Hubei Province

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Hubei Province HUBEI Qianyu Huang 16-11-2016 Location Hubei lies in Central China, across two important rivers, the Yangtze river and the Han river. Hubei is bordered by the provinces of Henan in the north, Anhui on the east, Jiangxi and Hunan on the south, Chongqing Municipality on the west and Shaanxi on the northwest. Main facts ■ Total area: 185,900 km² ■ Population: 58.5 million (2015) Urban 33.3 million Rural 25.2 million ■ Urbanisation rate: 56.85% ■ Climate: subtropical monsoonal climate average 15°C ~ 17°C ■ Main cities: Wuhan (capital), Yichang, Shiyan, Jingmen GDP and its increasing rate of Hubei 2011- Main facts 2015 3500 25 2955 3000 2737,9 2479,2 20 2500 2225 1963,2 % 2000 15 ■ GDP: ¥2,955 billion in 2015 1500 13,8 10 11,3 1000 10,1 9,7 8,9 GDP billion RMB 5 500 ■ Cultivate area: 3420.51 kilo hectares 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GDP Increasing rate ■ Main crops: grain, oil-bearing crops, rapeseed Main agri-food products of Hubei in 2015 ■ Average disposable income: Production Product (million ton) Increase (%) Grain 27.03 4.6 ¥20,026 (+9.5%) Cotton 0.28 -22.4 Oil-bearing crops 3.45 1.0 Rapeseed 2.59 0.6 Tea 0.26 5.1 Fruits 6.16 0.3 Vegetables 38.49 4.8 Food industry in Hubei Ranking Ranking Main business Province Growth of output of growth income (billion) 8% value rate 21% Shandong 1712 3.58 1 19 Henan 1060 8.3 2 12 57% 14% Hubei 792.5 10.93 3 8 Jiangsu 711.5 8.9 4 11 Sichuan 655.4 5.38 5 16 Agricultural and sideline food processing Guangdong 620.5 3.21 6 20 Food manufacturing 2014 Beverage Tobacco 25/95 of the major growth-oriented industrial clusters are agri-food clusters. Food industrial clusters ■ 25/95 of the major growth-oriented industrial clusters are agri-food clusters ■ Can be divided into 4 types: – Single brand (Baiyunbian, Zhijiang, Daohuaxiang) – Based on special local products (tea, mushroom) – Green/organic food products – Others Snack food ■ 8 types: puffed grains, fried nuts, fried potatoes, fried grains, sweets, meat and fish, dried fruits, dried vegetables ■ Market size in China is 20-30 billion, the increasing rate is expected to be 15% in the following years ■ Comprising 10% in major supermarkets which accounts 5% of the total revenue Snack food • Main consumers are young women • 58.4% consumers are interested in new brands • More focus on natural and healthy food, vitamin fortified products Growing importance of eCommerce Market size of eCommerce % of online users 600 562,7 500 34 33 400 349,1 300 billion 200 93,9 79,3 74,5 100 42,6 0 33 Cellphone Pad PC ■ Largest online market in the world ■ 2/3 of the transactions were done on mobile devices ■ Average age of users is 25 Growing importance of eCommerce Market share of B2C websites of China in 2014 Amazon Tmall(Taobao) Taobao and Jingdong have more than 80% Jingdong of the market share. E-commerce and Cold chain logistics ■ E-commerce has driven the development of cold chain logistics ■ The cold chain logistics industry is expected to develop rapidly as demand for commodities like food, medicine and cosmetics ■ Cold chain distribution and storage centers provide refrigeration services for local agricultural markets ■ In Hubei total 324 food processing and distribution companies have the cold chain business Distribution channels Distribution channels Infrastructure and logistics Highway: 253,000 km Water route: 863.8 km Infrastructure and logistics Wuhan Guangzhou Hongkong Infrastructure and logistics Beijing ■ 73 train lines (2014.8) Nanjing, ■ Jingjiu: Shanghai Beijing <-> Hongkong Hefei ■ Jingguang: Beijing <-> Guangzhou Xiangyu: Xiangyang <-> Chongqing Chongqing, Chengdu Liuzhou Nanchang, Fuzhou Guangzhou, Hongkong Infrastructure and logistics Wuhan (WUH) Yichang (YIH) Xiangyang (XFN) Enshi Shiya Shennongjia Jingzhou Regulations ■ Comply with Food Safety Law ■ Must have Chinese labelling, instruction (sentence 66 of Food Safety Law) – Name, ingredients, place, net weight (solids content etc.), production date (yy.mm.dd), storage instruction, distributor – The Chinese size must be not smaller than foreign words and > 1.8 mm ■ GMP, ISO9002 certified products need to submit support documents for approval ■ Taxes due to products Useful contacts ■ Hubei Food and Drug Administration – http://www.hubfda.gov.cn – Tel: +86 27 87662639 ■ Hubei Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau – 588 Qintai Road Wuhan Hubei – +86 27 58906226 ■ Huazhong Agricultural University – http://www.hzau.edu.cn .
Recommended publications
  • Landscape Analysis of Geographical Names in Hubei Province, China
    Entropy 2014, 16, 6313-6337; doi:10.3390/e16126313 OPEN ACCESS entropy ISSN 1099-4300 www.mdpi.com/journal/entropy Article Landscape Analysis of Geographical Names in Hubei Province, China Xixi Chen 1, Tao Hu 1, Fu Ren 1,2,*, Deng Chen 1, Lan Li 1 and Nan Gao 1 1 School of Resource and Environment Science, Wuhan University, Luoyu Road 129, Wuhan 430079, China; E-Mails: [email protected] (X.C.); [email protected] (T.H.); [email protected] (D.C.); [email protected] (L.L.); [email protected] (N.G.) 2 Key Laboratory of Geographical Information System, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Luoyu Road 129, Wuhan 430079, China * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]; Tel: +86-27-87664557; Fax: +86-27-68778893. External Editor: Hwa-Lung Yu Received: 20 July 2014; in revised form: 31 October 2014 / Accepted: 26 November 2014 / Published: 1 December 2014 Abstract: Hubei Province is the hub of communications in central China, which directly determines its strategic position in the country’s development. Additionally, Hubei Province is well-known for its diverse landforms, including mountains, hills, mounds and plains. This area is called “The Province of Thousand Lakes” due to the abundance of water resources. Geographical names are exclusive names given to physical or anthropogenic geographic entities at specific spatial locations and are important signs by which humans understand natural and human activities. In this study, geographic information systems (GIS) technology is adopted to establish a geodatabase of geographical names with particular characteristics in Hubei Province and extract certain geomorphologic and environmental factors.
    [Show full text]
  • Download Article
    Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, volume 70 International Conference on Economy, Management and Entrepreneurship(ICOEME 2018) Research on the Path of Deep Fusion and Integration Development of Wuhan and Ezhou Lijiang Zhao Chengxiu Teng School of Public Administration School of Public Administration Zhongnan University of Economics and Law Zhongnan University of Economics and Law Wuhan, China 430073 Wuhan, China 430073 Abstract—The integration development of Wuhan and urban integration of Wuhan and Hubei, rely on and Ezhou is a strategic task in Hubei Province. It is of great undertake Wuhan. Ezhou City takes the initiative to revise significance to enhance the primacy of provincial capital, form the overall urban and rural plan. Ezhou’s transportation a new pattern of productivity allocation, drive the development infrastructure is connected to the traffic artery of Wuhan in of provincial economy and upgrade the competitiveness of an all-around and three-dimensional way. At present, there provincial-level administrative regions. This paper discusses are 3 interconnected expressways including Shanghai- the path of deep integration development of Wuhan and Ezhou Chengdu expressway, Wuhan-Ezhou expressway and from the aspects of history, geography, politics and economy, Wugang expressway. In terms of market access, Wuhan East and puts forward some suggestions on relevant management Lake Development Zone and Ezhou Gedian Development principles and policies. Zone try out market access cooperation, and enterprises Keywords—urban regional cooperation; integration registered in Ezhou can be named with “Wuhan”. development; path III. THE SPACE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE INTEGRATION I. INTRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT OF WUHAN AND EZHOU Exploring the path of leapfrog development in inland The degree of integration development of Wuhan and areas is a common issue for the vast areas (that is to say, 500 Ezhou is lower than that of central urban area of Wuhan, and kilometers from the coastline) of China’s hinterland.
    [Show full text]
  • A Simple Model to Assess Wuhan Lock-Down Effect and Region Efforts
    A simple model to assess Wuhan lock-down effect and region efforts during COVID-19 epidemic in China Mainland Zheming Yuan#, Yi Xiao#, Zhijun Dai, Jianjun Huang & Yuan Chen* Hunan Engineering & Technology Research Centre for Agricultural Big Data Analysis & Decision-making, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, Hunan, 410128, China. #These authors contributed equally to this work. * Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to Y.C. (email: [email protected]) (Submitted: 29 February 2020 – Published online: 2 March 2020) DISCLAIMER This paper was submitted to the Bulletin of the World Health Organization and was posted to the COVID-19 open site, according to the protocol for public health emergencies for international concern as described in Vasee Moorthy et al. (http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.251561). The information herein is available for unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is properly cited as indicated by the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organizations licence (CC BY IGO 3.0). RECOMMENDED CITATION Yuan Z, Xiao Y, Dai Z, Huang J & Chen Y. A simple model to assess Wuhan lock-down effect and region efforts during COVID-19 epidemic in China Mainland [Preprint]. Bull World Health Organ. E-pub: 02 March 2020. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.254045 Abstract: Since COVID-19 emerged in early December, 2019 in Wuhan and swept across China Mainland, a series of large-scale public health interventions, especially Wuhan lock-down combined with nationwide traffic restrictions and Stay At Home Movement, have been taken by the government to control the epidemic.
    [Show full text]
  • Verification of Wind Field Retrieval of Doppler Radar Velocity-Azimuth
    5.8 VERIFICATION OF WIND FIELD RETRIEVAL OF DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY-AZIMUTH PROCESSING METHOD Zheng Yongguang1 Liu Shuyuan1 Bai Jie2 Tao Zuyu1 (1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, P. R. China; 2 Beijing Aviation Meteorological Institute, Beijing 100085, P. R. China) 1 PRINCIPLE OF VAP METHOD direction and the radar beam. The VAP (Velocity-Azimuth Processing) method was put forward for retrieving the horizontal wind field from single Doppler radar data by Tao Zuyu (1992). Assume that the horizontal wind vectors are uniform in L a very small azimuth interval (i. e., the local uniformity of wind field) and neglect the vertical fall speed of the r L’ particles of low elevation scan, the formula of horizontal wind retrieval based on the distribution of Doppler velocity profiles with azimuth are as follows Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the relation (see Fig. 1): between the wind vectors and the radial velocities on Wind speed: local uniform wind assumption. v − v v = hr1 hr 2 , 2sinα sin ∆θ Because spatial and temporal resolutions of the Wind direction: Doppler radar data are higher than all of other winds v − v observations, it is difficult to obtain the detail tanα = − hr1 hr 2 cot ∆θ = an vhr1 + vhr 2 information of wind field for objectively evaluating the results derived by VAP method. To prove the validity of α = arctan an, vhr1 − vhr 2 > 0,vhr1 + vhr 2 > 0 the meso-β-scale characteristics on the retrieved wind α = arctan an +π , vhr1 − vhr 2 > 0,vhr1 + vhr 2 < 0 fields by VAP method, Choi et.
    [Show full text]
  • Present Status, Driving Forces and Pattern Optimization of Territory in Hubei Province, China Tingke Wu, Man Yuan
    World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology International Journal of Environmental and Ecological Engineering Vol:13, No:5, 2019 Present Status, Driving Forces and Pattern Optimization of Territory in Hubei Province, China Tingke Wu, Man Yuan market failure [4]. In fact, spatial planning system of China is Abstract—“National Territorial Planning (2016-2030)” was not perfect. It is a crucial problem that land resources have been issued by the State Council of China in 2017. As an important unordered and decentralized developed and overexploited so initiative of putting it into effect, territorial planning at provincial level that ecological space and agricultural space are seriously makes overall arrangement of territorial development, resources and squeezed. In this regard, territorial planning makes crucial environment protection, comprehensive renovation and security system construction. Hubei province, as the pivot of the “Rise of attempt to realize the "Multi-Plan Integration" mode and Central China” national strategy, is now confronted with great contributes to spatial planning system reform. It is also opportunities and challenges in territorial development, protection, conducive to improving land use regulation and enhancing and renovation. Territorial spatial pattern experiences long time territorial spatial governance ability. evolution, influenced by multiple internal and external driving forces. Territorial spatial pattern is the result of land use conversion It is not clear what are the main causes of its formation and what are for a long period. Land use change, as the significant effective ways of optimizing it. By analyzing land use data in 2016, this paper reveals present status of territory in Hubei. Combined with manifestation of human activities’ impact on natural economic and social data and construction information, driving forces ecosystems, has always been a specific field of global climate of territorial spatial pattern are then analyzed.
    [Show full text]
  • Impact of the COVID-19 Event on Air Quality in Central China
    Special Issue on COVID-19 Aerosol Drivers, Impacts and Mitigation (I) Aerosol and Air Quality Research, 20: 915–929, 2020 Copyright © Taiwan Association for Aerosol Research ISSN: 1680-8584 print / 2071-1409 online doi: 10.4209/aaqr.2020.04.0150 Impact of the COVID-19 Event on Air Quality in Central China Kaijie Xu1, Kangping Cui1*, Li-Hao Young2*, Yen-Kung Hsieh3, Ya-Fen Wang4, Jiajia Zhang1, Shun Wan1 1 School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China 2 Department of Occupational Safety and Health, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan 3 Marine Ecology and Conservation Research Center, National Academy of Marine Research, Kaohsiung 80661, Taiwan 4 Department of Environmental Engineering, Chung-Yuan Christian University, Taoyuan 32023, Taiwan ABSTRACT In early 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic spread globally. This study investigated the air quality of three cities in Hubei Province, Wuhan, Jingmen, and Enshi, central China, from January to March 2017–2020 to analyze the impact of the epidemic prevention and control actions on air quality. The results indicated that in the three cities, during February 2020, when the epidemic prevention and control actions were taken, the average concentrations of atmospheric PM2.5, PM10, SO2, –3 –3 CO, and NO2 in the three cities were 46.1 µg m , 50.8 µg m , 2.56 ppb, 0.60 ppm, and 6.70 ppb, and were 30.1%, 40.5%, 33.4%, 27.9%, and 61.4% lower than the levels in February 2017–2019, respectively. However, the average O3 concentration (23.1, 32.4, and 40.2 ppb) in 2020 did not show a significant decrease, and even increased by 12.7%, 14.3%, and 11.6% in January, February, and March, respectively.
    [Show full text]
  • CHN33885 – Three Gorges Dam – Protests – Bilharzia
    Refugee Review Tribunal AUSTRALIA RRT RESEARCH RESPONSE Research Response Number: CHN33885 Country: China Date: 16 October 2008 Keywords: China – CHN33885 – Three Gorges Dam – Protests – Bilharzia This response was prepared by the Research & Information Services Section of the Refugee Review Tribunal (RRT) after researching publicly accessible information currently available to the RRT within time constraints. This response is not, and does not purport to be, conclusive as to the merit of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum. This research response may not, under any circumstance, be cited in a decision or any other document. Anyone wishing to use this information may only cite the primary source material contained herein. Questions 1.What is the measurement “mu”? 2. Information about the Three Gorges Dam, and forced acquisition of land, including compensation payable to displaced migrants. 3. Information about the worm parasite – Bilharzia. 4. Information about Hong Yunzhou, Tan Guotai, Chen Yichun, Zhou Zhirong and Fu Xiancai. 5. Is there any record of protests re the displaced migrants? RESPONSE 1.What is the measurement “mu”? A mu is a land measure equal to 0.067 hectares. Thus 100,000 mu is 6,700 hectares (‘China quintuples arable land use tax’ 2006, China Daily, 6 December http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-12/06/content_6303895.htm – Accessed 16 April 2008 – Attachment 1). 2. Information about the Three Gorges Dam, and forced acquisition of land, including compensation payable to displaced migrants. The Three Gorges Dam, located in Hubei Province, is the world’s largest dam and will be fully operational in 2009.
    [Show full text]
  • Research on Sustainable Land Use Based on Production–Living–Ecological Function: a Case Study of Hubei Province, China
    sustainability Article Research on Sustainable Land Use Based on Production–Living–Ecological Function: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China Chao Wei 1, Qiaowen Lin 2, Li Yu 3,* , Hongwei Zhang 3 , Sheng Ye 3 and Di Zhang 3 1 School of Public Administration, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China; [email protected] 2 School of Management and Economics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; [email protected] 3 School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; [email protected] (H.Z.); [email protected] (S.Y.); [email protected] (D.Z.) * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-185-7163-2717 Abstract: After decades of rapid development, there exists insufficient and contradictory land use in the world, and social, economic and ecological sustainable development is facing severe challenges. Balanced land use functions (LUFs) can promote sustainable land use and reduces land pressures from limited land resources. In this study, we propose a new conceptual index system using the entropy weight method, regional center of gravity theory, coupling coordination degree model and obstacle factor identification model for LUFs assessment and spatial-temporal analysis. This framework was applied to 17 cities in central China’s Hubei Province using 39 indicators in terms of production–living–ecology analysis during 1996–2016. The result shows that (1) LUFs showed an overall upward trend during the study period, while the way of promotion varied with different dimensions. Production function (PF) experienced a continuous enhancement during the study period. Living function (LF) was similar in this aspect, but showed a faster rising tendency.
    [Show full text]
  • Are China's Water Resources for Agriculture Sustainable? Evidence from Hubei Province
    sustainability Article Are China’s Water Resources for Agriculture Sustainable? Evidence from Hubei Province Hao Jin and Shuai Huang * School of Public Economics and Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-21-65903686 Abstract: We assessed the sustainability of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province, a typical agricultural province in central China, for a decade (2008–2018). Since traditional evaluation models often consider only the distance between the evaluation point and the positive or negative ideal solution, we introduce gray correlation analysis and construct a new sustainability evaluation model. Our research results show that only one city had excellent sustainable development capacity of agricultural water resources, and the evaluation value of eight cities fluctuated by around 0.5 (the median of the evaluation result), while the sustainable development capacity of agricultural water resources in other cities was relatively poor. Our findings not only reflect the differences in the natural conditions of water resources among various cities in Hubei, but also the impact of the cities’ policies to ensure efficient agricultural water use for sustainable development. The indicators and methods Citation: Jin, H.; Huang, S. Are in this research are not difficult to obtain in most countries and regions of the world. Therefore, the China’s Water Resources for indicator system we have established by this research could be used to study the sustainability of Agriculture Sustainable? Evidence agricultural water resources in other countries, regions, or cities. from Hubei Province. Sustainability 2021, 13, 3510. https://doi.org/ Keywords: water resources; agricultural water resources; sustainability; gray correlation analysis; 10.3390/su13063510 evaluation model Academic Editors: Daniela Malcangio, Alan Cuthbertson, Juan 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Hubei Province Overview
    Mizuho Bank China Business Promotion Division Hubei Province Overview Abbreviated Name E Provincial Capital Wuhan Administrative 12 cities, 1 autonomous Divisions prefecture, and 64 counties Secretary of the Li Hongzhong; Provincial Party Wang Guosheng Committee; Mayor 2 Size 185,900 km Shaanxi Henan Annual Mean Hubei Anhui 15–17°C Chongqing Temperature Hunan Jiangxi Annual Precipitation 800–1,600 mm Official Government www.hubei.gov.cn URL Note: Personnel information as of September 2014 [Economic Scale] Unit 2012 2013 National Share (%) Ranking Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 100 Million RMB 22,250 24,668 9 4.3 Per Capita GDP RMB 38,572 42,613 14 - Value-added Industrial Output (enterprises above a designated 100 Million RMB 9,552 N.A. N.A. N.A. size) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery 100 Million RMB 4,732 5,161 6 5.3 Output Total Investment in Fixed Assets 100 Million RMB 15,578 20,754 9 4.7 Fiscal Revenue 100 Million RMB 1,823 2,191 11 1.7 Fiscal Expenditure 100 Million RMB 3,760 4,372 11 3.1 Total Retail Sales of Consumer 100 Million RMB 9,563 10,886 6 4.6 Goods Foreign Currency Revenue from Million USD 1,203 1,219 15 2.4 Inbound Tourism Export Value Million USD 19,398 22,838 16 1.0 Import Value Million USD 12,565 13,552 18 0.7 Export Surplus Million USD 6,833 9,286 12 1.4 Total Import and Export Value Million USD 31,964 36,389 17 0.9 Foreign Direct Investment No.
    [Show full text]
  • Summary Environmental Impact Assessment Yichang
    SUMMARY ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT YICHANG-WANZHOU RAILWAY PROJECT IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA June 2003 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 31 May 2003) Currency Unit – Yuan (CNY) CNY1.00 = $0.1208 $1.00 = CNY8.277 ABBREVIATIONS ADB – Asian Development Bank CSRC – China Securities Regulatory Commission EIA – environmental impact assessment EPB – environmental protection bureau FABHP – Fisheries Administration Bureau of Hubei Province GDP – gross domestic product HICAS – Hydrobiology Institute of China Academy of Sciences MOR – Ministry of Railways NH – National Highway NOx – nitrogen oxides pH – measure of acidity/alkalinity PRC – People's Republic of China SEPA – State Environmental Protection Agency YNCZCS – Yichang Natural Conservation Zone for Chinese Sturgeon YWR – Yichang-Wanzhou Railway YRARI – Yangtze River Aquaculture Research Institute WEIGHTS AND MEASURES ° – degrees Celsius ha – hectare kg – kilogram km – kilometer m – meter mm – millimeter s – second t – ton y – year NOTE In this report, "$" refers to US dollars. CONTENTS Page Map 1 Map 2 Map 3 I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT 1 III. DESCRIPTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT 2 A. Physical Resources 2 B. Ecological Resources 2 C. Human and Economic Development 4 D. Quality of Life Values 4 IV. ALTERNATIVES 6 V. ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND MITIGATION MEASURES 7 A. Noise 9 B. Water 10 C. Air 10 D. Solid Waste 11 E. Flora and Fauna 12 F. Historical, Cultural, and Archeological Sites 13 G. Resettlement 13 H. Safety and Health 14 I. Induced Impacts 14 VI. ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 15 A. Environmental Protection Costs 15 B. Environmental Benefits 15 VII. INSTITUTIONAL REQUIREMENTS AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING PROGRAM 16 VIII. PUBLIC PARTICIPATION 18 IX.
    [Show full text]
  • Modelling the Effects of Wuhan's Lockdown During COVID-19, China
    Research Modelling the effects of Wuhan’s lockdown during COVID-19, China Zheming Yuan,a Yi Xiao,a Zhijun Dai,a Jianjun Huang,a Zhenhai Zhangb & Yuan Chenb Objective To design a simple model to assess the effectiveness of measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to different regions of mainland China. Methods We extracted data on population movements from an internet company data set and the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 from government sources. On 23 January 2020 all travel in and out of the city of Wuhan was prohibited to control the spread of the disease. We modelled two key factors affecting the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in regions outside Wuhan by 1 March 2020: (i) the total the number of people leaving Wuhan during 20–26 January 2020; and (ii) the number of seed cases from Wuhan before 19 January 2020, represented by the cumulative number of confirmed cases on 29 January 2020. We constructed a regression model to predict the cumulative number of cases in non-Wuhan regions in three assumed epidemic control scenarios. Findings Delaying the start date of control measures by only 3 days would have increased the estimated 30 699 confirmed cases of COVID-19 by 1 March 2020 in regions outside Wuhan by 34.6% (to 41 330 people). Advancing controls by 3 days would reduce infections by 30.8% (to 21 235 people) with basic control measures or 48.6% (to 15 796 people) with strict control measures. Based on standard residual values from the model, we were able to rank regions which were most effective in controlling the epidemic.
    [Show full text]