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Observed Linear Trend in Few Surface Weather Elements Over the Northwest Himalayas (NWH) During Winter Season

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Observed Linear Trend in Few Surface Weather Elements Over the Northwest Himalayas (NWH) During Winter Season Observed linear trend in few surface weather elements over the Northwest Himalayas (NWH) during winter season Dan Singh∗, Vikas Sharma and Vikas Juyal Research and Development Centre, Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment, Sector 37 A, Chandigarh 160 036, India. ∗Corresponding author. e-mail: dan @rediffmail.com Linear trends in few surface weather variables such as air temperatures (maximum temperature, mini- mum temperature), snow and rainy days, snowfall and rainfall amounts, rainfall contribution to seasonal total precipitation amount, seasonal snow cover depth and snow cover days (duration) are examined from winter-time observations at 11 stations located over the Northwest Himalayas (NWH). This study indi- cates that snowfall tends to show a decline in this region, while the rainfall tends to increase during the winter months. Seasonal snow cover depth and seasonal snow cover days also tend to show a decline over the NWH. Decrease in seasonal snow cover depth and duration have reduced the winter period in terms of availability of seasonal snow cover over the NWH during the last 2–3 decades. Other surface weather variables also exhibited significant temporal changes in recent decades. Observed trends in temperature and precipitation over the NWH in recent decades are also supported by long data series of temperature over the western Himalayas (WH), north mountain India (NMI) rainfall data and reanalysis products. 1. Introduction A comprehensive understanding of the observed trends in various surface weather variables, viz., Large climate variability is generally observed over temperatures (maximum temperature, minimum the mountainous regions of larger extent such temperature), precipitation, seasonal snow cover as the Himalayas, the Alps, the Andes and the depth, etc., is quite necessary and of prime con- Rockies, etc. (Beniston et al. 1997). High mountain- cern from the perspective of changing climate. ous regions are the integral part of the worlds’ Only a few recent studies have addressed the major river systems and such areas are essen- observed trends in temperatures, seasonal total tial elements of the global hydrological cycle. In snowfall amount and seasonal total snow water the context of Indian subcontinent, the Himalayas equivalent on a regional scale over the Northwest play a critical role in the hydro-meteorological Himalayas (NWH) (Bhutiyani et al. 2007, 2009; aspects of the major river basins in South Asia Shekhar et al. 2010; Dimri and Das 2011)aswell (Fowler and Archer 2005; Singh and Arora 2007), as the retreat of Himalayan glaciers (Kulkarni i.e., the Himalayas strongly influence the Asian and Bahuguna 2002; Kulkarni and Alex 2003; Summer Monsoon circulation and associated vari- Kulkarni et al. 2005, 2007). Consistent with in- ability. Seasonal snow cover and glaciers in the creasing surface air temperatures in the NWH Himalayas are also important sources of fresh (Pant and Borgaonkar 1984;LiandTang1986; water. Seko and Takahashi 1991; Shrestha et al. 1999; Keywords. Temperature; precipitation; snow cover depth; snow cover duration. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 124, No. 3, April 2015, pp. 553–565 c Indian Academy of Sciences 553 554 Dan Singh et al. Thompson et al. 2000;Kanget al. 2010), the afore- etc., and many other derived variables like snow mentioned studies indicated that maximum and days, rain days, seasonal total rainfall amount and minimum temperatures, and the diurnal tem- snow cover depth, etc., are examined to provide perature ranges also indicate increasing trend a broad overview of trends in surface weather vari- during recent decades (Bhutiyani et al. 2007, 2009) ables over the NWH in recent decades. Surface which is also equally valid for other large mountain- weather variables taken for this study are listed in ous ranges (Beniston et al. 1997; Diaz and Bradley table 1. Trends in temperatures (MX, MN and MNT) 1997; Beniston 2003). However, seasonal totals of and precipitation over the western Himalayas (WH) snowfall amount and snow water equivalent appar- are also examined using regional (sub-divisional) ently indicate a severe inconsistency with other scale temperature data over the WH and north variables in the NWH region (Bhutiyani et al. 2009; mountainous India (NMI) rainfall data downloa- Dimri and Das 2011). ded from the website of the Indian Institute of One can anticipate that the decreasing trend in Tropical Meteorology, Pune (IITM, Pune) (http:// seasonal total snowfall amount may have resulted www.tropmet.res.in)(Pant and Rupa Kumar 1997; from the decreasing snowfall amount of short- Kothawale and Rupa Kumar 2005;Sontakkeet al. time intervals, snow days, and increasing rainfall 2008) and reanalysis products provided by Natio- amount and rain days due to increasing air temper- nal Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCAR/ atures over the NWH. Increasing air temperatures NCEP) (Kalnay et al. 1996). and decreasing seasonal total snowfall amount may Observed linear trends in temperatures and pre- have also influenced seasonal snow cover depth and cipitation at three station locations, viz., D (2192 seasonal snow cover days (duration) during winter m), E (3050 m) and I (3800 m), over the NWH season (November–April). are also compared with the regional scale trends In this view point, a detailed analysis of observed in temperatures and precipitable water content trends of the variables listed in table 1 is under- (PWT) over the WH and the NMI rainfall. Agree- taken in this study. The contrast between precip- ment between regional scale trends in temperature, itation and rainfall is defined as follows. Seasonal PWT and NMI rainfall with the observed trends total rainfall amount (TR) is defined as cumula- in temperature and precipitation over the NWH tive rainfall amount during the entire winter sea- in recent decades indicate that regional scale data son (November–April). Seasonal total precipitation may provide an insight on long term trends in tem- amount(TP)isdefinedasasumofseasonaltotal perature and precipitation over the NWH. Similar- snow water equivalent (water equivalent of seasonal ity of observed trends in each variable at 11 stations total snowfall amount) and seasonal total rainfall located widespread over the NWH is examined as amount (TR). The extension 9–15 represents time the percentage (number) of stations showing same intervals of 9 or 15 hrs. type of trend. This can be taken as an indicator Earlier studies have examined linear trends in air of overall observed trend in each variable over the temperatures, seasonal total snowfall amount and NWH in recent decades. seasonal total snow water equivalent using in situ observations over the NWH (Bhutiyani et al. 2007, 2009; Shekhar et al. 2010;DimriandDas2011). In 2. Study area and data this study, linear trends in basic surface weather variables such as maximum temperature, minimum The study area falls in the Shamshabari Range, the temperature and seasonal total snowfall amount, Pir Panjal Range and the Great Himalayan Range Table 1. List of surface weather variables and their abbreviations. Sl. no. Variable Abbreviation 1 Maximum (minimum) temperature MX(MN) 2 Mean temperature MNT 2 Seasonal total snow (rain) days SFD(RFD) 3 Seasonal total precipitation days TPD 4 Snowfall (rainfall) amount for 9 or 15-hr interval SF9-15(RF9-15) 5 Snowfall amount for 24-hr interval SF-24 6 Seasonal total snowfall (rainfall) amount TS(TR) 7 Seasonal total precipitation amount TP 8 Rainfall contribution to seasonal total precipitation amount RC 9 Seasonal snow cover depth (snow cover days) MSSCD(SCD) 10 Seasonal total precipitable water content PWT Linear trend in surface weather elements over NWH during winter 555 Figure 1. Study stations in different mountain ranges over the Northwest Himalayas (NWH). in the NWH in India (see figure 1), which covers precipitation amount. Snowfall and rainfall amounts the high altitude mountainous regions of the are reported as zero on days when snowfall and north Indian states of Himachal Pradesh (HP) and rainfall do not occur. Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Winter-time data A winter with missing data length for less than (November–April) from 11 stations in different 5 days only is considered for the study. Only those mountain ranges spread across the NWH are used stations are considered where the data reliability for analysis of linear trends in variables listed in is high (Bhutiyani et al. 2007, 2009; Shekhar et al. table 1. Data for this study is obtained from the 2010;DimriandDas2011) and spurious values in data archive of Snow and Avalanche Study Estab- any parameter are excluded from the analysis. It is lishment (SASE), Manali, India (Bhutiyani et al. generally seen that more than 95% of the records 2007, 2009; Shekhar et al. 2010). Due to prevailing of various variables fall within the range of mean sub-zero temperatures and solid precipitation in ±3 standard deviation. Winter data for stations the form of snow at most of the stations during D and E are available continuously for successive November–April, this period is considered as a winters and the data length at stations D, E and I is winter season over the NWH. comparatively more than the other stations (table 2). Daily surface weather data over the NWH are The climatology of MX, MN, TS, TP, SFD and collected at 0300 and 1200 UTC, and the details RFD (see also the explanations for the variables des- can be seen in Bhutiyani et al. (2009) and Dimri cribed in table 1) at 11 stations is given in table 2. and Das (2011). Data collected on snowfall (rain- Large difference in TS (TP) at 11 stations indicates fall) amount at 0300 UTC represents 15-hr interval that precipitation displays a large interannual varia- [i.e., 1200 UTC (previous day)–0300 UTC (current bility and strong regional character over the NWH. day)] cumulative snowfall (rainfall) amount. Data collected on snowfall (rainfall) amount at 1200 3. Methodology UTC represents 9-hr interval (0300–1200 UTC of same day) cumulative snowfall (rainfall) amount.
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