4% - - - * * 0.7% 0.8% - - - - - * * - 0 = definitely not vote 19 9 11 2 10 7 10 9 - - - - - - - 6 10 3 2 1 - 1 2 4 4 5 3.7% 3.4% 4.0% 1.4% 5.0% 4.5% 4.4% 3.1% - - - - - - - 4.4% 2.8% 1.3% 2.0% 2.7% - 2.6% 2.0% 1.2% 2.9% 4.6% SIGMA 522 258 264 172 199 150 234 288 175 112 63 5 27 - 110 127 361 203 120 21 17 25 112 330 126 113 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Prepared by Survation Page 4 Kensington Constituency Study Page 5 27 Apr 2017 Table 2 Q2. Normal weightings Q2. Imagine the General Election is tomorrow. Which candidate would you vote for in your Kensington constituency? Base: Likely to vote EU Referendum EU Referendum Victoria Borwick Total Sex Age Wards General Election Voting Intention 2015 General Election Past Vote Past Vote Past Vote Favourability Borwick, Abouharb, McGhee, Bovill, Rose, Favour- Unfavour- Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ North South OTHER UND Leave Remain CON LAB LD UKIP Other Leave Remain CON LAB LD UKIP Green able able Unweighted Total 497 230 267 105 209 183 286 211 169 116 62 6 26 - 107 125 339 184 130 28 17 20 114 318 115 112 Weighted Total 503 249 254 170 189 144 224 279 175 112 63 5 27 - 110 121 351 200 118 21 17 24 110 326 123 108 Victoria Borwick, the Conservative candidate 175 92 83 29 67 78 46 129 175 - - - - - - 76 88 124 8 2 8 4 67 88 84 18 34.8% 36.8% 32.9% 17.2% 35.5% 54.6% 20.4% 46.3% 100.0% - - - - - - 62.7% 25.0% 62.1% 6.6% 10.8% 47.3% 16.6% 61.1% 27.1% 68.7% 17.0% Rod Abouharb, the Labour candidate 112 56 55 50 42 20 69 43 - 112 - - - - - 19 90 9 68 3 1 5 19 73 18 34 22.3% 22.7% 21.8% 29.7% 22.1% 13.7% 31.0% 15.3% - 100.0% - - - - - 15.6% 25.8% 4.3% 57.3% 15.4% 3.4% 20.4% 17.4% 22.4% 14.9% 31.8% Robin McGhee, the Liberal Democrat candidate 63 37 26 26 20 17 24 40 - - 63 - - - - 1 62 27 11 10 - 4 1 59 5 21 12.6% 15.0% 10.2% 15.4% 10.6% 11.8% 10.6% 14.2% - - 100.0% - - - - 0.6% 17.6% 13.6% 8.9% 46.9% - 14.9% 0.7% 18.0% 4.1% 19.4% Jack Bovill, the UKIP candidate 5 4 1 - 4 1 3 2 - - - 5 - - - 3 2 1 - 1 2 1 3 2 - 1 0.9% 1.5% * - 2.1% 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% - - - 100.0% - - - 2.2% 0.6% * - 3.5% 12.5% 5.5% 2.5% 0.6% - 0.7% Robina Rose, the Green Party candidate 27 14 13 15 5 8 17 9 - - - - 27 - - 4 21 4 7 4 - 9 3 19 6 9 5.3% 5.5% 5.2% 8.7% 2.4% 5.3% 7.8% 3.4% - - - - 100.0% - - 3.6% 6.0% 1.8% 5.6% 16.8% - 37.0% 2.8% 5.9% 5.1% 8.1% Another Party's candidate - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Undecided 110 43 68 48 47 15 60 50 - - - - - - 110 16 80 36 20 1 6 1 14 79 9 23 21.9% 17.1% 26.7% 28.2% 25.0% 10.5% 27.0% 17.9% - - - - - - 100.0% 13.3% 22.9% 17.7% 16.9% 6.6% 36.8% 5.6% 13.2% 24.2% 7.2% 21.3% Refused 11 4 7 1 4 5 4 6 - - - - - - - 2 7 * 5 - - - 3 5 - 2 2.2% 1.5% 2.8% 0.8% 2.2% 3.7% 2.0% 2.3% - - - - - - - 1.9% 2.1% * 4.7% - - - 2.3% 1.6% - 1.8% SIGMA 503 249 254 170 189 144 224 279 175 112 63 5 27 - 110 121 351 200 118 21 17 24 110 326 123 108 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Prepared by Survation Page 5 Kensington Constituency Study Page 6 27 Apr 2017 Table 3 Q2. Normal weightings & likelihood to vote Q2. Imagine the General Election is tomorrow. Which candidate would you vote for in your Kensington constituency? Base: Likely to vote EU Referendum EU Referendum Victoria Borwick Total Sex Age Wards General Election Voting Intention 2015 General Election Past Vote Past Vote Past Vote Favourability Borwick, Abouharb, McGhee, Bovill, Rose, Favour- Unfavour- Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ North South OTHER UND Leave Remain CON LAB LD UKIP Other Leave Remain CON LAB LD UKIP Green able able Unweighted Total 497 230 267 105 209 183 286 211 169 116 62 6 26 - 107 125 339 184 130 28 17 20 114 318 115 112 Weighted Total 503 251 252 164 189 149 221 282 178 112 65 5 27 - 104 126 347 208 122 23 17 26 114 328 128 108 Victoria Borwick, the Conservative candidate 178 93 86 28 68 82 44 134 178 - - - - - - 80 88 131 7 2 9 4 71 90 90 17 35.5% 37.0% 33.9% 17.3% 36.0% 54.6% 20.0% 47.5% 100.0% - - - - - - 63.3% 25.3% 62.7% 6.0% 10.9% 52.3% 16.7% 62.1% 27.4% 70.3% 16.0% Rod Abouharb, the Labour candidate 112 56 56 49 42 21 70 43 - 112 - - - - - 20 90 9 70 3 1 5 20 74 18 34 22.3% 22.4% 22.3% 30.1% 22.3% 13.9% 31.6% 15.1% - 100.0% - - - - - 15.9% 25.8% 4.3% 57.9% 14.7% 3.7% 20.7% 17.5% 22.6% 14.1% 31.6% Robin McGhee, the Liberal Democrat candidate 65 38 27 28 19 17 25 40 - - 65 - - - - 1 63 28 11 11 - 4 1 61 6 22 12.9% 15.2% 10.7% 17.1% 10.3% 11.6% 11.4% 14.1% - - 100.0% - - - - 0.7% 18.3% 13.3% 9.4% 47.3% - 15.1% 0.7% 18.7% 4.3% 20.7% Jack Bovill, the UKIP candidate 5 4 1 - 4 1 3 2 - - - 5 - - - 3 2 1 - 1 2 1 3 2 - 1 1.0% 1.5% * - 2.2% 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% - - - 100.0% - - - 2.3% 0.6% * - 3.5% 13.4% 5.0% 2.5% 0.6% - 0.7% Robina Rose, the Green Party candidate 27 14 13 14 4 8 17 10 - - - - 27 - - 5 20 4 6 4 - 10 3 20 6 9 5.3% 5.7% 5.0% 8.7% 2.2% 5.5% 7.5% 3.6% - - - - 100.0% - - 3.7% 5.9% 1.9% 5.0% 16.9% - 37.4% 3.0% 6.1% 4.8% 8.1% Another Party's candidate - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Undecided 104 42 62 42 46 15 58 46 - - - - - - 104 15 76 36 20 1 5 1 13 75 8 23 20.6% 16.6% 24.6% 25.9% 24.5% 10.1% 26.0% 16.4% - - - - - - 100.0% 12.2% 21.8% 17.3% 16.7% 6.6% 30.5% 5.1% 11.8% 22.9% 6.5% 20.8% Refused 12 4 8 1 5 6 5 7 - - - - - - - 2 8 1 6 - - - 3 6 - 2 2.3% 1.6% 3.0% 0.9% 2.4% 3.8% 2.1% 2.5% - - - - - - - 1.9% 2.3% * 4.9% - - - 2.4% 1.7% - 1.9% SIGMA 503 251 252 164 189 149 221 282 178 112 65 5 27 - 104 126 347 208 122 23 17 26 114 328 128 108 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Prepared by Survation Page 6 Kensington Constituency Study Page 7 27 Apr 2017 Table 4 Q2.
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