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Xtep International (1368 China/Hong Kong China Property China Property Investment Update 19 December 2013 Christmas gifts from the China Property sector We have just returned from site visits and reverse road Key indicators for Chinese property developers shows in Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangxi and Sichuan where we Target learned: (1) Branded large players dominate the upper and Stock CCBIS FY14 prices 2014F 2014F high-end housing markets in tier-3 and -4 cities, Company code rating* NAV (HK$) P/E (x) P/B (x) accelerating market consolidation by squeezing out local Agile 3383 HK U 17.60 7.92 3.6 0.6 and small players; and (2) active land banking and strong COLI 688 HK O 33.20 29.88 7.6 1.5 growth in GFA new starts will lead to a year of destocking in Country Garden 2007 HK N 7.60 5.70 7.0 1.4 2014 while intensive new launches will help curb rapidly CR Land 1109 HK O 32.20 27.37 10.3 1.3 rising ASPs. Negative feedback from commercial space Greentown 3900 HK O 23.60 17.70 2.7 0.6 and the oversupply means branded commercial players are Shimao 813 HK O 28.20 23.97 6.3 1.1 facing fierce competition. Only the largest projects Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK N 7.80 5.07 7.9 0.6 occupying prime sites will survive. KWG 1813 HK O 11.60 6.96 3.2 0.5 R&F 2777 HK N 24.60 13.53 4.6 0.9 Accumulate property stocks on dips before Christmas SUNAC 1918 HK O 14.10 7.05 2.6 0.6 and New Year, and expect a strong rebound in 1Q14 SZ Investment 604 HK O 9.30 4.19 5.6 0.6 based on (1) relaxed credit conditions at the beginning of * CCBIS ratings: O = Outperform; N = Neutral; U = Underperform the year due to banks resetting loan quotas; (2) further Source: Bloomberg, Company data, CCBIS estimates property curbs less likely due to weaker year-on-year GDP growth in 1Q14F and quarter-on-quarter GDP growth from 100-city pricing index updated for November by 3Q13 to 4Q13F; (3) cheaper valuations and more buying city tiers opportunities as China property stocks continue to RMB/sm 28,000 2.7% underperform until the end of 2013F after the Third Plenary 2.4% 24,000 2.1% meetings. 1.8% 20,000 1.5% 1.2% 16,000 0.9% Action. Our top picks within the sector are COLI (688 HK, 0.6% 12,000 Outperform), Shimao Property (813 HK, Outperform), 0.3% 8,000 0.0% Greentown China (3900 HK, Outperform) and Shenzhen (0.3)% 4,000 (0.6)% Investment (604 HK, Outperform). We have noticed (0.9)% investors shied away from Country Garden (2007 HK, 0 (1.2)% Neutral) and other property outperformers of 2013. It is no 1-Jul-10 1-Jul-11 1-Jul-12 1-Jul-13 1-Oct-10 1-Apr-11 1-Oct-11 1-Apr-12 1-Oct-12 1-Apr-13 1-Oct-13 1-Jun-10 1-Jan-11 1-Jun-11 1-Jan-12 1-Jun-12 1-Jan-13 1-Jun-13 1-Mar-11 1-Mar-12 1-Mar-13 1-Feb-11 1-Feb-12 1-Feb-13 1-Nov-10 1-Dec-10 1-Nov-11 1-Dec-11 1-Nov-12 1-Dec-12 1-Nov-13 1-Aug-10 1-Sep-10 1-Aug-11 1-Sep-11 1-Aug-12 1-Sep-12 1-Aug-13 1-Sep-13 1-May-11 1-May-12 1-May-13 surprise when names like Agile Property (3383 HK, Tier-1 cities (LHS) Tier-2 and -3 cities (LHS) Tier-1 cities: MoM (RHS) Tier-2 and -3 cities: MoM (RHS) Underperform) and other developers, in danger of missing Source: CREIS, CCBIS estimates their annual sales targets, are also being avoided. For risk-averse investors, we advise either sticking with COLI to simply gain sector exposure in coming months, or trading the pair of Shimao and Country Garden (long/short), as the two tend to move along the same pace at a similar beta. We prefer Shimao for a possible higher-than-expected sales target in 2014, with stronger pricing powers across the YRD and Fujian regions. Risk. Continuing rapid increases in housing prices will trigger further price curbing policies, especially in key cities; oversupplied commercial space in many tier-2 and -3 cities Edison Bian further undermines the ROEs of major commercial property (852) 2532 6123 players. [email protected] Please read the analyst certification and other important disclosures on last page China Property Investment Update 19 December 2013 Country Garden investor briefing updates Country Garden has contracted a gross amount of RMB96.7b for the first 11 months of 2013. The company hinted on a possible RMB130b sales target next year, based on 25-30% YoY growth. ASPs have remained higher year-to-date to RMB6,604 from 2012 average of RMB6,231, pointing to a potentially higher FY13 margin. Its flagship Malaysian project, launched in August, has recorded RMB6b contracted sales. The company plans to build a commercial centre with a GFA 6.5ksm in 2014. The street is mainly concerned with the inventory pressure on Country Garden. As at end of 3Q13, unsold and completed GFA totalled 3.04m sm, down from 3.52m sm as at end of 2012. Country Garden has acquired 22m sm new land bank in total at RMB16.3b, with an average cost of only RMB730 psm. Interestingly, Country Garden is going to increase its investment overseas. The company targets a 30/50% land banking contribution within five/ten years. Country Garden recently acquired a new site in Australia and have yet to complete its Malaysian projects. We maintain our target price and rating on Country Garden, and remain our cautious view towards overseas land banking. We advise switching to other names with cheaper valuations and stronger pricing powers such as Greentown China and Shimao. Greentown enters into agreement with Wharf Group on Hangzhou site On 18 December 2013, Greentown China succeeded bidding land from the Xiaoshan branch of Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of Land Resources (杭州市國土資源局蕭山分 局) at a land consideration of RMB2,576m. The company also announced that it will enter into framework agreement with Wharf Holdings (4 HK, Not Rated), pursuant to which Greentown and Wharf will jointly develop the land into residential properties on a 50:50 ownership basis. The 70,227 sm of land is located in the Xiao Shan district of Hangzhou, Zhejiang. The estimated total residential gross floor area to be developed is about 189,613 sm with a floor area ratio of 2.7. Our take For one of our top picks for 2014, Greentown did not accumulate much land in 2013. Instead it expanded its footprint mainly through working with SUNAC (1918 HK, Outperform). The Wharf JV also demonstrated that Greentown has turned cautious towards land banking and relies on its extensive external relationships to help solidify its market position in the key cities of PRD region. We like this approach as we view higher returns on equity being generated out of a higher operating leverage. 2 China Property Investment Update 19 December 2013 Sector valuations China property sector ratings and valuations Market Closing Current NAV Target Net gearing Stock cap price* NAV discount CCBIS price Upside as at 1H13 Equity P/E (x) P/B (x) Yield (%) Company code (HK$b) (HK$) (HK$) (%) rating (HK$) (%) (%) beta 2013F 2014F 2014F 2014F Agile 3383 HK 28.6 8.31 17.60 (52.8) Underperform 7.92 (4.7) 72.4 1.19 4.1 3.6 0.6 5.8 COLI 688 HK 186.3 22.80 33.20 (31.3) Outperform 29.88 31.1 14.9 1.21 9.4 7.6 1.5 2.1 Country Garden 2007 HK 91.4 4.95 7.60 (34.9) Neutral 5.70 15.2 60.1 1.24 8.4 7.0 1.4 5.3 CR Land 1109 HK 116.1 19.92 32.20 (38.1) Outperform 27.37 37.4 42.6 1.20 12.9 10.3 1.3 2.9 Greentown 3900 HK 26.2 12.16 23.60 (48.5) Outperform 17.70 45.6 49.5 1.28 3.3 2.7 0.6 7.2 Shimao 813 HK 63.1 18.18 28.20 (35.5) Outperform 23.97 31.8 71.0 1.08 7.8 6.3 1.1 4.8 Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK 36.0 4.95 7.80 (36.5) Neutral 5.07 2.4 53.8 1.28 9.2 7.9 0.6 4.1 KWG 1813 HK 12.5 4.31 11.60 (62.8) Outperform 6.96 61.5 72.2 1.39 4.0 3.2 0.5 6.2 R&F 2777 HK 37.3 11.58 24.60 (52.9) Neutral 13.53 16.8 100.9 1.15 5.5 4.6 0.9 8.5 SUNAC 1918 HK 16.0 4.81 14.10 (65.9) Outperform 7.05 46.6 71.8 1.11 3.3 2.6 0.6 3.9 SZ Investment 604 HK 15.7 2.92 9.30 (68.6) Outperform 4.19 43.3 57.3 1.01 5.4 5.6 0.6 5.5 Coverage average (48.0) 29.7 60.6 6.7 5.6 0.9 5.1 * Price as at close on 18 December 2013 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CCBIS estimates Sector comparables Stock Market cap Closing price Net gearing as at Equity P/E (x) P/B (x) Yield (%) Company code (HK$b) (local currency) 1H FY13 (%) beta 2013F 2014F 2014F 2014F Vanke 000002 CH 92.8 8.26 29.6 0.87 4.7 3.9 0.9 3.0 Longfor 960 HK 59.9 11.00 44.4 1.03 7.3 6.3 1.3 2.6 Evergrande 3333 HK 48.6 3.03 101.9 1.32 4.4 3.8 0.8 6.1 Hopson 754 HK 19.8 8.83 74.3 1.61 5.1 3.1 0.3 0.3 Poly Property 119 HK 15.6 4.28 92.5 1.40 4.4 3.7 0.4 6.1 Kaisa 1638 HK 11.3 2.30 71.2 1.08 4.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 Future Land 1030 HK 5.2 0.92 149.1 1.60 4.4 3.4 0.6 6.9 CIFI 884 HK 9.1 1.51 67.4 1.60 4.8 3.5 0.9 4.7 Sector averages (covered and comparables) 68.3 5.9 4.9 0.8 4.5 * Price as at close on 18 December 2013 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CCBIS estimates 3 China Property Investment Update 19 December 2013 Property sales tracker China property – monthly contracted sales updates Stock Contracted sales (RMB b) Company code YTD FY12A achieved FY13F target estimated YTD growth (%) FY13 % achieved Data up to Coverage Agile 3383 HK 33.9 33.0 42.0 25.4 80.7 November COLI* 688 HK 131.8 111.5 120.0 20.8 109.8 November Country Garden 2007 HK 96.7 47.6 62.0 129.7 156.0 November CR Land 1109 HK 62.4 52.2 57.0 35.6 109.5 November Greentown 3900 HK 57.6 54.7 55.0 26.6 104.7 November Shimao 813 HK 61.3 47.0 55.0 45.0 111.5 November Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK 33.5 31.1 35.0 15.0 95.7 November KWG 1813 HK 14.9 12.2 16.0 33.0 92.9 November R&F 2777 HK 37.5 32.2 42.0 21.0 89.3 November SUNAC 1918 HK 51.4 31.6 45.0 68.1 114.2 November SZ Investment 604 HK 8.8 6.1 9.0 33.0 97.8 November Sector comparables Vanke 000002 CH 159.9 141.2 180.0 25.7 88.8 November Longfor 960 HK 44.8 40.1 46.0 25.0 97.4 November Evergrande 3333 HK 98.4 92.3 100.0
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