46050-002: Hubei Huanggang Urban Environment Improvement Project

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

46050-002: Hubei Huanggang Urban Environment Improvement Project Social Monitoring Report #7 Semiannual Report January 2020 People's Republic of China: Hubei Huanggang Urban Environment Improvement Project Prepared by National Research Center for Resettlement, Hohai University for the People's Republic of China and the Asian Development Bank. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 15 December 2019) Currency unit – yuan (CNY)} CNY1.00 = $0.1447 $1.00 = CNY6.9109 ABBREVIATIONS ADB – Asian Development Bank AH – affected household AP – affected person FGD – focus group discussion GAP – gender action plan HD – house demolition HMG – Huanggang Municipal Government HPMO – Huanggang Project Management Office HUCIC – Huanggang Urban Construction Investment Co. Ltd. IA – implementing agency LA – land acquisition M&E – monitoring and evaluation NED – New Eastern District NRCR – National Research Center for Resettlement PIC – project implementation consulting PPMS – project performance management system RP – resettlement plan SAP – social action plan WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 hectare – 15 mu NOTE In this report, "$" refers to US dollars. This social monitoring report is a document of the borrower. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of ADB's Board of Directors, Management, or staff, and may be preliminary in nature. In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. ADB-financed Huanggang Integrated Urban Environment Improvement Project External Resettlement and Social Monitoring and Evaluation Report (No.7) National Research Center for Resettlement January 2020 M&E agency National Research Center for Resettlement, Hohai University (NRCR) Project leader Chen Shaojun Prepared by Zhao Yaoyang, Shi Lei, Cao Xiuling, Zhang Yu, Chen Shaojun Address Hohai University, no.8 Focheng West Road, Jiangning District, Nanjing, Jiangsu Postcode 210098 Tel 15366141153 Fax 025-83718914 E-mail [email protected] Contents 1 Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Project Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Overview of the RP ....................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 External Resettlement M&E ......................................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 Scope ................................................................................................................................ 3 1.3.2 Key Points ......................................................................................................................... 4 1.3.3 Procedure .......................................................................................................................... 4 1.3.4 Methods ............................................................................................................................ 4 2 Organizational Structure ........................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Agencies ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Capacity ........................................................................................................................................ 5 2.3 Evaluation and Suggestions ......................................................................................................... 6 2.3.1 Evaluation ......................................................................................................................... 6 2.3.2 Suggestions: ..................................................................................................................... 7 3 Resettlement Implementation M&E .......................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Land Approval Progress ............................................................................................................... 8 3.2 Construction Progress .................................................................................................................. 8 3.3 Change of Resettlement Impacts ............................................................................................... 10 3.4 Resettlement Progress ............................................................................................................... 11 3.4.1 LA .................................................................................................................................... 11 3.4.2 Demolition of Residential Houses ................................................................................... 12 3.4.3 Demolition of Non-residential Properties ........................................................................ 12 3.4.4 Attachments .................................................................................................................... 13 3.5 Fund Disbursement .................................................................................................................... 13 3.5.1 LA .................................................................................................................................... 13 3.5.2 HD ................................................................................................................................... 14 3.5.3 Fund Disbursement Process ........................................................................................... 14 3.6 Resettlement Policies and Rates ................................................................................................ 14 3.6.1 LA .................................................................................................................................... 14 3.6.2 HD ................................................................................................................................... 15 3.6.3 Young Crops and Attachments........................................................................................ 15 3.6.4 Tax Rates ........................................................................................................................ 15 3.7 Evaluation and Suggestions ....................................................................................................... 15 3.7.1 Evaluation ....................................................................................................................... 15 3.7.2 Suggestions .................................................................................................................... 16 4 Livelihood Restoration ............................................................................................................................ 17 4.1 Cash Compensation ................................................................................................................... 17 4.2 Social Security ............................................................................................................................ 17 4.3 Agricultural Restructuring Measures ........................................................................................... 17 4.3.1 Crop Cultivation............................................................................................................... 17 4.3.2 Aquaculture ..................................................................................................................... 18 4.4 Nonagricultural Employment Measures ...................................................................................... 18 4.4.1 Commercial Development ............................................................................................... 18 4.4.2 Off-farm Employment ...................................................................................................... 18 4.4.3 Independent Economic Development ............................................................................. 19 4.4.4 Jobs Generated by the Project ....................................................................................... 20 4.5 Support for Vulnerable Groups ................................................................................................... 20 4.6 Evaluation and Suggestions ....................................................................................................... 20 4.5.1 Evaluation ....................................................................................................................... 20 4.5.2 Suggestion ...................................................................................................................... 21 5 Sampling Survey .................................................................................................................................... 22 5.1 Survey Information ...................................................................................................................... 22 5.2Basic Information ......................................................................................................................... 22 5.2.1 Population and age ........................................................................................................
Recommended publications
  • Landscape Analysis of Geographical Names in Hubei Province, China
    Entropy 2014, 16, 6313-6337; doi:10.3390/e16126313 OPEN ACCESS entropy ISSN 1099-4300 www.mdpi.com/journal/entropy Article Landscape Analysis of Geographical Names in Hubei Province, China Xixi Chen 1, Tao Hu 1, Fu Ren 1,2,*, Deng Chen 1, Lan Li 1 and Nan Gao 1 1 School of Resource and Environment Science, Wuhan University, Luoyu Road 129, Wuhan 430079, China; E-Mails: [email protected] (X.C.); [email protected] (T.H.); [email protected] (D.C.); [email protected] (L.L.); [email protected] (N.G.) 2 Key Laboratory of Geographical Information System, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Luoyu Road 129, Wuhan 430079, China * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]; Tel: +86-27-87664557; Fax: +86-27-68778893. External Editor: Hwa-Lung Yu Received: 20 July 2014; in revised form: 31 October 2014 / Accepted: 26 November 2014 / Published: 1 December 2014 Abstract: Hubei Province is the hub of communications in central China, which directly determines its strategic position in the country’s development. Additionally, Hubei Province is well-known for its diverse landforms, including mountains, hills, mounds and plains. This area is called “The Province of Thousand Lakes” due to the abundance of water resources. Geographical names are exclusive names given to physical or anthropogenic geographic entities at specific spatial locations and are important signs by which humans understand natural and human activities. In this study, geographic information systems (GIS) technology is adopted to establish a geodatabase of geographical names with particular characteristics in Hubei Province and extract certain geomorphologic and environmental factors.
    [Show full text]
  • Download Article
    Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, volume 70 International Conference on Economy, Management and Entrepreneurship(ICOEME 2018) Research on the Path of Deep Fusion and Integration Development of Wuhan and Ezhou Lijiang Zhao Chengxiu Teng School of Public Administration School of Public Administration Zhongnan University of Economics and Law Zhongnan University of Economics and Law Wuhan, China 430073 Wuhan, China 430073 Abstract—The integration development of Wuhan and urban integration of Wuhan and Hubei, rely on and Ezhou is a strategic task in Hubei Province. It is of great undertake Wuhan. Ezhou City takes the initiative to revise significance to enhance the primacy of provincial capital, form the overall urban and rural plan. Ezhou’s transportation a new pattern of productivity allocation, drive the development infrastructure is connected to the traffic artery of Wuhan in of provincial economy and upgrade the competitiveness of an all-around and three-dimensional way. At present, there provincial-level administrative regions. This paper discusses are 3 interconnected expressways including Shanghai- the path of deep integration development of Wuhan and Ezhou Chengdu expressway, Wuhan-Ezhou expressway and from the aspects of history, geography, politics and economy, Wugang expressway. In terms of market access, Wuhan East and puts forward some suggestions on relevant management Lake Development Zone and Ezhou Gedian Development principles and policies. Zone try out market access cooperation, and enterprises Keywords—urban regional cooperation; integration registered in Ezhou can be named with “Wuhan”. development; path III. THE SPACE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE INTEGRATION I. INTRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT OF WUHAN AND EZHOU Exploring the path of leapfrog development in inland The degree of integration development of Wuhan and areas is a common issue for the vast areas (that is to say, 500 Ezhou is lower than that of central urban area of Wuhan, and kilometers from the coastline) of China’s hinterland.
    [Show full text]
  • Verification of Wind Field Retrieval of Doppler Radar Velocity-Azimuth
    5.8 VERIFICATION OF WIND FIELD RETRIEVAL OF DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY-AZIMUTH PROCESSING METHOD Zheng Yongguang1 Liu Shuyuan1 Bai Jie2 Tao Zuyu1 (1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, P. R. China; 2 Beijing Aviation Meteorological Institute, Beijing 100085, P. R. China) 1 PRINCIPLE OF VAP METHOD direction and the radar beam. The VAP (Velocity-Azimuth Processing) method was put forward for retrieving the horizontal wind field from single Doppler radar data by Tao Zuyu (1992). Assume that the horizontal wind vectors are uniform in L a very small azimuth interval (i. e., the local uniformity of wind field) and neglect the vertical fall speed of the r L’ particles of low elevation scan, the formula of horizontal wind retrieval based on the distribution of Doppler velocity profiles with azimuth are as follows Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the relation (see Fig. 1): between the wind vectors and the radial velocities on Wind speed: local uniform wind assumption. v − v v = hr1 hr 2 , 2sinα sin ∆θ Because spatial and temporal resolutions of the Wind direction: Doppler radar data are higher than all of other winds v − v observations, it is difficult to obtain the detail tanα = − hr1 hr 2 cot ∆θ = an vhr1 + vhr 2 information of wind field for objectively evaluating the results derived by VAP method. To prove the validity of α = arctan an, vhr1 − vhr 2 > 0,vhr1 + vhr 2 > 0 the meso-β-scale characteristics on the retrieved wind α = arctan an +π , vhr1 − vhr 2 > 0,vhr1 + vhr 2 < 0 fields by VAP method, Choi et.
    [Show full text]
  • CHN33885 – Three Gorges Dam – Protests – Bilharzia
    Refugee Review Tribunal AUSTRALIA RRT RESEARCH RESPONSE Research Response Number: CHN33885 Country: China Date: 16 October 2008 Keywords: China – CHN33885 – Three Gorges Dam – Protests – Bilharzia This response was prepared by the Research & Information Services Section of the Refugee Review Tribunal (RRT) after researching publicly accessible information currently available to the RRT within time constraints. This response is not, and does not purport to be, conclusive as to the merit of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum. This research response may not, under any circumstance, be cited in a decision or any other document. Anyone wishing to use this information may only cite the primary source material contained herein. Questions 1.What is the measurement “mu”? 2. Information about the Three Gorges Dam, and forced acquisition of land, including compensation payable to displaced migrants. 3. Information about the worm parasite – Bilharzia. 4. Information about Hong Yunzhou, Tan Guotai, Chen Yichun, Zhou Zhirong and Fu Xiancai. 5. Is there any record of protests re the displaced migrants? RESPONSE 1.What is the measurement “mu”? A mu is a land measure equal to 0.067 hectares. Thus 100,000 mu is 6,700 hectares (‘China quintuples arable land use tax’ 2006, China Daily, 6 December http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-12/06/content_6303895.htm – Accessed 16 April 2008 – Attachment 1). 2. Information about the Three Gorges Dam, and forced acquisition of land, including compensation payable to displaced migrants. The Three Gorges Dam, located in Hubei Province, is the world’s largest dam and will be fully operational in 2009.
    [Show full text]
  • Research on Sustainable Land Use Based on Production–Living–Ecological Function: a Case Study of Hubei Province, China
    sustainability Article Research on Sustainable Land Use Based on Production–Living–Ecological Function: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China Chao Wei 1, Qiaowen Lin 2, Li Yu 3,* , Hongwei Zhang 3 , Sheng Ye 3 and Di Zhang 3 1 School of Public Administration, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China; [email protected] 2 School of Management and Economics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; [email protected] 3 School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; [email protected] (H.Z.); [email protected] (S.Y.); [email protected] (D.Z.) * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-185-7163-2717 Abstract: After decades of rapid development, there exists insufficient and contradictory land use in the world, and social, economic and ecological sustainable development is facing severe challenges. Balanced land use functions (LUFs) can promote sustainable land use and reduces land pressures from limited land resources. In this study, we propose a new conceptual index system using the entropy weight method, regional center of gravity theory, coupling coordination degree model and obstacle factor identification model for LUFs assessment and spatial-temporal analysis. This framework was applied to 17 cities in central China’s Hubei Province using 39 indicators in terms of production–living–ecology analysis during 1996–2016. The result shows that (1) LUFs showed an overall upward trend during the study period, while the way of promotion varied with different dimensions. Production function (PF) experienced a continuous enhancement during the study period. Living function (LF) was similar in this aspect, but showed a faster rising tendency.
    [Show full text]
  • 46050-002: Hubei Huanggang Urban Environment Improvement Project
    Environmental Impact Assessment (2nd Addendum) September 2018 PRC: Hubei Huanggang Urban Environment Improvement Project Prepared by Huanggang Municipal Government for the Asian Development Bank. {This is a revised version of the draft originally posted in January 2014 available on https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/hubei-huanggang-integrated-urban-environment- improvement-project-eia.} CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 31 August 2018) Currency unit – yuan (CNY) CNY1.00 = $0.14602 $1.00 = CNY6.84 In this report, $ refers to US dollars. ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank CN Cyanide CNY Chinese yuan EA Executing agency EHS Environmental Health System EIA Environmental impact assessment EIR Environmental impact report EIT Environmental impact table EMP Environmental management plan EMS Environmental monitoring station FSR Feasibility study report HEPB Huanggang Environmental Protection Bureau HMG Huanggang Municipal Government LIEC Loan implementation environmental consultant NO2 Nitrogen dioxide PMO Project management office SO2 Sulfur dioxide TN Total Nitrogen TP Total Phosphorus WWTP Wastewater treatment plant WEIGHTS AND MEASURES ha hectare hr hour kg/d kilogram per day km kilometer km2 square kilometer km/hr kilometer per hour L liter m meter m/s meter per second m2 square meter m3 cubic meter m3/d cubic meter per day cubic meter per m3/s second mg/kg milligram per kilogram mg/L milligram per liter NOTE In the report, ―$ refers to US dollars. This addendum to the environmental impact assessment is a document of the borrower. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of ADB's Board of Directors, Management, or staff, and may be preliminary in nature. Your attention is directed to the “terms of use” section on ADB’s website.
    [Show full text]
  • Are China's Water Resources for Agriculture Sustainable? Evidence from Hubei Province
    sustainability Article Are China’s Water Resources for Agriculture Sustainable? Evidence from Hubei Province Hao Jin and Shuai Huang * School of Public Economics and Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-21-65903686 Abstract: We assessed the sustainability of agricultural water resources in Hubei Province, a typical agricultural province in central China, for a decade (2008–2018). Since traditional evaluation models often consider only the distance between the evaluation point and the positive or negative ideal solution, we introduce gray correlation analysis and construct a new sustainability evaluation model. Our research results show that only one city had excellent sustainable development capacity of agricultural water resources, and the evaluation value of eight cities fluctuated by around 0.5 (the median of the evaluation result), while the sustainable development capacity of agricultural water resources in other cities was relatively poor. Our findings not only reflect the differences in the natural conditions of water resources among various cities in Hubei, but also the impact of the cities’ policies to ensure efficient agricultural water use for sustainable development. The indicators and methods Citation: Jin, H.; Huang, S. Are in this research are not difficult to obtain in most countries and regions of the world. Therefore, the China’s Water Resources for indicator system we have established by this research could be used to study the sustainability of Agriculture Sustainable? Evidence agricultural water resources in other countries, regions, or cities. from Hubei Province. Sustainability 2021, 13, 3510. https://doi.org/ Keywords: water resources; agricultural water resources; sustainability; gray correlation analysis; 10.3390/su13063510 evaluation model Academic Editors: Daniela Malcangio, Alan Cuthbertson, Juan 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Hubei Province Overview
    Mizuho Bank China Business Promotion Division Hubei Province Overview Abbreviated Name E Provincial Capital Wuhan Administrative 12 cities, 1 autonomous Divisions prefecture, and 64 counties Secretary of the Li Hongzhong; Provincial Party Wang Guosheng Committee; Mayor 2 Size 185,900 km Shaanxi Henan Annual Mean Hubei Anhui 15–17°C Chongqing Temperature Hunan Jiangxi Annual Precipitation 800–1,600 mm Official Government www.hubei.gov.cn URL Note: Personnel information as of September 2014 [Economic Scale] Unit 2012 2013 National Share (%) Ranking Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 100 Million RMB 22,250 24,668 9 4.3 Per Capita GDP RMB 38,572 42,613 14 - Value-added Industrial Output (enterprises above a designated 100 Million RMB 9,552 N.A. N.A. N.A. size) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery 100 Million RMB 4,732 5,161 6 5.3 Output Total Investment in Fixed Assets 100 Million RMB 15,578 20,754 9 4.7 Fiscal Revenue 100 Million RMB 1,823 2,191 11 1.7 Fiscal Expenditure 100 Million RMB 3,760 4,372 11 3.1 Total Retail Sales of Consumer 100 Million RMB 9,563 10,886 6 4.6 Goods Foreign Currency Revenue from Million USD 1,203 1,219 15 2.4 Inbound Tourism Export Value Million USD 19,398 22,838 16 1.0 Import Value Million USD 12,565 13,552 18 0.7 Export Surplus Million USD 6,833 9,286 12 1.4 Total Import and Export Value Million USD 31,964 36,389 17 0.9 Foreign Direct Investment No.
    [Show full text]
  • Supplementary Data
    Supplementary data Figures Figure S1 Figure S1 Top cities with the highest migrants before Spring Festival A-C, Top cities with highest migrant on Jan 22, 2020. D-F, Top cities with highest migrant on Jan 23, 2020. G-I, Top cities with highest migrant on Jan 24, 2020. A, D, G, Top 50 hot cities with high export migrants; B, E, H, Top 10 cities with high export migrant; C, F, I, Top 10 cities with high import migrants. Figure S2 Figure S2 Migration and transport index during spring festival A, Emigration from Wuhan City on Jan 23, 2020; B, Emigration from Hubei province on Jan 23, 2020; C, Traffic congestion index during 7-day festival holiday in 2020 and 2019; D, Population mobility index during 7-day festival holiday in 2020 and 2019. Tables Table S1 Hot spot value and relative risk with case number and incidence Case Number Incidence City Name Hot value Relative Risk Hot value Relative Risk Trend Huanggang 0.7201 0.133 0.4678 0.485 Ezhou City 0.5833 0.346 0.4714 0.5067 Suizhou 0.4106 0.8371 0.4739 0.4732 Wuhan 0.7822 1.77E-04 0.4766 0.4987 Yellowstone 0.6053 0.4126 0.4822 0.4702 Xiangyang 0.3047 0.8646 0.4933 0.5275 Xiaogan 0.6284 0.536 0.4941 0.4689 Xianning 0.5739 0.5933 0.4946 0.484 Tianmen 0.4501 0.5174 0.5035 0.4792 Qianjiang 0.3958 0.4191 0.504 0.4736 Shiyan 0.3538 0.8206 0.5064 0.5596 Jingzhou 0.5947 0.2856 0.5101 0.4826 Xiantao 0.5631 0.1536 0.5115 0.4868 Jingmen 0.4774 0.7351 0.5278 0.501 Yichang 0.3634 0.7426 0.5324 0.5537 Enshi 0.369 0.7142 0.5378 0.5239 Table S2 Migration index of Wuhan city and Hubei province in 2020 and
    [Show full text]
  • COVID-19 and China: a Chronology of Events (December 2019-January 2020)
    COVID-19 and China: A Chronology of Events (December 2019-January 2020) Updated May 13, 2020 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R46354 SUMMARY R46354 COVID-19 and China: A Chronology of Events May 13, 2020 (December 2019-January 2020) Susan V. Lawrence In Congress, multiple bills and resolutions have been introduced related to China’s Specialist in Asian Affairs handling of a novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, that expanded to become the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic. This report provides a timeline of key developments in the early weeks of the pandemic, based on available public reporting. It also considers issues raised by the timeline, including the timeliness of China’s information sharing with the World Health Organization (WHO), gaps in early information China shared with the world, and episodes in which Chinese authorities sought to discipline those who publicly shared information about aspects of the epidemic. Prior to January 20, 2020—the day Chinese authorities acknowledged person-to-person transmission of the novel coronavirus—the public record provides little indication that China’s top leaders saw containment of the epidemic as a high priority. Thereafter, however, Chinese authorities appear to have taken aggressive measures to contain the virus. The Appendix includes a concise version of the timeline. A condensed version is below: Late December: Hospitals in Wuhan, China, identify cases of pneumonia of unknown origin. December 30: The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issues “urgent notices” to city hospitals about cases of atypical pneumonia linked to the city’s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. The notices leak online.
    [Show full text]
  • Summary Environmental Impact Assessment Yichang
    SUMMARY ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT YICHANG-WANZHOU RAILWAY PROJECT IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA June 2003 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 31 May 2003) Currency Unit – Yuan (CNY) CNY1.00 = $0.1208 $1.00 = CNY8.277 ABBREVIATIONS ADB – Asian Development Bank CSRC – China Securities Regulatory Commission EIA – environmental impact assessment EPB – environmental protection bureau FABHP – Fisheries Administration Bureau of Hubei Province GDP – gross domestic product HICAS – Hydrobiology Institute of China Academy of Sciences MOR – Ministry of Railways NH – National Highway NOx – nitrogen oxides pH – measure of acidity/alkalinity PRC – People's Republic of China SEPA – State Environmental Protection Agency YNCZCS – Yichang Natural Conservation Zone for Chinese Sturgeon YWR – Yichang-Wanzhou Railway YRARI – Yangtze River Aquaculture Research Institute WEIGHTS AND MEASURES ° – degrees Celsius ha – hectare kg – kilogram km – kilometer m – meter mm – millimeter s – second t – ton y – year NOTE In this report, "$" refers to US dollars. CONTENTS Page Map 1 Map 2 Map 3 I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT 1 III. DESCRIPTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT 2 A. Physical Resources 2 B. Ecological Resources 2 C. Human and Economic Development 4 D. Quality of Life Values 4 IV. ALTERNATIVES 6 V. ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND MITIGATION MEASURES 7 A. Noise 9 B. Water 10 C. Air 10 D. Solid Waste 11 E. Flora and Fauna 12 F. Historical, Cultural, and Archeological Sites 13 G. Resettlement 13 H. Safety and Health 14 I. Induced Impacts 14 VI. ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 15 A. Environmental Protection Costs 15 B. Environmental Benefits 15 VII. INSTITUTIONAL REQUIREMENTS AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING PROGRAM 16 VIII. PUBLIC PARTICIPATION 18 IX.
    [Show full text]
  • Modelling the Effects of Wuhan's Lockdown During COVID-19, China
    Research Modelling the effects of Wuhan’s lockdown during COVID-19, China Zheming Yuan,a Yi Xiao,a Zhijun Dai,a Jianjun Huang,a Zhenhai Zhangb & Yuan Chenb Objective To design a simple model to assess the effectiveness of measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to different regions of mainland China. Methods We extracted data on population movements from an internet company data set and the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 from government sources. On 23 January 2020 all travel in and out of the city of Wuhan was prohibited to control the spread of the disease. We modelled two key factors affecting the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in regions outside Wuhan by 1 March 2020: (i) the total the number of people leaving Wuhan during 20–26 January 2020; and (ii) the number of seed cases from Wuhan before 19 January 2020, represented by the cumulative number of confirmed cases on 29 January 2020. We constructed a regression model to predict the cumulative number of cases in non-Wuhan regions in three assumed epidemic control scenarios. Findings Delaying the start date of control measures by only 3 days would have increased the estimated 30 699 confirmed cases of COVID-19 by 1 March 2020 in regions outside Wuhan by 34.6% (to 41 330 people). Advancing controls by 3 days would reduce infections by 30.8% (to 21 235 people) with basic control measures or 48.6% (to 15 796 people) with strict control measures. Based on standard residual values from the model, we were able to rank regions which were most effective in controlling the epidemic.
    [Show full text]