Global variation in the thermal tolerances of plants Lesley T. Lancaster1* and Aelys M. Humphreys2,3 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA (2020) 1 School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, United Kingdom. ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3135-4835 2Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden. 3Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2515-6509 * Corresponding author:
[email protected] Significance Statement Knowledge of how thermal tolerances are distributed across major clades and biogeographic regions is important for understanding biome formation and climate change responses. However, most research has concentrated on animals, and we lack equivalent knowledge for other organisms. Here we compile global data on heat and cold tolerances of plants, showing that many, but not all, broad-scale patterns known from animals are also true for plants. Importantly, failing to account simultaneously for influences of local environments, and evolutionary and biogeographic histories, can mislead conclusions about underlying drivers. Our study unravels how and why plant cold and heat tolerances vary globally, and highlights that all plants, particularly at mid-to-high latitudes and in their non-hardened state, are vulnerable to ongoing climate change. Abstract Thermal macrophysiology is an established research field that has led to well-described patterns in the global structuring of climate adaptation and risk. However, since it was developed primarily in animals we lack information on how general these patterns are across organisms. This is alarming if we are to understand how thermal tolerances are distributed globally, improve predictions of climate change, and mitigate effects.