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November 1, 2012 Morning November 1, 2012 KOREA Morning Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) GS Home Shopping (Trading Buy/TP: W156,000) Raise TP KOSPI 1,912.06 12.48 0.66 3Q review: Margins soared from improved product mix KOSPI 200 250.18 1.66 0.67 KOSDAQ 508.31 6.00 1.19 Shinhan Financial Group (Buy/TP: W49,700) Leader of the pack Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value Samsung F&M (Buy/TP: W303,000) KOSPI 392,656 3,752 Free of negative issues KOSPI 200 56,849 2,745 KOSDAQ 459,938 1,742 Hyundai M&F (Buy/TP: W47,000) Raise TP Market Cap (Wbn) Solid earnings stability; Smooth sales of new contracts Value KOSPI 1,103,467 Dongbu Insurance (Buy/TP: W69,000) KOSDAQ 111,835 Likely to stand out amongst second-tier peers KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net S-Oil (Buy/TP: W130,000) Foreign 812 854 -43 Delayed earnings improvement at LS Cable & System Institutional 1,091 879 212 Retail 1,833 2,000 -167 LS (Buy/TP: W107,000) Lower TP Delayed earnings improvement at LSCS KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net CJ CGV (Buy/TP: W42,000) Raise TP Foreign 73 63 10 Strong popularity of Masquerade likely to drive 4Q earnings Institutional 88 71 17 Retail 1,580 1,604 -24 Economy & Strategy Update Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Fixed Income Monthly (Issue) KOSPI 584 481 103 Haste makes waste KOSDAQ 10 12 -1 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 564 258 73 KOSDAQ 673 245 71 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 1,310,000 12,000 266 KODEX LEVERAGE 11,580 150 169 Hynix 24,850 550 142 Samsung SDI 137,000 -7,000 123 Samsung Corp. 59,300 -2,300 113 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Openbase 2,760 360 66 YG Entertainment 74,000 -2,900 35 ydonline 6,600 0 27 OSSTEM IMPLANT 31,600 1,700 25 Dragonfly 16,350 2,100 25 Note: As of October 31, 2012 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Company November 1, 2012 Retail GS Home Shopping (028150 KQ) Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Mina Kim 3Q review: Margins soared from improved product mix +822-768-4163 [email protected] Raise TP to W156,000; Maintain Trading Buy Jieun Lee +822-768-3265 We maintain our Trading Buy call on GS Home Shopping (GSHS), but raise our target [email protected] price by 38% to W156,000 (from W113,000). Our sharp upward revision to our target price is based on the following: 1) We changed our base year for valuation from 2012 to 2013. 2) We raised our target P/E from 9x to 10x (the P/E level of its competitors). Trading Buy (Maintain) Although GSHSÊ margins have been weaker than those competitors, GSHS is likely Target Price (12M, W) 156,000 to continue to improve margins by reducing costs. Share Price (10/31/12, W) 139,100 Expected Return (%) 12.1 3) We revised up our 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates by 7.7% and 9.8%, respectively. EPS Growth (12F, %) -53.9 Market EPS Growth (12F, %) 9.0 3Q review: Margins surged from an improved product mix P/E (12F, x) 10.3 Market P/E (12F, x) 10.2 For 3Q, GSHS posted gross merchandise sales (GMS) of W703.2bn (up 22.8% YoY), KOSDAQ 508.31 and net revenues of W241.6bn (up 15.8% YoY) under non-consolidated K-IFRS. Market Cap (Wbn) 913 GMS at the TV home-shopping, internet-shopping, and catalog-shopping divisions Shares Outstanding (mn) 7 came in at W440.4bn (up 27.3% YoY), W209.8bn (up 11% YoY), and W26.6bn (up Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 17 1.1% YoY), respectively. The companyÊs 3Q top-line growth was largely aided by Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 2 robust sales of physical products. Dividend Yield (12F, %) 2.2 Free Float (%) 66.0 GSHSÊ 3Q operating profit jumped 29.6% YoY to W30.1bn. OP margin (based on 52-Week Low (W) 88,600 GMS) improved 0.2%p YoY to 4.3%. Despite an increase in SO commission 52-Week High (W) 140,700 expenses, the companyÊs gross profit margins climbed on the back of an Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 0.30 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 2.0 improvement in product mix. In particular, the company reduced the proportion of Foreign Ownership (%) 28.6 low-margin home electronics sales (out of overall sales) to boost the margins of its Major Shareholder(s) internet shopping division. 3Q pretax profit leaped 25.9% YoY to W35.4bn, and net GS (30%) profit jumped 28.6% YoY to W27.2bn. Truston Asset Mngt. (9.18%) Matthews International Capital Needs to offset an increase in SO commissions Management (7.35%) Price Performance Driven by expectations of a 3Q earnings improvement, GSHSÊ shares have risen by (%) 1M 6M 12M 25.9% over the last month, outperforming the KOSPI by 30.1%. Going forward, the Absolute 25.9 25.2 29.4 companyÊs shares will likely hinge on the potential for additional increases in SO Relative 30.1 28.7 29.2 commissions paid to channel operators, as well as the acquisition of new growth Key Business engines. Given that GSHS has no stake in channel operators (unlike CJ O Shopping GS Home Shopping operates CATV, and internet and catalog home-shopping and Hyundai Home Shopping), the company is highly exposed to the risk of businesses in Korea and overseas. commission hikes. SO commissions have been raised by more than 20% YoY thus far this year, and they are likely to increase 15% YoY in 2013, given that IPTV and satellite TV operators are also demanding increases. In order to offset these FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Share price (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (X) (X) (X) 130 KOSDAQ 120 12/10 792 117 14.7 97 14,816 127 -97 24.6 7.4 1.7 5.4 110 12/11 906 106 11.7 192 29,322 116 244 37.1 4.0 1.3 1.3 100 12/12F 1,001 113 11.2 89 13,526 117 -192 13.8 10.3 1.4 4.9 90 80 12/13F 1,124 127 11.3 103 15,644 132 83 14.3 8.9 1.2 4.0 70 12/14F 1,263 144 11.4 118 17,988 149 93 14.6 7.7 1.0 3.2 60 Notes: All figures are based on non-consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests 10/11 2/12 6/12 10/12 Sources: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Company November 1, 2012 commission expenses, GSHS is expected to need to further improve margins by revamping its product mix. Table 1. 3Q earnings (Wbn) 3Q12P Growth rate (%) 3Q11 2Q12 Actual KDB Daewoo Consensus QoQ YoY GMS 572.7 747.1 703.2 622.3 658.7 -5.9 22.8 CATV 346.0 430.3 440.4 - - 2.3 27.3 Internet 189.0 254.1 209.8 - - -17.4 11.0 Catalog/Others 37.7 62.7 53.0 - - -15.5 40.6 Net sales 208.6 244.5 241.6 220.2 233.5 -1.2 15.8 Operating profit 23.2 22.4 30.1 23.9 24.0 34.3 29.6 Pretax profit 28.1 28.5 35.4 29.1 30.8 24.2 25.9 Net profit 21.2 21.0 27.2 22.2 22.8 29.8 28.6 OP margin (%) 4.1 3.0 4.3 3.8 3.6 1.3%p 0.2%p Pretax margin (%) 4.9 3.8 5.0 4.7 4.7 1.2%p 0.1%p Net margin (%) 3.7 2.8 3.9 3.6 3.5 1.1%p 0.2%p Note: Margins are based on GMS Sources: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Table 2.
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